Clamoring about Free Throws

[LordCovington33]

Interesting - I got the exact opposite from watching large samples of footage. I've come away shocked at how much time a 7 foot 270+ lb player (Embiid) spends on the floor. He either has some massive balance issues (lack of core strength? equilibrium issues?) or he just flops a lot. If it's the latter, kudos to him for fooling the refs. If it's the former, there's ways to solve balance issues.

I mean, the fact that this was a shooting foul tells you all you need to know...they baby this man

https://imgur.com/a/jBKdb9v

We've seen Embiid play dominant basketball for stretches without hunting for free throws, but I don't think he's built that way to do it for a full season - he gets a lot of breaks at the free throw line.

Notice how the years he averaged the most FTA, he also averaged the most MPG? He gets a ~1 minute break each time he gets to the line.

Seen that video link many times on these boards as if that is what happens very regularly. Obviously that’s not a foul. However, for every questionable call, there are a dozen or more legitimate ones. This video was from a Knicks game.

https://youtu.be/9IS6o2azp-8

2 flops near the end, but he had his feet firmly planted on the floor for the rest.

He dominates the paint due to his size and agility, and defenders are often forced to reach in. That’s the only way to stop him from getting an easy bucket. On other occasions, he baits the opposing center to foul due to his BBIQ. But they are fouls nonetheless. Embiid averages 11.8 FTA, and Giannis 11.4 FTA. The only reason Embiid gets all the heat is because he is a superior FT shooter.

Obviously, it's all selective.

But many of those types of plays do not seem to end up as free throw opportunities for other players.

Is that because they're not as good at selling them? Because they haven't earned that benefit of the doubt yet? Something something he's just too big? Or something else?

A big difference between Embiid 2021-22 and years gone by is his footwork - he looks lighter. He has become a lot more agile. Watch his footwork inside the paint. Combined with his strength, high BBIQ and improved mid-range game, there is a lot of obvious reaching and he is very good at baiting fouls (like fake pumps outside the paint). He’s been very successful at the latter with slow-footed centered who are fooled into going early. He does flop sometimes, but I think it’s an exaggerated narrative. Most of the time, he lands the fouls with both feet on the floor.
About the other players, I am not sure why and wonder if it is a big problem. Embiid’s skill set is very unique. Apples and oranges. Just like Jokic’s. Two of the best centers in a very long time, who excel at different things.

[dk1115]

What's the rate of free throws per layup/drive compared to 10 years back?

[granger05]

I assumed that per possession numbers would make this look stupid, but those numbers have been declining as well.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_stats_per_poss.html

I guess you could get enterprising and look at the FTA / (FGA - 3PA). There's already a column for FTA/FGA and that is near an all-time low, but removing the long ball would be an interesting question.

[Bornstellar]

Teams are taking like 40% of the shots from three, so it's not surprising the attempts per game have gone down. That doesn't mean officiating has gotten better though. I'm curious how close those numbers are to say, 20 years ago

[Harry Garris]

The 3pt rate has tripled and the free throws have gone down about 10% lol

Yes - but attempts at the rim haven't gone down much. It's primarily mid range shots that have been replaced with 3s. Neither of those are plays that generate free throws at a high rate. I'd have to look it up but my assumption is that the rate of fouls drawn at the rim is close to what it's always been.

[granger05]

You can export that sheet from my link so this wasn't hard. Data only goes back to 73-74. This is FTA/(FGA-3PA) which would be FTA/2PA. The last couple seasons are seventh and eighth all-time.

Rank FTA/2PA Season▲
1 0.42 2005-06
2 0.42 2006-07
3 0.42 2019-20
4 0.41 1994-95
5 0.41 1995-96
6 0.41 1996-97
7 0.41 2020-21
8 0.41 2021-22
9 0.4 1998-99
10 0.4 2004-05
11 0.4 2016-17
12 0.4 2018-19
13 0.39 1997-98
14 0.39 2007-08
15 0.39 2008-09
16 0.39 2009-10
17 0.39 2010-11
18 0.39 2015-16
19 0.38 2013-14
20 0.38 2017-18
21 0.37 1999-00
22 0.37 2000-01
23 0.37 2002-03
24 0.37 2003-04
25 0.37 2014-15
26 0.36 1986-87
27 0.36 1992-93
28 0.36 1993-94
29 0.36 2001-02
30 0.36 2011-12
31 0.36 2012-13
32 0.35 1985-86
33 0.35 1987-88
34 0.35 1988-89
35 0.35 1989-90
36 0.35 1990-91
37 0.34 1983-84
38 0.34 1984-85
39 0.33 1980-81
40 0.33 1981-82
41 0.33 1991-92
42 0.32 1979-80
43 0.32 1982-83
44 0.31 1977-78
45 0.31 1978-79
46 0.3 1976-77
47 0.29 1975-76
48 0.28 1974-75
49 0.27 1973-74

[KembaWalker]

The 3pt rate has tripled and the free throws have gone down about 10% lol

Yes - but attempts at the rim haven't gone down much. It's primarily mid range shots that have been replaced with 3s. Neither of those are plays that generate free throws at a high rate. I'd have to look it up but my assumption is that the rate of fouls drawn at the rim is close to what it's always been.

Yes but now all the players are spaced out to the 3pt line on these same drives to the basket. A shot in the paint today isn't facing a center, a power forward and a small forward all in the paint today. You're facing maybe a center and many of these teams are rolling without even that nowadays. Shots in the paint should logically be drawing no where near the free throw rate they did in the past, and maybe they aren't idk. Makes sense that players have had to invent all these strategies to get whistles

[sp6r=underrated]

The 3pt rate has tripled and the free throws have gone down about 10% lol

Exactly it should have plummeted

[falcolombardi]

The 3pt rate has tripled and the free throws have gone down about 10% lol

Exactly it should have plummeted

it did

remember that the increase in 3 point jumpers has mostly came at the expense of 2 point jumpers

3's have not reduced shots in the paint as much as they have reduced midrange shots wjich are also low free throw shots

[og15]

You can export that sheet from my link so this wasn't hard. Data only goes back to 73-74. This is FTA/(FGA-3PA) which would be FTA/2PA. The last couple seasons are seventh and eighth all-time.

Rank FTA/2PA Season▲
1 0.42 2005-06
2 0.42 2006-07
3 0.42 2019-20
4 0.41 1994-95
5 0.41 1995-96
6 0.41 1996-97
7 0.41 2020-21
8 0.41 2021-22
9 0.4 1998-99
10 0.4 2004-05
11 0.4 2016-17
12 0.4 2018-19
13 0.39 1997-98
14 0.39 2007-08
15 0.39 2008-09
16 0.39 2009-10
17 0.39 2010-11
18 0.39 2015-16
19 0.38 2013-14
20 0.38 2017-18
21 0.37 1999-00
22 0.37 2000-01
23 0.37 2002-03
24 0.37 2003-04
25 0.37 2014-15
26 0.36 1986-87
27 0.36 1992-93
28 0.36 1993-94
29 0.36 2001-02
30 0.36 2011-12
31 0.36 2012-13
32 0.35 1985-86
33 0.35 1987-88
34 0.35 1988-89
35 0.35 1989-90
36 0.35 1990-91
37 0.34 1983-84
38 0.34 1984-85
39 0.33 1980-81
40 0.33 1981-82
41 0.33 1991-92
42 0.32 1979-80
43 0.32 1982-83
44 0.31 1977-78
45 0.31 1978-79
46 0.3 1976-77
47 0.29 1975-76
48 0.28 1974-75
49 0.27 1973-74

2PT shots are not shots in the paint though. This method basically assumes all two point shots are made equal in foul draw ability and also says that there's a vast difference in foul draw when taking a 20 foot jumpshot and a 3PT shot, but there isn't.

This just gives a bias towards seasons where there was no 3PT shot or few were taken, but it's not giving us accurate data or representation of actual date of foul calls on plays that are likely to draw fouls.

[KembaWalker]

As someone who grew up watching teams try to drive on Hakeem, Thorpe, Horry or Robinson Duncan or Shaq/Horace Grant, Mourning and Johnson etc it's just a little jarring to go from that to watching a behemoth like Joel Embiid doing some weird spin move into Kelly Oubre Jr 15 feet from the basket and go sprawling to the floor for his 20th free throw of the game lol.

[og15]

The 3pt rate has tripled and the free throws have gone down about 10% lol

Exactly it should have plummeted

Have to take different factors into account. For example, you can earn more FTA on missed 3PT jumpshots when fouled than missed two point jumpshots when fouled, so that one extra FTA every once in a while when shooting more three's could actually increase the rate from longer shots (does it, I don't know).

According to many people, more technical and flagrant fouls are called (I haven't checked this data), and those count as FTA without any foul drawing move required. So that can potentially increase the FTA/G slightly.

The continuation rule was adjusted, which made it more confusing for a lot of people including the officials sometimes since therr were more intricacies, but that is also a factor, that would have increased FTA in the past except for bonus where instead of and1 you shoot two FTA.
https://official.nba.com/inside-the-rulebook-continuation/

Even if you are getting a 0.3 FTA increase from some of these other things, it adds up.

97-98, 46.4% of FGA inside 10 feet, 37.2% of FGA outside 16 feet, FTr is .330

99-00, 44.4% of FGA inside 10 feet, 39.5% of FGA are outside 16 feet, FTr is .308

21-22, 43.5% of FGA inside 10 feet, 47% of FGA are outside 16 feet, FTr is .248

So the biggest gain from those two seasons, just as an example as I'm not out here checking all the seasons is more shots from 10-16 feet.

You still have a lot of action going on in the paint, okay, cool, you could theoretically get a few more FTA overall from being fouled on three's vs two point jumpers (or the same if rate of fouls is lower but average reward is higher), and there could theoretically be more flagrant/techs called. Then add rule changes too, and the decrease doesn't seem like it is that clear to determine or that it should have decreased more. I don't watch a ton of games and think, "there should have only been 15 FTA".

[og15]

As someone who grew up watching teams try to drive on Hakeem, Thorpe, Horry or Robinson Duncan or Shaq/Horace Grant, Mourning and Johnson etc it's just a little jarring to go from that to watching a behemoth like Joel Embiid doing some weird spin move into Kelly Oubre Jr 15 feet from the basket and go sprawling to the floor for his 20th free throw of the game lol.

Embiid is from the Corey Maggette and Harden school of foul drawing

[Rendei]

In 2 cases (Butler/LeBron, Jokic/Embiid) I watched large samples of footage juxtaposed to each other to get a sense for how they were officiated. In both cases I was completely unmoved.

Interesting - I got the exact opposite from watching large samples of footage. I've come away shocked at how much time a 7 foot 270+ lb player (Embiid) spends on the floor. He either has some massive balance issues (lack of core strength? equilibrium issues?) or he just flops a lot. If it's the latter, kudos to him for fooling the refs. If it's the former, there's ways to solve balance issues.

I mean, the fact that this was a shooting foul tells you all you need to know...they baby this man

https://imgur.com/a/jBKdb9v

We've seen Embiid play dominant basketball for stretches without hunting for free throws, but I don't think he's built that way to do it for a full season - he gets a lot of breaks at the free throw line.

Notice how the years he averaged the most FTA, he also averaged the most MPG? He gets a ~1 minute break each time he gets to the line.

Seen that video link many times on these boards as if that is what happens very regularly. Obviously that’s not a foul. However, for every questionable call, there are a dozen or more legitimate ones. This video was from a Knicks game.

https://youtu.be/9IS6o2azp-8

2 flops near the end, but he had his feet firmly planted on the floor for the rest.

He dominates the paint due to his size and agility, and defenders are often forced to reach in. That’s the only way to stop him from getting an easy bucket. On other occasions, he baits the opposing center to foul due to his BBIQ. But they are fouls nonetheless. Embiid averages 11.8 FTA, and Giannis 11.4 FTA. The only reason Embiid gets all the heat is because he is a superior FT shooter.

Embiid gets all the heat because he flops a lot. He takes a lot of legitimate fouls, sure. But he also flops a lot. Even the video you linked had to be qualified with "2 flops, but the rest!" There isn't a lot of video of Giannis flopping.

[ForeverTFC]

You can export that sheet from my link so this wasn't hard. Data only goes back to 73-74. This is FTA/(FGA-3PA) which would be FTA/2PA. The last couple seasons are seventh and eighth all-time.

Rank FTA/2PA Season▲
1 0.42 2005-06
2 0.42 2006-07
3 0.42 2019-20
4 0.41 1994-95
5 0.41 1995-96
6 0.41 1996-97
7 0.41 2020-21
8 0.41 2021-22
9 0.4 1998-99
10 0.4 2004-05
11 0.4 2016-17
12 0.4 2018-19
13 0.39 1997-98
14 0.39 2007-08
15 0.39 2008-09
16 0.39 2009-10
17 0.39 2010-11
18 0.39 2015-16
19 0.38 2013-14
20 0.38 2017-18
21 0.37 1999-00
22 0.37 2000-01
23 0.37 2002-03
24 0.37 2003-04
25 0.37 2014-15
26 0.36 1986-87
27 0.36 1992-93
28 0.36 1993-94
29 0.36 2001-02
30 0.36 2011-12
31 0.36 2012-13
32 0.35 1985-86
33 0.35 1987-88
34 0.35 1988-89
35 0.35 1989-90
36 0.35 1990-91
37 0.34 1983-84
38 0.34 1984-85
39 0.33 1980-81
40 0.33 1981-82
41 0.33 1991-92
42 0.32 1979-80
43 0.32 1982-83
44 0.31 1977-78
45 0.31 1978-79
46 0.3 1976-77
47 0.29 1975-76
48 0.28 1974-75
49 0.27 1973-74

This is very misleading. You've removed the shots that are unlikely to get fouled from the current era while keeping in the shots that aren't likely to get fouled from previous eras.

[ForeverTFC]

In the history of the NBA dating back to 1947, the 3 lowest seasons in terms of average FTA were:

3. 2021-2022 (21.9)
2. 2020-2021 (21.8)
1. 2017-2018 (21.7)

This number has been trending downward pretty much from the beginning. My guess is somebody will respond "the problem isn't as much the amount of FTs as it is favoritism toward certain players" but I have never seen compelling evidence supporting this favoritism. In 2 cases (Butler/LeBron, Jokic/Embiid) I watched large samples of footage juxtaposed to each other to get a sense for how they were officiated. In both cases I was completely unmoved. Everybody has access to the footage on the NBA stat pages so I challenge you to conduct your own research if you're so inclined. Watching all field goal attempts sequentially is a pretty good way of doing it in my experience.

Anyway my main point is that a lot of you are full of **** when it comes to this conversation and I patiently await the day you convince me otherwise. I'm a very open minded person.

I've been arguing this fact for a long time and folks will never agree, regardless of the data presented.

With that said: certain players predicate their game on drawing fouls, explicitly making moves to draw fouls. If you compare their shot charts and point distribution to others in their tier in various eras, they have a higher free throw rate. So while as a whole we don't have this FT problem everyone loves to talk about, we do have it with a subsection of players. Unfortunately, 2 of them play in Philly.

[GeorgeMarcus]

With the incredible amount of 3 point shooting these days, this is a very simplistic view.

The 3pt rate has tripled and the free throws have gone down about 10% lol

As others have mentioned, those shots use to be midrange jumpers and back to the basket post-ups. The pro "analytics" people put a lot of emphasis on getting to the basket, which is a big reason spacing has become so important

[GeorgeMarcus]

Hmmmm. Very compelling objective argument from the OP.

I just want to thank him for his services. After all, not everybody is willing to "watch large samples of footage juxtaposed to each other to get a sense for how they were officiated" like the OP very clearly did and in the most objective manner possible.

You cheeky bastard. That's sort of the opposite I was going for hence the part about "this research is available to all of us". Basically don't take my word for it, if the arguments for favoritism and such are out there then it's very easy to compile the research. Certainly isolated clips of bad calls, etc doesn't do the trick

[GeorgeMarcus]

In 2 cases (Butler/LeBron, Jokic/Embiid) I watched large samples of footage juxtaposed to each other to get a sense for how they were officiated. In both cases I was completely unmoved.

Interesting - I got the exact opposite from watching large samples of footage. I've come away shocked at how much time a 7 foot 270+ lb player (Embiid) spends on the floor. He either has some massive balance issues (lack of core strength? equilibrium issues?) or he just flops a lot. If it's the latter, kudos to him for fooling the refs. If it's the former, there's ways to solve balance issues.

I mean, the fact that this was a shooting foul tells you all you need to know...they baby this man

https://imgur.com/a/jBKdb9v

We've seen Embiid play dominant basketball for stretches without hunting for free throws, but I don't think he's built that way to do it for a full season - he gets a lot of breaks at the free throw line.

Notice how the years he averaged the most FTA, he also averaged the most MPG? He gets a ~1 minute break each time he gets to the line.

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

It's easy to find isolated clips to support any argument you want to support. And that **** about getting breaks is nonsense lol come on man

[GeorgeMarcus]

In the history of the NBA dating back to 1947, the 3 lowest seasons in terms of average FTA were:

3. 2021-2022 (21.9)
2. 2020-2021 (21.8)
1. 2017-2018 (21.7)

This number has been trending downward pretty much from the beginning. My guess is somebody will respond "the problem isn't as much the amount of FTs as it is favoritism toward certain players" but I have never seen compelling evidence supporting this favoritism. In 2 cases (Butler/LeBron, Jokic/Embiid) I watched large samples of footage juxtaposed to each other to get a sense for how they were officiated. In both cases I was completely unmoved. Everybody has access to the footage on the NBA stat pages so I challenge you to conduct your own research if you're so inclined. Watching all field goal attempts sequentially is a pretty good way of doing it in my experience.

Anyway my main point is that a lot of you are full of **** when it comes to this conversation and I patiently await the day you convince me otherwise. I'm a very open minded person.

Well, since you asked, this is not about favoritism for this or that player this is about the way Jokic is officiated. First article is from Jokic's 3rd year 2017-2018. In this article you could see Denver is 3rd on the list of teams with the most bad call against them. Jokic is 7the on the list of players that were bad officiated in last 2 mins of close games. What is interesting here is that in these situations referees usually "swallow their whistle's" and don't call anything. Except in Jokic's case. They called more bad calls against him then against other 28 teams overal.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-nba-team-is-wronged-by-the-refs-the-most/

The second article is from Jokic's MVP season. I'm Nuggets fan I'm biased and I can't be objective, but if other smarth people say something who am I to oppose.

https://thef5.substack.com/p/youd-complain-too?s=r

I admire your objectivity as I hope you do mine, friend

I'd have to see the following years to make a judgement on Jokic but my larger point is to simmer down the notion that Embiid gets a soft whistle