Post#590 » by Naero » Sat Apr 16, 2022 5:23 pm
It’s not often 2-7 match-ups have competitive preseries odds, as the Lakers-Suns series did last year. Like the 2021 Lakers, the Nets aren’t your typical seventh seed, yet they ended up berthed as such because of their oft-sidelined starpower.
Between KD’s injuries and Kyrie’s anti-vaccine crusade, the duo has only played 17 games together so far. Not that their 11-6 record—a winning rate equivalent to the first seed out East—in those games is discouraging, but the sample size isn’t nearly enough to slam the door on their opponent as many did last postseason and earlier this season (albeit, justifiably).
The Celtics certainly aren’t an also-ran seventh seed in their own right anymore, as they seemed on-pace to be pre-ASB. They found a mid-season turnaround, partly owing to trading off square pegs for Derrick White and the reacquisition of Theis, and they now look just as favorable as the Nets (as reflected by Vegas), if not more so.
They helped improbably invert the 2-7 seeding in this rematch with improved, healthier versions of their young nucleus. Especially Tatum, who’s indisputably reached superstardom at this point and no longer has an undermanned supporting cast.
The entire team is also synergizing once again, owing in large part to Udoka. A refreshing locker-room voice—which many questionable coaching changeovers are reducible to—has undoubtedly helped the Celtics re-establish themselves as a top-five defense, and arguably the league’s best this season.
The Nets may have the two-best offensive players this series—including arguably the BITW in Kevin Durant—but the Celtics’ own depth may very well outstretch that advantage. From the third-best player and onwards, the Nets are decidedly outmanned.
Moreover, it’s far from guaranteed that the Nets’ stars play out of the pack offensively if the teams’ regular-season disparity on the defensive end is any predictor. Brooklyn will need to improve their mediocre-at-best defense, and a healthy KD—who’s underratedly improved defensively—may move the needle.
It’s not unimaginable that the Nets stars find ample help, but someone will need to step up. It could mean Mills shaking out of his post-ASB slump. Or Seth Curry torching the Celtics from downtown as he did in the regular season. Maybe Claxton, the most athletic bigman in the series (with Williams out), becoming the X-factor.
The Nets’ extra help might not be by dint of Ben Simmons, whether it’s because of his continued absenteeism (which has made many second-guess the Harden trade) or because he might disrupt his team’s chemistry with his sudden integration in the lineup. If he plays this series and up to par, however, his playmaking and defense could help neutralize the Celtics’ backcourt advantages; but that’s too big of an if to bet on.
Nash will need to be careful on how he staggers his rotations: it’s too easy to field an oversmall lineup when digging into his bench, and he might need to marginalize Dragic (who hasn’t found his stroke yet in Brooklyn). The Nets simply need to find their advantage on the froncourt, not their vastly outmatched backcourt.
All in all, the Celtics have more in their wheelhouse in this rematch if they uphold their post-January level of play, but I’m never going to rule out the Nets while Durant and Irving are healthy. It may take a series for the ages by KD, but he engineered one the last time his team needed it against the Bucks (granted, in a losing effort).
Regardless of the outcome, this is shaping up to be the most compelling first-round series this year. For all we know, the ECF might have been preponed to the first round.
Bottom-line prediction: Nets in seven.
