2021-22 RealGM All-Season Awards - Discussion Thread

[Texas Chuck]

I don't have a formula, but I value the PS highly. Trae's PS was really bad.

This is always a struggle for me. If a player has a great RS, that's hard to ignore. Especially if other contenders didn't play in the playoffs at all. How much should I "penalize" a player who performs poorly? It's easy for me to add value for great playoff play, but I always struggle with what to do with a player who played great over the regular season, but then had a bad series. Take Dirk's MVP season in 2007. He then has a well-documented bad series against the Warriors, but when you go a bit more granular, its really just 2 awful games, and he was solid to good in the other 4 games. Would I in 2007 say Dirk can't be POY or OPOY over 2 games after what he did in the other 85 or so?

I'm not saying its wrong to hold this against Trae. Or those games against Dirk. 2 terrible games cost a 67 win team a series, and possibly a shot at a championship. The timing of those performances couldn't have been worse.

So I guess for me its defining what POY/OPOY mean to me. Is is about the best player or best offensive player? Or is it about the best performance with playoffs weighted heavily because of how much more they mean?

I think, and maybe this is a horrific inconsistency on my part, but I think for POY, I would place a lot of weight on that, but for the lessor awards, probably allow the RS to tell me what kind of player they were. And its always interesting for me to see how others attempt to deal with the issue.

[eminence]

For the RS, Trae Young is second in O-LEBRON, second in offensive RAPTOR, and fourth in Offensive BPM, which is difficult to ignore. The fact that he was throttled so badly in the Miami series is also difficult to ignore. I might sneak him in if OPOY were a five-player ballot, since it's a three-player ballot, I don't see him making the cut.

Jokic is the clear leader. I don't know of an offensive metric out there that doesn't have him first. Giannis, Embiid, Curry, and Doncic are the others in the running, with Doncic trailing due to his slow start to the season. I initially thought Booker would be in there, but he's 13th in both O-LEBRON and offensive RAPTOR, and it's hard for me to make a case for him just because he was the best offensive player on the best RS team.

I don't have a formula, but I value the PS highly. Trae's PS was really bad.

Tbf O-LEBRON is the only stat there that’s worth, RAPTOR I’ve heard is absolute garbage lol

as far as i understand is not LEBRON the improved RAPTOR?

Not exactly an improved version as they're from different sources, both are xRAPM variants, but I do prefer LEBRON for accuracy.

[jalengreen]

For the RS, Trae Young is second in O-LEBRON, second in offensive RAPTOR, and fourth in Offensive BPM, which is difficult to ignore. The fact that he was throttled so badly in the Miami series is also difficult to ignore. I might sneak him in if OPOY were a five-player ballot, since it's a three-player ballot, I don't see him making the cut.

Jokic is the clear leader. I don't know of an offensive metric out there that doesn't have him first. Giannis, Embiid, Curry, and Doncic are the others in the running, with Doncic trailing due to his slow start to the season. I initially thought Booker would be in there, but he's 13th in both O-LEBRON and offensive RAPTOR, and it's hard for me to make a case for him just because he was the best offensive player on the best RS team.

I don't have a formula, but I value the PS highly. Trae's PS was really bad.

Tbf O-LEBRON is the only stat there that’s worth, RAPTOR I’ve heard is absolute garbage lol

LEBRON is the metric I prefer based on what I know about it. I'm not as familiar with RAPTOR, but in this case, RAPTOR had the same rankings as LEBRON in the instances I cited (Trae, Jokic, Booker), so based on that, I can't point to LEBRON and say it's great but RAPTOR sucks.

BPM is a crude tool. It doesn't count for much, but I at least look at it. It's more credible on the offensive side than defensive, that's for sure.

ESPN's RPM has basically fallen off their site, which I find curious. Are they still paying Englemann for it? It's not on the NBA Stats drop-down menu, but you can get to it by using the URL http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm. They don't have any transparency about the formula, and it has so many outliers that Englemann fans try to wave away but are like blinking red lights to me. I don't use it except to periodically check it out and see if the outliers are still there.

i believe they have changed the formula and it is now completely useless. IIRC englemann said he's no longer affiliated?

EPM is generally considered the best one overall from what i've heard.

https://dunksandthrees.com/epm

and fwiw trae's 2nd in O-EPM

[Doctor MJ]

How much was Trae harmed by this series on your all season ballot

My immediate thought is that it's going to cause him to fall off my OPOY ballot - though he'll certainly be someone I'll be considering when all is said and done and maybe it won't seem so bad somehow.

When a guy who had great individual and team offensive numbers in the playoffs is able to still point to one of those things in the playoffs, I can often keep the weight on what I saw in the regular season...but when a player seem absolutely shut down in the playoffs and his team does to, typically it's a given that there are at least 3 guys in the league who leave me feeling like they had a more impressive offensive year.

[Doctor MJ]

I don't have a formula, but I value the PS highly. Trae's PS was really bad.

This is always a struggle for me. If a player has a great RS, that's hard to ignore. Especially if other contenders didn't play in the playoffs at all. How much should I "penalize" a player who performs poorly? It's easy for me to add value for great playoff play, but I always struggle with what to do with a player who played great over the regular season, but then had a bad series. Take Dirk's MVP season in 2007. He then has a well-documented bad series against the Warriors, but when you go a bit more granular, its really just 2 awful games, and he was solid to good in the other 4 games. Would I in 2007 say Dirk can't be POY or OPOY over 2 games after what he did in the other 85 or so?

I'm not saying its wrong to hold this against Trae. Or those games against Dirk. 2 terrible games cost a 67 win team a series, and possibly a shot at a championship. The timing of those performances couldn't have been worse.

So I guess for me its defining what POY/OPOY mean to me. Is is about the best player or best offensive player? Or is it about the best performance with playoffs weighted heavily because of how much more they mean?

I think, and maybe this is a horrific inconsistency on my part, but I think for POY, I would place a lot of weight on that, but for the lessor awards, probably allow the RS to tell me what kind of player they were. And its always interesting for me to see how others attempt to deal with the issue.

It's just plain tough no doubt about it, and yeah, I like to see others approaches to this.

Fundamentally, we have this issue where the place that the basketball world has decided counts the most - and where the players try the hardest - is both a) inherently small in sample size and b) structurally different from the part with the big sample size.

In the end for me, if a guy struggles in the playoffs in a context that doesn't feel fluky and also doesn't feel similar to the regular season, it's very hard for me to ignore.

This is an area where I appreciate ElGee's tendency to focus on multi-year runs rather than single seasons. I think that if you're focused on goodness in the abstract, this is the way to go...but the reality is that seasons are the elements of achievement/legacy for basketball players and so if you have a legendary playoff run, for example, it's hard for me to not weigh that heavily even you never do it again.

[Outside]

Tbf O-LEBRON is the only stat there that’s worth, RAPTOR I’ve heard is absolute garbage lol

LEBRON is the metric I prefer based on what I know about it. I'm not as familiar with RAPTOR, but in this case, RAPTOR had the same rankings as LEBRON in the instances I cited (Trae, Jokic, Booker), so based on that, I can't point to LEBRON and say it's great but RAPTOR sucks.

BPM is a crude tool. It doesn't count for much, but I at least look at it. It's more credible on the offensive side than defensive, that's for sure.

ESPN's RPM has basically fallen off their site, which I find curious. Are they still paying Englemann for it? It's not on the NBA Stats drop-down menu, but you can get to it by using the URL http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm. They don't have any transparency about the formula, and it has so many outliers that Englemann fans try to wave away but are like blinking red lights to me. I don't use it except to periodically check it out and see if the outliers are still there.

i believe they have changed the formula and it is now completely useless. IIRC englemann said he's no longer affiliated?

EPM is generally considered the best one overall from what i've heard.

https://dunksandthrees.com/epm

and fwiw trae's 2nd in O-EPM

Yeah, I should've mentioned and quoted EPM also, but I'm not as high on it as LEBRON because it has odd outliers like the ESPN RPM. I'd have to look at their methodology, but for example, they have Kyrie eighth in offense and seventh overall even though he played only 29 games. I don't see obvious stuff like that with LEBRON (Kyrie is 19th in O-LEBRON and 109th in LEBRON wins added), though LEBRON has a few rankings that seem odd at first glance.

I'm certainly not as well-versed in advanced metrics as many people here, but based on my meager knowledge, LEBRON is my favorite overall metric, at least in the free category. Maybe there is better stuff out there that you have to pay for.

[jalengreen]

LEBRON is the metric I prefer based on what I know about it. I'm not as familiar with RAPTOR, but in this case, RAPTOR had the same rankings as LEBRON in the instances I cited (Trae, Jokic, Booker), so based on that, I can't point to LEBRON and say it's great but RAPTOR sucks.

BPM is a crude tool. It doesn't count for much, but I at least look at it. It's more credible on the offensive side than defensive, that's for sure.

ESPN's RPM has basically fallen off their site, which I find curious. Are they still paying Englemann for it? It's not on the NBA Stats drop-down menu, but you can get to it by using the URL http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm. They don't have any transparency about the formula, and it has so many outliers that Englemann fans try to wave away but are like blinking red lights to me. I don't use it except to periodically check it out and see if the outliers are still there.

i believe they have changed the formula and it is now completely useless. IIRC englemann said he's no longer affiliated?

EPM is generally considered the best one overall from what i've heard.

https://dunksandthrees.com/epm

and fwiw trae's 2nd in O-EPM

Yeah, I should've mentioned and quoted EPM also, but I'm not as high on it as LEBRON because it has odd outliers like the ESPN RPM. I'd have to look at their methodology, but for example, they have Kyrie eighth in offense and seventh overall even though he played only 29 games. I don't see obvious stuff like that with LEBRON (Kyrie is 19th in O-LEBRON and 109th in LEBRON wins added), though LEBRON has a few rankings that seem odd at first glance.

I'm certainly not as well-versed in advanced metrics as many people here, but based on my meager knowledge, LEBRON is my favorite overall metric, at least in the free category. Maybe there is better stuff out there that you have to pay for.

well tbf it's a rate stat. naturally kyrie isn't as high up based on wins added

[Outside]

i believe they have changed the formula and it is now completely useless. IIRC englemann said he's no longer affiliated?

EPM is generally considered the best one overall from what i've heard.

https://dunksandthrees.com/epm

and fwiw trae's 2nd in O-EPM

Yeah, I should've mentioned and quoted EPM also, but I'm not as high on it as LEBRON because it has odd outliers like the ESPN RPM. I'd have to look at their methodology, but for example, they have Kyrie eighth in offense and seventh overall even though he played only 29 games. I don't see obvious stuff like that with LEBRON (Kyrie is 19th in O-LEBRON and 109th in LEBRON wins added), though LEBRON has a few rankings that seem odd at first glance.

I'm certainly not as well-versed in advanced metrics as many people here, but based on my meager knowledge, LEBRON is my favorite overall metric, at least in the free category. Maybe there is better stuff out there that you have to pay for.

well tbf it's a rate stat. naturally kyrie isn't as high up based on wins added

Which is fair when it comes to assessing performance over the entire season, don't you think?

[jalengreen]

Yeah, I should've mentioned and quoted EPM also, but I'm not as high on it as LEBRON because it has odd outliers like the ESPN RPM. I'd have to look at their methodology, but for example, they have Kyrie eighth in offense and seventh overall even though he played only 29 games. I don't see obvious stuff like that with LEBRON (Kyrie is 19th in O-LEBRON and 109th in LEBRON wins added), though LEBRON has a few rankings that seem odd at first glance.

I'm certainly not as well-versed in advanced metrics as many people here, but based on my meager knowledge, LEBRON is my favorite overall metric, at least in the free category. Maybe there is better stuff out there that you have to pay for.

well tbf it's a rate stat. naturally kyrie isn't as high up based on wins added

Which is fair when it comes to assessing performance over the entire season, don't you think?

yeah but i don't see how it's an EPM issue

[MyUniBroDavis]

For the RS, Trae Young is second in O-LEBRON, second in offensive RAPTOR, and fourth in Offensive BPM, which is difficult to ignore. The fact that he was throttled so badly in the Miami series is also difficult to ignore. I might sneak him in if OPOY were a five-player ballot, since it's a three-player ballot, I don't see him making the cut.

Jokic is the clear leader. I don't know of an offensive metric out there that doesn't have him first. Giannis, Embiid, Curry, and Doncic are the others in the running, with Doncic trailing due to his slow start to the season. I initially thought Booker would be in there, but he's 13th in both O-LEBRON and offensive RAPTOR, and it's hard for me to make a case for him just because he was the best offensive player on the best RS team.

I don't have a formula, but I value the PS highly. Trae's PS was really bad.

Tbf O-LEBRON is the only stat there that’s worth, RAPTOR I’ve heard is absolute garbage lol

as far as i understand is not LEBRON the improved RAPTOR?

Nah lol raptor is by 538 I think and LEBRON is by cranjis

As far as I know for all in one metrics DPM/EPM/Lebron all perform the best in predictive tests, Raptor is pretty bad worse than espn rpm

Read on Twitter

?s=20

There are caveats here though

The gap between them is basically the same

[eminence]

2 more down. After a promising start to the season the Bulls get hurt by injuries and DeMar can't rise above his playoff struggles this time, Bucks still looking to repeat. No award contenders for Chicago that I can think of.

GS still looking to bring back the glory days, I'd say Steph a slim shot at POY still, and a strong shot at a spot on the ballot. Dray hunting for another DPOY title.

Jokic the first contender for the POY title to be eliminated from the playoffs. Played well in the playoffs, though I think questions about his defense in certain matchups remain unanswered due to extreme burden. His best chance to win POY is probably either the Suns or the Warriors going on to win it all. If Giannis/Tatum/Embiid could lead their teams to the promised land they'd likely have decent cases over him. Certain to make the ballot and a hell of a season.

[LukaTheGOAT]

Tbf O-LEBRON is the only stat there that’s worth, RAPTOR I’ve heard is absolute garbage lol

LEBRON is the metric I prefer based on what I know about it. I'm not as familiar with RAPTOR, but in this case, RAPTOR had the same rankings as LEBRON in the instances I cited (Trae, Jokic, Booker), so based on that, I can't point to LEBRON and say it's great but RAPTOR sucks.

BPM is a crude tool. It doesn't count for much, but I at least look at it. It's more credible on the offensive side than defensive, that's for sure.

ESPN's RPM has basically fallen off their site, which I find curious. Are they still paying Englemann for it? It's not on the NBA Stats drop-down menu, but you can get to it by using the URL http://www.espn.com/nba/statistics/rpm. They don't have any transparency about the formula, and it has so many outliers that Englemann fans try to wave away but are like blinking red lights to me. I don't use it except to periodically check it out and see if the outliers are still there.

i believe they have changed the formula and it is now completely useless. IIRC englemann said he's no longer affiliated?

EPM is generally considered the best one overall from what i've heard.

https://dunksandthrees.com/epm

and fwiw trae's 2nd in O-EPM

Trae Young was 2nd in Backpicks OBPM too if that means anything.

[The-Power]

His best chance to win POY is probably either the Suns or the Warriors going on to win it all. If Giannis/Tatum/Embiid could lead their teams to the promised land they'd likely have decent cases over him.

Do you have Tatum clearly ahead of Curry, or do you believe it's easier for the Warriors to win without an elite run from Curry than it is for the Celtics without an elite run from Tatum?

[eminence]

His best chance to win POY is probably either the Suns or the Warriors going on to win it all. If Giannis/Tatum/Embiid could lead their teams to the promised land they'd likely have decent cases over him.

Do you have Tatum clearly ahead of Curry, or do you believe it's easier for the Warriors to win without an elite run from Curry than it is for the Celtics without an elite run from Tatum?

I'd say I have Tatum slightly ahead as of now, largely due to minutes played, level of play quite similar, likely leaning Curry. Just easier for Jokic to stay ahead of Curry by outplaying him head to head.

[Doctor MJ]

So, Round 1 in the books, some thoughts first on the actual playoff teams -

I thought Golden State and Boston looked the most impressive in round one, and I'd love to see that matchup in the finals.

With Golden State, I'm not so much disappointed that the Denver series became more contested with time so much as I think it speaks to Jokic figuring things out over the course of the series. With that said, I do wonder about the Warriors being able to really do their defense when they have all 3 rovers out there, and hence this "death lineup" ain't like the old ones. Wondering if we're going to see Poole play less and - say- GPII play more in the Memphis series where they'll have to deal with Ja.

With Boston, to me they looked just incredible in the first series...but I also think it's possible that Brooklyn was the perfect "tough team" for them to play. It's funny, because KD & Kyrie think they are both geniuses compared to everyone else, but both of those guys are so predictable in what they want to do that it really is clear how you should try to defend them, and if you're good enough at responding to their individual-oriented attack, you'll stop them. Other teams are going to play more team ball, and while I think the Celtics will be a great defense in general, other offenses will at least offer different types of challenges to them.

Meanwhile on the other end, the reality is that we won't know how strong the Celtic offense is in the playoffs until they play a real defense. Cue the Bucks.

Incidentally, if the Bucks had a healthy Middleton, I'd probably pick them against the Celtics, but as is, I have to go with the Celtics there, and as favorites against the winner of the Heat-76ers series, and I may well have the Celtics as the favorites in the finals, though that's a ways a way.

I was disappointed by Memphis in the 1st round. I mean, great that they rallied to win those games, but I really feel like that says a lot about the Timberwolves. GS will be a big test. Right now, the Grizz feel like they are still getting their playoff sea legs and a ripe to get "upset" by a veteran playoff powerhouse. Feels a bit like the '08 NO-SA series. But, maybe they'll seem grow'd up as they go into the next round, and this is a team that has shown to match up better than most against the Warriors.

The other West matchup between Phoenix & Dallas is going to be very, very interesting. Chuck has laid out reasons why we shouldn't get to high on his Mavs, and the Suns are no joke, but this Mavs team seems like it's fitting together into depth very nicely and then there's Luka.

I'm probably pretty annoying with my criticisms of Doncic, and I stand by all of them, but I'm sincere when I say that I could see Doncic just proving to be the best player in every series he plays. When everything is on the line, we still haven't seen an opponent figure out how to effectively put any kind of clamp on him.

This to say that while I'll probably pick against Dallas in every series they play from this point forward this post-season, I'm going to see them as a scary opponent that feels like it shouldn't be a surprise if they end up on top when all is said and done.

The last 2nd round series is Miami-Philly which just had the air let out of the balloon with Embiid's orbital injury. Poor guy.
Feels like a walkover for me if Embiid's not out there.

In terms of teams eliminated for whom thoughts pop to mind:

- Time to make a change in Utah. I think they really could have won a title at their apex last year, but the milk is souring. I'm not entirely sure what I'd do. Part of me feels like Mitchell doesn't deserve to be the guy the Jazz make their one, true franchise player, but even if Mitchell ends up just telling the Jazz he's leaving, I'm not sure it makes sense to role it back with Gobert. This despite the fact that I really feel like there's a way to build a defense around Gobert that is great in the playoffs.

- I think Denver can leave the playoffs with their head held high. I'm glad it seems like Jokic isn't the type to dream of banana boats. I don't know if a fully healthy Nuggets team should be expected to get through 4 playoff matchups on the way to the title, but they should be taken very seriously by opponents. Also, while I want everyone to heal from their injuries, I really hope we get to see something like Bubble Murray again. The longer we have to wait, and the more we feel like the Bubble contributed to stuff like this, the more it makes sense to doubt...but he was so, so fun to watch!

- I think Minny & NO both need to be cautious going forward. Both could draw conclusions that they have officially broken through and are going to just keep on getting better in the years to come, and I'm not so sure about that.

- Toronto on the other hand is a team that I think should feel quite encouraged with the year and they should just keep letting Masai make decisions. I was a skeptic on the dude, but he just keeps making good calls.

- Chicago, sigh. I mean, if you just wanted some years where you were a playoff team, they made good moves. But I don't think they have a contender on their hands, and they seem likely to be committing to a duo of volume scorers who are going to age out. They aren't in the worst place, but given the level of hype they got to start the year, no, they are roughly what we expected them to be. DeRozan looked better than ever, but still, 1st Round fodder.

- Brooklyn, wow. Just, wow. One thing to deal with Kyrie saying he didn't think they needed a coach when everything is shiny and new, another when he talks about managing the franchise after he was the one who clearly needed to be managed and the team exited the stage without a single playoff win. I'm not sure what comes next, but I will say that I think it most likely that KD does not win a title in Brooklyn at this point, which is not something I'd have said after they got Harden.

- Atlanta, eek. We shouldn't forget how good Trae Young looked against his first 5 playoff opponents...but Miami owned him. If playoff opponents can own him...do you really want him - an his achilles heel defense - as your franchise player? They're already committed, but the ceiling seems lower than it did a year ago. I will say - Hunter really looked like he was back toward the end, and that's no small thing.

While I'm at it, the teams who lost in the play-in:

- Los Angeles. While it was disappointing that they lost to Minny with George, the fact remains that if Kawhi & George are healthy, the Clips will be a serious threat next year. So concerns, but actually anything big and new.

- San Antonio. I have to admit I haven't paid that much attention to them, and I'll feel silly if next year they break through and remind me of good ol' can't-keep-em-down Spurs culture, but it's another year of them being basically irrelevant in the post-Kawhi era. I'll also say, I worry a bit when I see teams go heliocentric around guys that aren't either superstars or young superstar prospects.

- Cleveland. Bummer how the season blew up with injuries, but still, this is a franchise I was so unhopeful for last year, and wow, now I am hopeful. I don't know about the Mobley-Allen fit in the long term, but something that's clear is that they have a talented young core to focus their optimization around.

- Charlotte. It really bothered me to see them lose another play-in game in a blow out at the time, and seeing what Miami then did to Atlanta really hammers in how far away the Hornets are right now. I think you keep building around Ball & Bridges as your foundation, but clearly not a situation where you can expect to role things back and just keep climbing to contender status. Not really sure if firing the coach is something that should be expected to help anything, but obviously defense is a huge problem.

[tsherkin]

So, Round 1 in the books, some thoughts first on the actual playoff teams -

I thought Golden State and Boston looked the most impressive in round one, and I'd love to see that matchup in the finals.

With Golden State, I'm not so much disappointed that the Denver series became more contested with time so much as I think it speaks to Jokic figuring things out over the course of the series. With that said, I do wonder about the Warriors being able to really do their defense when they have all 3 rovers out there, and hence this "death lineup" ain't like the old ones. Wondering if we're going to see Poole play less and - say- GPII play more in the Memphis series where they'll have to deal with Ja.

Very much curious to see what Poole looks like in the second round, because as his impossible-to-sustain 3pt shooting faded, he looked far less impressive. Quick as hell and able to get basically wherever he wants on the court. Think he might have to slow down a bit, and that he probably looks a lot better coming off the bench in a classic, Jamal Crawford-type role rather than as a starter (with Curry back, of course). I don't think his best place is alongside Klay and Steph.

With Boston, to me they looked just incredible in the first series...but I also think it's possible that Brooklyn was the perfect "tough team" for them to play. It's funny, because KD & Kyrie think they are both geniuses compared to everyone else, but both of those guys are so predictable in what they want to do that it really is clear how you should try to defend them, and if you're good enough at responding to their individual-oriented attack, you'll stop them. Other teams are going to play more team ball, and while I think the Celtics will be a great defense in general, other offenses will at least offer different types of challenges to them.

Meanwhile on the other end, the reality is that we won't know how strong the Celtic offense is in the playoffs until they play a real defense. Cue the Bucks.

They sold out HARD to stop Durant, and it worked. Irving isn't really a stunner and the rest of the team couldn't put up enough points to do much about it, even though they did it effectively. They were nearly a 58% eFG team on 117 ORTG in that series, so Brooklyn's offense was cooking, but Durant wasn't able to get it done and Boston's offense, much less-discussed, was nasty. They beat Brooklyn up hard on the offensive glass (30.1% ORB), won the turnover game, and basically just scored at will on the Nets. So even if their defensive efficacy wanes against the Bucks, if anything like that offensive efficacy makes it into the second round, they'll be very, very competitive. But as you say, the Bucks are a real defense, so we will see what we see.

This to say that while I'll probably pick against Dallas in every series they play from this point forward this post-season, I'm going to see them as a scary opponent that feels like it shouldn't be a surprise if they end up on top when all is said and done.

On the plus side, we are going to see a masterclass in pick and roll basketball from both teams in that series, and that should be a lot of fun!

- Toronto on the other hand is a team that I think should feel quite encouraged with the year and they should just keep letting Masai make decisions. I was a skeptic on the dude, but he just keeps making good calls.

Yeah, he keeps looking good over time. Toronto doesn't have anyone who screams "superstar in the making," but there are a lot of really interesting young pieces on the roster, several of whom are already showing through rather nicely. Seeing Siakam's development has been nice and just having the ability to discuss potential and future whilst still having a playoff team that's fun to watch is a real treat after the Raptors basically blew chunks for most of the first basically twenty years of their existence, give or take a season or two.

DeRozan looked better than ever, but still, 1st Round fodder.

DDR is the ultimate RS player. He's a slow learner but a hard worker. Not an intuitive player, but a guy who creeps forward. He has bad postseason habits and can be solved defensively in the playoffs with a fair amount of ease, though, which puts a ceiling on what he can accomplish. And then of course Lavine was gone and they had no chance once that happened. They need more offensive structure and ball movement, and fewer isos.

- Brooklyn, wow. Just, wow. One thing to deal with Kyrie saying he didn't think they needed a coach when everything is shiny and new, another when he talks about managing the franchise after he was the one who clearly needed to be managed and the team exited the stage without a single playoff win. I'm not sure what comes next, but I will say that I think it most likely that KD does not win a title in Brooklyn at this point, which is not something I'd have said after they got Harden.

I'd say that Kyrie is a muppet, but Jim Henson would rise from his grave to slap me right in the face. Kyrie just does not make good decisions when he opens his mouth.

- San Antonio. I have to admit I haven't paid that much attention to them, and I'll feel silly if next year they break through and remind me of good ol' can't-keep-em-down Spurs culture, but it's another year of them being basically irrelevant in the post-Kawhi era. I'll also say, I worry a bit when I see teams go heliocentric around guys that aren't either superstars or young superstar prospects.

These past four seasons have been the only seasons since 96-97 that they have been worse than +0 in relative DRTG. The worse defensive seasons since that year. You'd have to go back to 89 for the next one, Larry Brown's first year. Under Pops, these have been the worst defenses in his coaching career, 97 aside. Team offense is okay, but they can't defend a lick, so they're going no where. Did a little crunching earlier. I looked at title winner (and I will eventually expand to conference finalists), and found that their averages ranks are:

Defensive rank: 5.5
Offensive rank: 5.3
Relative DRTG: -3.44
Relative ORTG: +3.89
Average SRS: 6.77
Average SRS Rank: 2.83

No big surprises there, right? Leaning one way or the other, you average out to about top 5 on offense and defense, typically a top 3 SRS in the league. And San Antonio just doesn't have the defense for it. In the last 43 seasons, only one team has one a title with a positive relative DRTG, the 2001 Lakers at +1.8, and theirs is a narrative of turning it right back around in the postseason and defending quite well (as they did in their adjacent title seasons). We can pretty much throw these Spurs right out the window until they start defending again.

[Doctor MJ]

Thoughts on our awards right now:

POY

My 5 after the RS was Jokic / Tatum / Curry / Giannis / Embiid. Think it would still be this 5 now.

I don't think Jokic explicitly hurt his case in the GS series - I think the way he improved as the series progress says quite good things - but obviously others still have time to shine where he doesn't.

I'm trying not to get too high on Tatum, but dayum, what a series against the Nets. He's got a serious chance to be my POY even I'm still reluctant to rate him too high as a #1 player for your offense - best guy on the Celtics, but how well will that translate against great playoff defense?

I think Curry is a very serious POY candidate at this point, but it's definitely dependent on me seeing similar success considerably deeper into this post-season.

If Giannis ends up running the table and getting another chip, he'll be a very, very, strong candidate. It'll be trickier if the Bucks lose early. Bucks could end up losing to the Celtics while Giannis looks like by far the best player on the court, what kind of a POY showing will he deserve for that considering that I do feel like he and his team left something on the table in the RS? We'll see.

Poor Embiid. Not one, but two injuries in the 1st Round that seem like they should end his season. I'm not going to drop him below other guys lightly, but I'm kind of expecting to be tempted.

Other players on my mind at the moment:

Chris Paul - Mikal Bridges - Devin Booker. Entirely possible that the Suns run the table and none of these guys get into my Top 5, but all deserve a lot of respect and Paul did just literally pitch a perfect game.

Luka Doncic - Has no argument for a Top 5 spot yet...and yet could absolutely end up at #1. As I've said, if he just ends up the best player in every series while leading his teams to win every time, he's going to have a strong case.

Jimmy Butler - Bam Adebayo. Similar to the Suns. If the Heat make a deep run, we're going to be talking about these guys a lot and they certainly do deserve praise, just a question if it's Top 5 praise.

OPOY

Nikola Jokic & Steph Curry are the two leaders for me right now.

Jokic has effectively clinched a stronger OPOY candidacy than last year, when he won my OPOY, so it's just a question if someone passes him up.

Curry had the lead to start the year, and he can get it back if he and the Warriors do enough in the playoffs. Even if they don't achieve that, he's got a strong case to make my ballot.

The 3rd guy on my RS OPOY ballot was Trae Young, so, that means probably at least one of my OPOY ballot guys will climb in through their playoff run, and that I think points to the guys I mentioned on the POY list above - though I'm curious if others are on people's minds.

DPOY

Remains an award I'm going to try not to get too trapped in any particular thinking prematurely. Very much in flux.

I said at the end of the RS that I basically have no problem with Marcus Smart winning the DPOY even as I acknowledge that his individual impact isn't god-like force of defensive anchors in the past.

One of the funny things though is that I said that even as it wasn't exactly crystal clear to me that he was the most valuable defensive player on the Celtics - either at peak or over the entirety of the season. Timelord is the main guy brought - and brought up from a peak perspective - and that made sense, but I did feel with his missed time, there wasn't much of a debate between him and Smart.

The guy though that I always felt reluctant to bring up, but who wasn't easy for me to dismiss was Tatum, so I'm bringing him up now and hope to hear thoughts from others. During the RS Tatum was the big minutes guys for the team - something I don't dismiss lightly - and a clearly solid defender who analytically didn't look clearly behind Smart or really any other Celtic.

And then against the Nets, to me, he was the guy I couldn't stop marveling about. He didn't do what was done to KD on his own, but he was just plain outstanding - smart, playing within the team scheme, and I'm still thinking about those blocks on KD. Not a guy to be dismissed lightly.

Bucks looked incredible and that makes me think a lot about Giannis and Jrue again. Last year I ended up with Giannis as my DPOY and while Jrue just missed out on my ballot, I was looking back recently and kinda feel like he shoulda been on there.

Heat were great so we'll keep thinking about them. Bam's the obvious candidate, Butler & Lowry are great if they play enough - Oladipo might well be but we know he didn't play enough - and let me just say: I'm starting to feel like I need to consider PJ Tucker given that he just seems to always scale remarkably well come playoff time.

I still respect Draymond Green more than any other defender, and if he ends up looking like the best defender in these playoffs with a deep Golden State run, he'll be a serious candidate.

Mikal Bridges has not just a place in the discussion but an avenue. Imagine if he ends up looking remarkably effective against both Luka & Steph.

Jaren Jackson Jr. right now seems unlikely to be on my ballot, but if he can turn a corner in subsequent playoff series that could change. At times JJJ looks like the DPOY, at times he seems like a guy you just can't rely on.

Also, I really don't think Gobert is going to be on my ballot even though I really think you can build a strong playoff defense around him. He gets too much criticism for the issues the Jazz have, but at the same time, when naming my top achieving player for the year, it's hard to make that list without a strong team playoff D.

ROY

So, I'm really looking forward to people's arguments here, but I think all the major players are done now so we should be able to have that final discussion. I've got 4 guys on my mind: Even Mobley, Scottie Barnes, Cade Cunningham & Herb Jones. In reverse order:

I think Herb - love calling him Herb btw - has an argument for Most Valuable Rookie. With his defense, he was ready to make an impact from the jump. A great steal as a 2nd Round pick, and one more thing blooming this season that seems like it's going to save GM Griffin's job.

But when I evaluate ROY, I do think about future relevance. Not saying anyone else has to - and would admire someone putting Herb as their #1 pick - but I don't expect him to have the career going forward as the other 3. To be clear: I'm not saying that I ignore actual rookie performance when looking at ROY, but I do look at the "role they are auditioning for" and how much promise they demonstrated this year.

Had Cunningham played the whole year like he started, Herb would be on my ballot over Cade...but I think Cade showed enough that he feels like a future all-star and a reasonable proto-franchise player. Not because he was the #1 pick, but the stuff that made him the #1 pick, yeah, pretty legit.

That of course may make you think: So, if he's a legit #1, why isn't he your #1?

Because I think Barnes & Mobley are future all-stars too, and in addition to them being more valuable than Cunningham this year, I actually think they are more likely to play a core role on a contender than he is, and I'm not sure their ceiling is any lower than his given their 2-way impact.

Barnes & Mobley is the place where I've really gone back & forth on. I was surprised and happy that Barnes beat out Mobley for the ROY...but at the moment I'm still leaning Mobley. If one of these guys ends up being an MVP-level player, I'd say Mobley is most likely to be that guy.

Now, were my ballot a Most Valuable Rookie ballot, I think I would have Barnes ahead of Mobley if only because of Mobley's missed time, but I'd say Mobley's made the more eye-opening impression to me.

One thing though: This is me perhaps being behind-the-times. The fact that Mobley is a true defensive big is helping him over Barnes here, and I think you could argue it shouldn't. It's possible that Barnes will prove to be the less exploitable defender against all playoff matchups going forward, and possibly if folks could convince me of this, I'll end up siding with Scottie - love calling him Scottie btw.

MIP

Definitely wanting to keep an open mind on MIP & 6MOY as I pay less attention to these guys typically in the RS, but thoughts:

Darius Garland has been the guy on my mind for most of the season and he's still at the top of my list right now. His season is over and that leaves others the chance to make a massive playoff impression, but he's a very worthy candidate in my mind.

I didn't love the Ja Morant bandwagon on this even before the playoffs and I really don't now. This was a guy who seemed like was going to be an all-star the way he started the year last year before injuries took hold, and while he clearly improved this year, it wasn't the kind of stark difference I like to see from my MIPs - and like I saw from Garland.

Meanwhile, I think Grizz teammates Desmond Bane & JJJ might have stronger arguments than Ja.

I'm skeptical on Dejounte Murray. Putting up big helio numbers on a mediocre team leaves me skeptical.

Jordan Poole will have a serious argument for me if he ends up continuing to look like a Splash Cousin through a deep playoff run.

Tyrese Maxey has an opening definitely. If we imagine a series where Maxey leads the 76ers to victory over Miami without Embiid, that would make him a HUGE MIP candidate.

Jalen Brunson I see got some MIP love and truly, his performance in the playoffs has been spectacular. If the Mavs end up beating the Suns on the back of a 2-headed monster in LukaJalen, he'll be a strong candidate for me.

I'll mention Mikal Bridges again here. He's a tricky MIP candidate in that it's unclear how much we're talking about literal improvement and how much we're talking about opportunity. Nevertheless, I thought he should have been an all-star this year, and I certainly didn't argue that a year ago.

Timelord seems like he should be an option as well if he comes back dominant and plays a major role on a deep Celtic run.

I do have Gary Payton II on my mind, though I typically want my MIP to be a starter-level guy.

6MOY

I thought the regular season faves - Tyler Herro, Kevin Love & Cam Johnson - deserve praise.

I'll start with Love with the caveat that I doubt he makes my final ballot - I tend to want my 6MOYs to be on elite teams, else there's the question of why you're not a starter - as a UCLA guy, I'm emotionally bound to these Bruin alums. People unfortunately see it most frequently nowadays with my tsk-tsking of Russell Westbrook - the emotional bond isn't just a positive thing, it's like I'm the curmudgeonly uncle at the picnic.

I loved Love at UCLA and while I didn't have the courage to say he'd be great in the pros - all the worries about his lack of explosion made sense to me - I was cheering for him, and when he got to Minny, I was championing him as a guy who was way more impressive than people realized. I lived through the Kahn years where Love's GM made it a point to sign guys to put Love on the bench, publicly bashed Love relative to Ricky Rubio before Rubio had agreed to even play a game for the T-Wolves, and then bizarrely refused to give Love as long of a contract as he could in the name of him "not being our franchise player".

But after all that, while I think some are overly critical of Love in Cleveland, I was disappointed too. I do think the reality is that the Cavs never had any intention of "letting Love be Love", and that that actually made a lot of sense. I think given this, it made sense for Love to be a mere role player for them. None of that changes the fact though that he was erratic for the Cavs in the LeBron years, and petulant in the post-LeBron years - the team probably would have been better served to hand the offense to Love rather than Sexton, but dude, you took their money when you knew they were going to have struggles ahead of them, but the adult in the room ffs!

So then, it's been really a joy for me to see Love embrace a bench role with the Cavs right now. I always want to believe that when a player complains about things it's not just about his own ego, and I think Love seemed to show that this year. Love seemed to not actually mind being behind guys who weren't necessarily better than him on the depth chart so long as he believed in those guys. Here's hoping this continues in the years to come.

Okay so, I think Tyler Herro and Cam Johnson are the obvious 6MOY candidates I'm considering right now and I basically don't disagree with the consensus on them. How they end up will depend on playoff performance. Who else could end up being a candidate among those still playing?

Memphis didn't have a clear cut regular season guy, but the breakout bench guy in the first round for them was Brandon Clarke. We'll see if he can keep that up.

For Golden State, Otto Porter Jr. really seems like he should have been a 6MOY candidate in the regular season. Chances are he'll be someone I seriously consider. Let me also shout out Gary Payton II though. It would take a huge post-season for him to surpass Porter for me I think.

For Dallas, Dinwiddie & Kleber are the guys who seem like they could grab hold of our attention here.

For Boston, Grant Williams deserves some love.

For Milwaukee, there was a time when I was thinking about George Hill here, but at this point Connaughton & Matthews seem to be the guys. Incidentally, fascinating to me the way that both Hill & Matthews keep coming back to the Bucks and playing significant minutes.

For Philly, how about that Danny Green? How long ago was he supposed to be washed?

COY

In the RS, I had Monty Williams, Taylor Jenkins & Erik Spoelstra leading the way. In all 3 cases, these coaches are likely going to be vulnerable if their teams get upset. Jenkins & the Grizz seem the most suspect to this point.

I think Ime Udoka seems poised to end up a very strong candidate if the Celtics keep it up. What a turnaround!

I think Steve Kerr deserves his respect. Yup, he's got talent on his team...talent that plays completely differently from the talent on any other NBA team because of his coaching decisions. When they thrive - and thrive more than others - hard for me to ignore him.

I don't trust Jason Kidd on a number of levels, but the Mavs are looking good right now. Were they to keep looking like this, particularly with an upset of the Suns, Kidd could become a serious candidate for me.

Shout out to the Pelicans' Willie Green. I don't like giving COY to guys who simply get their team to the 1st Round and so probably won't vote for him here, but he was quite impressive this year.

Coach Bud's team is still playing after his team won the title last year. If the Bucks go deep again, I may have to consider him even as I've become so skeptical of him in the playoffs.

Billy Donovan, like Green, to me didn't really coach an elite enough team to make my ballot probably, but I think he's continuing to show that he's just plain a quality coach, whether in college or the pros, and he's someone worth considering if you have a core that's coachable.

JB Bickerstaff - less confident in him, but he was part of the Cavalier success this year and I've got nothing bad to say about him.

EOY

Always a tricky award. Feel like we need to lay out all the moves of the year to make sure we didn't miss anyone. So I haven't even really begun to make a ballot yet, but teams on my mind:

Pat Riley for Miami - got Kyle Lowry, PJ Tucker, Victor Oladipo, and Max Strus. The type of GMing season that won't seem like a big deal unless Miami makes serious noise in the playoffs, but man, that's a bunch of great moves adding to a team that didn't seem like it would be easy to add to.

Brad Stevens for Boston - does a GM get GMing credit for firing his coach self and hiring a new guy who seems to be better at getting the players to do the things he himself wasn't able to? I mean, I think so, yeah. Funny how it all works. But then him getting rid of the flawed point guards that the Celtics kept acquiring in the Ainge era and going with a Smart-as PG model, while also bringing back Horford & Derrick White, was really good stuff.

Daryl Morey for Philly - has to be discussed. The way he was able to successfully hold out and get Harden for Simmons gave us an "apologize to Daryl" moment, but I've been holding on to my wallet. Realistically that worked out in part because Harden clearly doesn't look as he good as when Morey was first trying to acquire him from Houston, and while I'd be happy to give him the EOY nod if it ended up clearly working out with a chip or something close to it, now it looks like we're going to end up uncertain about it all with Embiid's injury. I'm not in love with the idea that Philly give Harden a max deal, and could see feeling like the Harden acquisition in the end was a mistake. It's been interesting watching CJ in NO and think "Might the 76ers have been better had they just taken that deal which would have meant giving up a lot less?". Honestly, one of the things giving me pause there is just that Maxey - who was Morey's draft pick - looks so good and adding another small guard to the mix might have been a bad idea no matter who it was given Maxey's emergence.

Masai Ujiri for Toronto - drafted Scottie Barnes when it was considered a reach. In general the EOY doesn't typically go to a guy who drafted well that year because we don't truly know how well he drafted until more time has passed, but the reality is that there's nothing more valuable for a GM than to be a great drafter. He has been that prior to this year, and now with his highest draft choice, he's gotten the last laugh again.

Arturas Karnisovas for Chicago - was my early EOY because he was right something I was wrong about (DeRozan), and I loved his acquisition of the Lakers' defense. In the end though, my estimation of the Bulls hasn't really shifted that much. I don't think they'd have gotten past the 1st Round even they were fully healthy, and I don't think committing to expensive aging volume scorers in the name of a 1st Round exit is the most impressive thing a GM can do.

Koby Altman for Cleveland - happy for him how well things have turned out. Tricky EOY candidate because to me the biggest things the Cavs have going for them are Darius Garland - acquired in an earlier year and achieving prominence this year due to the injuries of others rather than great franchise vision - and Even Mobley - who was the the consensus pick at the spot they drafted. I think that if you love Jarrett Allen and/or Bickerstaff, I could see giving Altman the nod, but I'm a bit gunshy.

Shout out to Kevin Pritchard in Indiana with the Halliburton move in particular in mind. It was time to move on from that previous core, and I think they got someone good and young. Doubt that will be enough to crack my ballot though.

Clearly I'm going East first and then West on this one, which is the opposite of how I typically thing about things - being a West Coast guy - but the big candidates largely seem to be in the East. The top teams in the West all thrived on the back of core talents they already had the previous year.

I do want to give Bob Myers (GS) some love for the small-contract moves they made, but to be honest, I feel like that's more Kerr than upper management, and I don't think the franchise deserves particular praise for their high draft picks.

Nico Harrison over in Dallas has to be feeling great right now. The Kidd hire seems to working, and the Porzingis-Dinwiddie move has gone about as well as you could possibly hope. Still will be reluctant to give too much love for Harrison given the backbone of the Mavs' success right now is built on players from the previous regime - Donnie Nelson's 2018 Draft looking all the more impressive.

[Dutchball97]

ROY

So, I'm really looking forward to people's arguments here, but I think all the major players are done now so we should be able to have that final discussion. I've got 4 guys on my mind: Even Mobley, Scottie Barnes, Cade Cunningham & Herb Jones. In reverse order:

I think Herb - love calling him Herb btw - has an argument for Most Valuable Rookie. With his defense, he was ready to make an impact from the jump. A great steal as a 2nd Round pick, and one more thing blooming this season that seems like it's going to save GM Griffin's job.

But when I evaluate ROY, I do think about future relevance. Not saying anyone else has to - and would admire someone putting Herb as their #1 pick - but I don't expect him to have the career going forward as the other 3. To be clear: I'm not saying that I ignore actual rookie performance when looking at ROY, but I do look at the "role they are auditioning for" and how much promise they demonstrated this year.

Had Cunningham played the whole year like he started, Herb would be on my ballot over Cade...but I think Cade showed enough that he feels like a future all-star and a reasonable proto-franchise player. Not because he was the #1 pick, but the stuff that made him the #1 pick, yeah, pretty legit.

That of course may make you think: So, if he's a legit #1, why isn't he your #1?

Because I think Barnes & Mobley are future all-stars too, and in addition to them being more valuable than Cunningham this year, I actually think they are more likely to play a core role on a contender than he is, and I'm not sure their ceiling is any lower than his given their 2-way impact.

Barnes & Mobley is the place where I've really gone back & forth on. I was surprised and happy that Barnes beat out Mobley for the ROY...but at the moment I'm still leaning Mobley. If one of these guys ends up being an MVP-level player, I'd say Mobley is most likely to be that guy.

Now, were my ballot a Most Valuable Rookie ballot, I think I would have Barnes ahead of Mobley if only because of Mobley's missed time, but I'd say Mobley's made the more eye-opening impression to me.

One thing though: This is me perhaps being behind-the-times. The fact that Mobley is a true defensive big is helping him over Barnes here, and I think you could argue it shouldn't. It's possible that Barnes will prove to be the less exploitable defender against all playoff matchups going forward, and possibly if folks could convince me of this, I'll end up siding with Scottie - love calling him Scottie btw.

First off, great post. I have some small disagreements here and there but on the whole I think you summarized the current standing of the races really well. ROY is the category I'm most unsure about though. Finding a balance between how well the rookies did this year and how much promise they showed going forward isn't an easy thing to do. I personally lean more towards performance over potential though as giving out awards based on projection can be a bit of a crapshoot. Last year I had LaMelo and Haliburton 1 and 2 with Edwards as my third pick due to his improvement over the season. Looks pretty similar to this year with Mobley/Barnes as the steady performers and Cade as the guy making a case as the season goes on. My main issue with Cade though is that unlike last year there are actually more than 2 guys that impressed over the entire season.

You already mentioned Herb Jones and based on statistical imprint and nothing else he might actually be in contention for that #1 spot. He's even the most valuable rookie this year according to LEBRON and near the top in both EPM and RAPTOR. Though he doesn't seem to really have the same star potential as some of the more high profile rookies. The biggest thing going against him on that front is his age to me. It's just hard to imagine a 23 year old rookie making big steps when he already looks like pretty much a finished product. Especially when the other candidates are all still 20.

The guy I'm leaning towards for my 3rd spot on my ballot is currently Franz Wagner and I'm a bit surprised he doesn't get a lot of mentions in the ROY sweepstakes. I get he's a white Euro who doesn't have the most flashy playstyle and he's on the Magic but still I think while that probably matters for the media award, it shouldn't really play a role here. In terms of statistical performance across the board he seems like the most consistently high rated across the impact stats I just mentioned, being top 3 in all of them. Unlike Herb Jones I do think Wagner shows plenty of promise going forward as well. I don't think it is crazy to say he already looks like the best player on the Magic and his teammates definitely look at him like that already. I'm not sure his ceiling is as high as Cade or even more raw prospects like Jalen Green and Kuminga but with his combination of performance and potential I'd find it hard not to have him on my ballot and I think he should at least be a HM for the people who do prefer Herb or Cade.

[Doctor MJ]

ROY

So, I'm really looking forward to people's arguments here, but I think all the major players are done now so we should be able to have that final discussion. I've got 4 guys on my mind: Even Mobley, Scottie Barnes, Cade Cunningham & Herb Jones. In reverse order:

I think Herb - love calling him Herb btw - has an argument for Most Valuable Rookie. With his defense, he was ready to make an impact from the jump. A great steal as a 2nd Round pick, and one more thing blooming this season that seems like it's going to save GM Griffin's job.

But when I evaluate ROY, I do think about future relevance. Not saying anyone else has to - and would admire someone putting Herb as their #1 pick - but I don't expect him to have the career going forward as the other 3. To be clear: I'm not saying that I ignore actual rookie performance when looking at ROY, but I do look at the "role they are auditioning for" and how much promise they demonstrated this year.

Had Cunningham played the whole year like he started, Herb would be on my ballot over Cade...but I think Cade showed enough that he feels like a future all-star and a reasonable proto-franchise player. Not because he was the #1 pick, but the stuff that made him the #1 pick, yeah, pretty legit.

That of course may make you think: So, if he's a legit #1, why isn't he your #1?

Because I think Barnes & Mobley are future all-stars too, and in addition to them being more valuable than Cunningham this year, I actually think they are more likely to play a core role on a contender than he is, and I'm not sure their ceiling is any lower than his given their 2-way impact.

Barnes & Mobley is the place where I've really gone back & forth on. I was surprised and happy that Barnes beat out Mobley for the ROY...but at the moment I'm still leaning Mobley. If one of these guys ends up being an MVP-level player, I'd say Mobley is most likely to be that guy.

Now, were my ballot a Most Valuable Rookie ballot, I think I would have Barnes ahead of Mobley if only because of Mobley's missed time, but I'd say Mobley's made the more eye-opening impression to me.

One thing though: This is me perhaps being behind-the-times. The fact that Mobley is a true defensive big is helping him over Barnes here, and I think you could argue it shouldn't. It's possible that Barnes will prove to be the less exploitable defender against all playoff matchups going forward, and possibly if folks could convince me of this, I'll end up siding with Scottie - love calling him Scottie btw.

First off, great post. I have some small disagreements here and there but on the whole I think you summarized the current standing of the races really well. ROY is the category I'm most unsure about though. Finding a balance between how well the rookies did this year and how much promise they showed going forward isn't an easy thing to do. I personally lean more towards performance over potential though as giving out awards based on projection can be a bit of a crapshoot. Last year I had LaMelo and Haliburton 1 and 2 with Edwards as my third pick due to his improvement over the season. Looks pretty similar to this year with Mobley/Barnes as the steady performers and Cade as the guy making a case as the season goes on. My main issue with Cade though is that unlike last year there are actually more than 2 guys that impressed over the entire season.

You already mentioned Herb Jones and based on statistical imprint and nothing else he might actually be in contention for that #1 spot. He's even the most valuable rookie this year according to LEBRON and near the top in both EPM and RAPTOR. Though he doesn't seem to really have the same star potential as some of the more high profile rookies. The biggest thing going against him on that front is his age to me. It's just hard to imagine a 23 year old rookie making big steps when he already looks like pretty much a finished product. Especially when the other candidates are all still 20.

The guy I'm leaning towards for my 3rd spot on my ballot is currently Franz Wagner and I'm a bit surprised he doesn't get a lot of mentions in the ROY sweepstakes. I get he's a white Euro who doesn't have the most flashy playstyle and he's on the Magic but still I think while that probably matters for the media award, it shouldn't really play a role here. In terms of statistical performance across the board he seems like the most consistently high rated across the impact stats I just mentioned, being top 3 in all of them. Unlike Herb Jones I do think Wagner shows plenty of promise going forward as well. I don't think it is crazy to say he already looks like the best player on the Magic and his teammates definitely look at him like that already. I'm not sure his ceiling is as high as Cade or even more raw prospects like Jalen Green and Kuminga but with his combination of performance and potential I'd find it hard not to have him on my ballot and I think he should at least be a HM for the people who do prefer Herb or Cade.

Thank you and yeah, I don't expect everyone to use precisely the same criteria for me on any award, but ROY might be the award where I think things deviate most wildly.

Some history here: I remember Xavier McDaniel arguing that he should have won the ROY over Patrick Ewing in '85-86 (X finished 2nd) because he had played 82 games while Ewing only played 50. It crystalized something for me because he absolutely has a point...but I'm inclined to side with the voters, so what exactly are my criteria that would justify Ewing over X?

Now, in that case, the consensus was that Ewing was better when he played, he just missed time. That makes it a relatively simple case, and I'll say that the most recent glaring analogue along these lines was '16-17 where Malcolm Brogdan beat out Joel Embiid. Granted, Embiid missed a lot more time than Ewing and so it's possible for someone to be coherent in their view and side with both Ewing & Brogdan, but I was with Embiid all the way there.

There's another level to this year though because you can make the argument, for example, that Barnes is the better player right now and played more, and so a choice of Mobley really is just projecting into the future which isn't fair for an "of the Year" award. But of course, what was the justification for ignoring time played for Ewing in the first place?

I don't believe it ever actually was just about how good he was as a rookie, I do think voters were thinking about whose play made the player most worthy of hype, and I do think that this is something that's really always been apart of awards like these.

Nevertheless, I completely respect folks who say "Dude, I ain't playing that game".

In the end, I love that you focused on this award for further discussion because the race is so tight this year and I'm super-excited about both Barnes & Mobley going forward. (And I'll also respect Cade or Herb votes too.)

[Texas Chuck]

Sure feeling more and more like for me POY is a 2 man race now. It's does Giannis catch Jokic? And early evidence has me thinking yes, he does.

I thought they were clearly the 2 best RS players with apologies to Embiid as a clear 3rd and now Embiid's opportunity to gain ground is hampered.

And frankly Giannis could stranglehold this award a la Lebron for many years to come. He's just so good. He won't ever get that due here because of how he does it, but his impact is simply undeniable for me.