Offseason Plan

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I don't care what anybody says... this team can win 50 games next season if they make the right moves in the off season

Keep a core of 6, 7, or 8 players from this year's team; and bring in 8, 7, or 6 players that are collectively better

Then, see what your record is by the end of next season.

I would imagine if you keep Beal you end up only retaining about 6 players... once you get through trading and releasing everybody else. Reload on minimum contract veterans and rookie deals especially 2nd rounders and undrafted free agents

I prefer the do not keep Bradley option and that way you retain 8 players that I've mentioned above

[payitforward]

I think that at least one maybe two of KCP, Kuzma & Rui will be gone next year. In return for, or at least replaced by, younger players.

In particular, even with Brad re-signing, I think we'll try to acquire at least one strong young prospect at SG. After all, his new contract will give him options out. Or, we may decide it's time to trade him.

But even if no such situation arises, Brad is entering his 11th season, he has just had a down year, he's coming off an injury, & he has been asked to be a minutes-ironman for many many seasons, meaning that he's already logged 22,500 NBA minutes. Out of the 2012 draft, I believe only Harrison Barnes & Lillard have played more minutes in their career than Beal.* It would be foolish not to have a young guy with a lot of potential at the 2.

That's not Kispert, who is better off as a 3 I believe, nor KCP who isn't young.

Neither the need for that guy, nor the lack of a young player at PG, guarantees it'll go that way, but we would have good reason to trade one or more of the guys I mentioned above.


*Looking that up, btw, I discovered that Westbrook is at 35,434 minutes, Chris Paul's played 39,712 minutes, & Lebron has logged a mind-blowing 51,832 minutes of NBA play!

[FAH1223]

As to Monte Morris, I'm sure you remember that I was the one -- over & over -- who called for us to find a way to get him in the 2017 draft. I thought he was pretty much a lock to be a very good NBA player.

I'm sure you also remember where Morris was picked, right? At #51 -- waaaaay down where people are certain that there aren't any good players.

& I'm also sure you remember that draft clearly & are aware that we had a pick in that range, & what number it was? It was #52, just one slot too low to grab Monte Morris -- not that Ernie would have had the good sense to do so.

Do you also remember what we did w/ that #52 pick we had? I do. We traded it to NO for Tim Frazier -- a back up point guard!

Yup. Wizards just can never make quality selections in the 2nd round though. Isaiah Todd is a bust. Herb Jones is balling for NOLA right on national TV. ARGH.

Are you saying you don't think he'll just take the BPA? Or that you're pretty sure the BPA will be "one of those wings?"

Wouldn't you take Tari Eason over at least some of "those wings?"

I got no clue but at 10, I think one of those wings will be there. BuT Eason's athleticism and ability to guard (yeah I know he guarded 4s and 5s at LSU..) shows up and he was productive.

I'm warming up to Dyson Daniels cause he's grown to 6'8'' in shoes and he is a dog defensively too.

You ignore the fact that we will have a pick in the 50s. To be expected, I guess. After all, it's not like there any good players down in that region, right? Certainly no one as good as Monte Morris!

There'll be good players there!

Obviously, you don't think it'll be Thomas Bryant, or you'd have mentioned him along w/ Sato & Gill. Am I right?

I'll be surprised if Bryant isn't back.

I don't think Bryant will be back. He'll probably go somewhere where he can get regular minutes. Obviously keeping him in the inevitable case that Porzingis misses games would be wise.

Would you applaud that off season?

If productive personnel are brought in, yes of course!

I'm guessing Tommy will do something significant by way of a trade -- tho, to tell the truth, I don't have any sense of what it will be or could be!

I just hope it doesn't involve our lotto pick.

[gambitx777]

I think they are gonna take a big swing at PG. I'm telling you ! I would not be shocked if we picked up both John Wall and Russ off of the buy out heep. I can see the spin now, two former all stars and one an MVP, we won with both of them now what can we do with both. A press conference with both "yeah we talked it out with both they are ready to win the ring with 3 of the best guard in the league of the last blah blah blah". I honestly think it might not be a terrible idea try and retread some old glory and play PG by committee.

But, if we miss out on that, I don't see any amazing options on the table for a starting point guard unless we draft one. Morris or Jones do not excite me and seem like EG level stop gaps.

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[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I think that at least one maybe two of KCP, Kuzma & Rui will be gone next year. In return for, or at least replaced by, younger players.

In particular, even with Brad re-signing, I think we'll try to acquire at least one strong young prospect at SG. After all, his new contract will give him options out. Or, we may decide it's time to trade him.

But even if no such situation arises, Brad is entering his 11th season, he has just had a down year, he's coming off an injury, & he has been asked to be a minutes-ironman for many many seasons, meaning that he's already logged 22,500 NBA minutes. Out of the 2012 draft, I believe only Harrison Barnes & Lillard have played more minutes in their career than Beal.* It would be foolish not to have a young guy with a lot of potential at the 2.

That's not Kispert, who is better off as a 3 I believe, nor KCP who isn't young.

Neither the need for that guy, nor the lack of a young player at PG, guarantees it'll go that way, but we would have good reason to trade one or more of the guys I mentioned above.


*Looking that up, btw, I discovered that Westbrook is at 35,434 minutes, Chris Paul's played 39,712 minutes, & Lebron has logged a mind-blowing 51,832 minutes of NBA play!

If Bradley is retained at a discount price, something team-friendly and LESS than supermax it would be nice to add Victor Oadipo as a 6th man.

Or, if Bradley is traded straight up, Donovan Mitchell could be an upgrade. So could Shai Gilgeous Alexander.

I'm convinced a round two selection SG can back up Kispert. Isaiah Mosely or IF THE WIZARDS draft a SG in round 1; then Beal can walk.

[dobrojim]

I hear there are rumors of bringing Wall back. I'm not sure what to think of that.
The NBA has become ever more focused on shot making, never a particular strength of Wall's.
Obviously we're not paying him $40M.

[Frichuela]

I hear there are rumors of bringing Wall back. I'm not sure what to think of that.
The NBA has become ever more focused on shot making, never a particular strength of Wall's.
Obviously we're not paying him $40M.

Not sure 1) in what shape Wall is and more importantly 2) if Terd "good character" Leonsis would approve it..

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I hear there are rumors of bringing Wall back. I'm not sure what to think of that.
The NBA has become ever more focused on shot making, never a particular strength of Wall's.
Obviously we're not paying him $40M.

People need to say what we're thinking and I hope I could talk to a guy like John wall even though I don't think he would listen

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[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

I hear there are rumors of bringing Wall back. I'm not sure what to think of that.
The NBA has become ever more focused on shot making, never a particular strength of Wall's.
Obviously we're not paying him $40M.

Not sure 1) in what shape Wall is and more importantly 2) if Terd "good character" Leonsis would approve it..

I got your good character right here and I know you're right.

Egos...no way Ted wants to be shown up IMO.

Character is an issue in a way. John "clowned" by throwing sets *if that's what he did PUBLICLY " but to me it's SUBJECTIVE and CULTURE specific...

[Dark Faze]

Terd would not cut LaMelo after his most recent stunt.

[payitforward]

No... we're not bringing back John Wall, & we're not bringing back Russell Westbrook. People aren't stupid. Either move would signal a completely cynical franchise & one with no interest whatever in ever building a winner.

I don't know what to make of the discussion in this thread. I guess people just think there is no way at all to build a winning NBA team.

[FAH1223]

Read on Twitter

The Wizards, given their optimistic media appearances — and supported by The Official Team Talking Points Mouthpieces — double-down next season unless Beal asks for a trade. Leaving aside whether this is a smart strategic decision for the organization, what are there chances of being good? The popular narrative (one being pushed by team) is that they’re a point guard away. Chris Miller on NBC Sports Washington summarized that sentiment in a segment where he wondered if the Wizards could acquire one of four PGs theoretically available this summer.

It would be nice for them if the “PG away” story was correct, but Wizards are further away than that. To illustrate, I used my PPA metric (full season results for the Wizards are below. Full league results are here.) and slotted each of the team’s rotation players against the league average for that slot.

Think of it like this: with a 208 PPA, Chris Paul was the Phoenix Suns most productive player. Second: Devin Booker with a 169. Third: DeAndre Ayton. Then Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, JaVale McGee, Jae Crowder, Cam Payne, Torrey Craig, and Landry Shamet — a 10-man rotation.

Here’s what the average PPA looks like for each production spot across the NBA:

175
150
130
120
110
100
95
85
80
70
65
55

Phoenix is literally better than average at each stop in the rotation. Paul’s 208 is significantly above average for a 1st man. Booker would be a slightly below-average 1, but he’s a terrific 2. Ayton — their 3rd man — is more productive than the average 2nd man. Bridges, at 139, outproduces the average 3rd man, and he’s their 4th. And so on.

This is where the Wizards players sit in the NBA’s production hierarchy:

Kristaps Porzingis — 172 PPA (with both Dallas and Washington) — a 1- or 2+.
Daniel Gafford — 139 — 3
Bradley Beal — 115 — 4/5
Tomas Satoransky (Wizards only) — 112 — 5 (for the full season, Satoransky’s PPA was 65, which is an 11th man)
Kyle Kuzma — 108 — 5/6
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope — 101 — 6
Rui Hachimura — 97 — 7
Corey Kispert — 87 — 8
Ish Smith (Wizards only) — 86 — 8 (full season: 62 — 11/12)
Anthony Gill — 78 — 9
Deni Avdija — 69 — 10
Raul Neto finished with a 73 PPA — the level of a 10th man. Thomas Bryant scored an 84 — 8th man.

Gafford is productive when he gets minutes. This season, the Wizards viewed him as an 18-20 minutes per game player — more like an 8/9, though his production could change that for the future. It’s conceivable that he could find himself back in the starting lineup with Porzingis playing PF, as he did in Dallas. More likely, Gafford will come off the bench and play some minutes with Porzingis.

Looking forward, it’s at least semi-reasonable to think Beal will get back to at least a 140-150 level PPA. His career peak at this point is a 160 PPA in 2019-20. If he does, the Wizards would have two very good starters with him and Porzingis (assuming, of course that Porzingis can stay healthy).

They don’t really have third, fourth and fifth starters, though. Kuzma and KCP can start, but both would be in their best role coming off the bench. Figuring normal progress from their young players, the Wizards are loaded with tail-end of the rotation guys and short on starter-quality players.

The rotation would look something like:

Porzingis
Beal
???
???
???
Kuzma, KCP
Gafford, Hachimura
Kispert
Satoransky, Avdija

Kuzma and KCP are both at an age where significant improvement is unlikely. Gafford, Kispert, Hachimura and Avdija are all candidates to make a leap. Keep in mind: all but Kispert were candidates for the same in 2021-22, and they made incremental improvements. Hachimura’s PPA went up 22 points from last season, which is good...but his score this season was just 2 points higher than his rookie year.

Avdija’s PPA went up 21 points, which is just about the average for his age and experience. Want to make your stomach lurch? Click this link to see a comparison of the second seasons for Avdija and a former Wizards player. Most Wizards fans would say Avdija is better than this guy. Second season to second season, the numbers are eerily similar...except the other guy was better overall.

[9 and 20]

I hear there are rumors of bringing Wall back. I'm not sure what to think of that.
The NBA has become ever more focused on shot making, never a particular strength of Wall's.
Obviously we're not paying him $40M.

Not sure 1) in what shape Wall is and more importantly 2) if Terd "good character" Leonsis would approve it..

I got your good character right here and I know you're right.

Egos...no way Ted wants to be shown up IMO.

Character is an issue in a way. John "clowned" by throwing sets *if that's what he did PUBLICLY " but to me it's SUBJECTIVE and CULTURE specific...

John Wall made some poor decisions I guess but Terd is just a garbage person. He has made a habit of taking passive aggressive digs at players on their way out. As if being booted from the storied Washington Wizards franchise is somehow a mark of shame. Plus Terd seems like he holds grudges - the real thin-skinned types usually do. I doubt he signs off on Wall coming back, but we'll see.

[9 and 20]

No... we're not bringing back John Wall, & we're not bringing back Russell Westbrook. People aren't stupid. Either move would signal a completely cynical franchise & one with no interest whatever in ever building a winner.

I don't know what to make of the discussion in this thread. I guess people just think there is no way at all to build a winning NBA team.

Is this a real question? This is 100% a completely cynical franchise with no interest in winning. Terd is cynical enough to have to have extended Grunfeld's contract in secret. Multiple times! And becoming a winner is clearly not our goal. Every year, our goal is no higher than making the playoffs. Now, with the play-in game at the 10 seed, we've dropped the bar even further. Terd fancies up the garbage with the occasional Israeli or Latvian heritage night or retro unis or cherry blossom themed trash or whatever.

[FAH1223]

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[payitforward]

No... we're not bringing back John Wall, & we're not bringing back Russell Westbrook. People aren't stupid. Either move would signal a completely cynical franchise & one with no interest whatever in ever building a winner.

I don't know what to make of the discussion in this thread. I guess people just think there is no way at all to build a winning NBA team.

Is this a real question? This is 100% a completely cynical franchise with no interest in winning. Terd is cynical enough to have to have extended Grunfeld's contract in secret. Multiple times! And becoming a winner is clearly not our goal. Every year, our goal is no higher than making the playoffs. Now, with the play-in game at the 10 seed, we've dropped the bar even further. Terd fancies up the garbage with the occasional Israeli or Latvian heritage night or retro unis or cherry blossom themed trash or whatever.

I don't disagree! But, I don't think Ted would want to, as I wrote, "signal a completely cynical franchise."

Then again, what do I know?

[payitforward]

About halfway down the comment thread at https://www.bulletsforever.com/2022/4/15/23025966/the-wizards-rotation-doesnt-add-up, our old friend Kevin Broom mentions a few problems he's seen w/ Wizards' FO decision processes:

"Professionals are as prone to cognitive bias as anyone else. Some specific biases I've seen/experienced with the Wizards: availability/recency, anchoring (fixating on the first piece of information regardless of what comes after), commitment (supporting previous decisions, even when it's clear they're wrong), "good enough", valuing specific information over more comprehensive data (like, acquiring Yi and thinking they were getting a steal because of "his" plus/minus numbers), endowment effect (valuing players they already have more than players they don't), overconfident in their own predictions, overly optimistic, ignoring negative information, externalizing failure (it's bad luck or injuries or the refs, and not "we're not good enough"), and (of course) sunk cost fallacy (we can't give up on Player X, he was the 9th pick in the draft just three years ago!)."

Be nice to avoid as much as possible of that here!!

[doclinkin]

About halfway down the comment thread at https://www.bulletsforever.com/2022/4/15/23025966/the-wizards-rotation-doesnt-add-up, our old friend Kevin Broom mentions a few problems he's seen w/ Wizards' FO decision processes:

"Professionals are as prone to cognitive bias as anyone else. Some specific biases I've seen/experienced with the Wizards: availability/recency, anchoring (fixating on the first piece of information regardless of what comes after), commitment (supporting previous decisions, even when it's clear they're wrong), "good enough", valuing specific information over more comprehensive data (like, acquiring Yi and thinking they were getting a steal because of "his" plus/minus numbers), endowment effect (valuing players they already have more than players they don't), overconfident in their own predictions, overly optimistic, ignoring negative information, externalizing failure (it's bad luck or injuries or the refs, and not "we're not good enough"), and (of course) sunk cost fallacy (we can't give up on Player X, he was the 9th pick in the draft just three years ago!)."

Be nice to avoid as much as possible of that here!!

Specifically what I was saying in the Rui thread. He's likable. Looks the part. GMs like think they are smarter than the other guys or have a better system or atmosphere for developing a guy. And hey, they may be right. But most front offices are not entirely rational. Much is done by 'feel'. Eye test. Etc.

In Blink Malcolm Gladwell talks about how in many cases more information only muddies the waters. My impression is that sometimes the interview process can obscure the issue. It becomes less a question of: "can this cat do the thing we want him to do, has he shown it in games" and more "I like this guy, he has good character". LaMelo Ball seemed fairly inarticulate in analysis of his own strengths and weaknesses when talking with Mike Schmidtz (sp?) but his innate feel for the game is levels beyond many who have to grind at it to improve. His talent and understanding of game play does not require in depth analysis for him to pull off wildly creative actions on court. This is one reason why I rail against Ted's 'good character' double bottom line concept. "Life is too short to drink bad wine" and all that. Yes good character is nice. But Jordan wasn't nice. Kobe wasn't nice. Larry Bird was prickly and a HOF trash talker. Talent and desire and competitive arrogance and a rage to win are more important than assembling a team of nice guys. I dunno. Okay Giannis is nice. Doesn't matter. Business requires some level of sociopathic focus. There is only one bottom line: did you make the post season then win the last game you played that year. The rest is giving yourself permission to declare moral victories, and hope that sells a few more tickets.

[Rafael122]

It depends on what you define one point guard away as. One point guard away from being a top 6 seed? Sure. One point guard away from being a championship team? Probably not.

[dobrojim]

I'd feel very conflicted if I had to root for a team of true lowlifes. I'm thinking
of one particular retired, deceased and widely revered player in this instance.