Fencer reregistered wrote:I don't see the Celtics as being "borderline top 5 in a best-case scenario". Who are the teams that might be in the top tier(s)?
Phoenix -- looking good. CP3 has age and durability concerns, however.
Memphis -- clearly. But Ja, JJJ and good teammates are not in some tier over Jayson, Jaylen and good teammates.
Warriors -- all three of the top guys are of questionable age/durability. And Wiggins of course is the most borderline of borderline all-stars.
Denver -- Jokic is awesome. Murray is a good bet to come back good. MPJ not so much.
Clippers -- two stars if healthy. They're rarely healthy.
Philly -- not that great unless Harden is rejuvenated.
Bucks -- Giannis' sidekicks are 30+.
Nets -- well, you know.
Heat -- Bam, some old guys, and some white shooters who can't defend.
I think the Celtics stack up well against those guys.
-- Tatum is elite.
-- Jaylen is a nice borderline all-star, in a higher tier than (say) Wiggins.
-- Rob is pretty close to Gobert at either end of the court.
But what's really impressive about the Cs is the defensive talent. Who's the fifth-best defender among the starters? Jaylen? Al? When in the history of the league has there been a team that consistently good on defense? I'd rank our worst defensive starter as being a better defender than Ainge, or Craig Hodges, or Tony Parker, or Adrian Dantley/Mark Aguirre ... The bench has excellent defenders as well.
Also, some teams have the advantage of being more than the sum of the parts, thanks to coaching. The Celtics seem to be in that group.
I agree that the Celts play as a team. I do think other teams have star power that we don't have. Our record stacks up, but that might be a bit of a mirage accounting for injuries and current health of teams. We aren't even favored in the 1st round and wouldn't have the best player on the floor vs the Nets, Bucks, or Sixers. The Suns had 13 more wins than we did despite a lot more injuries. Warriors might finally be healthy. We are in the pack but not at the front of it.
Perhaps taking a realistic view of championship odds is more insightful than asking whether we are the 4th or 6th most likely team? I think our odds are probably just below 10% this year. Was that worth Brad spending future assets to maximize short-term performance vs Ainge hoarding future assets to try to make an eventual kill shot trade? I guess we will find out, but I feel like people are a little too far upfield on that one right now. Putting aside the question of which model is better suited to build a true contender or championship team, we don't even know if Brad's model is a significant improvement in the short-term once the real games start.
The Knicks looked good in the regular season last year because they were healthier and trying harder than other teams. Most of the other teams with good records this year have been more injured or load-managing a lot more than we did, and IMO we just might come to find out that our talent tops out below a lot of them. We also have a rookie head coach in the playoffs, where coaching actually matters.
Not rooting for that, just think you can make a solid case that for many teams, the quality of rosters taking the floor in these playoffs are better than their record this year. Suns, Grizz, Heat, Bucks, Warriors, Sixers, Nets, Raps, Timberwolves can all say that, if not the Mavs as well. Can we?