With Jalen Brunson cratering against the Suns, the Mavs look finished

[HotRocks34]

After a strong performance against the Utah Jazz in Round 1 of the playoffs, Dallas Mavericks #2 option Jalen Brunson is experiencing pronounced struggles against the Phoenix Suns and their long, athletic defense.

Here are the statistics. "Game Score" is an efficiency metric. Higher positive number is better.

Brunson versus Jazz
27/4/4 on 48/36/084 with 31.5% Usage.................21.0 Game Score

Brunson versus Suns (through 2 games)
11/4/2 on 32/25/100 with 26.4% Usage.................04.1 Game Score


To underscore how much Brunson is struggling, we can compare his statistics with Phoenix's #2 option, Chris Paul. The two players have nearly identical usage rates through the first two contests.

Paul versus Mavs (through 2 games)
23/5/5 on 62/42/100 with 26.0% Usage................20.8 Game Score


Suffice it to say, Brunson (and many Mavs) is struggling badly against Phoenix's superior defense. We're not in Utah any longer. The Suns have five players averaging a double-digit Game Score, whereas the Mavs have just two (Luka, Kleber).

In fact, of the Mavs' top 7 players in minutes for the Suns series, only two of them (Luka, Kleber) have a better Game Score in the Suns series than they had in the Jazz series.

Brunson's and the rest of the Mavs' (not named Luka or Kleber) difficulties led Jason Kidd to say this following the Game 2 defeat:

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/33859096/jason-kidd-says-mavericks-need-players-besides-luka-doncic-step-dallas-2-0-hole-phoenix-suns

"(Luka) had a great game, but no one else showed (up)," Kidd said. "We've got to get other guys shooting the ball better."

Brunson is shooting 32% for the series. Dallas' #3 option Spencer Dinwiddie is shooting 33% for the series. Kidd called out both by name following the Game 2 defeat.

Brunson's struggles have also led to attacks by the Dallas press, such as this one:

https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/mavericks/2022/05/05/mavericks-are-fading-fast-and-jalen-brunson-is-nowhere-to-be-found-vs-suns/

Luka Doncic needs some help. I mean 80 points in two nights is not a bad effort, but the Dallas Mavericks are flying home trailing this series 2-0 because they are short one sidekick for their best player.

That reminds me. Whatever happened to Jalen Brunson?

(snip)

He is somewhere between a non-factor and a negative. And that’s stunning.

To make matters worse for the Mavs, Luka is playing with a thigh bruise he apparently suffered in Game 1 against the Suns. Here is Luka from practice on the day before Game 2:

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With Brunson and the rest of the Mavs not named Luka and Kleber struggling so greatly, can Dallas turn things around and make this a series?

Very doubtful. Thigh bruises don't tend to heal quickly, and even if Luka were 100% the Mavs are simply overpowered against a 64-18 Phoenix team that is just better than they are.

Luka's 40/8/7 on 53/42/78 isn't enough. As I mentioned in another thread, it recalls Jordan's 43/6/5 against Boston in 1986. Jordan shined, the Bulls got swept, and Boston went on to win the chip.

You just have to tip your cap to the better team. In my opinion, the Suns playing like this can only be stopped by a full-strength Bucks squad that can work to exploit their (Milwaukee's) size advantage against Phoenix. And even that may not be enough as this year's Suns have McGee and Biyombo, unlike last year.

Phoenix is the current Vegas title favorite for a reason. The Mavs aren't stopping them (given current health levels for both teams; provided Phoenix stays healthy). The only question left is how many games will the series go.

I think it's over in 4.

Brunson, Dinwiddie and the rest of the Mavs will learn from this experience. Jordan went three years beating his head against the Bad Boys' wall before he broke through. But those battles helped forge the MJ we saw winning 6 titles in the years to follow.

I'm a Mavs fan. I'm not mad, surprised or disappointed. To be honest, I'm actually happy that the Mavs are struggling some. Struggle leads to growth.

[PhilBlackson]

It's amazing what the rhythm of actually getting the ball sometimes can do to a player.

[Mister Ze]

Suns remind me of the Lakers in ‘09 and the Heat in ‘11; both teams lost in the finals and then proceeded to win the year after.

[cjx]

Brunson got something for CP3 and the Suns in game 3, he droppin' 38 pts for the haters, book it!

[Dirkules]

Lets see who's first to come in here and say that it's not because Brunson and Dinwiddie had an easy time against the Jazz' defense as opposed to the Suns, it's because Dallas is better without Luka.

[BenoUdrihFTL]

It's amazing what the rhythm of actually getting the ball sometimes can do to a player.

26.4% usage is pretty substantial for a guy like Brunson. I mean it's about where Jimmy Butler was during the RS. Brunson himself was at 21.9% during the RS

[HotRocks34]

It's amazing what the rhythm of actually getting the ball sometimes can do to a player.

It's not about that. It's about Phoenix's defense as compared with Utah's. As pointed out in the article cited that called out Brunson:

https://www.dallasnews.com/sports/mavericks/2022/05/05/mavericks-are-fading-fast-and-jalen-brunson-is-nowhere-to-be-found-vs-suns/

Perhaps because Utah’s Mike Conley has been such a nice guy during his 15-year career, we were reluctant to state the obvious, that in the opening round Brunson was playing against a man who was way beyond his prime and had no chance to compete with Brunson at either end of the floor. Regardless, the Suns have plenty of folks who can do exactly that. Booker, while scoring 30 points, seems to particularly enjoy it when he is assigned to slow down Brunson and hound him at the Mavs’ end of the floor.

Simply put, Phoenix's perimeter defense is levels above Utah's. And Brunson is feeling the strain.

Chris Paul and Brunson have taken about the same number of shots in the series (29 Paul vs 28 Brunson). They have nearly identical Usage Rates. Paul is averaging 23 points and Brunson 11.

No excuses for Brunson. Kidd knows that, which is why he called him out.

Brunson simply has to play better, as do the other non-Luka and non-Kleber Mavs. But it's likely not going to happen this year., They're not ready.

As I said in another thread, this is like Trae vs the Cavs as compared with Trae vs the Heat. Like Trae, Brunson is small and can be taken out with a long, athletic, good defense. Actually, the Cavs was one game so let's instead compare Trae 2021 against the Knicks in the first round. The Knicks had the third best DRTG last year.

Trae vs Knicks 2021
29/2/9 on 44/34/91 with 22.4 Game Score

Trae vs Heat 2022
15/5/6 on 31/18/78 with 06.4 Game Score


Trae wasn't ready for the Heat's defense and Brunson is not ready for the Suns' defense. Whatever Luka did or did not do, Brunson was going to get bottled up against Phoenix. They match up very well against him.

It's not a shock. And again, as a Mavs fan, I'm actually happy. This will force Brunson and the rest of the team (including Luka) to improve.

[alebaba]

Luka needs to lower his usage, this dude literally has the ball in his hand 24/7. The Mavs without Luka actually play team ball instead of standing behind the three point line waiting for Luka to dish it to them.

[KembaWalker]

Doesn't really matter what Brunson does or doesn't do if the Suns are going to score 1.8 points per possession when Luka is switched onto the ball handler dozens of times per game.

This is very much an unneeded Luka defense force topic that is trying to deflect from what literally everyone saw was the problem

[HotRocks34]

It's amazing what the rhythm of actually getting the ball sometimes can do to a player.

26.4% usage is pretty substantial for a guy like Brunson. I mean it's about where Jimmy Butler was during the RS. Brunson himself was at 21.9% during the RS

Yep.

Kidd is not a guy to mince words. If he thought Luka was playing the wrong way and hogging the ball (not letting Dinwiddie and Brunson get theirs), he'd say it.

That's not what's happening. Brunson and Dinwiddie (and others, like Finney-Smith) are having a tough time. And that's essentially what Kidd said after the game last night.

[HotRocks34]

Luka needs to lower his usage, this dude literally has the ball in his hand 24/7. The Mavs without Luka actually play team ball instead of standing behind the three point line waiting for Luka to dish it to them.

The more the Mavs "others" struggle, the more Luka has to try to take over.

So if Brunson shoots 32% and Dinwiddie shoots 33% for the series (and Luka is shooting 53%), then Luka is going to feel like he has to do more, not less.

Simply put, if the other guys were doing a better job then Luka could be used less. But they are not doing better, and so Luka is likely going to try to take over more.

Kidd knows it better than anyone and called it out after Game 2. Other guys must play better, and then Luka can back off. But if that doesn't happen, and guys don't play well, then you're likely to keep seeing 42% usage.

The Suns are a powerhouse. There's only so much the Mavs can do. Again, as said, Jordan 1986. It is what it is. Good job Suns, on to the next.

Also, the more Luka has to do on offense, the more fatigued he will be. And the more the Suns will be able to attack him on defense. And he has a bad wheel, to boot.

I'm actually happy about all of this, including Luka being attacked. This will help the team in the long run.

[HotRocks34]

Suns remind me of the Lakers in ‘09 and the Heat in ‘11; both teams lost in the finals and then proceeded to win the year after.

Agreed. The Suns are primed and ready for a serious title push. The Mavs are noobs that can't hang yet.

No shame. Just learn from it.

[bstein14]

Lets see who's first to come in here and say that it's not because Brunson and Dinwiddie had an easy time against the Jazz' defense as opposed to the Suns, it's because Dallas is better without Luka.

Dallas's overall ball movement is better without Luka much of the time. Luka does a lot of dribbling and then passes out to teammates often times with the clock running out which puts them in a position where they have to shoot it.

Don't get me wrong, Luka is good at creating for his teammates, its just that often times its easier to defend a guy like Luka because you know what he's doing and where he is trying to go with it... and its often more difficult to defend a team that is moving the ball around a ton and the scoring could come from multiple options.


On the other side of the ball, Paul kept intentionally creating Dallas switches to get Luka one on one and go at him and he was very successful in doing so.

[HotRocks34]

One other note on Brunson. He has a team-worst 83 ORTG in the series. The only other Mavs player sub-100 is Powell at 99.

Brunson's ORTG/DRTG is 83/133 or -50. Against the Jazz he was 122/111 for +11.

For comparison's sake, Luka is 120/132 or -12. Luka was 110/94 against ther Jazz for +16.

Dinwiddie is 110/133 in this series through 2 games. His Game Score is 7.0

The current Mavs team average DRTG is 132.7 against the Suns.

[dirkdiggler4177]

It's amazing what the rhythm of actually getting the ball sometimes can do to a player.

Jalen Brunson scores 5 more points when Luka was out this season, averaging 20ppg. What you saw against the Jazz was the best he has ever played. It's not what he plays like on regular bases.


I guess the Suns saved Cuban about 20 millions on Brunson.

[Castle Black]

Not sure why people are acting so shocked that the best/most dominant regular season team this year is beating up on a Mavs team with not much talent. This was always what was going to happen with a healthy PHX team.

[Castle Black]

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[HotRocks34]

Not sure why people are acting so shocked that the best/most dominant regular season team this year is beating up on a Mavs team with not much talent. This was always what was going to happen with a healthy PHX team.

Correct.

No surprises here and no disappointment.

I hope the Mavs can take a game but I'm doubtful, especially with the Luka thigh bruise.

The Suns are the league's juggernaut, along with (maybe) a fully-healthy Dubs.

The Mavs aren't close to that level.

That's how it goes.

[HotRocks34]

Good news for Mavs fans. Brunson sounds like he's ready for Game 3.

https://www.mavs.com/brunson-tipoff-feature/

“I just go back to the drawing board and think about what I did and adjust. We’ve been able to bounce back more times than not after a loss. We know what we have to do.”

(snip)

“I got to be better no matter what the situation is,” Brunson said. “In situations where I know I can effective, I need to be. So it’s up to me to get myself going.”

Good sign. Brunson is a tough, proud guy and here's hoping he breaks out of his funk in Game 3. Win or lose.

[HotRocks34]

Lets see who's first to come in here and say that it's not because Brunson and Dinwiddie had an easy time against the Jazz' defense as opposed to the Suns, it's because Dallas is better without Luka.

I haven't seen anyone who covers the Mavs saying this. Here's another example of how the Dallas press is covering things. This is Dallas sports radio talking about Brunson after Game 2. Bit harsh; they are saying Brunson is overhyped and not really a #2 option.

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