Offseason Plan

[DCZards]

Watch on YouTube

'
Thanks for posting this. I find this to be a sober--and fairly accurate--assessment of the Zards situation this offseason...and the pros & cons of resigning Beal

Marks makes a good point about both Tyus Jones and Brunson probably being out of the Zards price range since we only have the MLE..he even brings up Wall as a possibility for the Zards.

Don't agree with all of what Marks has to say but it was good hearing his viewpoint.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Victor Oladipo still has game.

[dckingsfan]

I will take a swing (and probably a miss)
Goal: become a perenial top 4 team in the east in 3 to 4 years with the eventual goal of a championship by adding pieces if/when we are ready for that step.

To that end, getting younger will be key. So, this year...

==================

KCP and Beal don't fit the mold for that goal.

Trade Bradley Beal for a young guard prospect that may not have done well in his first or second year that you think could have a chance. The type of trade I would do is Beal for Jonathan Isaac (don't necessarily expect he will play again), Terrance Ross and Jalen Suggs + hopefully assets. The point of this trade is Suggs and assets. I am going to eat Isaac's contract and hope to trade it in the final year. They may say no and then I am off to the next possible trade.

KCP's trade value will be at a high this off-season. I see if I can trade him for young player(s) and/or assets and I am will to take back a bad contract for the next two to three years. If I can get some significant assets I bundle either Kuzma or Hachimura.

Todd and Carey go in one of the two trades.

In the draft, I take the BPA in the first round and then flyers on guards in the second round (I purchase a second pick if at all possible.

I waive Ish, I don't resign Bryant. I do try to resign Gill but he has played pretty well, might be too expensive.

I try to sign a Delon Wright and Satoransky if they are affordable.

==================

During the season, I see how Porzingis plays out with the new high post offense. If he does amazingly well, I package him off for assets or determine if I can build around him. I am the GM and not the coach but I try to influence Wes to start Gafford and Porzingis together. I try to land a defensive minded C to backup Gafford. Our SFs are now Kuzma, Avidja, Hachimura and Kispert. Kuzma and Hachimura will also get to play backup PF if Wes listens.

I don't have a first round pick in 2023. I have to figure out if I am going to extend Hachimura if he is still here and Kuzma isn't going to take the extension I offer - so, I would have been well served moving him for assets in 2022. I should have made my determination on Avdija and Kispert by then.

I continue taking on assets until we start to win, then I consolidate assets for players. I continue to brutally evaluate my youngsters to see who should stay and go.

==================

When you go through this exercise you see what a box we are in. We have limited assets and no real players to build around (I don't consider Beal/Porzingis that.

==================

My take of what will really happen.

1) We will resign Beal
2) We will chase the FA PG market or try to trade for a PG
3) We will try to resign Satoransky
4) We will take a guard in the draft and not necessarily the BPA
5) We will not purchase another 2nd round pick
6) We will be slow to pull the trigger on trades of KCP, Hachimura and Kuzma
7) We will be slow to jetison Todd and Carey

[Dat2U]

In retrospect, the Kristaps trade created the avenue towards mediocrity. Talent wise it was a good deal but being stuck with Bertans and an unhappy Dinwiddie would have made play-in aspirations seem like a stretch with current core and made it harder for Beal to want to stay. Beal leaves and Shepp & Ted have no choice but to rebuild, like it or not.

I see very little room for significant improvement unless they upgrade the PG position and it appears the options to so so are very limited, unless you wanna consider Russell Westbrook an upgrade at this point.

[Dat2U]

I will take a swing (and probably a miss)
Goal: become a perenial top 4 team in the east in 3 to 4 years with the eventual goal of a championship by adding pieces if/when we are ready for that step.

To that end, getting younger will be key. So, this year...

==================

KCP and Beal don't fit the mold for that goal.

Trade Bradley Beal for a young guard prospect that may not have done well in his first or second year that you think could have a chance. The type of trade I would do is Beal for Jonathan Isaac (don't necessarily expect he will play again), Terrance Ross and Jalen Suggs + hopefully assets. The point of this trade is Suggs and assets. I am going to eat Isaac's contract and hope to trade it in the final year. They may say no and then I am off to the next possible trade.

KCP's trade value will be at a high this off-season. I see if I can trade him for young player(s) and/or assets and I am will to take back a bad contract for the next two to three years. If I can get some significant assets I bundle either Kuzma or Hachimura.

Todd and Carey go in one of the two trades.

In the draft, I take the BPA in the first round and then flyers on guards in the second round (I purchase a second pick if at all possible.

I waive Ish, I don't resign Bryant. I do try to resign Gill but he has played pretty well, might be too expensive.

I try to sign a Delon Wright and Satoransky if they are affordable.

==================

During the season, I see how Porzingis plays out with the new high post offense. If he does amazingly well, I package him off for assets or determine if I can build around him. I am the GM and not the coach but I try to influence Wes to start Gafford and Porzingis together. I try to land a defensive minded C to backup Gafford. Our SFs are now Kuzma, Avidja, Hachimura and Kispert. Kuzma and Hachimura will also get to play backup PF if Wes listens.

I don't have a first round pick in 2023. I have to figure out if I am going to extend Hachimura if he is still here and Kuzma isn't going to take the extension I offer - so, I would have been well served moving him for assets in 2022. I should have made my determination on Avdija and Kispert by then.

I continue taking on assets until we start to win, then I consolidate assets for players. I continue to brutally evaluate my youngsters to see who should stay and go.

==================

When you go through this exercise you see what a box we are in. We have limited assets and no real players to build around (I don't consider Beal/Porzingis that.

==================

My take of what will really happen.

1) We will resign Beal
2) We will chase the FA PG market or try to trade for a PG
3) We will try to resign Satoransky
4) We will take a guard in the draft and not necessarily the BPA
5) We will not purchase another 2nd round pick
6) We will be slow to pull the trigger on trades of KCP, Hachimura and Kuzma
7) We will be slow to jetison Todd and Carey

Your 2022-23 Wizards

Slogan:
"All in for the play-in"

Roster:
G Cory Joseph, Tomas Satoransky, Ish Smith
G Bradley Beal, Corey Kispert
F K. Caldwell-Pope, Deni Avdija, Nikola Jovic
F Kyle Kuzma, Rui Hachimura, Isaiah Todd
C Kristaps Porzingis, Daniel Gafford, Vernon Carey

[WallToWall]

I have faith in Tommy. He has made enough good moves for me to believe that he is a capable GM. The Porzingis trade was out of left field. Before we knew that Dinwidie would be toxic for us, most people pegged him for a capable PG who can score, and to engineer a trade landing Din, Kuzma, and others for Westbrook was widely viewed as a good thing. Trading Wall for Westbrook was also a good deal. Tommy made the most out of these deals for the Wizards, in terms of personnel he picked up and traded (not so much draft picks). In this off season, I would expect him to engineer what is needed and net the Wizards a capable PG. It will, most likely, be out of left field. Tommy Sheppard has a track record that shows he is capable of engineering deals, and making the most out of a trade for the benefit of the Wizards.
We have only been looking at the obvious. Over the next few months, players are going to want to move. Some will show their disgruntlement and teams will want to move them. Some teams may want to reset. Point is…players will move, and PG’s who don’t seem available right now will all of a sudden be available. It’s Tommy Sheppard time.

[trast66]

Watch on YouTube

So seems like will guarantee KCP for sure. Question is if then offer an extension.

I would guess not tendering or guaranteeing any of these:

June 29: The last day to tender Cassius Winston ($1.8M), Anthony Gill ($2M) and Jordan Schakel ($50K) a qualifying offer.

July 1: The 4.3 million contract of Ish Smith becomes guaranteed. Since the trade from the Charlotte Hornets, Smith played in 28 games, averaging 8.6 points and 5.2 assists.

[B8RcDeMktfxC]

Luxury tax is estimated at $148,254,400 by spotrac and the salary cap at $122,000,000.

[edit] I cut my salary table for space saving, since it wasn't really relevant to where the discussion went to.

Assuming you trade for Brunson this season one of those Todd/Cary salaries is traded in the deal. So in reality you are around $7.5m-$7.7m below the tax line with 12 players on the roster.

So, you'd add 3 vet minimum players to get to 15. You stay under the tax line.

The main questions, for me, are what might that team be able to accomplish in the '22-23 season? Would it contend in the East? & what is the direction in which it would be heading? Would it be moving us towards contending in the East?

I could be wrong, obviously. But I don't like the answers to those questions as I see them. Which amounts to saying that I don't think this would help us build a contender.

I certainly can't see us being much better next year just b/c we've added Brunson (who is a very good player, of course). Then, the following year Gafford earns an extra $10m. &, if Rui has blown up as a player? Surely we'd want to keep him, right? Ok, add another $8-10m. How about Deni the following year?

I don't see a way to build a winner here. Thus, even though Brad's going to re-sign & is a good player, it seems obvious to me that it's time to rebuild -- time to create the next generation of the Wizards.

To support my point, it seems to me that all I have to do is reference the fact that every year for the last several we've had this same discussion. Because, every year we have the same failure.

You don't have to agree with me, obviously! But, I don't think our problem is that "we need a point guard," whereupon the way to solve the problem is "let's go sign a point guard."

I think our problem is our unwillingness to recognize failure & start to rebuild.

Apologies, pif, I did keep this in mind, but just never got around to responding properly for meh-irl reasons.

My overall instinct (without looking at the specifics of the situations) is that non-sucessful teams should typically tear/burn it all down and keep doing that until something sticks. Now obviously, if you are the Lakers that's a plan, but also you can creep off the fact that players would like to live in LA etc. However, as a general principle I think this is the only realistic way for teams in most of these situations. I'm a huge fan of Hinkie's "Process" and I think what Presti is doing in OKC is insanely great. Who knows whether it will actually lead OKC to competing realistically to win the Championship, but it's way. way better as a strategy than whatever the Wizards and the Knicks (and, well, one could mention some other teams, but let's leave it there) have done over the last couple of decades.

So, I'm extremely sympathetic to your perspective here. How much does one want to pay, eg, Rui, if the team is treadmilling, even if he's showing signs of improvement? And what does that mean? (I'm a bit more positive about Gaff and I think $10m/yr about par for the course for what he gives, even for a #20-ranked team, but I take the point you are making.)

Despite that, I do think (naively .. on the basis of watching the last ~25 Wizards games this year) that the Wizards young players are doing pretty well in terms of development. Deni and Kispert, whilst of course having things to work on, seem to be coming on at least as well and probably better than one's expectation would have been. I haven't suffered watching years of Rui, but right now he seems reasonable. Idk. So I don't think really any of that needs shipping out for picks and junk salary, for example.

However, and here is where we are just going to have a radical disagreement - and, to be completely honest, I simply don't want to get into a long conversation about this, I don't think the Wizards are currently in the treadmilling situation they've been in ... *provided that Beal comes back as he was ~2 years ago*. (If Beal is declining sharply - and I keep asking you guys to keep me in check on this, because I simply haven't spent the time watching him or looking at his stats to have any kind of informed opinion on him - then, yes, maybe one goes back to selling him for whatever you can get and strip the team for picks.)

And this is because I take KP to be at a higher level than, for example, Beal's peak so far as a player - when he's not recovering from season-ending contact injuries. Positionally, I do (unsurprisingly) rate Jokic and Embiid above him, but he's really the #3 spacing+rim-protecting-C. And I don't think it's even particularly close. KAT is the closest but his defence really puts him in a tier below. Now, it's not that KP's game has no flaws, but if Beal really is still an all NBA player then KP-Beal is an incredibly strong starting point for a team. So I don't think this is the time for tearing everything down and starting over. Rather, I think the Wizards should take KP-Beal and throw in JB and the best of their young players who are semi-ready (and whatever they have in terms of vets and draftees and ... ) and go for it with that over the next four years.

[payitforward]

How about our 2 draft picks. Can we trade our R1 pick, I wonder, even if we want to -- given the fact that our R1 pick next year is on the hook to Houston? (Not that they'll get it: it's lottery protected, & the lottery is 100% where we'll be). As to our low R2 pick, obviously it has negligible trade value. For a team in the kind of mess we're in, I'd say it makes more sense to take a flyer on someone than to trade it. It certainly seems like we should use our picks not move them.

PIF, you encourage posters to give their plan for improving the Zards (an activity I like) and then say no matter what plan you come up with the Zards are "100%" a lottery team next year. That's both a disincentive for providing a plan and a definitive statement based on an opinion that I'm sure not everyone here shares.

Why should I offer up a plan when you've already decided it's going to fail?

I haven't "decided" anything, Zards. & a plan can/should be a multi-year plan. We could have a worse season next year, & it might still be that we'd taken steps in the right direction towards becoming a) relevant, & then b) a contender.

OTOH, dreaming of doing better than your personnel make likely seems like the real waste of time to me, Zards. Especially year after year. In fact, until you accept where you really are, you can't even start to figure out how to move in a positive direction from there. There is no reason why the Wizards can't become a successful franchise, but it will take time. & it will take a plan.

But there's another thing, & maybe this will make sense to you.

NBA basketball is 2 different things: it's competition, & it's entertainment. When I lived in DC, I shared a season ticket with a friend for a couple of years. Going to games was fun. Winning was better than losing, but most of the entertainment value was there either way.

In that sense, maybe if a person gets that in-person entertainment experience, has the experience as well of what you called the other day a "natural & organic sense of identification with the local team & players" (or words to that effect -- you can tell me if I got you more or less right), perhaps the satisfaction & pleasure in that make the, as I've described it, "quantitative" thing called wins less important than it might seem if you didn't get to go to the arena, see the people in your section, etc. -- have all those kinds of experiences.

That might make big-time success, competing for a title, etc. seem less critical -- & that POV seems perfectly legit to me. Just a thought.

[FAH1223]

Watch on YouTube

'
Thanks for posting this. I find this to be a sober--and fairly accurate--assessment of the Zards situation this offseason...and the pros & cons of resigning Beal

Marks makes a good point about both Tyus Jones and Brunson probably being out of the Zards price range since we only have the MLE..he even brings up Wall as a possibility for the Zards.

Don't agree with all of what Marks has to say but it was good hearing his viewpoint.

Yeah, I was a bit bummed about Tyus Jones commanding more than MLE money. But not many teams have cap space and a need for a PG.

I guess Memphis can give him that $15M per year and decide to trade him later

[nate33]

Watch on YouTube

'


Marks makes a good point about both Tyus Jones and Brunson probably being out of the Zards price range since we only have the MLE..he even brings up Wall as a possibility for the Zards.

I'm still curious who the two teams are that are going to pay Brunson $18M and Jones $15M.

Brunson isn't staying in Dallas. They can't afford him. So he will be the first guy an under-the-cap team in need of a point guards considers. But what under-the-cap teams need a PG?

Orlando has Fultz, Suggs, Anthony.
San Antonio has Dejounte Murray as the entrenched starter, plus Tre Jones as developing young backup.
Detroit has Cunningham and Hayes.
Portland has Lillard and presumably will resign Simons with RFA rights
Indiana has Haliburton and Brogdon.

Maybe Detroit goes after Brunson as a combo guard scorer who has proven he can play alongside a big wing PG, but I just don't see any of these other guys blowing their cap room opportunity on Tyus Jones.

The biggest competition for Jones is if Memphis decides they want to keep him at the full MLE. They have the cap room this year, but they need to plot out a long range strategy for cap management as a bunch of their rookie contract guys are due for extensions in a year. I don't know if they want Jones at $13-15M a year on the books for the next 3 years. And if we are both offering MLE money, wouldn't Jones rather start in DC than play behind Morant in Memphis?

[mhd]

Watch on YouTube

'


Marks makes a good point about both Tyus Jones and Brunson probably being out of the Zards price range since we only have the MLE..he even brings up Wall as a possibility for the Zards.

I'm still curious who the two teams are that are going to pay Brunson $18M and Jones $15M.

Brunson isn't staying in Dallas. They can't afford him. So he will be the first guy an under-the-cap team in need of a point guards considers. But what under-the-cap teams need a PG?

Orlando has Fultz, Suggs, Anthony.
San Antonio has Dejounte Murray as the entrenched starter, plus Tre Jones as developing young backup.
Detroit has Cunningham and Hayes.
Portland has Lillard and presumably will resign Simons with RFA rights
Indiana has Haliburton and Brogdon.

Maybe Detroit goes after Brunson as a combo guard scorer who has proven he can play alongside a big wing PG, but I just don't see any of these other guys blowing their cap room opportunity on Tyus Jones.

The biggest competition for Jones is if Memphis decides they want to keep him at the full MLE. They have the cap room this year, but they need to plot out a long range strategy for cap management as a bunch of their rookie contract guys are due for extensions in a year. I don't know if they want Jones at $13-15M a year on the books for the next 3 years. And if we are both offering MLE money, wouldn't Jones rather start in DC than play behind Morant in Memphis?

Detroit is going after Brunson. Hayes looks like a bust. Indiana could also go after Brunson while trading Brogdan away.

[DCZards]

This is from a report on this site earlier this week suggesting that the Pacers might target Brunson.

The Indiana Pacers may have interest in free agent point guard Jalen Brunson. Brunson played for current Pacers coach Rick Carlisle when he coached the Dallas Mavericks.

Brunson will be an unrestricted free agent this summer. In a relatively shallow free agent class, Brunson is considered one of the best players available. He's expected to have a fairly wide range of suitors, because of his ability to play both on and off the ball.

[nate33]

Yeah, I could see how there might be a bit of a bidding war with Brunson. Brunson is still pretty young, and he has the scoring ability in that one might consider him a "star" who could be a focal point of an offense. Teams could pay $18-20M for a guy with that type of profile.

Tyus Jones is more of a "stable vet" type of guy though. He is solid, but nobody is confusing him as a guy who will be in the All-Star game anytime soon. Teams would surely love to have a guy like that, but they're only going to pay him more than MLE money if they have room to play him for 32 minutes a night. The under-the-cap teams don't really have the minutes available.

[NatP4]

This is from a report on this site earlier this week suggesting that the Pacers might target Brunson.

The Indiana Pacers may have interest in free agent point guard Jalen Brunson. Brunson played for current Pacers coach Rick Carlisle when he coached the Dallas Mavericks.

Brunson will be an unrestricted free agent this summer. In a relatively shallow free agent class, Brunson is considered one of the best players available. He's expected to have a fairly wide range of suitors, because of his ability to play both on and off the ball.

As he should, because he’s a great player. We should be at the front of the line.

We gave Dinwiddie 20 million per coming off a torn ACL. Brunson is worth atleast that.

[dckingsfan]

I don't see why Memphis wouldn't sign Jones. He would then be moveable later in a package. I could see them trying to package their two first round picks to move up in the draft as well. That would give them their 15 under contract for next year.

[NatP4]

I’m not a salary cap guy at all, but you’ve gotta think Dallas would be interested in veteran role players like Kuzma and KCP in a sign and trade. Much better than losing Brunson for nothing. We could give them back that 2nd round pick and maybe another future 2nd and just outbid everyone else for Brunson. He’s easily worth 20-24 million per IMO.

Not many guards give you 18-5-5 on 60% TS, limit the TOs and play good defense. You get him for age 26,27,28,29 seasons. He’s an impact player that is every bit as good as Beal. Go get him.

Draft Daniels at 10 and you have completely solved your problems at guard. You can easily flip Brunson and Beal in a couple years if things are going nowhere.

[NatP4]

In a dream scenario, Keegan Murray falls a bit because of his age, and ends up in the 6-8 range, and we trade a future 1st to jump up and get him. Then we make the sign and trade of Kuzma for Brunson.

All of the sudden you added two quality starters.

[nate33]

I’m not a salary cap guy at all, but you’ve gotta think Dallas would be interested in veteran role players like Kuzma and KCP in a sign and trade. Much better than losing Brunson for nothing. We could give them back that 2nd round pick and maybe another future 2nd and just outbid everyone else for Brunson. He’s easily worth 20-24 million per IMO.

Not many guards give you 18-5-5 on 60% TS, limit the TOs and play good defense. You get him for age 26,27,28,29 seasons. He’s an impact player that is every bit as good as Beal. Go get him.

Draft Daniels at 10 and you have completely solved your problems at guard. You can easily flip Brunson and Beal in a couple years if things are going nowhere.

The issue with Dallas is that they are already $4M over the luxtax assuming Brunson departs with no compensation whatsoever. Resigning Brunson or involving him in a S&T means they have to add more salary, and the luxtax penalties can get really massive once you are more than $5M over the luxtax.

[nate33]

In a dream scenario, Keegan Murray falls a bit because of his age, and ends up in the 6-8 range, and we trade a future 1st to jump up and get him. Then we make the sign and trade of Kuzma for Brunson.

All of the sudden you added two quality starters.

I would not sacrifice a future first to jump 4 spots in this draft. I don't think the gap between Keegan Murray and, say, Eason, Daniels or Sharpe, is worth a 1st round pick. Not on a team like us whom one can reliably expect to pick in the top 20 every year for the rest of eternity (meaning that future pick we trade is likely to be fairly high).

Generally speaking, trading a future 1st is something you do after you've become good and you are looking to become great. It's extremely risky to do so when you suck and you're just hoping to become decent.