2022 Offseason thread

[Jikkle]

Feeling around the league is the Jets are going to put together an offer the 9ers can't refuse for Deebo.

My guess is they offer #10, 2nd rounder, and a future 1st round with the 9ers kicking them back a 4th or 5th rounder.

That would be an offer they wouldn't turn down because odds are that future first is a top 15 maybe top 10 pick as the Jets should be better but in a brutal AFC it's tough for me to imagine they'd be massively improved.

[thesack12]

The two quickest/easiest ways to ruin a young QB is putting him behind a shoddy offensive line and not surrounding him with viable weapons. If Deebo walks out that door, the 49ers will be exposing Trey Lance to both of those things. Frequently changing the OC/offensive scheme is the 3rd of the terrible trifecta of things you can do to a young QB, but fortunately we don't have to worry about that one for now.

Even if Mack returns, the O-line is highly suspect going into the season. Its not even like Mack is a high end C at this point in his career and he's 37 years old, so C should be a priority anyways. Trent Williams is great, but he's obviously at the tail end of his career and is starting to become more and more susceptible to getting banged up. We all know the story with Aaron Banks, but until he's able to prove he can be a solid player, let alone even dress on gamedays, I'm not going to consider him promising. Moore is a late round pick, that doesn't have much upside.

In other words, 9ers are old and quite thin along the offensive line. Two things that don't bode well for any team, and even worse so for a team with a green as goose poop quarterback.

Even with having Deebo in the fold, the 9ers cache of weapons is very thin and kind of over-rated. Subtracting Deebo from that equation, and we are looking at a bottom 10 collection of weaponry. Kittle hasn't been at the top of his game the last couple seasons. A lot of that can be attributed to his health and the fact that he's frequently needed to stay in and help pass protection. You hope he can stay healthy, but I honestly see no reason to believe that he won't be needed as much for pass protection moving forward. Aiyuk has been a disappointment so far. The simple fact that he was passed up by Trent Sherfield and stayed firmly in Shanahan's doghouse for several weeks/games, isn't encouraging. Jennings came on at the end of last season, but realistically he's probably not going to be anything more than a slightly better version of Kendrick Bourne. I.E. a decent 3rd down/possession receiver with inconsistent hands. Outside of those guys, there really isn't anything worth mentioning. If Deebo isn't on the field, defenses will key in on Kittle/Aiyuk which will likely render them to be even less effective than they have been recently.

Long story short, going into this draft I would be prioritizing the 2 areas that will be directly responsible for helping the young QB, which is O-line and weaponry. 9ers gave up a very expensive cache of draft picks, and will be moving on from a solid/very successful QB to do so. Positioning Lance to succeed, should be priority #1, #2, and #3.

Without a Deebo trade, The only defensive position I would even consider at the top half of the draft is CB. And that's probably only if the value of a CB on the board is just too good to pass up. With a Deebo trade, IMO its makes it a lock they should go all offense in the first half of the draft. While the pass rush could use a boost, I feel MUCH more confident in that group now and for the next couple years than I do about the O-line and a Deebo-less WR corps.

Generally speaking, I agree entirely that the focus must be on supporting Lance. That said, they just used a high second-rounder on an interior OL, and as a general proposition, that's a position you can address on the second and third day. I have serious doubts about Banks, but Shanahan doesn't like playing rookies if he can avoid it, so not playing much isn't as big an indictment as it might otherwise be. But it's sounding like Mack may be done, and that creates a ton of uncertainty on the interior. McGlinchey isn't very good, but we aren't likely to find a replacement for him this season. That said, we need to add two or three OL in this draft as far as I'm concerned.

In terms of Deebo and the offensive weapons, a few thoughts. First, obviously you'd like to keep him. But if he's adamant he's not going to play for the team, then you try to turn him into something. But sure, you've got to take steps to replace him if you let him walk.

I strongly disagree that our weaponry is overrated, though. With Deebo in the fold, we're up there with the league leaders in offensive firepower. Sure, the depth chart is relatively thin, but Deebo is an elite receiver. And Aiyuk is damn good. The fact that Shanahan was playing Sherfield and Sanu over him early in the year is more an indictment of Shanahan than Aiyuk, though I can see a coach trying to send a message to a player. He's a very effective deep threat, but we haven't had a QB who can take advantage of that. Aiyuk was roasting guys in the playoffs, but Jimmy wasn't hitting him.

As for Kittle, the dude is every bit as talented as he was in 2018, we just didn't use him very effectively or consistently. Again, Jimmy checked down to Kittle a ton, but he wasn't airing it out effectively. Kittle has actually been at his most effective playing with other QBs, particularly Mullens. Kittle averaged 96 YPG in seven starts with Mullens at QB in 2018. In 2020, they only played two full games together, but Kittle had 183 yards and 92 yards in those two games. The reality is that Jimmy was holding him back.

In terms of the defense, if we have the chance to get a legit pass-rusher in the second - and the way this draft is shaping up, we might - we need to strongly consider it. An impact pass rusher opposite Bosa has the potential to take the D to another level. CB and S remain concerns, but we're now three-deep with starting caliber players at CB, at least.

I agree with your overall thoughts on the O-line. McGlinchey is not a long term option at RT, or at least he shouldn't be. I hope he's gone after this season. If they trade Deebo, they will definitely be getting a 1st round pick. With that pick, depending on what the board looks like of course, I think they seriously need to consider going with OT there. We have to remember that the 49ers do not have a 1st rounder next year either, so they will be hard pressed to have another opportunity to bring in a high end OT prospect/McGlinchey replacement in the near future.

Regarding Banks specifically, I think the Shanahan doesn't like rookies stance is overblown. McGlinchey started all 16 games as a rookie, Aiyuk started 11 of 12 games played as a rookie, Deebo started 11 of 15 games played as a rookie, and even Pettis started 7 of 12 games played as a rookie.

While we'd all like to think its not the case, its entirely possible that Aaron Banks is just not good and will be a wasted draft pick. The simple fact that he played a grand total of 5 offensive snaps last year and was a healthy inactive for more games than he suited up, doesn't shine a encouraging light on him no matter how you want to look at it. Regardless, he has shown literally zero to indicate that he should be/can be relied upon moving forward. I'm also always weary of falling into the sunken cost fallacy. Just because they used a 2nd to draft Banks, absolutely should not prevent them hesitating on investing in OG. If Banks is trash, he's trash. That isn't me saying that they should just cut him now if he sucks, but if he does indeed suck they need to be looking into other alternatives.

Similarly to the Banks/Shanahan situation, I also am not going hang Aiyuk being in the doghouse the first part of last season entirely on Kyle. While its true Kyle is famously hard on WR's, as that was the position he played, its not like he just throws guys in the doghouse at the drop of a hat. The last WR who got put in there, did so because he wasn't getting things done and just flat out isn't a good player. Me saying that is not suggesting that I think that Brandon Aiyuk is Dante Pettis 2.0, because he's not. I'm just saying that there is a reason why Kyle decided to subtract Aiyuk from the gameplan for several weeks, and that reason probably doesn't paint Aiyuk in the best of lights. Especially considering the alternatives was Trent Sherfield and Mohamed Sanu. The good news is, that it seems to have worked itself out as we got to the midpoint of last season.

About Kittle's production. I disagree that Garoppolo was just playing checkdown to him all season. George's average depth of target last season was a career high 8.3 yards, which is a full yard more than he had in 2020 with 7.3 and he was down at 7.1 DOT in 2018. Jimmy's checkdown to George year was in 2019, where his DOT was only 5.9 yards. Coincidentally George was beasting with YAC in Mullens' year of 2018 with a career high 9.9 YAC. Last season George was only getting 6.3 YAC.

Actually Kittle/Deebo/Aiyuk all set career high DOT last season.

As mentioned Kittle improved his by a full yard going from 7.3 to 8.3
Aiyuk improved from 9.4 to 9.8
Deebo's highwater mark improved from 7.5 to 8.4.

Mullens and his receivers' numbers were buoyed by the handful of deep balls he will hit from time to time, whereas Jimmy will consistently and reliably pepper receivers in the mid range of the field game.

Regarding the weaponry overall, one thing that could really help the offense overall (and specifically Lance) is an RB with some solid receiving chops. We have yet to see Shanny believe Mitchell has that in his game. Until he shows me anything of significance, I am considering Sermon to be a mere body. Jeff Wilson is a "0kay" receiver out of the backfield, but nothing noteworthy. I mentioned it after the signing, but Perhaps McCloud can be used in a scatback type role out of the backfield. But that is probably a reach, and he will need to be able to provide some pass protection to have that type of usage which he probably is not capable of.

As for the defense, looks like I'm in the minority but I still don't trust Ambry Thomas. He surely showed some flashes late in the year, but he also was a big liability out there for the majority of time he was on the field. With him sitting out his 2020 college season, hopefully a lot of his struggles were attributed to rust and trying to get his rhythm back. So there is some optimism there, but I personally don't consider him an automatic starter. Depth at CB is thin, and we currently don't know who will be the primary slot CB. As for the pass rush, while every team can always use more juice there I just feel like with Kocurek in the fold the 9ers have a very good history of mining production out of unheralded players. Whether it be low round picks, castoffs from other teams, or low end free agents. I believe that the defense overall can scheme up a viable pass rush. Whereas last season we saw all to clearly that no amount of scheme will be able to mask the deficiencies at CB. Ward signing obviously helps, and it was nice to see this regime prioritize the CB position for once, but they still need more there.

[thesack12]

Feeling around the league is the Jets are going to put together an offer the 9ers can't refuse for Deebo.

My guess is they offer #10, 2nd rounder, and a future 1st round with the 9ers kicking them back a 4th or 5th rounder.

That would be an offer they wouldn't turn down because odds are that future first is a top 15 maybe top 10 pick as the Jets should be better but in a brutal AFC it's tough for me to imagine they'd be massively improved.

Yeah, if reports out there about Deebo not even wanting the 49ers to make an offer he just wants out, are even remotely true there is absolutely no way they can turn that down. That is insane value, its a better package than the Packers got for Adams and the Chiefs got for Hill. Not that its a huge factor or anything, but its also worth noting that he would be going to the AFC in that trade.

Honestly, even if Deebo is actually amenable to staying, I'd still probably do that trade. I love Deebo, we all do, but his health will always be a concern due to his style of play and he wants top 3 WR money which now approaches $30 mil/season. Also, if they plan to scale back his usage in the run game (or cut it out entirely) his value obviously goes way down.

[CrimsonCrew]

Feeling around the league is the Jets are going to put together an offer the 9ers can't refuse for Deebo.

My guess is they offer #10, 2nd rounder, and a future 1st round with the 9ers kicking them back a 4th or 5th rounder.

That would be an offer they wouldn't turn down because odds are that future first is a top 15 maybe top 10 pick as the Jets should be better but in a brutal AFC it's tough for me to imagine they'd be massively improved.

That would be a pretty crazy offer, and I'd jump at it. Heck, if they offered the 10th and a high second, I'd probably take that rather than force the issue with Deebo and run the risk of him both refusing to play and lowering his trade value for next year.

[CrimsonCrew]

I agree with your overall thoughts on the O-line. McGlinchey is not a long term option at RT, or at least he shouldn't be. I hope he's gone after this season. If they trade Deebo, they will definitely be getting a 1st round pick. With that pick, depending on what the board looks like of course, I think they seriously need to consider going with OT there. We have to remember that the 49ers do not have a 1st rounder next year either, so they will be hard pressed to have another opportunity to bring in a high end OT prospect/McGlinchey replacement in the near future.

Regarding Banks specifically, I think the Shanahan doesn't like rookies stance is overblown. McGlinchey started all 16 games as a rookie, Aiyuk started 11 of 12 games played as a rookie, Deebo started 11 of 15 games played as a rookie, and even Pettis started 7 of 12 games played as a rookie.

While we'd all like to think its not the case, its entirely possible that Aaron Banks is just not good and will be a wasted draft pick. The simple fact that he played a grand total of 5 offensive snaps last year and was a healthy inactive for more games than he suited up, doesn't shine a encouraging light on him no matter how you want to look at it. Regardless, he has shown literally zero to indicate that he should be/can be relied upon moving forward. I'm also always weary of falling into the sunken cost fallacy. Just because they used a 2nd to draft Banks, absolutely should not prevent them hesitating on investing in OG. If Banks is trash, he's trash. That isn't me saying that they should just cut him now if he sucks, but if he does indeed suck they need to be looking into other alternatives.

Similarly to the Banks/Shanahan situation, I also am not going hang Aiyuk being in the doghouse the first part of last season entirely on Kyle. While its true Kyle is famously hard on WR's, as that was the position he played, its not like he just throws guys in the doghouse at the drop of a hat. The last WR who got put in there, did so because he wasn't getting things done and just flat out isn't a good player. Me saying that is not suggesting that I think that Brandon Aiyuk is Dante Pettis 2.0, because he's not. I'm just saying that there is a reason why Kyle decided to subtract Aiyuk from the gameplan for several weeks, and that reason probably doesn't paint Aiyuk in the best of lights. Especially considering the alternatives was Trent Sherfield and Mohamed Sanu. The good news is, that it seems to have worked itself out as we got to the midpoint of last season.

About Kittle's production. I disagree that Garoppolo was just playing checkdown to him all season. George's average depth of target last season was a career high 8.3 yards, which is a full yard more than he had in 2020 with 7.3 and he was down at 7.1 DOT in 2018. Jimmy's checkdown to George year was in 2019, where his DOT was only 5.9 yards. Coincidentally George was beasting with YAC in Mullens' year of 2018 with a career high 9.9 YAC. Last season George was only getting 6.3 YAC.

Actually Kittle/Deebo/Aiyuk all set career high DOT last season.

As mentioned Kittle improved his by a full yard going from 7.3 to 8.3
Aiyuk improved from 9.4 to 9.8
Deebo's highwater mark improved from 7.5 to 8.4.

Mullens and his receivers' numbers were buoyed by the handful of deep balls he will hit from time to time, whereas Jimmy will consistently and reliably pepper receivers in the mid range of the field game.

Regarding the weaponry overall, one thing that could really help the offense overall (and specifically Lance) is an RB with some solid receiving chops. We have yet to see Shanny believe Mitchell has that in his game. Until he shows me anything of significance, I am considering Sermon to be a mere body. Jeff Wilson is a "0kay" receiver out of the backfield, but nothing noteworthy. I mentioned it after the signing, but Perhaps McCloud can be used in a scatback type role out of the backfield. But that is probably a reach, and he will need to be able to provide some pass protection to have that type of usage which he probably is not capable of.

As for the defense, looks like I'm in the minority but I still don't trust Ambry Thomas. He surely showed some flashes late in the year, but he also was a big liability out there for the majority of time he was on the field. With him sitting out his 2020 college season, hopefully a lot of his struggles were attributed to rust and trying to get his rhythm back. So there is some optimism there, but I personally don't consider him an automatic starter. Depth at CB is thin, and we currently don't know who will be the primary slot CB. As for the pass rush, while every team can always use more juice there I just feel like with Kocurek in the fold the 9ers have a very good history of mining production out of unheralded players. Whether it be low round picks, castoffs from other teams, or low end free agents. I believe that the defense overall can scheme up a viable pass rush. Whereas last season we saw all to clearly that no amount of scheme will be able to mask the deficiencies at CB. Ward signing obviously helps, and it was nice to see this regime prioritize the CB position for once, but they still need more there.

I don't have time to get into all of this right now, but re: Banks, the thing that spoke the most to me about his potential is the fact that we didn't make any sort of a move to address guard in FA despite losing Tomlinson. Now, that's somewhat alarming regardless because we should be looking to upgrade Brunskill if nothing else, but if the FO thought Banks was going to be a train wreck, they would have made some sort of move in the early stages of FA. At least I hope they would have.

But as said, I never liked the Banks pick. I wanted Humphrey if they had gone OL there, and I thought Banks was both a reach and not a player who is terribly well-suited to our scheme. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he struggles.

[CrimsonCrew]

Feeling around the league is the Jets are going to put together an offer the 9ers can't refuse for Deebo.

My guess is they offer #10, 2nd rounder, and a future 1st round with the 9ers kicking them back a 4th or 5th rounder.

That would be an offer they wouldn't turn down because odds are that future first is a top 15 maybe top 10 pick as the Jets should be better but in a brutal AFC it's tough for me to imagine they'd be massively improved.

That would be a pretty crazy offer, and I'd jump at it. Heck, if they offered the 10th and a high second, I'd probably take that rather than force the issue with Deebo and run the risk of him both refusing to play and lowering his trade value for next year.

Report is that the Niners are asking for two first-round picks. That's pretty aggressive if one of the picks is #10. The first-rounders that involved Adams and Hill were 29 and 22. Adams went for 22 and 53, which amounts to 1150 points on the value chart, worth the same as the 13th pick. If the Niners got an offer of 10th, a high second, and more, they'd be crazy to turn that down because it's not technically two first rounders. The 10th pick is worth picks 28 and 29 combined according to the chart.

There is some argument that it's a deep draft that isn't very top-heavy, so arguably the value is a little different here, but that would be pretty negligible.

[CrimsonCrew]

I agree with your overall thoughts on the O-line. McGlinchey is not a long term option at RT, or at least he shouldn't be. I hope he's gone after this season. If they trade Deebo, they will definitely be getting a 1st round pick. With that pick, depending on what the board looks like of course, I think they seriously need to consider going with OT there. We have to remember that the 49ers do not have a 1st rounder next year either, so they will be hard pressed to have another opportunity to bring in a high end OT prospect/McGlinchey replacement in the near future.

Regarding Banks specifically, I think the Shanahan doesn't like rookies stance is overblown. McGlinchey started all 16 games as a rookie, Aiyuk started 11 of 12 games played as a rookie, Deebo started 11 of 15 games played as a rookie, and even Pettis started 7 of 12 games played as a rookie.

While we'd all like to think its not the case, its entirely possible that Aaron Banks is just not good and will be a wasted draft pick. The simple fact that he played a grand total of 5 offensive snaps last year and was a healthy inactive for more games than he suited up, doesn't shine a encouraging light on him no matter how you want to look at it. Regardless, he has shown literally zero to indicate that he should be/can be relied upon moving forward. I'm also always weary of falling into the sunken cost fallacy. Just because they used a 2nd to draft Banks, absolutely should not prevent them hesitating on investing in OG. If Banks is trash, he's trash. That isn't me saying that they should just cut him now if he sucks, but if he does indeed suck they need to be looking into other alternatives.

Similarly to the Banks/Shanahan situation, I also am not going hang Aiyuk being in the doghouse the first part of last season entirely on Kyle. While its true Kyle is famously hard on WR's, as that was the position he played, its not like he just throws guys in the doghouse at the drop of a hat. The last WR who got put in there, did so because he wasn't getting things done and just flat out isn't a good player. Me saying that is not suggesting that I think that Brandon Aiyuk is Dante Pettis 2.0, because he's not. I'm just saying that there is a reason why Kyle decided to subtract Aiyuk from the gameplan for several weeks, and that reason probably doesn't paint Aiyuk in the best of lights. Especially considering the alternatives was Trent Sherfield and Mohamed Sanu. The good news is, that it seems to have worked itself out as we got to the midpoint of last season.

About Kittle's production. I disagree that Garoppolo was just playing checkdown to him all season. George's average depth of target last season was a career high 8.3 yards, which is a full yard more than he had in 2020 with 7.3 and he was down at 7.1 DOT in 2018. Jimmy's checkdown to George year was in 2019, where his DOT was only 5.9 yards. Coincidentally George was beasting with YAC in Mullens' year of 2018 with a career high 9.9 YAC. Last season George was only getting 6.3 YAC.

Actually Kittle/Deebo/Aiyuk all set career high DOT last season.

As mentioned Kittle improved his by a full yard going from 7.3 to 8.3
Aiyuk improved from 9.4 to 9.8
Deebo's highwater mark improved from 7.5 to 8.4.

Mullens and his receivers' numbers were buoyed by the handful of deep balls he will hit from time to time, whereas Jimmy will consistently and reliably pepper receivers in the mid range of the field game.

Regarding the weaponry overall, one thing that could really help the offense overall (and specifically Lance) is an RB with some solid receiving chops. We have yet to see Shanny believe Mitchell has that in his game. Until he shows me anything of significance, I am considering Sermon to be a mere body. Jeff Wilson is a "0kay" receiver out of the backfield, but nothing noteworthy. I mentioned it after the signing, but Perhaps McCloud can be used in a scatback type role out of the backfield. But that is probably a reach, and he will need to be able to provide some pass protection to have that type of usage which he probably is not capable of.

As for the defense, looks like I'm in the minority but I still don't trust Ambry Thomas. He surely showed some flashes late in the year, but he also was a big liability out there for the majority of time he was on the field. With him sitting out his 2020 college season, hopefully a lot of his struggles were attributed to rust and trying to get his rhythm back. So there is some optimism there, but I personally don't consider him an automatic starter. Depth at CB is thin, and we currently don't know who will be the primary slot CB. As for the pass rush, while every team can always use more juice there I just feel like with Kocurek in the fold the 9ers have a very good history of mining production out of unheralded players. Whether it be low round picks, castoffs from other teams, or low end free agents. I believe that the defense overall can scheme up a viable pass rush. Whereas last season we saw all to clearly that no amount of scheme will be able to mask the deficiencies at CB. Ward signing obviously helps, and it was nice to see this regime prioritize the CB position for once, but they still need more there.

So to get back to this, Shanahan will play rookies, but he is clearly pretty averse to it. And the OL is just different. Those guys don't rotate, you can't ease them in. Either you're the starter and playing all the snaps, or you don't see the field. Not being active at all is perhaps more of a concern, but Banks is a pure guard who doesn't have center or tackle potential, so he'd take a backseat to the swing guys. As said, I have serious doubts about Banks, but I've got to think if he was pure garbage, the FO would have tried harder to keep Tomlinson or would have found another guy. Agreed that they still need to take at least one interior OL within the first four rounds, two in the draft, and arguably an OT relatively early, too.

In terms of Aiyuk being in the doghouse, I think that had a lot more to do with attitude and approach than it did talent. Aiyuk has talent. That's plan to see when you watch him play. But from the sound of things, he was pretty immature about certain things. And I don't have a problem with a coach penalizing a guy for that to send a message. Within reason. You don't do something like that in a way that hurts the team. Don't give him the start, or ride his ass in practice. Don't punish the team. We lost games early in the year that we very arguably could/would have won if Aiyuk had seen more looks. Though interestingly, he actually did play quite a lot in those games (around 70% of offensive snaps), we just didn't target him much. Tough to say if that was the gameplan, Jimmy, or something else.

I'm admittedly a bit hazy on ADOT, but my understanding (seemingly confirmed with a little research) is that it's all targets, not receptions. So if Jimmy targets him 50 yards downfield but underthrows him by 10, that's still going into his ADOT. It's not my intention here to crap all over Jimmy, but the fact that we weren't using Kittle as effectively as we could have been isn't on Kittle IMO. He's still the same dude he has been, and is still capable of elite production. I think we didn't use Deebo nearly enough as a receiver late in the season and the postseason, too.

Agreed I'd love to add a RB with some receiving chops. That could be a huge piece for this offense, but it's not a stellar draft for that type of player.

Also agreed on Ambry Thomas. He showed some very encouraging growth, but he was also terrible when he first got out there, and he got picked on a bit in the playoffs. But he's probably the third CB as things stand now, so we're theoretically in better shape than we were last year at this time. But if we trade Deebo for #10, CB is one of the first positions I'm looking at.

I also agree that Kocurek has done a good job of getting production out of unheralded players, but that just makes me want a heralded player all that much more. And a big part of my interest in DE stems from the fact that it's super deep in this draft, so there's a pretty good chance the best player available at 61 will be a DE. A guy like Nik Bonitto, who has some Dee Ford to him, could be a really solid pick in the late second, even if he starts out purely as a situational pass rusher. We're relatively unlikely to land an impact corner at that spot, though I'd strongly consider a safety, WR, or IOL there, too. We've got plenty of holes that need filling, and we almost certainly won't get to them all in this draft, unless we trade Deebo to the Jets for 10, 35, and 38.

[CrimsonCrew]

Missed this somehow, but Ray-Ray McCloud's contract was seemingly incorrectly reported. They initially said two-year, $10.4 million deal, which seemed pretty absurd. Apparently it's a two-year, $4 million deal. That makes a lot more sense.

[wco81]

I'll believe the 2-first rounders for Deebo when it happens.

Seems like the same happy talk about Jimmy's trade returns from a few months ago.

[thesack12]

I agree with your overall thoughts on the O-line. McGlinchey is not a long term option at RT, or at least he shouldn't be. I hope he's gone after this season. If they trade Deebo, they will definitely be getting a 1st round pick. With that pick, depending on what the board looks like of course, I think they seriously need to consider going with OT there. We have to remember that the 49ers do not have a 1st rounder next year either, so they will be hard pressed to have another opportunity to bring in a high end OT prospect/McGlinchey replacement in the near future.

Regarding Banks specifically, I think the Shanahan doesn't like rookies stance is overblown. McGlinchey started all 16 games as a rookie, Aiyuk started 11 of 12 games played as a rookie, Deebo started 11 of 15 games played as a rookie, and even Pettis started 7 of 12 games played as a rookie.

While we'd all like to think its not the case, its entirely possible that Aaron Banks is just not good and will be a wasted draft pick. The simple fact that he played a grand total of 5 offensive snaps last year and was a healthy inactive for more games than he suited up, doesn't shine a encouraging light on him no matter how you want to look at it. Regardless, he has shown literally zero to indicate that he should be/can be relied upon moving forward. I'm also always weary of falling into the sunken cost fallacy. Just because they used a 2nd to draft Banks, absolutely should not prevent them hesitating on investing in OG. If Banks is trash, he's trash. That isn't me saying that they should just cut him now if he sucks, but if he does indeed suck they need to be looking into other alternatives.

Similarly to the Banks/Shanahan situation, I also am not going hang Aiyuk being in the doghouse the first part of last season entirely on Kyle. While its true Kyle is famously hard on WR's, as that was the position he played, its not like he just throws guys in the doghouse at the drop of a hat. The last WR who got put in there, did so because he wasn't getting things done and just flat out isn't a good player. Me saying that is not suggesting that I think that Brandon Aiyuk is Dante Pettis 2.0, because he's not. I'm just saying that there is a reason why Kyle decided to subtract Aiyuk from the gameplan for several weeks, and that reason probably doesn't paint Aiyuk in the best of lights. Especially considering the alternatives was Trent Sherfield and Mohamed Sanu. The good news is, that it seems to have worked itself out as we got to the midpoint of last season.

About Kittle's production. I disagree that Garoppolo was just playing checkdown to him all season. George's average depth of target last season was a career high 8.3 yards, which is a full yard more than he had in 2020 with 7.3 and he was down at 7.1 DOT in 2018. Jimmy's checkdown to George year was in 2019, where his DOT was only 5.9 yards. Coincidentally George was beasting with YAC in Mullens' year of 2018 with a career high 9.9 YAC. Last season George was only getting 6.3 YAC.

Actually Kittle/Deebo/Aiyuk all set career high DOT last season.

As mentioned Kittle improved his by a full yard going from 7.3 to 8.3
Aiyuk improved from 9.4 to 9.8
Deebo's highwater mark improved from 7.5 to 8.4.

Mullens and his receivers' numbers were buoyed by the handful of deep balls he will hit from time to time, whereas Jimmy will consistently and reliably pepper receivers in the mid range of the field game.

Regarding the weaponry overall, one thing that could really help the offense overall (and specifically Lance) is an RB with some solid receiving chops. We have yet to see Shanny believe Mitchell has that in his game. Until he shows me anything of significance, I am considering Sermon to be a mere body. Jeff Wilson is a "0kay" receiver out of the backfield, but nothing noteworthy. I mentioned it after the signing, but Perhaps McCloud can be used in a scatback type role out of the backfield. But that is probably a reach, and he will need to be able to provide some pass protection to have that type of usage which he probably is not capable of.

As for the defense, looks like I'm in the minority but I still don't trust Ambry Thomas. He surely showed some flashes late in the year, but he also was a big liability out there for the majority of time he was on the field. With him sitting out his 2020 college season, hopefully a lot of his struggles were attributed to rust and trying to get his rhythm back. So there is some optimism there, but I personally don't consider him an automatic starter. Depth at CB is thin, and we currently don't know who will be the primary slot CB. As for the pass rush, while every team can always use more juice there I just feel like with Kocurek in the fold the 9ers have a very good history of mining production out of unheralded players. Whether it be low round picks, castoffs from other teams, or low end free agents. I believe that the defense overall can scheme up a viable pass rush. Whereas last season we saw all to clearly that no amount of scheme will be able to mask the deficiencies at CB. Ward signing obviously helps, and it was nice to see this regime prioritize the CB position for once, but they still need more there.

So to get back to this, Shanahan will play rookies, but he is clearly pretty averse to it. And the OL is just different. Those guys don't rotate, you can't ease them in. Either you're the starter and playing all the snaps, or you don't see the field. Not being active at all is perhaps more of a concern, but Banks is a pure guard who doesn't have center or tackle potential, so he'd take a backseat to the swing guys. As said, I have serious doubts about Banks, but I've got to think if he was pure garbage, the FO would have tried harder to keep Tomlinson or would have found another guy. Agreed that they still need to take at least one interior OL within the first four rounds, two in the draft, and arguably an OT relatively early, too.

In terms of Aiyuk being in the doghouse, I think that had a lot more to do with attitude and approach than it did talent. Aiyuk has talent. That's plan to see when you watch him play. But from the sound of things, he was pretty immature about certain things. And I don't have a problem with a coach penalizing a guy for that to send a message. Within reason. You don't do something like that in a way that hurts the team. Don't give him the start, or ride his ass in practice. Don't punish the team. We lost games early in the year that we very arguably could/would have won if Aiyuk had seen more looks. Though interestingly, he actually did play quite a lot in those games (around 70% of offensive snaps), we just didn't target him much. Tough to say if that was the gameplan, Jimmy, or something else.

I'm admittedly a bit hazy on ADOT, but my understanding (seemingly confirmed with a little research) is that it's all targets, not receptions. So if Jimmy targets him 50 yards downfield but underthrows him by 10, that's still going into his ADOT. It's not my intention here to crap all over Jimmy, but the fact that we weren't using Kittle as effectively as we could have been isn't on Kittle IMO. He's still the same dude he has been, and is still capable of elite production. I think we didn't use Deebo nearly enough as a receiver late in the season and the postseason, too.

Agreed I'd love to add a RB with some receiving chops. That could be a huge piece for this offense, but it's not a stellar draft for that type of player.

Also agreed on Ambry Thomas. He showed some very encouraging growth, but he was also terrible when he first got out there, and he got picked on a bit in the playoffs. But he's probably the third CB as things stand now, so we're theoretically in better shape than we were last year at this time. But if we trade Deebo for #10, CB is one of the first positions I'm looking at.

I also agree that Kocurek has done a good job of getting production out of unheralded players, but that just makes me want a heralded player all that much more. And a big part of my interest in DE stems from the fact that it's super deep in this draft, so there's a pretty good chance the best player available at 61 will be a DE. A guy like Nik Bonitto, who has some Dee Ford to him, could be a really solid pick in the late second, even if he starts out purely as a situational pass rusher. We're relatively unlikely to land an impact corner at that spot, though I'd strongly consider a safety, WR, or IOL there, too. We've got plenty of holes that need filling, and we almost certainly won't get to them all in this draft, unless we trade Deebo to the Jets for 10, 35, and 38.

I hear you on Banks, and you make a solid point on them not making a move to replace Tomlinson seems to indicate that they still like Banks. However, this free agent class wasn't loaded on the interior OL, and the 9ers weren't exactly flush with available cash so I'm not sure how much they could have/wanted to do to try and replace Tomlinson in that avenue.

You're right we'll never truly know how much Aiyuk not being used early was gameplan or QB related. To that point, its worth noting that Aiyuk's targets by week were: 0,2,6,3,4,1,7,8,4,7,6,6,10,2,5,6,7. There certainly seems to be a big uptick in usage at around the half way point of the season. Also, Jimmy has the tendency to get the ball out pretty early and doesn't get past the primary couple reads very often. So it would appear that Aiyuk's early invisibility was primarily game plan/play call related. Which leads me to your point about sending a message to a player without harming the team by drastically watering down the usage of your better talent. That is a very valid point by you, my only response to that angle is we still don't really know what exactly got Aiyuk the doghouse treatment. That said, whatever it was it apparently wasn't bad enough to get him benched altogether. So who knows.

Your hypothetical example would indeed contribute to compiling average DOT, but lets be honest here you know that type of play is happening quite rarely and definitely not nearly enough to skew the numbers. One of the biggest knocks against Jimmy is he won't/can't challenge downfield.

I don't disagree that Kittle's usage hasn't been on George. I mentioned earlier that they have been using/needing him to stay in and block too often. Injuries have also been a factor. But when you bring up Kittle being a better player with Mullens we need to take note that in 2018 and Mullens at the helm, Kittle was getting 9.9 YAC. Last season with Jimmy at the helm, Kittle was only getting 6.3 YAC. That's a HUGE difference, a decline of 37% per catch. If we knock Jimmy and de-value his overall numbers via YAC, we have to do the same with Mullens. This is also where DOT comes into play. As the numbers show in my previous post, Jimmy was targeting Kittle farther downfield than Mullens was.

I also hear you, with your pass rush thoughts. We've seen what Kocurek turned Bosa into, so he could turn another very talented prospect into a quality bookend for Nick. Still, for me though the O-line is just far too worrisome for this season and beyond. Most especially considering there will be a young, very green QB under center. Then if we subtract Deebo from the equation on top of that, I just don't see how you can't go offense early and often in this draft. An old, poor pass protecting O-line and a limited supply of weapons is a terrible position for a young inexperienced QB.

[CrimsonCrew]

Niners signed Jason Verrett to a one-year deal. I'm assuming it's very incentive-driven, or just a low figure. I like the move. Our CB room is young, and we could use a vet to influence the guys. Verrett showed two years ago that he can still be excellent, he's just got to find a way to stay on the field. But if he doesn't, low risk. Maybe we cut Dontae Johnson to keep him.

[CrimsonCrew]

Just to add re: Verrett, we're taking the right approach to him this year. Expect that he doesn't even make the team, hope that he can be your #4 or #5, and then maybe he's your #1 and it's all gravy. The good news with all the injuries is that his body shouldn't have too much wear and tear on his body outside of the injuries, so his age of 31 may not be as big an issue for guys who have been through the daily grind.

Got to root for him. Every time he's been on the field, with the exception of 2019 when he seemed like he wasn't right, he has been among the best in the league. But he just keeps getting hurt. But he keeps coming back. I'd love to see him put together another really good season, for the team, of course, but also for him.

[Jikkle]

Niners signed Jason Verrett to a one-year deal. I'm assuming it's very incentive-driven, or just a low figure. I like the move. Our CB room is young, and we could use a vet to influence the guys. Verrett showed two years ago that he can still be excellent, he's just got to find a way to stay on the field. But if he doesn't, low risk. Maybe we cut Dontae Johnson to keep him.

The key is unlike last season Verrett isn't a key component to the secondary so I'm perfectly fine seeing what he's got and if he can manage to play at his 2020 level that would be fantastic as he and Ward would make for a nice pairing. If he doesn't work there are plenty of guys that can fill the spot.

I just tend to think given what we saw in 2019 compared to 2020 he probably won't offer much this season but maybe 2023 being a couple years removed he might return to form.

[Jikkle]

Now that the draft is over I do feel overall it was a good offseason.

It wasn't perfect with the Deebo and Jimmy G drama hanging over the team's head and losing Laken Tomlinson could end up hurting. Not to mention Mack's status is completely unknown and while he wasn't great last season I'd still take him over Brunskill at C.

But looking at free agency I thought we plugged some holes and bolstered some areas that have been nagging the team for the past couple of seasons.

They got a starting CB and bolstered the special teams. Getting a bonafide returner that can handle both kick and punt returns along with getting some guys considered special teams aces should bolster a bottom-tier ST unit.

Outside the RB pick in the 3rd on paper I thought the draft looked good.

I'm not a draft expert so I'm looking more at positions addressed and outside opinion but Drake Jackson could be a steal in time and was one of the biggest positions that needed addressing because we needed someone to take attention away from Bosa or capitalize on the favorable matchups that the attention Bosa gets creates.

Needed a speed deepthreat to take advantage of Lance's arm and punish defenses that overcommit to stopping the run.

I'd rather spend more premium picks on interior offensive line but they did pick up two guys that seem to have the physical potential to be good but just need to develop.

Also thought the UDFA class was pretty strong and potential is there as well.

So I do like this team better overall than last season's team and I do think it has potential to be right in the mix of things like it was last season.

[CrimsonCrew]

Interesting thought about the DE position given the addition of Jackson, return of Hyder, addition of Turay. Is Ebukam in danger of being cut or traded? They'd save $6.5 million against the cap by moving on from him.

Ebukam is a solid player, and was even showing a bit more as a pass rusher late in the year, but I don't know that he's so much better than guys who cost less than a quarter what he does. Hyder costs $1.5 million, Omenihu costs $2.5 million, Jordan Willis just over $1 million, and Turay $1.7 million. Combined with Jackson on passing downs, can we shed that fairly hefty salary?

[Bingo_AlphaMan]

Interesting thought about the DE position given the addition of Jackson, return of Hyder, addition of Turay. Is Ebukam in danger of being cut or traded? They'd save $6.5 million against the cap by moving on from him.

Ebukam is a solid player, and was even showing a bit more as a pass rusher late in the year, but I don't know that he's so much better than guys who cost less than a quarter what he does. Hyder costs $1.5 million, Omenihu costs $2.5 million, Jordan Willis just over $1 million, and Turay $1.7 million. Combined with Jackson on passing downs, can we shed that fairly hefty salary?

Trade him for a 2024 7th round pick

[CrimsonCrew]

Interesting thought about the DE position given the addition of Jackson, return of Hyder, addition of Turay. Is Ebukam in danger of being cut or traded? They'd save $6.5 million against the cap by moving on from him.

Ebukam is a solid player, and was even showing a bit more as a pass rusher late in the year, but I don't know that he's so much better than guys who cost less than a quarter what he does. Hyder costs $1.5 million, Omenihu costs $2.5 million, Jordan Willis just over $1 million, and Turay $1.7 million. Combined with Jackson on passing downs, can we shed that fairly hefty salary?

Trade him for a 2024 7th round pick

That's probably about the ballpark. Maybe a 5th? But I wouldn't hold my breath. Regardless, given our depth at the position, I just don't know that he's worth the additional money.

As anticipated, the Verrett contract is very low. Cap hit under $900K. Solid signing and hopefully he can get healthy and contribute. If not, no real change to our situation.

[CrimsonCrew]

Interesting read by PFF about the situations for second-year QBs. Fields would be #1, except he's not clearly the starter at this point.

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-grading-situations-second-year-quarterbacks-zach-wilson-trevor-lawrence-justin-fields-2022

Really took note of Fields' situation. That's brutal. That kid has legit talent IMO, but I don't know how he's supposed to make the most of it. They're setting him up for failure as things stand now. They did add a bunch of OL in the draft, but none before the fifth round. And his WRs are Darnell Mooney, a third-round pick in Velus, and a couple guys who underperformed despite excellent opportunities in their first stops.

[Jikkle]

Deebo is following the 9ers on IG again which I take as a sign that his reps and the team finally are talking serious numbers and he likes what he's hearing.

I doubt he'd follow them on IG if the situation hasn't changed so I wouldn't be surprised to hear about an extension soon. Though I'm borderline a millennial all this IG stuff is odd to me I guess it does mean something.

[Jikkle]

Read on Twitter

Well I guess we know why they resigned Verrett now.