LukaTheGOAT wrote:I have already spoken about how I don't take the plus-minus changes as directly the end-all-be-all for MIP. While, I have mentioned Garland's value has changed perhaps more, I also did not mention why Ja' plus-minus might not pop as much. There have already been people who mentioned Desmond Bane or Jaren Jackson Jr. as potential candidates for MIP, and to me that is explicitly part of the reason why he might not pop as much-Ja's teammates around him improved a lot which overshadows some of his overall value change. In terms of MIP, I am looking for the guy who increases championship odds on average fro all 30 NBA teams. And to me, plus-minus can be partially deceptive here. As someone mentioned earlier, by the box-score, Ja Morant seems to have made the largest leap, and while the box-score is greatly flawed, I don't think such leaps are solely due to increased primacy from Morant (which is what could lead to him being overrated by the box-score) as his offensive load went from a 48.1 to over a 55 in one season-that's only about a 7% increase in dedicated possessions to him (which is a good amount), but practically nothing considering just how much better a scorer he became.
Ja Morant went from an Inflation Adjusted 20.1 pts per 75 (rTS% of -1.1%) to 29.9 pts per 75 (rTS% of 0.9%)
Darius Garland went from an Inflation Adjusted 19 pts per 75 (rTS% of -2.7%) to an Inflation Adjusted 22.8 pts per 75 (rTS% of 0.4%).
If we look at some old work by Elgee35 https://elgee35.wordpress.com/2011/01/page/2/
on average we could expect 1.0 point change in offensive efficiency for Ja Morant's teams, and a 1.15 point change in offensive efficiency for Garland's teams in terms of just their pure shooting efficiency. However, when you then consider that Morant's scoring jump resulted in 9.8 more pts per 75 compared to Garland's 3.8 pts per 75 (and assuming the rate of change stays linear and they play more than 75 possessions big games in the PS, this difference is bigger), Morant on the basis of his scoring improvement is helping teams out to a much greater extent than Garland on the basis of scoring that is hard to makeup for.
If we go by PlayVal, Ja Morant improved from a 0.15 points per 75 possessions in terms of playmaking impact to 1.05 change-a 0.9 change.
Darius Garland improved from a 0.3 to 1.35. A 1.05 change.
It would seem Garland improved a bit more as a playmaker, but still not close to the overall change in the scoring gap. We shouldn't expect a 1 to 1 change because situations can dictate change in scoring rate and playmaking impact, but I imagine if you are using them for championship contention, it would be comparable to how they are used now.
Therefore, assuming things like their offensive rebounding, and other portions of their game improved by just about the same amount, for Garland to close the gap on Morant,his defense roughly would have to have improved in saving about 5 points per 75 possessions MORE than Morant this year. And quite frankly, I don't see any argument how he has improved that dramatically on that end through ability of his own, more so rather flanking him with 3 7-footers is likely helping his plus-minus quite a bit.
A lot to like in this post, and I don't have an issue with either your focus on championship-likelihood, or the general conclusion that that points to Morant.
You lost me when you got to the whole "defense would have to have improved by 5 points per 75 possessions MORE than Morant". Where are those numbers coming from?
Re: Garland's +/- benefitting from 3 7-footers. So, broadly speaking, I concur with the theory that a team with depth in one area (such as big men) can lead to a teammate in an area where they lack depth will have a tendency to be more valuable within this context than he would be on the average team.
But I do think it's important to not simply say "Therefore however impressive he looks, it's not that impressive." As I've said, the Cavs have literally been better with Garland on the floor than the Grizz have been with Morant on the floor, and Morant's playing on a team that's regular-season-elite across the board while Garland's been on a team with mega-injury issues the entire year.
