tmorgan wrote:Jsindto wrote:Hey guys. Been an off and on again lurker, but decided to get into the forum.
Like most here, I personally think giving up what the proposed trade was is too much given the uncertainty of Zion.
Having said that, if the Pistons land the #1 pick, and for this exercise say that Zion would be good with staying with Detroit at least through his rookie max extension, would you trade that pick straight up for Zion?
I think I personally would gamble on that. You're obviously taking a gamble that he never is healthy again, but if he is and he's more Embiid than he is Oden with his big man injuries, you have a top 10 NBA caliber player. And outside of Chet, nobody that you'd be taking at #1 has that type of potential. So you're gambling that you lose a Chet/Paolo/Jabari for nothing if he never recovers, but you're getting the potential of Zion which is greater than anything in this draft. And without giving up any of the other assets in Bey/Hayes/pick swap next year.
Welcome.
Yes, Zion is likely more talented than anyone in this draft (tho I do think Sharpe is a supreme talent if you have patience), so from that perspective, it’s a win for the #1 pick. But the money issue is the problem. Zion is a year away from getting PAID, and the Pistons are more than a year away from contending. Is this a proper plan, use most of our available resources for a guy with injury and weight control issues? That’s a big risk and a big reward, if he wants to stay and can get healthy. Too many ifs for me.
Agreed on Sharpe as potential top 10 player material. I didn't include him though because 1) I don't see any chance of him being in #1 conversation, and 2) his uncertainty level makes him in a class separate from Chet IMO in terms of the vision of him potentially being a top 10 caliber player.
I hear what you're saying, but if you're not paying Zion $30M (in this hypothetical) beginning with the 2023-2024 season, you're paying somebody that, or someone a large chunk of money. It's not like the MLB where if you're not ready you can have a low payroll, and then go gangbusters when you're ready to. Obviously you can go safe with short term contracts before truly going for it a few more years down the road, but with Cade I expect them to be in the playoffs starting with that 2023-2024 season. So I don't view paying Zion $30M beginning that year as a negative, with the (very massive) caveat that he is healthy enough to play.
Like I said though, completely fair to be scared away due to the injuries. I'd gamble for it since it's the one asset and not the 3+ assets that the original trade was for. But it definitely can blow up in your face.