ESPN+ NBA OffSeason Complete Guide: Minnesota Timberwolves

[UnFadeable21]

Bobby Marks

Long read, 4 pages worth but will only post 1 due to rules

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/insider/story/_/id/33785223/nba-offseason-guide-2022-next-moves-team

Looking at the big picture, the 2021-22 season was a success for the Minnesota Timberwolves. They won multiple playoff games for the first time since 2004 and their 46 regular-season wins were their second-most in the past 17 seasons.

The short-term outlook, however, will view the first-round playoff loss to the Memphis Grizzlies as a missed opportunity. The second-youngest team in the playoffs lost three games it led by double-digit points in the fourth quarter.

While we can chalk that up to inexperience, history has shown that there is no guarantee that Minnesota will be in position to advance to the second round in the future. The nucleus of this roster returns but so does a Western Conference that projects to be the strongest in recent years.

State of the roster

Roster status: Playoffs but beware of a deep Western Conference


Karl-Anthony Towns

He joined Kevin Durant as only the player to average 20 points, 50% shooting and 40% on 3-pointers in four seasons.

It is no coincidence that the last time Towns earned All-NBA honors was in 2018, the last year Minnesota reached the playoffs before 2022.

All-NBA honors could represent a financial windfall for Towns. Because he is set to reach seven years of service in July, Towns is eligible to sign a four-year, $210.9 million supermax extension if his name is on any of the three teams.

2024-25 | $47.1M

2025-26 | $50.8M

2026-27 | $54.6M

2027-28 | $58.4M

A $47.1 million cap hit in 2024-25 is significant but Minnesota is set to have cap flexibility in the 2023 offseason to retool the roster before the supermax extension of Towns and likely rookie extension of Anthony Edwards is set to begin.

In the scenario that he is not named All-NBA, Towns is extension eligible but for significantly less money: three years and $130.7 million total.


D'Angelo Russell

Russell's tenure to date in Minnesota is best described as unfinished.

The Timberwolves were plus-7.1 points per 100 possessions when both Towns and Russell were on the court.

Russell also finished the season averaging 7.1 assists, the most in his career. Per ESPN Stats & Information, he is one of three players (Tyrese Haliburton and Chris Paul) to average at least seven assists and 2.5 or fewer turnovers.

Now entering the offseason, Russell is extension eligible, and Minnesota has a decision to make. Minnesota can sign him up to a four-year extension contract that begins in 2023-24 or preserve cap flexibility in the 2023 offseason. The Timberwolves have $80 million in salary in 2023 and a small window to use room before a new contract for Towns and Anthony Edwards kicks in.

The decision with Russell this offseason will be an indicator if the Timberwolves are willing to lock up the former All-Star to a long-term contract or if there is a desire to look to add free agents in 2023.



Team needs

Depth at small and power forward

Resources to build the roster

The draft: four selections

Future first-round picks

Exceptions: $10.3M midlevel, $4.1M biannual and $4.8M trade

$50M of expiring contracts

Cash: $6.3M to send or receive in a trade

Dates to watch

JUNE 29: Jaylen Nowell and Naz Reid both have a $1.9 million team option. While it seems like a no-brainer to pick them up considering their below-average salary, picking up the option would see both players become unrestricted free agents in 2023. If the options are declined, Minnesota would tender both players a $2.2 million qualifying offer by June 29, making them restricted free agents this summer. The downside to that move is that both currently have a $2 million cap hold in 2023 and the Timberwolves could lose significant cap flexibility. The two players are also extension eligible (more on that below) if the option is exercised.

JUNE 29: Former first-round pick Josh Okogie failed to reach starter criteria (41 starts or 2,000 minutes) and will see his qualifying offer drop from $7.9 million to $5.9 million. Okogie saw his minutes sliced in half this season (20.3 to 10.5) and has played sparingly since the All-Star break. Two-way players McKinley Wright IV ($50K) and Nathan Knight ($50K) are also eligible to receive a qualifying offer.

Restrictions

Reid and Nowell cannot be traded until their team option is exercised.

Karl-Anthony Towns has a 15% trade bonus. The bonus is valued at $5 million if Towns is traded.

The draft

Minnesota has four draft selections in June, including a first and three seconds. They own their first in all future years.

Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Minnesota selecting in June:

No. 19 (own): Nikola Jovic, Mega Mozzart, SF


No. 40 (via WAS): Justin Lewis, Marquette, SF/PF


No. 48 (via CHI): Keon Ellis, Alabama, SG/SF


No. 51 (via DEN): Jalen Williams, Santa Clara, SF

[UnFadeable21]

Here is my way to build the wolves into a contender now and into the future.

Trade DLo and the 19th pick to Indiana for Malcolm Brogdon. Brogdon is 28 years old and has 3 years remaining on his contract around 20+ million per. He’s a 6’5 225lb PG who can avg 18ppg 6ast and is a two way player with high leadership qualities. DLo is an expiring but he’s set to make 32 million. The price to send an expiring contract is usually a late first.

Trade Malik Beasley 15 million to the New Orleans Pelicans for Larry Nance and Garrett Temple. Larry Nance is an expiring at 9 million but should be extended around the 8-10 million range.

He is 6’8 245lbs and plays above the rim. Nance is 29 years old and in his prime. When he got time in the playoffs for the Pelicans he was getting 15 pts and 13 rebs. Obviously those numbers aren’t realistic but he adds significant strength, rebounding and finishing ability next to KAT while also being a threat to hit the corner 3. Garrett Temple is a salary filler throw in for one season. His second year isn’t guaranteed and can be voided freeing up 5 million.

I would decline Nowell’s option and let him hit RFA. See what his value is. He shouldn’t be anywhere as high as Beasley got 15 per. But should be able to replace his role as a spark plug off the bench. I would accept Naz team option. Resign Taurean Prince around 6-7 million.

Brogdon 6’5
Ant 6’5
Jaden 6’10
Nance jr 6’8
KAT 7ft

That’s gives you a starting 5 who all 5 players are two way capable and can switch. It gives you size, strength, and scoring ability as well as defense. Team is young but also has 3 vets on the starting unit who are all in their prime.

Pat Bev
Nowell
Prince
Vando
Naz

Jmac
Temple
Bolmaro

Gives you a 13 man guaranteed contracts roster along with the 3 second round picks.

[Magoose]

Nice writeup. I would agree with most parts.

As I have posted in the DLO thread I think this is what we need to address in the offseason:

- On the court leadership
- Veteran presence
- Ballhandling
- Upgrade on defense at 1
- A reliable 3rd banana to KAT/ANT
- CAP flexibility
- Upgrade offensively at 4
- More size/presence at the 5

Step 1:
At the PG position I would also try to trade DLO. I've never been a fan of his and I hated giving up a lottery pick for him. While he kind of surprised me during the regular season where he played better than expected I still think that 31 per year is way too much for what he provides.
In a trade I would be looking for veteran presence, ballhandling, a 3rd scoring option, leadership and an upgrade on the defensive end. Also some cap flexibility would be nice and someone who is able to play on and off the ball.
So Brogdon is (while injury prone) almost the perfect fit next to ANT. I think I would give up our FRP for him and maybe a SRP or Bolmaro but not much more. This would be definitely a gamble and not sure IND would be interested in it.
Another, less preferred option would be Conley.

Step 2:
At PF we need to punish other teams for doubling KAT. V8 unfortunately is a strong rebounder and good defender but lightyears away from being more than a dunker on the offensive end. KAT simply needs space to operate.
While I like Nance (was surprised to see that he's only 6-7 though) I would like us to go after Maxi Kleber if the asking price is right. Since that is quite unlikely I'd take a long hard look at Jalen Smith, maybe even include him in a S&T with Brogdon in a DLO trade. While he isn't the rebounder and hustler Vando is he would at least be able to knockdown open threes on a good clip and block or deflect a shot here and there.

Step 3:
We need size at the 5 against the big centers. I would try to sign Isiah Hartenstein who provides what we need and has shown a lot of signs of improvement lately.

Step 4:
Resign Taurean Prince for 1-2 years. He played very well for us in the second part of the season and was a constant contributor. He also provides flexibility and veteran presence.

Step 5:
Do not extend Okogie or Layman

Step 6:
Pick up team option for Naz Reid which makes him UFA after the season. He is a cheap KAT replacement when he is in foul trouble, however he had a rough season so I don't think we should decline his team option.

Step 7:
I'm on the fence regarding Nowell. I think I would as well decline his option and let him hit RFA. Chances are, we can resign him as a cheap spark plug of the bench.

That would leave us with:

Brogdon/PatBev/JMc
Ant/Beasley/Nowell
Jaden/Taurean
Smith/Vando
KAT/Reid/Hartenstein

With an additional year under their belt and Brogdon we would have more leadership and veteran presence then before. Also the team is more balanced than it was before. The roster can be rounded out (especially at SF) using the SRP.

[Note30]

I kinda want to see a big splashy move at the G position.

Lillard, Murray, Mitchell

I don't want to lose Ant, KAT, or Jaden, everything else is on the table.

[UnFadeable21]

I kinda want to see a big splashy move at the G position.

Lillard, Murray, Mitchell

I don't want to lose Ant, KAT, or Jaden, everything else is on the table.

Dame ain’t happening

Murray is the spurs best young piece

Mitchell ain’t happening

[Note30]

I kinda want to see a big splashy move at the G position.

Lillard, Murray, Mitchell

I don't want to lose Ant, KAT, or Jaden, everything else is on the table.

Dame ain’t happening

Murray is the spurs best young piece

Mitchell ain’t happening

Chip ain't happening.

[shangrila]

Just to point out seperately, I've found that I can read all of the Insider/ESPN+/whatever stuff on my phone despite not having an account. I don't know why but if you want to read that stuff (like all the draft stuff that's behind a paywall) try opening it on your phone.

EDIT: In regards to the article, it's a prime reason why I hate ESPN paywalling this stuff. This isn't a "guide", it's a scenario. All Marks does is present the facts without making any sort of recommendation (beyond regurgitating their draft coverage, which itself is pointless now since team needs aren't taken into consideration. I mean, does anyone actually expect us to the FOUR small forwards?). I can find this out for free reading Canis or Zone Coverage or, hell, just coming here. And that applies to every single team they've done these articles for.