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2022 NBA Draft Talk: Never too soon

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Re: 2022 NBA Draft Talk: Never too soon 

Post#241 » by Neeva » Tue Apr 26, 2022 9:34 pm

shangrila wrote:
Klomp wrote:
Neeva wrote:How about Jaden Hardy? He is mocked in late first round and I honestly think he would be a steal there like Jaden McDaniels was.

26.9% 3-pointers

Not to mention more turnovers than assists, an anemic FTAr and a 2pt% around 40%.

If I squint I can see why people like him but he seems like a guy that you're betting on way too many things changing in order for him to have a role in the NBA.

Those were alot worse when the g league season started lol he got better as it went along and if he hadn’t had such an abysmal start he wouldn’t drop to late first or possible early second round and be a chance at a steal anyway.
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Re: 2022 NBA Draft Talk: Never too soon 

Post#242 » by Neeva » Tue Apr 26, 2022 9:35 pm

Klomp wrote:
Neeva wrote:How about Jaden Hardy? He is mocked in late first round and I honestly think he would be a steal there like Jaden McDaniels was.

26.9% 3-pointers


Yet you list pat baldwin at 26.6 3 point percent in a terrible basketball conference to boot.?
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Re: 2022 NBA Draft Talk: Never too soon 

Post#243 » by shangrila » Tue Apr 26, 2022 9:56 pm

Klomp wrote:
minimus wrote:Can anyone explain how Herbert Jones was drafted with 35th pick? I also believe that our current offensive system built around Towns-Ant-DLo can easily use another defensive minded big wing in place of Vando. I can imagine Vando, Herbert Jones and MCD playing 48 minutes at PF/SF spots.


Similar to how Jarred Vanderbilt fell to 41 (Vanderbilt was also aided by injury). In the 6-foot-6 to 6-9 and 200-230 lb range, GMs are often looking for offense first, and specifically perimeter skills. In some ways, it was an overcorrection that may have started around a decade ago after Michael Kidd-Gilchrist flamed out as the No. 2 pick, again with a similar skill set and build.

Side note: Just realized that one player born about 15 years too soon was Tyrus Thomas. He could've had a nice career in this current era. Another in that same build.

I think Jones' problem was more age and shooting questions.

It's not like the 35th pick is the same as going undrafted, so he wasn't TOTALLY slept on. And given he was nearly 23 by draft night and wasn't a good shooter (he was average to be fair) it makes some sense that teams might look at him and see, say, Josh Okogie. I.e. a great defender that's anemic enough offensively to get played off the floor. Luckily for them (and unluckily for us in Josh's case) Jones has been just good enough offensively (34% from 3) to allow him to remain on the floor and shine defensively.

In terms of who might be this year's version? Well, I threw a stat filter into the college BBref (STL% and BLK% >= 3, DBPM >= 4, Defensive Rating <= 96...basically Jones' career numbers, though his senior year was better than that) and after filtering out guys that don't look like they'll declare (Alex Fudge) or who we know might not be available to us (Tari Eason) the name that popped out to me was Matthew Mayer from Baylor.

And they are very similar statistically. Comparing their senior seasons;

They're basically the same age
Mayer is bigger in terms of both height (6-9 vs 6-7) and weight (225 vs 206)
Can't find a reported wingspan, but most say Mayer's is 6-10 vs Herb's 7ft
Steals/blocks are similar (slight edge to Herb)
Herb was more efficient, but oddly Mayer both improved his FT% and worsened his 3pt% his senior season
Herb has significantly more assists (4.3 vs 1.6) but also turnovers (3.7 vs 1.5)
Advanced stats are basically a wash

Keep in mind I haven't watched any tape of Mayer so a lot of this might just be college domination but still, were I in the FO this is definitely a guy I'd get in for workouts with an eye for an undrafted contract.

Also, Vince Williams Jr from VCU only barely missed the cut (2.9 STL%) and is a significantly better shooter than either. He's shorter though and certainly not a great athlete by NBA standards. Still, this guy's my sleeper for this draft and someone I'd take at 40 easy.
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Re: 2022 NBA Draft Talk: Never too soon 

Post#244 » by shangrila » Tue Apr 26, 2022 10:03 pm

Neeva wrote:
shangrila wrote:
Klomp wrote:26.9% 3-pointers

Not to mention more turnovers than assists, an anemic FTAr and a 2pt% around 40%.

If I squint I can see why people like him but he seems like a guy that you're betting on way too many things changing in order for him to have a role in the NBA.

Those were alot worse when the g league season started lol he got better as it went along and if he hadn’t had such an abysmal start he wouldn’t drop to late first or possible early second round and be a chance at a steal anyway.

Gotta love when someone throws in a "lol".

As for the rest...prove it. Because as far as I can see, his only tangible improvement came in the final 3 games in March. Which is cool, I guess, but it would be moronic to treat those as a better indicator of who he is vs the other 22 games he played (including the 4 games he played in February, where he was a whopping...32% from 3. Yay.)
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Re: 2022 NBA Draft Talk: Never too soon 

Post#245 » by shangrila » Tue Apr 26, 2022 10:08 pm

Neeva wrote:
Klomp wrote:
Neeva wrote:How about Jaden Hardy? He is mocked in late first round and I honestly think he would be a steal there like Jaden McDaniels was.

26.9% 3-pointers


Yet you list pat baldwin at 26.6 3 point percent in a terrible basketball conference to boot.?

Baldwin has the history of elite shooting in high school/international play, is significantly taller and was clearly placed in a role his game wasn't suited for (he's an off ball shooter, not an on ball creator).

Hardy played exactly the same ball dominant style he did all through high school and sucked.

It's not an apples to apples comparison.
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Re: 2022 NBA Draft Talk: Never too soon 

Post#246 » by Neeva » Tue Apr 26, 2022 10:38 pm

We will see you have been dead wrong on prospects before so not sure why you have a condescending know it all tone.
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Re: 2022 NBA Draft Talk: Never too soon 

Post#247 » by shangrila » Tue Apr 26, 2022 11:23 pm

Neeva wrote:We will see you have been dead wrong on prospects before so not sure why you have a condescending know it all tone.

Because I at least try to back up my opinions with facts. And also because this;
Neeva wrote:
shangrila wrote:
Klomp wrote:26.9% 3-pointers

Not to mention more turnovers than assists, an anemic FTAr and a 2pt% around 40%.

If I squint I can see why people like him but he seems like a guy that you're betting on way too many things changing in order for him to have a role in the NBA.

Those were alot worse when the g league season started lol he got better as it went along and if he hadn’t had such an abysmal start he wouldn’t drop to late first or possible early second round and be a chance at a steal anyway.

pisses me off.

You want to have a back and forth with opinions and evidence to back it up? Great, I'm all for it. You want to throw out baseless statements, laugh at push back and, now, run for the hills? Yeah, nah.
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Re: 2022 NBA Draft Talk: Never too soon 

Post#248 » by minimus » Wed Apr 27, 2022 8:55 pm

shangrila wrote:
Klomp wrote:Some guys who could fill roles similar to what we have now or need:

Tari Eason: Probably won't be in range for him, but has some Vanderbilt in his game.
Ochai Agbaji: Would be an easy fit playing off of our studs. He actually reminds me a bunch of Desmond Bane.
Malaki Branham: Has a little of Wayne Ellington/Malik Beasley to him.
Wendell Moore: Another off-ball 3/D play.
Patrick Baldwin: That shot is pure. I see a little bit of McDaniels in him on offense.
Kennedy Chandler: Doubt he has the same bulldog in him, but could profile as a Beverley skill set.

That's actually an interesting comparison. Looking at the Tankathon comparison page, they're nearly identical in the majority of statistics with a few notable differences.

Bane had the higher 3pt%, RPG and APG, while Agbaji had a higher PPG, FTAr and overall efficiency (probably due to the FTs). Some of the differences could come from overall role and team construction too (Agbaji has a significantly lower AST:TO ratio but he was more of a finisher vs Bane who was TCU's offensive hub his final year, while the difference in rebounding could be explained by Agbaji playing with a guy like Braun (6.8rpg)).

What I worry about with Agbaji is the steals. His steal rate is worse than Bane's by a significant enough margin that I'd worry about his IQ on that end. He is, undoubtedly, the better athlete; not just in terms of hops but he'll easily blow Bane's "negative" wingspan out of the park. But if he isn't smart it will put a cap on him on that side.

Overall I wouldn't be upset with Agbaji, especially if they're moving Beasley and/if he measures closer to 6-6 (or can cover SFs) since that would give us some interesting lineup options moving forward. But Bane developed in an interesting way that I don't think many expected (his one dribble pull up game is why he's so lethal and he didn't show much if any of that in college IIRC) and that I'm not sure Agbaji will do himself.

One question though. What if we replace Beasley in starting lineup with someone who can shoot 40% from the field AND can defend? Someone around 6’6” 205-220 lbs and positive wingspan to height ratio. Ideally someone who can make simple pass. Let say Wendell Moore.

How good will be this lineup: Towns-MCD-Moore-Edwards-Beverley?
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Re: 2022 NBA Draft Talk: Never too soon 

Post#249 » by BlacJacMac » Wed Apr 27, 2022 9:31 pm

minimus wrote:One question though. What if we replace Beasley in starting lineup with someone who can shoot 40% from the field AND can defend? Someone around 6’6” 205-220 lbs and positive wingspan to height ratio. Ideally someone who can make simple pass. Let say Wendell Moore.

How good will be this lineup: Towns-MCD-Moore-Edwards-Beverley?


Its intriguing from an offense and defense standpoint, but its really doubling-down on our inability to rebound the ball.
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Re: 2022 NBA Draft Talk: Never too soon 

Post#250 » by shangrila » Wed Apr 27, 2022 9:32 pm

minimus wrote:
shangrila wrote:
Klomp wrote:Some guys who could fill roles similar to what we have now or need:

Tari Eason: Probably won't be in range for him, but has some Vanderbilt in his game.
Ochai Agbaji: Would be an easy fit playing off of our studs. He actually reminds me a bunch of Desmond Bane.
Malaki Branham: Has a little of Wayne Ellington/Malik Beasley to him.
Wendell Moore: Another off-ball 3/D play.
Patrick Baldwin: That shot is pure. I see a little bit of McDaniels in him on offense.
Kennedy Chandler: Doubt he has the same bulldog in him, but could profile as a Beverley skill set.

That's actually an interesting comparison. Looking at the Tankathon comparison page, they're nearly identical in the majority of statistics with a few notable differences.

Bane had the higher 3pt%, RPG and APG, while Agbaji had a higher PPG, FTAr and overall efficiency (probably due to the FTs). Some of the differences could come from overall role and team construction too (Agbaji has a significantly lower AST:TO ratio but he was more of a finisher vs Bane who was TCU's offensive hub his final year, while the difference in rebounding could be explained by Agbaji playing with a guy like Braun (6.8rpg)).

What I worry about with Agbaji is the steals. His steal rate is worse than Bane's by a significant enough margin that I'd worry about his IQ on that end. He is, undoubtedly, the better athlete; not just in terms of hops but he'll easily blow Bane's "negative" wingspan out of the park. But if he isn't smart it will put a cap on him on that side.

Overall I wouldn't be upset with Agbaji, especially if they're moving Beasley and/if he measures closer to 6-6 (or can cover SFs) since that would give us some interesting lineup options moving forward. But Bane developed in an interesting way that I don't think many expected (his one dribble pull up game is why he's so lethal and he didn't show much if any of that in college IIRC) and that I'm not sure Agbaji will do himself.

One question though. What if we replace Beasley in starting lineup with someone who can shoot 40% from the field AND can defend? Someone around 6’6” 205-220 lbs and positive wingspan to height ratio. Ideally someone who can make simple pass. Let say Wendell Moore.

How good will be this lineup: Towns-MCD-Moore-Edwards-Beverley?

For all the crap DLo gets, and rightfully so, it's still important to recognise that he's the PG that runs a lot of the offence. That isn't Bev, nor is it Edwards, so unless you can replace it we're instantly going to have issues. I also don't think McDaniels is a starting PF, outside of specific matchups, so there's another potential issue.

It could work, don't get me wrong. It's essentially a better defending, lesser scoring lineup than what we ran to start the season (DLo-Edwards-Okogie-McD-KAT). But it's probably more of a shuffling of the deck than straight improvement.

I'd also have some caution when hoping for Moore to instantly produce. He took years to get comfortable in college and I wouldn't be surprised to see the same thing play out in the NBA.
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Re: 2022 NBA Draft Talk: Never too soon 

Post#251 » by minimus » Thu Apr 28, 2022 12:10 pm

shangrila wrote:I'd also have some caution when hoping for Moore to instantly produce. He took years to get comfortable in college and I wouldn't be surprised to see the same thing play out in the NBA.


Thank you! I don't know why, but he is my favourite prospect at SF/SG position

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Re: 2022 NBA Draft Talk: Never too soon 

Post#252 » by moss_is_1 » Thu Apr 28, 2022 1:44 pm

Yeah I've been looking at Moore also. I think he can play some PG and off the ball.

Another name is Jabari Walker. Especially if he slides into the 2nd round. Could be a Prince replacement.
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Re: 2022 NBA Draft Talk: Never too soon 

Post#253 » by shangrila » Thu Apr 28, 2022 8:49 pm

minimus wrote:
shangrila wrote:I'd also have some caution when hoping for Moore to instantly produce. He took years to get comfortable in college and I wouldn't be surprised to see the same thing play out in the NBA.


Thank you! I don't know why, but he is my favourite prospect at SF/SG position


For the record I don't hate him, I'll state that up front, but you guys might have missed the point I made there.

Moore is a guy I'd be careful of relying on in his rookie and maybe even sophomore years. He was, IIRC, a highly ranked high school recruit who struggled with the length and physicality of college until he got comfortable with it. I wouldn't at all be surprised if the same thing happened in the NBA, where he initially struggles with the new length/physicality before settling in.

It wouldn't be the end of the world, since I don't think we should be relying on rookies next year anyway (at least on paper. If they prove themselves during the season, great), but something to consider. I don't think he's that traditional junior/senior that you can plug straight in.
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Re: 2022 NBA Draft Talk: Never too soon 

Post#254 » by minimus » Fri Apr 29, 2022 7:07 am

shangrila wrote:
minimus wrote:
shangrila wrote:I'd also have some caution when hoping for Moore to instantly produce. He took years to get comfortable in college and I wouldn't be surprised to see the same thing play out in the NBA.


Thank you! I don't know why, but he is my favourite prospect at SF/SG position


For the record I don't hate him, I'll state that up front, but you guys might have missed the point I made there.

Moore is a guy I'd be careful of relying on in his rookie and maybe even sophomore years. He was, IIRC, a highly ranked high school recruit who struggled with the length and physicality of college until he got comfortable with it. I wouldn't at all be surprised if the same thing happened in the NBA, where he initially struggles with the new length/physicality before settling in.

It wouldn't be the end of the world, since I don't think we should be relying on rookies next year anyway (at least on paper. If they prove themselves during the season, great), but something to consider. I don't think he's that traditional junior/senior that you can plug straight in.


Thank you for input! I had exactly this impression that he is more NBA ready, than others late FRP / early SRP picks. But I am kind of okay to draft him as development project.
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Re: 2022 NBA Draft Talk: Never too soon 

Post#255 » by minimus » Fri Apr 29, 2022 11:28 am

Speaking of NBA ready players, is Liddell one of them?

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Re: 2022 NBA Draft Talk: Never too soon 

Post#256 » by shangrila » Fri Apr 29, 2022 12:49 pm

minimus wrote:Speaking of NBA ready players, is Liddell one of them?


I'd argue he is, though I'd forget any comparisons to guys like Millsap.

He's a good defender that can move his feet and turn his hips well, on top of his near elite shotblocking IQ. Athletically he's no pogo stick and his rebounding numbers aren't amazing but I have noticed from the few games I've watched that he makes a point to box out which is a bit of a lost art in the current NBA.

Combine with his offensive skills and high IQ on that end and I'd say he's ready to contribute as a role player. 15-20mpg backup to spell Vando (or whoever) and maybe play as a smallball 5.
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Re: 2022 NBA Draft Talk: Never too soon 

Post#257 » by Klomp » Fri Apr 29, 2022 7:39 pm

shangrila wrote:
minimus wrote:Speaking of NBA ready players, is Liddell one of them?


I'd argue he is, though I'd forget any comparisons to guys like Millsap.

He's a good defender that can move his feet and turn his hips well, on top of his near elite shotblocking IQ. Athletically he's no pogo stick and his rebounding numbers aren't amazing but I have noticed from the few games I've watched that he makes a point to box out which is a bit of a lost art in the current NBA.

Combine with his offensive skills and high IQ on that end and I'd say he's ready to contribute as a role player. 15-20mpg backup to spell Vando (or whoever) and maybe play as a smallball 5.

Honestly I think a comp for him is Xavier Tillman in Memphis
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Re: 2022 NBA Draft Talk: Never too soon 

Post#258 » by wolves_89 » Fri Apr 29, 2022 7:47 pm

Klomp wrote:
shangrila wrote:
minimus wrote:Speaking of NBA ready players, is Liddell one of them?


I'd argue he is, though I'd forget any comparisons to guys like Millsap.

He's a good defender that can move his feet and turn his hips well, on top of his near elite shotblocking IQ. Athletically he's no pogo stick and his rebounding numbers aren't amazing but I have noticed from the few games I've watched that he makes a point to box out which is a bit of a lost art in the current NBA.

Combine with his offensive skills and high IQ on that end and I'd say he's ready to contribute as a role player. 15-20mpg backup to spell Vando (or whoever) and maybe play as a smallball 5.

Honestly I think a comp for him is Xavier Tillman in Memphis


I'd say Liddell is a rich man's Tillman (he's more athletic and can shoot a bit). The reason why I think he could end up in Minnesota is that he fills a hole on the roster. Currently, the Wolves don't have a forward who is 240+ lbs and can fit into the defensive scheme (unless they bring back Knight and actually are willing to play him). The other thing that might be a selling point for LIddell is that he will be an older rookie and much closer to being able to contribute than a 19 year old.
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Re: 2022 NBA Draft Talk: Never too soon 

Post#259 » by life_saver » Sun May 1, 2022 1:26 pm

Question for draft experts...is there any realistic chance of a PG prospect (someone who isn't a complete non-shooter) falling to Wolves at #19?
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Re: 2022 NBA Draft Talk: Never too soon 

Post#260 » by Mamba4Goat » Mon May 2, 2022 2:27 am

life_saver wrote:Question for draft experts...is there any realistic chance of a PG prospect (someone who isn't a complete non-shooter) falling to Wolves at #19?

Jaden Hardy had his struggles but he should pan out as a shooter. He’s got a 50/50 chance at being at 19.

Kennedy Chandler (38% from 3) should be around still at 19 too.
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