OT: Russia-Ukraine War

[Zenzibar]

Bloomberg News
March 22, 2022, 11:29 AM EDT

It’s been a month since the war started, but Russia is actually shipping more natural gas through Ukraine and Moscow is still paying Kyiv in full for transiting the fuel to Europe.

Daily gas flows from Russia at some point surged more than 50% from January lows, with shipments traveling through Ukrainian pipelines more than doubling as energy companies rushed to buy after the invasion. Exports from Europe’s top supplier became cheaper than buying gas in the spot market, and Russia is still paying for transit in hard currency, according to Yuriy Vitrenko, chief executive officer of NJSC Naftogaz Ukrainy, Ukraine’s largest state-owned oil and gas company.

It’s an awkward situation for European policy makers, which have imposed several rounds of sanctions on Moscow to try to starve President Vladimir Putin’s government of the cash it needs to fund the invasion. The increase also comes as European governments pledge to wean themselves off Russian gas, with plans to keep nuclear and coal plants open for longer and import more liquefied natural gas from countries including the U.S. and Qatar.

[HarthorneWingo]

Everything is fcked up

[Jethrobodine123]

Everything is fcked up

It really is, in so many ways.

We have a friend who lived in Moscow for many many years, highly fluent in the Russian language (along with many others) a highly intelligent guy who is very tuned in to what's going on over there. We asked him for his impressions on the Ukraine war, his message was long and his thoughts were absolutely fascinating. Here are a few points from his email, I will paraphrase to help protect the innocents from any future retaliation. These are his thoughts, not mine:

- Russia is resetting, wants to ruin Ukraine by taking a land bridge that runs from Kharkiv down through Mariupol along the Sea of Azov to Odessa on the Black Sea.

- A landlocked Ukraine would devastate the Ukraine economy.

- Putin is thought to have thyroid cancer and on steroids which could explain his paranoia and the nasty mood swings

- If Putin is removed his replacement would almost certainly be a fellow by the name of Alexander Bortnikov, spy number 2 in waiting, the feeling is he could even be worse than Putin.

- The Ukraine "affair" was a huge military miscalculation, even a small victory seems doubtful at this point. He won't be able to subdue 30-40 million Ukrainians left standing.

- He won't be able to lie to the Russian people forever, mothers whose sons die or MIA will be a huge problem.

- The Russian people are already having doubts about the narrative of what's going on.

- China will attempt to keep sitting on the fence and take advantage of cheap oil and commodities for a long time to come.

- Financially and economically, the Russians are feeling the pinch, only going to get worse.

- Putin is being backed into a corner and he has always said he would use nukes if Russia's existence is threatened.

J

[Zenzibar]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/19/politics/us-weapons-ukraine-intelligence/index.html



What happens to weapons sent to Ukraine? The US doesn’t really know.

The US has few ways to track the substantial supply of anti-tank, anti-aircraft and other weaponry it has sent across the border into Ukraine, sources tell CNN, a blind spot that’s due in large part to the lack of US boots on the ground in the country – and the easy portability of many of the smaller systems now pouring across the border.


___________________


Oh goody, weapons go underground and wind up in the slimy rogue hands of the highest bidder.

[Zenzibar]

EU To Impose Full Embargo On Russian Oil Next Week, Will Send Price Above $185 According To JPMorgan
Tyler Durden's Photo
BY TYLER DURDEN
TUESDAY, APR 19, 2022 - 01:13 PM
Update (13:15 ET): What was largely a theoretical modeling exercise until moments ago, is set to go live because Reuters reports that the EU is set to declare a full embargo on Russian oil after this weekend's French election:

EU GAS PRICE TO SHOOT UP AS EU TO DECLARE EMBARGO ON RUSSIAN OIL AFTER FRENCH ELECTION NEXT WEEK - SOURCE
Why wait until after the election to launch the embargo? Simple: Europe's bureaucrats are correctly terrified that the coming oil price spike to push the vote in Le Pen's favor, which is why Europe will wait until after the election (when Macron will supposedly be the next president of France, as Belgium hopes) to announce it publicly.

Despite the clear intentions of western government to cripple Russian energy production, loadings of Russian oil have so far been surprisingly resilient, so much so that Russia's current account balance is at all time highs

_____

Oh goody, $7gal just in time for the Summer,, yeyyyy!

[HarthorneWingo]

EU To Impose Full Embargo On Russian Oil Next Week, Will Send Price Above $185 According To JPMorgan
Tyler Durden's Photo
BY TYLER DURDEN
TUESDAY, APR 19, 2022 - 01:13 PM
Update (13:15 ET): What was largely a theoretical modeling exercise until moments ago, is set to go live because Reuters reports that the EU is set to declare a full embargo on Russian oil after this weekend's French election:

EU GAS PRICE TO SHOOT UP AS EU TO DECLARE EMBARGO ON RUSSIAN OIL AFTER FRENCH ELECTION NEXT WEEK - SOURCE
Why wait until after the election to launch the embargo? Simple: Europe's bureaucrats are correctly terrified that the coming oil price spike to push the vote in Le Pen's favor, which is why Europe will wait until after the election (when Macron will supposedly be the next president of France, as Belgium hopes) to announce it publicly.

Despite the clear intentions of western government to cripple Russian energy production, loadings of Russian oil have so far been surprisingly resilient, so much so that Russia's current account balance is at all time highs

_____

Oh goody, $7gal just in time for the Summer,, yeyyyy!

Well ... where are you going? Besides,people drive too much anyhow. Buy and electric scooter or motorbike for the summer. The chicks will dig you even more.

[HarthorneWingo]

Everything is fcked up

It really is, in so many ways.

We have a friend who lived in Moscow for many many years, highly fluent in the Russian language (along with many others) a highly intelligent guy who is very tuned in to what's going on over there. We asked him for his impressions on the Ukraine war, his message was long and his thoughts were absolutely fascinating. Here are a few points from his email, I will paraphrase to help protect the innocents from any future retaliation. These are his thoughts, not mine:

- Russia is resetting, wants to ruin Ukraine by taking a land bridge that runs from Kharkiv down through Mariupol along the Sea of Azov to Odessa on the Black Sea.

- A landlocked Ukraine would devastate the Ukraine economy.

- Putin is thought to have thyroid cancer and on steroids which could explain his paranoia and the nasty mood swings

- If Putin is removed his replacement would almost certainly be a fellow by the name of Alexander Bortnikov, spy number 2 in waiting, the feeling is he could even be worse than Putin.

- The Ukraine "affair" was a huge military miscalculation, even a small victory seems doubtful at this point. He won't be able to subdue 30-40 million Ukrainians left standing.

- He won't be able to lie to the Russian people forever, mothers whose sons die or MIA will be a huge problem.

- The Russian people are already having doubts about the narrative of what's going on.

- China will attempt to keep sitting on the fence and take advantage of cheap oil and commodities for a long time to come.

- Financially and economically, the Russians are feeling the pinch, only going to get worse.

- Putin is being backed into a corner and he has always said he would use nukes if Russia's existence is threatened.

J

This is from Gary Kasparov. Though he says that Putin’s No. 2 is worse than Putin. This your friend get into this possibility?

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/garry-kasparov-putin-ukraine_n_625e644ae4b06c2ea32e63ab

Grandmaster Garry Kasparov Predicts 'Palace Coup' May Oust Putin Over Ukraine
The Russian chess legend, a fierce Putin critic, laid out “the order of moves that cannot be reversed."

By Lee Moran
Apr. 19, 2022, 04:15 AM EDT | Updated 10 hours ago

Russian chess legend Garry Kasparov on Monday explained what may lead to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ouster by his inner circle in a “palace coup.”

CNN’s Paula Reid asked the longtime Putin critic and political activist if he expected to see more anti-Kremlin sentiment building in Russia as its invasion of Ukraine falters.
“Eventually, yes,” replied Kasparov, a chess grandmaster for the former Soviet Union and Russia.

Kasparov then laid out “the order of moves that cannot be reversed.”

“First, the Russian public and Russian elite, they have to recognize the war is lost,” he said. “The bad news coming from Ukraine will inspire more people to rise because economic hardship will increase.”

“So, military defeat in Ukraine, social-economic revolt and then you will have conditions, the right conditions, for a palace coup,” Kasparov predicted. “Because many of Putin’s inner circle will be looking for a scapegoat and it’s always a dictator who should be blamed for all the failures.”

Putin knows losing the war on Ukraine “is not an option for him,” said Kasparov.
“It’s a matter of political survival and in many cases … of physical survival,” he added. “That’s why he has to pretend he is winning the war.”

[Jethrobodine123]

Everything is fcked up

It really is, in so many ways.

We have a friend who lived in Moscow for many many years, highly fluent in the Russian language (along with many others) a highly intelligent guy who is very tuned in to what's going on over there. We asked him for his impressions on the Ukraine war, his message was long and his thoughts were absolutely fascinating. Here are a few points from his email, I will paraphrase to help protect the innocents from any future retaliation. These are his thoughts, not mine:

- Russia is resetting, wants to ruin Ukraine by taking a land bridge that runs from Kharkiv down through Mariupol along the Sea of Azov to Odessa on the Black Sea.

- A landlocked Ukraine would devastate the Ukraine economy.

- Putin is thought to have thyroid cancer and on steroids which could explain his paranoia and the nasty mood swings

- If Putin is removed his replacement would almost certainly be a fellow by the name of Alexander Bortnikov, spy number 2 in waiting, the feeling is he could even be worse than Putin.

- The Ukraine "affair" was a huge military miscalculation, even a small victory seems doubtful at this point. He won't be able to subdue 30-40 million Ukrainians left standing.

- He won't be able to lie to the Russian people forever, mothers whose sons die or MIA will be a huge problem.

- The Russian people are already having doubts about the narrative of what's going on.

- China will attempt to keep sitting on the fence and take advantage of cheap oil and commodities for a long time to come.

- Financially and economically, the Russians are feeling the pinch, only going to get worse.

- Putin is being backed into a corner and he has always said he would use nukes if Russia's existence is threatened.

J

This is from Gary Kasparov. Though he says that Putin’s No. 2 is worse than Putin. This your friend get into this possibility?

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/garry-kasparov-putin-ukraine_n_625e644ae4b06c2ea32e63ab

Grandmaster Garry Kasparov Predicts 'Palace Coup' May Oust Putin Over Ukraine
The Russian chess legend, a fierce Putin critic, laid out “the order of moves that cannot be reversed."

By Lee Moran
Apr. 19, 2022, 04:15 AM EDT | Updated 10 hours ago

Russian chess legend Garry Kasparov on Monday explained what may lead to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ouster by his inner circle in a “palace coup.”

CNN’s Paula Reid asked the longtime Putin critic and political activist if he expected to see more anti-Kremlin sentiment building in Russia as its invasion of Ukraine falters.
“Eventually, yes,” replied Kasparov, a chess grandmaster for the former Soviet Union and Russia.

Kasparov then laid out “the order of moves that cannot be reversed.”

“First, the Russian public and Russian elite, they have to recognize the war is lost,” he said. “The bad news coming from Ukraine will inspire more people to rise because economic hardship will increase.”

“So, military defeat in Ukraine, social-economic revolt and then you will have conditions, the right conditions, for a palace coup,” Kasparov predicted. “Because many of Putin’s inner circle will be looking for a scapegoat and it’s always a dictator who should be blamed for all the failures.”

Putin knows losing the war on Ukraine “is not an option for him,” said Kasparov.
“It’s a matter of political survival and in many cases … of physical survival,” he added. “That’s why he has to pretend he is winning the war.”

He did make a point that people were already having doubts about the big lie and that there is nowhere to go but down for a defeated Russian leader, he pretty much agreed with Kasparov in that he can't be seen as losing this war, he has to get some sort of victory, if not, the excrement will hit the fan for him. What struck us the most was our friends pessimism about the whole thing, like many us he is very nervous as to what a cornered, desperate Putin could do.

J

[8516knicks]

Lots of new equipment arriving maybe tomorrow in Ukraine inlcuding British Stormer vehicles (mobile rocket launching) and Starstreak missles (2.5 mach up to 14 miles) and the USA howitzers. Could (hopefully) chew up the Russians and their supply routes.

[Zenzibar]

EU To Impose Full Embargo On Russian Oil Next Week, Will Send Price Above $185 According To JPMorgan
Tyler Durden's Photo
BY TYLER DURDEN
TUESDAY, APR 19, 2022 - 01:13 PM
Update (13:15 ET): What was largely a theoretical modeling exercise until moments ago, is set to go live because Reuters reports that the EU is set to declare a full embargo on Russian oil after this weekend's French election:

EU GAS PRICE TO SHOOT UP AS EU TO DECLARE EMBARGO ON RUSSIAN OIL AFTER FRENCH ELECTION NEXT WEEK - SOURCE
Why wait until after the election to launch the embargo? Simple: Europe's bureaucrats are correctly terrified that the coming oil price spike to push the vote in Le Pen's favor, which is why Europe will wait until after the election (when Macron will supposedly be the next president of France, as Belgium hopes) to announce it publicly.

Despite the clear intentions of western government to cripple Russian energy production, loadings of Russian oil have so far been surprisingly resilient, so much so that Russia's current account balance is at all time highs

_____

Oh goody, $7gal just in time for the Summer,, yeyyyy!

Well ... where are going? Besides,people drive too much anyhow. Buy and electric scooter or motorbike for the summer. The chicks will dig you even more.

, Bro, I brought an electric scooter during the summer of 2020 to enjoy the scarcity of cars and people on the streets of NYC. It was mad fun, then I've subsequently busted my asss 3x and somehow the glitter is somewhat gone.. jjj

[HarthorneWingo]

EU To Impose Full Embargo On Russian Oil Next Week, Will Send Price Above $185 According To JPMorgan
Tyler Durden's Photo
BY TYLER DURDEN
TUESDAY, APR 19, 2022 - 01:13 PM
Update (13:15 ET): What was largely a theoretical modeling exercise until moments ago, is set to go live because Reuters reports that the EU is set to declare a full embargo on Russian oil after this weekend's French election:

EU GAS PRICE TO SHOOT UP AS EU TO DECLARE EMBARGO ON RUSSIAN OIL AFTER FRENCH ELECTION NEXT WEEK - SOURCE
Why wait until after the election to launch the embargo? Simple: Europe's bureaucrats are correctly terrified that the coming oil price spike to push the vote in Le Pen's favor, which is why Europe will wait until after the election (when Macron will supposedly be the next president of France, as Belgium hopes) to announce it publicly.

Despite the clear intentions of western government to cripple Russian energy production, loadings of Russian oil have so far been surprisingly resilient, so much so that Russia's current account balance is at all time highs

_____

Oh goody, $7gal just in time for the Summer,, yeyyyy!

Well ... where are going? Besides,people drive too much anyhow. Buy and electric scooter or motorbike for the summer. The chicks will dig you even more.

, Bro, I brought an electric scooter during the summer of 2020 to enjoy the scarcity of cars and people on the streets of NYC. It was mad fun, then I've subsequently busted my asss 3x and somehow the glitter is somewhat gone.. jjj

You wrecked it?

[Zenzibar]

Well ... where are going? Besides,people drive too much anyhow. Buy and electric scooter or motorbike for the summer. The chicks will dig you even more.

, Bro, I brought an electric scooter during the summer of 2020 to enjoy the scarcity of cars and people on the streets of NYC. It was mad fun, then I've subsequently busted my asss 3x and somehow the glitter is somewhat gone.. jjj

You wrecked it?

Still have it, but I've gotten to like walking more. jjj

[HarthorneWingo]

, Bro, I brought an electric scooter during the summer of 2020 to enjoy the scarcity of cars and people on the streets of NYC. It was mad fun, then I've subsequently busted my asss 3x and somehow the glitter is somewhat gone.. jjj

You wrecked it?

Still have it, but I've gotten to like walking more. jjj

What happened? Gimme da deets

[8516knicks]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/19/politics/us-weapons-ukraine-intelligence/index.html



What happens to weapons sent to Ukraine? The US doesn’t really know.

The US has few ways to track the substantial supply of anti-tank, anti-aircraft and other weaponry it has sent across the border into Ukraine, sources tell CNN, a blind spot that’s due in large part to the lack of US boots on the ground in the country – and the easy portability of many of the smaller systems now pouring across the border.


___________________


Oh goody, weapons go underground and wind up in the slimy rogue hands of the highest bidder.

'Once the rockets go up who cares where the come down. That's not my department says Werner Von Braun.'

Watch on YouTube

[8516knicks]

You wrecked it?

Still have it, but I've gotten to like walking more. jjj

What happened? Gimme da deets

an electric scooter in nyc/? That's like playing Russian Roulette blindfolded!

[HarthorneWingo]

Still have it, but I've gotten to like walking more. jjj

What happened? Gimme da deets

an electric scooter in nyc/? That's like playing Russian Roulette blindfolded!

[dakomish23]

EVEN newsmax is asking Tucker to stop being pro Russia.

Sad days, huh

[thebuzzardman]

I figure Russia just continues to cause mass casualties among Ukranian civilians, rubble the country, continue reducing their army, and themselves suffer huge casualties in their military, which they don't give a single f*ck about. Basically a repeat of how they fought the Chechens 20 years ago etc.

So it costs some $ off their GDP? They reduce Ukraine as a competitor in the energy market for years, create a massive Western refugee crisis (win!), and probably secure their water and land bridge to the Crimea.

They might have to fight for 10 years and cause tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of deaths, but they've done that before.
Hey, the US did that in Iraq, so it's not as if it doesn't happen. Oh, and it happens throughout history, it's not just a feature of Western Imperialism or Capitalism, though of course them being equally as brutal as communism or the age of kings, or early empires, in terms of conquest, takes some of their shine away.

[Zenzibar]

You wrecked it?

Still have it, but I've gotten to like walking more. jjj

What happened? Gimme da deets

Was on Broadway around 50th, went to take my mask down and didn't compensate for the 1 hand on the handle bar.

[HarthorneWingo]

Still have it, but I've gotten to like walking more. jjj

What happened? Gimme da deets

Was on Broadway around 50th, went to take my mask down and didn't compensate for the 1 hand on the handle bar.