Bill Simmons Trade Idea: Zion for Bey, Hayes, First

[bstein14]

any move like this is Blake Griffen all over again. stop hitting the reset button, and stay with the plan moving forward.

Except Zion is still just 21 years old.

Except he's played 85 games over 3 seasons so far. He has a frame / weight issues that historically lead to injuries / a shortened prime / career. He likely doesn't even want to be in Detroit.

That's actually 3 for 3 in parallels to Blake Griffin when he arrived in Detroit. So it's actually a pretty solid comparison.

Oh: and both did/would require a massive salary commitment that instantly becomes an albatross in the event the predictable actually occurs. So that's 4 for 4.

It's a no brainer to pass on any Zion deal if he doesn't want to be here. That's likely why there would be a deal in the first place, he doesn't want to be in New Orleans. We'd be foolish to trade for him if he doesn't want to play here, and that's something you can figure out before making a move.

His injury concerns are also the only reason a team could get him without a huge haul. If he was fully healthy the last 3 seasons he'd likely be the #1 asset in the entire league.

Trading for Blake on the tail end of his career, past his prime, is much different than trading for a 21 year old Zion. Zion is literally only a month older than Keegan Murray, who many people here would consider with our pick if we're drafting 5th or 6th.

[Invictus88]

Except Zion is still just 21 years old.

Except he's played 85 games over 3 seasons so far. He has a frame / weight issues that historically lead to injuries / a shortened prime / career. He likely doesn't even want to be in Detroit.

That's actually 3 for 3 in parallels to Blake Griffin when he arrived in Detroit. So it's actually a pretty solid comparison.

Oh: and both did/would require a massive salary commitment that instantly becomes an albatross in the event the predictable actually occurs. So that's 4 for 4.

It's a no brainer to pass on any Zion deal if he doesn't want to be here. That's likely why there would be a deal in the first place, he doesn't want to be in New Orleans. We'd be foolish to trade for him if he doesn't want to play here, and that's something you can figure out before making a move.

His injury concerns are also the only reason a team could get him without a huge haul. If he was fully healthy the last 3 seasons he'd likely be the #1 asset in the entire league.

Trading for Blake on the tail end of his career, past his prime, is much different than trading for a 21 year old Zion. Zion is literally only a month older than Keegan Murray, who many people here would consider with our pick if we're drafting 5th or 6th.

But Keegan Murray doesn't have a three year history of injuries limiting him to 35% of games played during that stretch. He doesn't have noted weight and frame issues.

Yes. You are correct that if Zion were in perfect health that the asking price would be higher IF he wanted to play here. But there's really no middle ground here. N.O. doesn't try to trade him away if he wants to stay. They take their time if he's healthy to create a bidding war for him. But neither of these two things is likely true. And as such they might try to get whatever they can get for him because they see the risks of keeping him firsthand.

Blake had at least 3+ years of injury history leading up to the Pistons trade. Nobody really thought he was going to be able to be healthy through the terms of his contract. The Clippers were praised for being able to offload that contract and actually get something back for it. Meanwhile we basically got one really good season and then were saddled with a hobbling guy who couldn't jump or defend for the remainder of the contract.

It should be kind of obvious in terms of the similarities by this point; so I've probably gone way past where I reasonably needed to in order to explain it.

[Manocad]

So to wrap it up, making a trade for Zion would require:
- Giving up a draft pick that figures to be a key piece in the rebuild
- Assumption of huge injury risk
- Massive financial commitment
- Dismissing the fact that there's no glaring need to make a move like that right now
- Dismissing the availability of other less risky avenues
- Assuming he'd want to come to Detroit

No is the no brainer here. "But the team would be so awesome if he were healthy!" That logic is starting from the wrong end--IF he were healthy, not "Yes, there is some risk there but he's healthy now." The guy still isn't even playing, for pete's sake.

[vege]

I will not add too much information, to make it easy for people to see

Tatum 57.6TS% - 26.4 PPG
Irving 61.4TS% - 26.9 PPG
Zion 64.5TS% - 27.0 PPG <- 20 years old
Lavine 63.4TS% - 27.4 PPG
Luka 58.7TS% - 27.7 PPG
Giannis 63.3TS% - 28.1 PPG
Embiid 63.6TS% - 28.5 PPG
Dame 62.3TS% - 28.8 PPG
Beal 59.3TS% - 31.3 PPG
Curry 65.5TS% - 32.0 PPG

Zion was arguably a top 5 offensive player in the league last season, when he played 61 out of 71 games, at the age of 20 and those numbers don't show the whole picture.

The guy is unstoppable, and he have a ton of room to improve. I would not take the risk of trading a top 3 pick + Bey for him but it's at least tempting. Zion and Cade could be the foundation of a Dynasty.

[Manocad]

Zion isn’t unstoppable; he isn’t even playing. He’s at full stop and has been for the majority of his career.

[Scottgaf]

Zion isn’t unstoppable; he isn’t even playing. He’s at full stop and has been for the majority of his career.

he's also a defensive liability, and would be joining a team with a few of those already.

[Billl]

A healthy zion in a beast. But he's not healthy. When he came into the league, the common concern was "No way does a guy that size try to jump over people every night and not get injured". And that's exactly what has happened. And then he gained like 80 lbs.

Maybe a change of scenery would get through to him. And he'll really focus on his nutrition and rehab? I wouldn't be a top top 5 pick plus Bey + 5 years of max dead cap space on that though.

[breezypeezy]

Is Zion even an NBA player anymore?
We need players that actually suit up and play.
I get it the dude had one monster season.......and then he proved his body could not withstand the rigor of actual fulltime competition.
Bo Jackson was king of the world......... and then he wasnt. That's what happens when the body can't anymore. Kings are reduced to our mere mortal abilities.
Zion may never play another full season, you don't gamble away lotto picks plus future assets on that. Period, FULLSTOP.

[DetroitDon15]

So to wrap it up, making a trade for Zion would require:
- Giving up a draft pick that figures to be a key piece in the rebuild
- Assumption of huge injury risk
- Massive financial commitment
- Dismissing the fact that there's no glaring need to make a move like that right now
- Dismissing the availability of other less risky avenues
- Assuming he'd want to come to Detroit

No is the no brainer here. "But the team would be so awesome if he were healthy!" That logic is starting from the wrong end--IF he were healthy, not "Yes, there is some risk there but he's healthy now." The guy still isn't even playing, for pete's sake.

I’ll go one step further. Dude is built like Barkley in the later years. He’s not in shape and didn’t play any meaningful minutes last year. I’m not willing to take him on at whatever cost. If he was motivated and wanted to be a hall of famer, this “idea” would not have seen light of day. Honestly, I saw Simmons on the article and knew it was going to be a crazy (terrible) idea for Detroit.

[buzzkilloton]

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/266791/Pelicans-Not-Expected-To-Offer-Fully-Guaranteed-Five-Year-Max-To-Zion-Williamson

Ah yes the team trading him doesnt even want to sign him for the full 5 year deal. Sounds like a guy to trade a top 5 pick for and invest a max into!

[Manocad]

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/266791/Pelicans-Not-Expected-To-Offer-Fully-Guaranteed-Five-Year-Max-To-Zion-Williamson

Ah yes the team trading him doesnt even want to sign him for the full 5 year deal. Sounds like a guy to trade a top 5 pick for and invest a max into!

No worries. The Pistons can probably still get Blake to come back.