Offseason Plan

[dckingsfan]

I think the key is that Brunson, and Jones not to mention Wright and Satoransky will all be available.

The question is - would you rather have Brunson or Beal?

[nate33]

I think the key is that Brunson, and Jones not to mention Wright and Satoransky will all be available.

The question is - would you rather have Brunson or Beal?

I'd much rather have Brunson at $20M than Beal at $45M. I can tell you that.

[dckingsfan]

I think the key is that Brunson, and Jones not to mention Wright and Satoransky will all be available.

The question is - would you rather have Brunson or Beal?

I'd much rather have Brunson at $20M than Beal at $45M. I can tell you that.

Make it so Tommy.

[nate33]

I think the key is that Brunson, and Jones not to mention Wright and Satoransky will all be available.

The question is - would you rather have Brunson or Beal?

I'd much rather have Brunson at $20M than Beal at $45M. I can tell you that.

Make it so Tommy.

I hadn't really thought about going the cap room route.

If we just let Beal walk and refrained from opting in on KCP's final year at $14M, we'd have a payroll of just $72M, counting our draft pick. Assuming a $122M salary cap, that's $50M in cap room. We could sign Brunson for $18M and Zach LaVine for $32M.

To be fair, LaVine is probably eying a 30% max deal which would pay him $36M, and Chicago would presumably offer it to him. But is he happy being 2nd fiddle behind DeRozan? He is unrestricted so he can do what he wants.

Brunson is 25, Porzingis and Kuzma are 26, and LaVine is just 5 months older than Porzingis at 27. Add in our lotto pick, Avdija, Kispert, Gafford and Hachimura and that's a pretty good young core of guys with their full prime still ahead of them.

[gambitx777]

I'd much rather have Brunson at $20M than Beal at $45M. I can tell you that.

Make it so Tommy.

I hadn't really thought about going the cap room route.

If we just let Beal walk and refrained from opting in on KCP's final year at $14M, we'd have a payroll of just $72M, counting our draft pick. Assuming a $122M salary cap, that's $50M in cap room. We could sign Brunson for $18M and Zach LaVine for $32M.

To be fair, LaVine is probably eying a 30% max deal which would pay him $36M, and Chicago would presumably offer it to him. But is he happy being 2nd fiddle behind DeRozan? He is unrestricted so he can do what he wants.

Brunson is 25, Porzingis and Kuzma are 26, and LaVine is just 5 months older than Porzingis at 27. Add in our lotto pick, Avdija, Kispert, Gafford and Hachimura and that's a pretty good young core of guys with their full prime still ahead of them.

Any one who thinks brunson it gonna get 18 in this PG market is insane. He's gonna get way more over paid than that. 25 ish even. I'd say he's worth about 15-18 but he's gonna get that bad FA class money.

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[payitforward]

Luxury tax is estimated at $148,254,400 by spotrac and the salary cap at $122,000,000.

[edit] I cut my salary table for space saving, since it wasn't really relevant to where the discussion went to.

Assuming you trade for Brunson this season one of those Todd/Cary salaries is traded in the deal. So in reality you are around $7.5m-$7.7m below the tax line with 12 players on the roster.

So, you'd add 3 vet minimum players to get to 15. You stay under the tax line.

The main questions, for me, are what might that team be able to accomplish in the '22-23 season? Would it contend in the East? & what is the direction in which it would be heading? Would it be moving us towards contending in the East?

I could be wrong, obviously. But I don't like the answers to those questions as I see them. Which amounts to saying that I don't think this would help us build a contender.

I certainly can't see us being much better next year just b/c we've added Brunson (who is a very good player, of course). Then, the following year Gafford earns an extra $10m. &, if Rui has blown up as a player? Surely we'd want to keep him, right? Ok, add another $8-10m. How about Deni the following year?

I don't see a way to build a winner here. Thus, even though Brad's going to re-sign & is a good player, it seems obvious to me that it's time to rebuild -- time to create the next generation of the Wizards.

To support my point, it seems to me that all I have to do is reference the fact that every year for the last several we've had this same discussion. Because, every year we have the same failure.

You don't have to agree with me, obviously! But, I don't think our problem is that "we need a point guard," whereupon the way to solve the problem is "let's go sign a point guard."

I think our problem is our unwillingness to recognize failure & start to rebuild.

Apologies, pif, I did keep this in mind, but just never got around to responding properly for meh-irl reasons.

My overall instinct (without looking at the specifics of the situations) is that non-sucessful teams should typically tear/burn it all down and keep doing that until something sticks. Now obviously, if you are the Lakers that's a plan, but also you can creep off the fact that players would like to live in LA etc. However, as a general principle I think this is the only realistic way for teams in most of these situations. I'm a huge fan of Hinkie's "Process" and I think what Presti is doing in OKC is insanely great. Who knows whether it will actually lead OKC to competing realistically to win the Championship, but it's way. way better as a strategy than whatever the Wizards and the Knicks (and, well, one could mention some other teams, but let's leave it there) have done over the last couple of decades.

So, I'm extremely sympathetic to your perspective here. How much does one want to pay, eg, Rui, if the team is treadmilling, even if he's showing signs of improvement? And what does that mean? (I'm a bit more positive about Gaff and I think $10m/yr about par for the course for what he gives, even for a #20-ranked team, but I take the point you are making.)

Despite that, I do think (naively .. on the basis of watching the last ~25 Wizards games this year) that the Wizards young players are doing pretty well in terms of development. Deni and Kispert, whilst of course having things to work on, seem to be coming on at least as well and probably better than one's expectation would have been. I haven't suffered watching years of Rui, but right now he seems reasonable. Idk. So I don't think really any of that needs shipping out for picks and junk salary, for example.

However, and here is where we are just going to have a radical disagreement - and, to be completely honest, I simply don't want to get into a long conversation about this, I don't think the Wizards are currently in the treadmilling situation they've been in ... *provided that Beal comes back as he was ~2 years ago*. (If Beal is declining sharply - and I keep asking you guys to keep me in check on this, because I simply haven't spent the time watching him or looking at his stats to have any kind of informed opinion on him - then, yes, maybe one goes back to selling him for whatever you can get and strip the team for picks.)

And this is because I take KP to be at a higher level than, for example, Beal's peak so far as a player - when he's not recovering from season-ending contact injuries. Positionally, I do (unsurprisingly) rate Jokic and Embiid above him, but he's really the #3 spacing+rim-protecting-C. And I don't think it's even particularly close. KAT is the closest but his defence really puts him in a tier below. Now, it's not that KP's game has no flaws, but if Beal really is still an all NBA player then KP-Beal is an incredibly strong starting point for a team. So I don't think this is the time for tearing everything down and starting over. Rather, I think the Wizards should take KP-Beal and throw in JB and the best of their young players who are semi-ready (and whatever they have in terms of vets and draftees and ... ) and go for it with that over the next four years.

This is certainly a reasonable POV, & it's presented with some thoughtful supporting arguments.

You point to the key question, & take a stand, when you write, "I don't think the Wizards are currently in the treadmilling situation they've been in...." If that's true, then something terrific has happened.

Only... I don't exactly see how it can be true. We went 35-47. That's "treadmilling" to me given the 3 previous seasons.

But, of course you are looking at 2 other factors, the first being KP. We went 7-10 w/ him on board. That's not an improvement over the overall season. OTOH, I'm sure it's an improvement over the 17 game stretch just before he joined us. Still... 7-10 is not usually viewed as something to make a fan feel positive about the future!

As well -- although I don't really want to get too far into this -- I don't think KP played as well in that 17 game stretch as some others here do. Don't get me wrong -- he played well. & he had a positive effect on some of our other players as well. I'm not criticizing him -- not at all. But, rating him w/ Jokic & Embiid in any sense at all strikes me as way off base.

Still, just like you, I don't want to have an extended back and forth on this. We'll get to see next year. I'll be happier if you're right than if I am!

[trast66]

Make it so Tommy.

I hadn't really thought about going the cap room route.

If we just let Beal walk and refrained from opting in on KCP's final year at $14M, we'd have a payroll of just $72M, counting our draft pick. Assuming a $122M salary cap, that's $50M in cap room. We could sign Brunson for $18M and Zach LaVine for $32M.

To be fair, LaVine is probably eying a 30% max deal which would pay him $36M, and Chicago would presumably offer it to him. But is he happy being 2nd fiddle behind DeRozan? He is unrestricted so he can do what he wants.

Brunson is 25, Porzingis and Kuzma are 26, and LaVine is just 5 months older than Porzingis at 27. Add in our lotto pick, Avdija, Kispert, Gafford and Hachimura and that's a pretty good young core of guys with their full prime still ahead of them.

Any one who thinks brunson it gonna get 18 in this PG market is insane. He's gonna get way more over paid than that. 25 ish even. I'd say he's worth about 15-18 but he's gonna get that bad FA class money.

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Correct. Dallas won’t start at less than 4/90 offer.

[DCZards]

This is certainly a reasonable POV, & it's presented with some thoughtful supporting arguments.

You point to the key question, & take a stand, when you write, "I don't think the Wizards are currently in the treadmilling situation they've been in...." If that's true, then something terrific has happened.

Only... I don't exactly see how it can be true. We went 35-47. That's "treadmilling" to me given the 3 previous seasons.

But, of course you are looking at 2 other factors, the first being KP. We went 7-10 w/ him on board. That's not an improvement over the overall season. OTOH, I'm sure it's an improvement over the 17 game stretch just before he joined us. Still... 7-10 is not usually viewed as something to make a fan feel positive about the future!

As well -- although I don't really want to get too far into this -- I don't think KP played as well in that 17 game stretch as some others here do. Don't get me wrong -- he played well. & he had a positive effect on some of our other players as well. I'm not criticizing him -- not at all. But, rating him w/ Jokic & Embiid in any sense at all strikes me as way off base.

Still, just like you, I don't want to have an extended back and forth on this. We'll get to see next year. I'll be happier if you're right than if I am!

PIF, I don't think B8RcDeMktfxC was pointing solely to the addition of KP as a reason to feel at least somewhat positive about the future. I believe he was moreso pointing to the potential teaming of KP & Beal.

[B8RcDeMktfxC]

So, you'd add 3 vet minimum players to get to 15. You stay under the tax line.

The main questions, for me, are what might that team be able to accomplish in the '22-23 season? Would it contend in the East? & what is the direction in which it would be heading? Would it be moving us towards contending in the East?

I could be wrong, obviously. But I don't like the answers to those questions as I see them. Which amounts to saying that I don't think this would help us build a contender.

I certainly can't see us being much better next year just b/c we've added Brunson (who is a very good player, of course). Then, the following year Gafford earns an extra $10m. &, if Rui has blown up as a player? Surely we'd want to keep him, right? Ok, add another $8-10m. How about Deni the following year?

I don't see a way to build a winner here. Thus, even though Brad's going to re-sign & is a good player, it seems obvious to me that it's time to rebuild -- time to create the next generation of the Wizards.

To support my point, it seems to me that all I have to do is reference the fact that every year for the last several we've had this same discussion. Because, every year we have the same failure.

You don't have to agree with me, obviously! But, I don't think our problem is that "we need a point guard," whereupon the way to solve the problem is "let's go sign a point guard."

I think our problem is our unwillingness to recognize failure & start to rebuild.

Apologies, pif, I did keep this in mind, but just never got around to responding properly for meh-irl reasons.

My overall instinct (without looking at the specifics of the situations) is that non-sucessful teams should typically tear/burn it all down and keep doing that until something sticks. Now obviously, if you are the Lakers that's a plan, but also you can creep off the fact that players would like to live in LA etc. However, as a general principle I think this is the only realistic way for teams in most of these situations. I'm a huge fan of Hinkie's "Process" and I think what Presti is doing in OKC is insanely great. Who knows whether it will actually lead OKC to competing realistically to win the Championship, but it's way. way better as a strategy than whatever the Wizards and the Knicks (and, well, one could mention some other teams, but let's leave it there) have done over the last couple of decades.

So, I'm extremely sympathetic to your perspective here. How much does one want to pay, eg, Rui, if the team is treadmilling, even if he's showing signs of improvement? And what does that mean? (I'm a bit more positive about Gaff and I think $10m/yr about par for the course for what he gives, even for a #20-ranked team, but I take the point you are making.)

Despite that, I do think (naively .. on the basis of watching the last ~25 Wizards games this year) that the Wizards young players are doing pretty well in terms of development. Deni and Kispert, whilst of course having things to work on, seem to be coming on at least as well and probably better than one's expectation would have been. I haven't suffered watching years of Rui, but right now he seems reasonable. Idk. So I don't think really any of that needs shipping out for picks and junk salary, for example.

However, and here is where we are just going to have a radical disagreement - and, to be completely honest, I simply don't want to get into a long conversation about this, I don't think the Wizards are currently in the treadmilling situation they've been in ... *provided that Beal comes back as he was ~2 years ago*. (If Beal is declining sharply - and I keep asking you guys to keep me in check on this, because I simply haven't spent the time watching him or looking at his stats to have any kind of informed opinion on him - then, yes, maybe one goes back to selling him for whatever you can get and strip the team for picks.)

And this is because I take KP to be at a higher level than, for example, Beal's peak so far as a player - when he's not recovering from season-ending contact injuries. Positionally, I do (unsurprisingly) rate Jokic and Embiid above him, but he's really the #3 spacing+rim-protecting-C. And I don't think it's even particularly close. KAT is the closest but his defence really puts him in a tier below. Now, it's not that KP's game has no flaws, but if Beal really is still an all NBA player then KP-Beal is an incredibly strong starting point for a team. So I don't think this is the time for tearing everything down and starting over. Rather, I think the Wizards should take KP-Beal and throw in JB and the best of their young players who are semi-ready (and whatever they have in terms of vets and draftees and ... ) and go for it with that over the next four years.

This is certainly a reasonable POV, & it's presented with some thoughtful supporting arguments.

You point to the key question, & take a stand, when you write, "I don't think the Wizards are currently in the treadmilling situation they've been in...." If that's true, then something terrific has happened.

Only... I don't exactly see how it can be true. We went 35-47. That's "treadmilling" to me given the 3 previous seasons.

But, of course you are looking at 2 other factors, the first being KP. We went 7-10 w/ him on board. That's not an improvement over the overall season. OTOH, I'm sure it's an improvement over the 17 game stretch just before he joined us. Still... 7-10 is not usually viewed as something to make a fan feel positive about the future!

As well -- although I don't really want to get too far into this -- I don't think KP played as well in that 17 game stretch as some others here do. Don't get me wrong -- he played well. & he had a positive effect on some of our other players as well. I'm not criticizing him -- not at all. But, rating him w/ Jokic & Embiid in any sense at all strikes me as way off base.

Still, just like you, I don't want to have an extended back and forth on this. We'll get to see next year. I'll be happier if you're right than if I am!

Very legit response. I understand your worries. I'm just very optimistic, albeit possibly too much, about how KP with Beal could work out, especially if Brunson was added. However, ... yeah, let's see what happens next year.

[B8RcDeMktfxC]

This is certainly a reasonable POV, & it's presented with some thoughtful supporting arguments.

You point to the key question, & take a stand, when you write, "I don't think the Wizards are currently in the treadmilling situation they've been in...." If that's true, then something terrific has happened.

Only... I don't exactly see how it can be true. We went 35-47. That's "treadmilling" to me given the 3 previous seasons.

But, of course you are looking at 2 other factors, the first being KP. We went 7-10 w/ him on board. That's not an improvement over the overall season. OTOH, I'm sure it's an improvement over the 17 game stretch just before he joined us. Still... 7-10 is not usually viewed as something to make a fan feel positive about the future!

As well -- although I don't really want to get too far into this -- I don't think KP played as well in that 17 game stretch as some others here do. Don't get me wrong -- he played well. & he had a positive effect on some of our other players as well. I'm not criticizing him -- not at all. But, rating him w/ Jokic & Embiid in any sense at all strikes me as way off base.

Still, just like you, I don't want to have an extended back and forth on this. We'll get to see next year. I'll be happier if you're right than if I am!

PIF, I don't think B8RcDeMktfxC was pointing solely to the addition of KP as a reason to feel at least somewhat positive about the future. I believe he was moreso pointing to the potential teaming of KP & Beal.

Maybe I'm a little hesitant to be too strong in my takes here. However, for me it really is that adding KP that gives the Wizards a huge boost in immediate equity. (Plus, maybe, I'm a little more upbeat about the Wizards rookie contract players than the average take on this board - but not by a huge amount, for sure.) But, look, essentially, you can't make a team which can reach the East Coast finals without more that one all star player. If Beal is that kind of player when he returns, then my view is that the Wizards have a really legimate shot at being top-4 in the East. Albeit that the competition is pretty fierce, given the Bucks, Celts, 76ers, Nets and Heat. I think this is reasonable because I, particularly, think that Deni and Kispert will be good contributors in the time frame we are looking at: 2022/23-2026/27 (also Gaff if the Wiz keep him), so it's not like the Wizards are starting from a bare cupboard after trading all of their players and picks for all star level players.

Now, to your real implicit question, could/should the Wizards let Beal walk and try to construct around KP? (And if the answer is no then probably the answer is to grab as much assets as you can and start all over again - and that's by far from being a shameful position - as I hinted at in the post to which you are answering the reply - my view is that about a third of the league at least should be doing that most years.)

And that's a tougher question. I lean to yes, again because I think the Wiz's youngsters are pretty decent. But, mkay, I'll be happy to be scolded and told liquidizing all of the assets is the way forward.

[payitforward]

PIF, I don't think B8RcDeMktfxC was pointing solely to the addition of KP as a reason to feel at least somewhat positive about the future. I believe he was moreso pointing to the potential teaming of KP & Beal.

Hey, I love his optimism! Check this out...

...my view is that the Wizards have a really legitimate shot at being top-4 in the East....

This year the #4 team in the East went 51-31. No Bullets/Wizards team has ever won 50 games, & you know as well as I, Zards, that it ain't happening any time soon!

Hope is not a strategy.

I think this is reasonable because I, particularly, think that Deni and Kispert will be good contributors in the time frame we are looking at: 2022/23-2026/27 (also Gaff if the Wiz keep him), so it's not like the Wizards are starting from a bare cupboard after trading all of their players and picks for all star level players....

Deni improved considerably this year. If he improves as much next year, he'll be established as a plus player in the league. Above average. Corey had a good rookie year -- especially given expectations.

That said, we don't have anywhere near the level of players -- not in the same galaxy -- as Philly, Milwaukee, Boston, Brooklyn, Atlanta, Miami, Toronto, Cleveland or Charlotte. For that matter Indy -- a very well run team, almost always -- actually IS rebuilding (instead of dreaming that they don't need to). I'd say it's more likely Detroit passes us in a couple of years than that we jump up the standings.

Now, to your real implicit question, could/should the Wizards let Beal walk and try to construct around KP?...I think the Wiz's youngsters are pretty decent. But, mkay, I'll be happy to be scolded and told liquidating all of the assets is the way forward.

I don't think there's any question at all. I would certainly make every effort to move on from Brad -- how many years in a row do we have to have these same conversations after getting the same result before we actually do something? -- not not to "construct around KP." How much success has any team had based on KP?

But that doesn't mean "liquidating all our assets." It means trading old assets for young ones & picks. It means rebuilding.

[doclinkin]

Maybe I'm a little hesitant to be too strong in my takes here.

Don't sweat it. This is DC we live for a tough and reasonable debate. Strong opinions welcome, especially backed up by facts. Or grammatically correct sentences. Or creative nonsense. Our mods come up understanding that more debate is a good thing, you won't get snuffed for having strong feelings. The only people who ever got bounced from this board were spamming the board with their opinions and crowding out other voices. And one of them was a Wizards fan. Hell, we have both a politics thread and a thread specifically created for trolls to troll and insult and be insulted. It's all good. Stick around.

[doclinkin]

We won't move on from Brad this offseason. I don't think we offer the Super-max though, we have had 2 players coming off surgery who were maxed out and never performed up to their prior levels, but Tommy was not responsible for either signing. I think Brad gets more than other teams can offer, but that will include player option years.

That said it is possible things are not working out to expectations/hopes and a trade is worked out mid-year. We won't get as much as we would have last year, or the year before, but still Brad under contract is an asset that we control, with value and a built in excuse of rehab if his numbers aren't there. Player, prospect, picks, and a bigass trade exception are reasonable to expect we can recoup from a Brad trade. I don't see a disgruntled star we can swap in a market that Brad would appreciate, but that is likely for the best. Our talent cupboard is missing starting talent, true, but we have holes up and down the roster, we need building blocks for a rebuild. I don't think we get the best value trading one 'star' for another.

If Brad comes back with a 3 pt shot and his off ball game returns then I can see good synergy with Porzingis. It's possible, his non shooting hand is injured, so he won't be working on dribbling as much, but he can put in a hundred thousand jumpers and work his lower body, fitness, core. Put the jump in jump shot. And KPz is enough of a star that I can see an already-paid Brad actually relieved to not have to carry the load by himself.

So. Brad playing off the ball, development from our young core, a playable draft pick or two, a healthy KP, chemistry and a grinder of a coach who has had an offseason to analyze and break down tape. All together we may see incremental improvement, or with synergy, a surprising jump.

Gyms are open. Not shut down by COVID. Deni gets a healthy offseason to work on his handle and jumper and strength. No Olympic pressure on Rui, time to work with the coaching staff. A fully healthy off season for TB if he re-signs. A roster that likely will not have the massive re-shuffling it has had the past few years, time to build chemistry n a system that requires it. A re-signed Satoransky and his good chemistry with Porzingis. Development for rookie Kispert. There are plausible reasons we may see improvement on a young team. Yes "hope is not a strategy", I'm simply saying there are more reasons for hope with a young developing roster than with the Ernie Grunfeld aged-vets-trying-to-earn-one-last-contract special. It is statistically true that in general young players improve with experience.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

This is certainly a reasonable POV, & it's presented with some thoughtful supporting arguments.

You point to the key question, & take a stand, when you write, "I don't think the Wizards are currently in the treadmilling situation they've been in...." If that's true, then something terrific has happened.

Only... I don't exactly see how it can be true. We went 35-47. That's "treadmilling" to me given the 3 previous seasons.

But, of course you are looking at 2 other factors, the first being KP. We went 7-10 w/ him on board. That's not an improvement over the overall season. OTOH, I'm sure it's an improvement over the 17 game stretch just before he joined us. Still... 7-10 is not usually viewed as something to make a fan feel positive about the future!

As well -- although I don't really want to get too far into this -- I don't think KP played as well in that 17 game stretch as some others here do. Don't get me wrong -- he played well. & he had a positive effect on some of our other players as well. I'm not criticizing him -- not at all. But, rating him w/ Jokic & Embiid in any sense at all strikes me as way off base.

Still, just like you, I don't want to have an extended back and forth on this. We'll get to see next year. I'll be happier if you're right than if I am!

PIF, I don't think B8RcDeMktfxC was pointing solely to the addition of KP as a reason to feel at least somewhat positive about the future. I believe he was moreso pointing to the potential teaming of KP & Beal.

Maybe I'm a little hesitant to be too strong in my takes here. However, for me it really is that adding KP that gives the Wizards a huge boost in immediate equity. (Plus, maybe, I'm a little more upbeat about the Wizards rookie contract players than the average take on this board - but not by a huge amount, for sure.) But, look, essentially, you can't make a team which can reach the East Coast finals without more that one all star player. If Beal is that kind of player when he returns, then my view is that the Wizards have a really legimate shot at being top-4 in the East. Albeit that the competition is pretty fierce, given the Bucks, Celts, 76ers, Nets and Heat. I think this is reasonable because I, particularly, think that Deni and Kispert will be good contributors in the time frame we are looking at: 2022/23-2026/27 (also Gaff if the Wiz keep him), so it's not like the Wizards are starting from a bare cupboard after trading all of their players and picks for all star level players.

Now, to your real implicit question, could/should the Wizards let Beal walk and try to construct around KP? (And if the answer is no then probably the answer is to grab as much assets as you can and start all over again - and that's by far from being a shameful position - as I hinted at in the post to which you are answering the reply - my view is that about a third of the league at least should be doing that most years.)

And that's a tougher question. I lean to yes, again because I think the Wiz's youngsters are pretty decent. But, mkay, I'll be happy to be scolded and told liquidizing all of the assets is the way forward.

Please do not apologize for being optimistic. I thought this team could win 51 games this past season. Now, of course, I have been delusional a few times in my life...



The realists on this board have for now convinced me that this team is just going to be mediocre from now until whenever; but, I'm going to try to be optimistic again next season.

Sent from my SM-A526U using RealGM mobile app

[NatP4]

I’m not a salary cap guy at all, but you’ve gotta think Dallas would be interested in veteran role players like Kuzma and KCP in a sign and trade. Much better than losing Brunson for nothing. We could give them back that 2nd round pick and maybe another future 2nd and just outbid everyone else for Brunson. He’s easily worth 20-24 million per IMO.

Not many guards give you 18-5-5 on 60% TS, limit the TOs and play good defense. You get him for age 26,27,28,29 seasons. He’s an impact player that is every bit as good as Beal. Go get him.

Draft Daniels at 10 and you have completely solved your problems at guard. You can easily flip Brunson and Beal in a couple years if things are going nowhere.

The issue with Dallas is that they are already $4M over the luxtax assuming Brunson departs with no compensation whatsoever. Resigning Brunson or involving him in a S&T means they have to add more salary, and the luxtax penalties can get really massive once you are more than $5M over the luxtax.

Well hopefully they trim $ elsewhere. We need to make this deal happen. Not just because Brunson is an elite player that we need, but because moving Kuzma is addition by subtraction. We won’t be anything but mediocre if he continues to be one of the top minutes played guys on the roster.

It’s a fair point that grabbing Eason at 10 and acquiring Brunson is better than giving up an extra future 1st for Murray, even though I think Murray is the best player in the draft, or a 1B to Holmgren.

Right now, the wiz have two main issues on the roster: they get 48 minutes of negative play at the 4 position, and they need a quality starting PG. Eason and Brunson would also be a dream off-season.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

I'd much rather have Brunson at $20M than Beal at $45M. I can tell you that.

Make it so Tommy.

I hadn't really thought about going the cap room route.

If we just let Beal walk and refrained from opting in on KCP's final year at $14M, we'd have a payroll of just $72M, counting our draft pick. Assuming a $122M salary cap, that's $50M in cap room. We could sign Brunson for $18M and Zach LaVine for $32M.

To be fair, LaVine is probably eying a 30% max deal which would pay him $36M, and Chicago would presumably offer it to him. But is he happy being 2nd fiddle behind DeRozan? He is unrestricted so he can do what he wants.

Brunson is 25, Porzingis and Kuzma are 26, and LaVine is just 5 months older than Porzingis at 27. Add in our lotto pick, Avdija, Kispert, Gafford and Hachimura and that's a pretty good young core of guys with their full prime still ahead of them.

Sign me up. That’s a good squad with upside. Lavine is straight up better than Beal IMO

[payitforward]

Maybe I'm a little hesitant to be too strong in my takes here.

Don't sweat it. This is DC we live for a tough and reasonable debate. Strong opinions welcome, especially backed up by facts. Or grammatically correct sentences. Or creative nonsense. Our mods come up understanding that more debate is a good thing, you won't get snuffed for having strong feelings. The only people who ever got bounced from this board were spamming the board with their opinions and crowding out other voices. Hell, we have both a politics thread and a thread specifically created for trolls to troll and insult and be insulted. It's all good. Stick around.

What my man doc said, B8R -- you are a welcome addition to this ragged gang of addicted Wizards whackos!

[nate33]

I think this is my favorite, plausible plan at the moment:

1. Tell Beal he is not getting the full 35% max extension starting at $41.5M. Instead offer him a 5-year extension starting at his the same salary he is scheduled to get if he opts in on his player option: $36.4M. Over 5 years, that would be a 5-year $211M contract - which is no insult to Beal. If he doesn't like it, he can try his luck in free agency this year, or opt in on his player option (at $36.4M) and see if he can make more in free agency next summer. Either way, his cap figure would be $36.4M (or zero).

2. Renounce KCP and Ish Smith

3. With Beal at a cap cost of $36.4M, and KCP and Ish off the books, the Wizards would have $13.4M in cap room. I'd offer to trade Rui Hachimura (at a salary of $6.2M) to Dallas for a resigned Brunson. By unloading Rui, we'd have the cap room to pay Brunson a salary starting at $19.7M with 5% raises. That's 4 years $84.7M. Dallas gets a needed forward who can shoot corner 3's and guard 3 through 5. Rui only costs $6.2M next season, which will keep their luxtax costs in check. Basically, they get a very useful, cheap rotation player at a position of need as consolation for agreeing to a S&T deal. I think it makes good sense for them under the assumption that they can't afford to resign Brunson due to the prohibitive luxtax costs. It's better than letting Brunson walk for nothing. They'd also get a $12M TPE.

4. Draft BPA at #10, whether it's Sharpe, Mathurin, Davis, Eason or Daniels. Our team would be in need of SG for the future and a PF for the future, so any of those guys would be a good fit. Maybe we get lucky and move up to #4 or #5 and land Keegan Murray.

5. Resign Sato for the Room Minimum (up to $4.7M). Resign Gill for the Vet Minimum.

6. Going forward, if Beal is cool with his new contract, that's great. If he sulks about it, then we can always get a mulligan by trading him to LA on December 15th for Westbrook and as many unprotected future picks as we can extract.

Lineup:
Guards: Beal, Brunson, Draft Pick, Sato
Forwards: Kispert, Kuzma, Avdija, Gill, Todd
Centers: Porzingis, Gafford, Carey Jr.

[nate33]

I really like the looks of things in the plan above if we somehow land Sharpe in the draft, and then end up trading Beal for Westbrook and the Lakers 2027 and 2029 unprotected picks. Give the Lakers Kuzma too. I'd like to see us develop a young lineup of:

PG Brunson
SG Sharpe
SF Kispert
PF Avdija
C Porzingis/Gafford

Let them tank for this season (we'd cut Westbrook) and we'd add one more high lotto pick next year plus have enough cap room for a max salary. And when the team starts turning the corner and winning a year or two down the road, we'd get to add even more talent with those Lakers picks.

[badinage]

So, you'd add 3 vet minimum players to get to 15. You stay under the tax line.

The main questions, for me, are what might that team be able to accomplish in the '22-23 season? Would it contend in the East? & what is the direction in which it would be heading? Would it be moving us towards contending in the East?

I could be wrong, obviously. But I don't like the answers to those questions as I see them. Which amounts to saying that I don't think this would help us build a contender.

I certainly can't see us being much better next year just b/c we've added Brunson (who is a very good player, of course). Then, the following year Gafford earns an extra $10m. &, if Rui has blown up as a player? Surely we'd want to keep him, right? Ok, add another $8-10m. How about Deni the following year?

I don't see a way to build a winner here. Thus, even though Brad's going to re-sign & is a good player, it seems obvious to me that it's time to rebuild -- time to create the next generation of the Wizards.

To support my point, it seems to me that all I have to do is reference the fact that every year for the last several we've had this same discussion. Because, every year we have the same failure.

You don't have to agree with me, obviously! But, I don't think our problem is that "we need a point guard," whereupon the way to solve the problem is "let's go sign a point guard."

I think our problem is our unwillingness to recognize failure & start to rebuild.

Apologies, pif, I did keep this in mind, but just never got around to responding properly for meh-irl reasons.

My overall instinct (without looking at the specifics of the situations) is that non-sucessful teams should typically tear/burn it all down and keep doing that until something sticks. Now obviously, if you are the Lakers that's a plan, but also you can creep off the fact that players would like to live in LA etc. However, as a general principle I think this is the only realistic way for teams in most of these situations. I'm a huge fan of Hinkie's "Process" and I think what Presti is doing in OKC is insanely great. Who knows whether it will actually lead OKC to competing realistically to win the Championship, but it's way. way better as a strategy than whatever the Wizards and the Knicks (and, well, one could mention some other teams, but let's leave it there) have done over the last couple of decades.

So, I'm extremely sympathetic to your perspective here. How much does one want to pay, eg, Rui, if the team is treadmilling, even if he's showing signs of improvement? And what does that mean? (I'm a bit more positive about Gaff and I think $10m/yr about par for the course for what he gives, even for a #20-ranked team, but I take the point you are making.)

Despite that, I do think (naively .. on the basis of watching the last ~25 Wizards games this year) that the Wizards young players are doing pretty well in terms of development. Deni and Kispert, whilst of course having things to work on, seem to be coming on at least as well and probably better than one's expectation would have been. I haven't suffered watching years of Rui, but right now he seems reasonable. Idk. So I don't think really any of that needs shipping out for picks and junk salary, for example.

However, and here is where we are just going to have a radical disagreement - and, to be completely honest, I simply don't want to get into a long conversation about this, I don't think the Wizards are currently in the treadmilling situation they've been in ... *provided that Beal comes back as he was ~2 years ago*. (If Beal is declining sharply - and I keep asking you guys to keep me in check on this, because I simply haven't spent the time watching him or looking at his stats to have any kind of informed opinion on him - then, yes, maybe one goes back to selling him for whatever you can get and strip the team for picks.)

And this is because I take KP to be at a higher level than, for example, Beal's peak so far as a player - when he's not recovering from season-ending contact injuries. Positionally, I do (unsurprisingly) rate Jokic and Embiid above him, but he's really the #3 spacing+rim-protecting-C. And I don't think it's even particularly close. KAT is the closest but his defence really puts him in a tier below. Now, it's not that KP's game has no flaws, but if Beal really is still an all NBA player then KP-Beal is an incredibly strong starting point for a team. So I don't think this is the time for tearing everything down and starting over. Rather, I think the Wizards should take KP-Beal and throw in JB and the best of their young players who are semi-ready (and whatever they have in terms of vets and draftees and ... ) and go for it with that over the next four years.

This is certainly a reasonable POV, & it's presented with some thoughtful supporting arguments.

You point to the key question, & take a stand, when you write, "I don't think the Wizards are currently in the treadmilling situation they've been in...." If that's true, then something terrific has happened.

Only... I don't exactly see how it can be true. We went 35-47. That's "treadmilling" to me given the 3 previous seasons.

But, of course you are looking at 2 other factors, the first being KP. We went 7-10 w/ him on board. That's not an improvement over the overall season. OTOH, I'm sure it's an improvement over the 17 game stretch just before he joined us. Still... 7-10 is not usually viewed as something to make a fan feel positive about the future!

As well -- although I don't really want to get too far into this -- I don't think KP played as well in that 17 game stretch as some others here do. Don't get me wrong -- he played well. & he had a positive effect on some of our other players as well. I'm not criticizing him -- not at all. But, rating him w/ Jokic & Embiid in any sense at all strikes me as way off base.

Still, just like you, I don't want to have an extended back and forth on this. We'll get to see next year. I'll be happier if you're right than if I am!

7-10 = playing without a no. 2 (Beal) & often without a no. 3 (Kuzma), & in lineups that included a lot of third-stringers and fourth-stringers (including a third-string point guard).

There was a stretch of games where the next most-lettered player he was playing with was a backup small forward (KCP).