Welcome James Harden!

[Mik317]

the funniest thing is that Harden is playing exactly like we wanted Ben to play in the halfcourt./

there still probably will be time in which we want/need him to look to score more but as of right now, getting others going and getting Biid easy looks is exactly what this team has been missing.

[Ferry Avenue]

the funniest thing is that Harden is playing exactly like we wanted Ben to play in the halfcourt./

there still probably will be time in which we want/need him to look to score more but as of right now, getting others going and getting Biid easy looks is exactly what this team has been missing.

He's definitely a top-notch facilitator, but games on the road against Miami/Boston/Brooklyn/Milwaukee probably won't come down to a last-second shot, and if they do, such a last-second shot, if taken by Embiid or anyone else, has far less of a chance of being successful than if taken by "Houston Harden." The team will simply need as many players as possible -- and certainly a key person who can be counted on routinely -- who can pour in points over the last several minutes of games against those teams.

The last-second three-pointer by Embiid the other night was certainly glorious, but it's not a recipe for winning on the road against the better remaining teams in the East.

[Wilfried]

Thing is he doesn't need to score 30 like it was in Houston

But agree he should be able to take over some games offensively, when we need him.

Think he did a very good job scoring and attacking in the first half of game 3 (and keeping us in the game), when Joel was not delivering. After that, Joel took over.

[Mik317]

idk as long as others are doing the scoring, I don't think its much of a problem. I'm ok with Harden picking his spots as long as Maxey and Tobias has it going like they have been. In this series, Harden has kept the team afloat and ended some Toronto runs w/ his scoring.

Honestly, I think the move for other teams is to bait Harden (and Embiid) into trying to solo. Toronto treating Harden like Houston Harden has lead to a lot of open looks, if it was me, I'd challenge him to see if he can beat guys off the dribble. They tried it last game and he actually did get easy ass layups tho.

[Ferry Avenue]

idk as long as others are doing the scoring, I don't think its much of a problem. I'm ok with Harden picking his spots as long as Maxey and Tobias has it going like they have been. In this series, Harden has kept the team afloat and ended some Toronto runs w/ his scoring.

Honestly, I think the move for other teams is to bait Harden (and Embiid) into trying to solo. Toronto treating Harden like Houston Harden has lead to a lot of open looks, if it was me, I'd challenge him to see if he can beat guys off the dribble. They tried it last game and he actually did get easy ass layups tho.

Remember that what we're talking about here is winning a championship, not just beating Toronto.

So when you have the likes of Curry/Booker/Paul/Giannis/Middleton/KD/Kyrie/Brown/Tatum/Butler taking over games and pouring in points in the clutch, you'd better have some serious firepower and reliable scoring at those times in games if you're going to get by three of those teams, while winning several times on the road. Those road games are incredibly unlikely to be won unless all hands are on deck and playing at a very high level.

This playoff run gets a whole lot harder starting in the next round, when in all likelihood the team will have two games in Miami to start the series. At that point it'll become readily apparent that they need all the help they can get. That may not be as apparent now because they're playing a far weaker team than those other teams.

[mjkvol]

idk as long as others are doing the scoring, I don't think its much of a problem. I'm ok with Harden picking his spots as long as Maxey and Tobias has it going like they have been. In this series, Harden has kept the team afloat and ended some Toronto runs w/ his scoring.

Honestly, I think the move for other teams is to bait Harden (and Embiid) into trying to solo. Toronto treating Harden like Houston Harden has lead to a lot of open looks, if it was me, I'd challenge him to see if he can beat guys off the dribble. They tried it last game and he actually did get easy ass layups tho.

Agree with this. The fact is that he is no longer, and will never be "Houston Harden" again, so waiting for that guy to show up is tantamount to expecting a unicorn to appear - it ain't happening.

And we don't need it to happen. We need Harden to pick his spots to attack when the opportunity is there, and otherwise to do what he has done, which is making Maxey look like an all-NBA player, turning Tobias into an efficient scoring wing, creating open looks for our shooters, and to keep pounding the P&R with Embiid.

We saw the stark reality of what this team looks like without Harden on the floor in the OT the other night, and it wasn't pretty. We escaped with the W, but that kind of offense won't come close to cutting it against better teams.

[Ferry Avenue]

Harden's first four games with the Sixers compared to his other 20 with the team since then, including the playoffs:

First four: 59% FG%
Last 20: 37% FG%

First four: 49% 3P%
Last 20: 30% 3P%

First four: 12 assists
Last 20: 10 assists

First four: 26.8 points
Last 20: 19.5 points

First four: 17.3 +/-
Last 20: 5.6 +/-

The differences in FG%, 3P%, and points are statistically significant even when sample size is considered, meaning that those differences are highly unlikely due to random variation alone.

[Mik317]

the key point was if the others continue to do the scoring. You mention Curry and them...when the fact is that Embiid is our go to guy..for better or for worse lol.

We can't do it like other teams because our best player is our center. Our end of game play needs to be a PNR looking to get Biid a shot. It probably will be a "heres the ball...go bail us out big guy" play tho lol. But the idea is that you don't let it get to the final shot IMO. Harden is not that guy anymore (probably never was due to his aversion to mid range jumpers IMO) and whether or not that is worth the max isn't my problem and not something I care about right now. The current set up has worked. Forcing Harden to score more has not been shown to work so far...go with what has until it doesn't. Miami is really good but they have exploitable defenders that will make it tough for them to blow up our current offense too IMO. Doesn't mean we steamroll them of course but I am not worried about Harden yet based off of what we have seen from him this post season. That might change against better teams but right now I have some confidence.

also you keep mentioning road games...we were pretty good on the road this season.

[blargh]

Harden's first four games with the Sixers compared to his other 20 with the team since then, including the playoffs:

First four: 59% FG%
Last 20: 37% FG%

First four: 49% 3P%
Last 20: 30% 3P%

First four: 12 assists
Last 20: 10 assists

First four: 26.8 points
Last 20: 19.5 points

First four: 17.3 +/-
Last 20: 5.6 +/-

The differences in FG%, 3P%, and points are statistically significant even when sample size is considered, meaning that those differences are highly unlikely due to random variation alone.

I’d be curious to see the statistics you’re using here, and specifically your rationale for why a cutoff between the first 4 and last 20 days is meaningful (otherwise you need to apply a multiple testing correction)

[Ferry Avenue]

Harden's first four games with the Sixers compared to his other 20 with the team since then, including the playoffs:

First four: 59% FG%
Last 20: 37% FG%

First four: 49% 3P%
Last 20: 30% 3P%

First four: 12 assists
Last 20: 10 assists

First four: 26.8 points
Last 20: 19.5 points

First four: 17.3 +/-
Last 20: 5.6 +/-

The differences in FG%, 3P%, and points are statistically significant even when sample size is considered, meaning that those differences are highly unlikely due to random variation alone.

I’d be curious to see the statistics you’re using here, and specifically your rationale for why a cutoff between the first 4 and last 20 days is meaningful (otherwise you need to apply a multiple testing correction)

The statistics are here:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hardeja01/gamelog/2022

The rationale for the cutoff is that it was seemingly when it was widely perceived that Harden appeared to lose a gear in his game. The point about a multiple testing correction is apropos, but consider that if we focus on points alone the result is highly meaningful -- p = 0.028 -- in relation to quite an important statistic in the game. The other findings (FG% and 3P%) are simply building blocks of points. And the finding isn't explained by his becoming "more of a distributor and less of a scorer," because his number of assists per game was in fact higher (though non-significantly so) during the initial four-game stretch.

[Ferry Avenue]

the key point was if the others continue to do the scoring. You mention Curry and them...when the fact is that Embiid is our go to guy..for better or for worse lol.

We can't do it like other teams because our best player is our center. Our end of game play needs to be a PNR looking to get Biid a shot. It probably will be a "heres the ball...go bail us out big guy" play tho lol. But the idea is that you don't let it get to the final shot IMO. Harden is not that guy anymore (probably never was due to his aversion to mid range jumpers IMO) and whether or not that is worth the max isn't my problem and not something I care about right now. The current set up has worked. Forcing Harden to score more has not been shown to work so far...go with what has until it doesn't. Miami is really good but they have exploitable defenders that will make it tough for them to blow up our current offense too IMO. Doesn't mean we steamroll them of course but I am not worried about Harden yet based off of what we have seen from him this post season. That might change against better teams but right now I have some confidence.

also you keep mentioning road games...we were pretty good on the road this season.

The part I bolded and underlined above is precisely the issue -- the latter of those approaches hasn't worked in years in the playoffs (the other night was an anomaly), and the former of them is far less formidable in terms of scoring when the opposition can simply switch its 5 from Embiid to Harden and have Harden be unable to blow by him. That throws a serious wrench into what was thought to be a very potent pairing.

And Harden doesn't have to be "Houston Harden" to blow by a 5 and get to the rim, but as "Philly Harden" he's had trouble doing so. I'd settle for something in between where he can simply blow by 5s reliably, while perhaps continuing to have trouble blowing by anybody else. That alone would make the PnR you're talking about far more effective, while possibly eradicating the "here's the ball" to Embiid approach you outlined, which is notoriously unreliable in the playoffs.

Either way, Harden has to do something more than what he's doing right now to address this issue in my opinion.

[Sixteen]

If harden can get his shot to start falling with some regularity, he doesn't need that elite first step he had in Houston. Curry is not as quick or athletic as he once was, but players still have to respect God tier shot making ability

[Jailblazers7]

Harden has been good this series and appears to have more explosiveness than the end of the regular season. He beating defenders 1on1 pretty regularly and his shot looks good. If he starts getting his floater to fall, he’ll be totally fine and those percentages will go up.

At this point, I feel good about him in any series (except against Boston) and think he’ll come back rejuvenated next year. Fingers crossed, but this will be his first offseason in 3 years where he’s invested in his team and ready to compete for a title.

[Ferry Avenue]

Harden has been good this series and appears to have more explosiveness than the end of the regular season. He beating defenders 1on1 pretty regularly and his shot looks good. If he starts getting his floater to fall, he’ll be totally fine and those percentages will go up.

At this point, I feel good about him in any series (except against Boston) and think he’ll come back rejuvenated next year. Fingers crossed, but this will be his first offseason in 3 years where he’s invested in his team and ready to compete for a title.

His 3P% so far in the series is 47%, so that's a vast and very important improvement.

[Jailblazers7]

One odd thing I noted is that Harden seems to be losing his dribble in iso situations more often than I’d expect. He lost it multiple times doing that repeated between the legs, rock you to sleep move he loves. Not sure if that’s just randomness or if I’m just overemphasizing his mistakes but it feels like it keeps happening.

[blargh]

Harden's first four games with the Sixers compared to his other 20 with the team since then, including the playoffs:

First four: 59% FG%
Last 20: 37% FG%

First four: 49% 3P%
Last 20: 30% 3P%

First four: 12 assists
Last 20: 10 assists

First four: 26.8 points
Last 20: 19.5 points

First four: 17.3 +/-
Last 20: 5.6 +/-

The differences in FG%, 3P%, and points are statistically significant even when sample size is considered, meaning that those differences are highly unlikely due to random variation alone.

I’d be curious to see the statistics you’re using here, and specifically your rationale for why a cutoff between the first 4 and last 20 days is meaningful (otherwise you need to apply a multiple testing correction)

The statistics are here:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hardeja01/gamelog/2022

The rationale for the cutoff is that it was seemingly when it was widely perceived that Harden appeared to lose a gear in his game. The point about a multiple testing correction is apropos, but consider that if we focus on points alone the result is highly meaningful -- p = 0.028 -- in relation to quite an important statistic in the game. The other findings (FG% and 3P%) are simply building blocks of points. And the finding isn't explained by his becoming "more of a distributor and less of a scorer," because his number of assists per game was in fact higher (though non-significantly so) during the initial four-game stretch.

So I think the right way to think about that statistical significance is: Yes, your eyes are not fooling you, he played better in those first 4 games. But it doesn’t tell you necessarily that the last 20 games is more predictive of future performance than the full 24.

[Ferry Avenue]

I’d be curious to see the statistics you’re using here, and specifically your rationale for why a cutoff between the first 4 and last 20 days is meaningful (otherwise you need to apply a multiple testing correction)

The statistics are here:

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hardeja01/gamelog/2022

The rationale for the cutoff is that it was seemingly when it was widely perceived that Harden appeared to lose a gear in his game. The point about a multiple testing correction is apropos, but consider that if we focus on points alone the result is highly meaningful -- p = 0.028 -- in relation to quite an important statistic in the game. The other findings (FG% and 3P%) are simply building blocks of points. And the finding isn't explained by his becoming "more of a distributor and less of a scorer," because his number of assists per game was in fact higher (though non-significantly so) during the initial four-game stretch.

So I think the right way to think about that statistical significance is: Yes, your eyes are not fooling you, he played better in those first 4 games. But it doesn’t tell you necessarily that the last 20 games is more predictive of future performance than the full 24.

No it's certainly more about how significant the drop-off is in his performance as a function of losing a gear in his play. When the "eye test" tells us he's lost a gear, it translates to something highly significant in his performance, and we should then look for some sort of recapturing of that if we want him to function at the level he was when he first joined the team. I for one believe that's the key ingredient of these playoffs.

[Ferry Avenue]

Today's game was the kind in which the team needed 30+ from Harden as the primary scorer. Unfortunately he doesn't appear to have that capacity anymore. Instead Pascal Siakam had that game.

[Ferry Avenue]

Thing is he doesn't need to score 30 like it was in Houston

He did today. And there will be other games in the playoffs in which he needs to as well.

[okboomer]

He doesnt have the ability to get by his man like he did with the Rockets and that isnt coming back. he is what he is.