2022 NBA Draft Part II

[Hal14]

Genuinely curious what makes AJ Griffin a better prospect than Jalen Williams? Is there anything Griffin does better on a basketball court than Williams? Or is Griffin's only edge that he's younger.

Jalen is a better defender and a far better passer..

AJG is a significantly better shooter, he is bigger, he is better on the boards and IMO he is going to be a beter passer. Compare AJG to Jalen Williams at the same age and the question answers itself.

Significantly better shooter, how? Both shot a very high % this season from 3. Jalen had higher FT%. Griffin has awkwardly wide base on his shot and gets no lift on his shot which makes you question whether it's projectable at the next level.

Griffin had higher 3 pt % but he also played on a team with a bunch of stars and guys like paolo who demand a ton of defensive attention which means a much higher % of griffin's looks were wide open. Jalen played with no other elite scorers/shooters/creators. Jalen was the whole offense yet he still shot a high %.

Griffin had a slightly higher rebounding % but he also played more as a SF/PF whereas jalen on his team was used as a PG/SG so obviously a SF/PF is gonna be closer to the basket for rebounds. Rebounding isn't exactly highest on the list of things NBA teams are looking for in a wing prospect anyways.

Griffin is younger obviously (as I said) I'm just not sure if him being younger is enough to outweigh the advantage Jalen has in terms of defense and passing. And I feel like while griffin is younger, because of his injury history and lack of athleticism I'm not sure how much better he can really get - I think he's pretty close to his ceiling already - while jalen is a late bloomer - you look at his stats (especially BPM and PER which took a big jump this past season) and clearly he is a guy who really got in the gym and worked his but off this past offseason so he could still be scratching the surface of his potential).

Griffin being "bigger" also limits his upside to some extent. If he wasn't as strong physically you could say "he'll be even BETTER once as he adds strength over the next couple years and then his numbers will go up even more" but you can't say that with griffin, he's already as strong as he can be. And also, the other players in the draft class who aren't as strong (like branham, terry, daniels, jalen williams) can catch up to griffin or even pass him as they get stronger physically.

[SelfishPlayer]

Chet Holmgren probably is the most talented player in the draft, but Jaden Ivey and Bennedict Mathurin offer the best combination of risk reward to me especially considering how perimeter oriented the game is. The more you can do from the perimeter the better. I don't see any way those two guys don't become high level players and valuable trade assets.

[Chi town]

If Sochan is really 6'9 230lbs he might be the best switching C in the draft. I wouldnt use him there full time during the RS, but he becomes a tremendous defensive piece in the playoffs as a switchable smaller C.

For comparison, Looney is 6'9 222lbs according to the web.

I think Jeremy is getting overlooked as a small ball death-lineup type C.

Completely agree.

[clyde21]

If Sochan is really 6'9 230lbs he might be the best switching C in the draft. I wouldnt use him there full time during the RS, but he becomes a tremendous defensive piece in the playoffs as a switchable smaller C.

For comparison, Looney is 6'9 222lbs according to the web.

I think Jeremy is getting overlooked as a small ball death-lineup type C.

i don't think he's being overlooked at all in that department, that's why he's ranked top25 by most people. it certainly isn't his scoring or shooting.

[MemphisX]

Genuinely curious what makes AJ Griffin a better prospect than Jalen Williams? Is there anything Griffin does better on a basketball court than Williams? Or is Griffin's only edge that he's younger.

Jalen is a better defender and a far better passer..

AJG is a significantly better shooter, he is bigger, he is better on the boards and IMO he is going to be a better passer. Compare AJG to Jalen Williams at the same age and the question answers itself.

Significantly better shooter, how? Both shot a very high % this season from 3. Jalen had higher FT%. Griffin has awkwardly wide base on his shot and gets no lift on his shot which makes you question whether it's projectable at the next level.

Griffin had higher 3 pt % but he also played on a team with a bunch of stars and guys like paolo who demand a ton of defensive attention which means a much higher % of griffin's looks were wide open. Jalen played with no other elite scorers/shooters/creators. Jalen was the whole offense yet he still shot a high %.

Griffin had a slightly higher rebounding % but he also played more as a SF/PF whereas jalen on his team was used as a PG/SG so obviously a SF/PF is gonna be closer to the basket for rebounds.

Griffin is younger obviously (as I said) I'm just not sure if him being younger is enough to outweigh the advantage Jalen has in terms of defense and passing. And I feel like while griffin is younger, because of his injury history and lack of athleticism I'm not sure how much better he can really get - I think he's pretty close to his ceiling already - while jalen is a late bloomer - you look at his stats (especially BPM and PER which took a big jump this past season) and clearly he is a guy who really got in the gym and worked his but off this past offseason so he could still be scratching the surface of his potential).

Griffin being "bigger" also limits his upside to some extent. If he wasn't as strong physically you could say "he'll be even BETTER once as he adds strength over the next couple years and then his numbers will go up even more" but you can't say that with griffin, he's already as strong as he can be. And also, the other players in the draft class who aren't as strong (like branham, terry, daniels, jalen williams) can catch up to griffin or even pass him as they get stronger physically.

I mean if you feel Williams is an equal or better prospect to Griffin that is fine but do not act as if there is not multiple reasons why Griffin is projected as a better almost universally. If Jalen WIlliams turns out to be a better NBA player, it will likely be due to outlier reasons (unforeseen development or injury).

[shangrila]

I'll agree that Griffin looks overrated. If you don't buy his shot, which I agree with Hal that I don't, he doesn't have anything else going for him.

[TB]

Wow lots of Sochan answers. Glad I asked, I didn't realize he was that big.

[BlazersBroncos]

I'll agree that Griffin looks overrated. If you don't buy his shot, which I agree with Hal that I don't, he doesn't have anything else going for him.

I 100% agree. I dont buy his shot and once that is off the table he is meh at best across the board.

Not a great defender, not a great athlete outside vertical explosion (IE lateral, quickness, etc), doesnt see the floor that well, not a stand out rebounder for his position, not super quick to process on either end, doesnt draw fouls that well, etc.

The class lacks true SF so he is getting overrated because he looks like Tarzan (Even though only 6'6). But I take Dyson, Sochan, Mathurian, Eason over him. I think he is in the same tier as a Kendall Brown.

[MemphisX]

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[Fat]

Maybe an unpopular opinion but I feel banchero should go #1

[MemphisX]

I'll agree that Griffin looks overrated. If you don't buy his shot, which I agree with Hal that I don't, he doesn't have anything else going for him.

I 100% agree. I dont buy his shot and once that is off the table he is meh at best across the board.

Not a great defender, not a great athlete outside vertical explosion (IE lateral, quickness, etc), doesnt see the floor that well, not a stand out rebounder for his position, not super quick to process on either end, doesnt draw fouls that well, etc.

The class lacks true SF so he is getting overrated because he looks like Tarzan (Even though only 6'6). But I take Dyson, Sochan, Mathurian, Eason over him. I think he is in the same tier as a Kendall Brown.

I think it is wild to say you don't buy his shot.

[jezzerinho]

Watch on YouTube

[shangrila]

I'll agree that Griffin looks overrated. If you don't buy his shot, which I agree with Hal that I don't, he doesn't have anything else going for him.

I 100% agree. I dont buy his shot and once that is off the table he is meh at best across the board.

Not a great defender, not a great athlete outside vertical explosion (IE lateral, quickness, etc), doesnt see the floor that well, not a stand out rebounder for his position, not super quick to process on either end, doesnt draw fouls that well, etc.

The class lacks true SF so he is getting overrated because he looks like Tarzan (Even though only 6'6). But I take Dyson, Sochan, Mathurian, Eason over him. I think he is in the same tier as a Kendall Brown.

I think it is wild to say you don't buy his shot.

His form is weird to say the least, so while the %s are there I'm still not sure it translates.

And honestly, even if it does translate...what else is he giving you? He doesn't generate offence for himself or others. His steal and block rates are low so his defensive impact is theoretical at best and his rebounding numbers are fairly average for a guy his size/weight. So if he's Duncan Robinson, Joe Harris or Malik Beasley...sure, that's got value. But are you drafting them in the top 10?

[SelfishPlayer]

Maybe an unpopular opinion but I feel banchero should go #1

It's not unpopular. I don't think a guy with his physical package should be selected first overall. He may be a legit 6'10" but his arm length is normal and so is his athleticism. EJ Liddell a shorter PF blocked Banchero's turn around jump shot. That play backed up what I suspected could be a problem for him in the NBA.

[MemphisX]

I 100% agree. I dont buy his shot and once that is off the table he is meh at best across the board.

Not a great defender, not a great athlete outside vertical explosion (IE lateral, quickness, etc), doesnt see the floor that well, not a stand out rebounder for his position, not super quick to process on either end, doesnt draw fouls that well, etc.

The class lacks true SF so he is getting overrated because he looks like Tarzan (Even though only 6'6). But I take Dyson, Sochan, Mathurian, Eason over him. I think he is in the same tier as a Kendall Brown.

I think it is wild to say you don't buy his shot.

His form is weird to say the least, so while the %s are there I'm still not sure it translates.

And honestly, even if it does translate...what else is he giving you? He doesn't generate offence for himself or others. His steal and block rates are low so his defensive impact is theoretical at best and his rebounding numbers are fairly average for a guy his size/weight. So if he's Duncan Robinson, Joe Harris or Malik Beasley...sure, that's got value. But are you drafting them in the top 10?

With AJ Griffin, it is up to you. If you want to start and end your evaluation on what he did at Duke, I think you will miss a very good prospect. For me, his priors matter. Also, the context of his Duke run matters. Dude was coming off an injury, started slow on a team that was good. He had to fit in and found a role to fit into that team. As the season moved along, his role increased but there was only so much it could increase on a team with established roles and success.

So to me, the most important thing for Griffin is his medicals. He played heavy at Duke and I am sure that hurt his athleticism. He is definitely a lesser prospect if his athleticism does not return but his size is ideal. So that alone puts him above the players you listed.

[Repeat 3-peat]

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Thoughts on LaRavia? Skilled forwards thrive in todays league.

[SelfishPlayer]

High school production is overrated. Look how many NBA draft prospects are underrated entering college because they carried a low high school ranking. By the end of their college freshman season they proved that they may have simply been overlooked. When it works the other way, and a player looks overrated exiting his college freshman season, it's probably best to believe his college productivity/tape over his high school career.

[MemphisX]

I'll agree that Griffin looks overrated. If you don't buy his shot, which I agree with Hal that I don't, he doesn't have anything else going for him.

I 100% agree. I dont buy his shot and once that is off the table he is meh at best across the board.

Not a great defender, not a great athlete outside vertical explosion (IE lateral, quickness, etc), doesnt see the floor that well, not a stand out rebounder for his position, not super quick to process on either end, doesnt draw fouls that well, etc.

The class lacks true SF so he is getting overrated because he looks like Tarzan (Even though only 6'6). But I take Dyson, Sochan, Mathurian, Eason over him. I think he is in the same tier as a Kendall Brown.

I think it is wild to say you don't buy his shot.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/17TPosSAcahgwU6OgkGByBVKrmON6Sw5mVbHy5M5ruOA/edit

The Discourse around AJG’s shooting is a great little microcosm of the shooting landscape. In talking to people for this piece, I have been told the form is solid, mediocre, flawed, fine, ****** and irrelevant. The route to the conclusions made are way more interesting to me than the actual diagnosis, bc, as you may have inferred - AJ shot the everloving hell out of the ball at Duke & it can be hard to reconcile the first principles of shooting with Griffin’s output. A theme that I heard repeatedly was the uncanniness of Griffin’s shots - it just doesn’t look like the historically great shooters of the past, his role doesn’t generate otherworldly gravity, the stiltedness of his movements was out of lockstep with the results. There have been funky shooters in the past where tinkering would have to be done for better translation, but this felt different in a fun way. Before we get ahead of ourselves with the jumper diagnostics, let’s test the premise of the piece - was AJ Griffin really a pantheon prospect shooter as a freshman?

Well.

99th %ile in the halfcourt (1.2 PPP)
98th %ile for all offensive possessions (1.18 PPP)
97th %ile on jumpers (1.27 PPP, 169 poss)
96th %ile on 3s (1.34 PPP, 137 poss)
95th %ile on CNS (1.37 PPP, 105 poss)
95th %ile on OTD (1.13 PPP, 64 poss)
93rd %ile on CNS unguarded (1.54 PPP, 43 poss)
89th %ile on CNS guarded (1.24 PPP, 62 poss)
88th %ile around the basket (1.37 PPP, 57poss)

"not buying" Griffin's shooting has to be one of the wilder takes about a prospect.

[shangrila]

I think it is wild to say you don't buy his shot.

His form is weird to say the least, so while the %s are there I'm still not sure it translates.

And honestly, even if it does translate...what else is he giving you? He doesn't generate offence for himself or others. His steal and block rates are low so his defensive impact is theoretical at best and his rebounding numbers are fairly average for a guy his size/weight. So if he's Duncan Robinson, Joe Harris or Malik Beasley...sure, that's got value. But are you drafting them in the top 10?

With AJ Griffin, it is up to you. If you want to start and end your evaluation on what he did at Duke, I think you will miss a very good prospect. For me, his priors matter. Also, the context of his Duke run matters. Dude was coming off an injury, started slow on a team that was good. He had to fit in and found a role to fit into that team. As the season moved along, his role increased but there was only so much it could increase on a team with established roles and success.

So to me, the most important thing for Griffin is his medicals. He played heavy at Duke and I am sure that hurt his athleticism. He is definitely a lesser prospect if his athleticism does not return but his size is ideal. So that alone puts him above the players you listed.

Normally I'd agree but the injuries force me to view him more as he is since it seems, unfortunately, that a lot of that athleticism is gone. Now, could it return? Maybe and that would definitely change some things but I'm not going to bet on a guy's athleticism after 2 major knee injuries.

As far as "size", whether you're talking about weight or wingspan, I think it's all irrelevant if it doesn't translate. And the main concern for me with Griffin is on the defensive end, where his reduced athleticism hurt him but just his IQ on that side felt poor to me when I watched him. And it shows in the numbers. So if he's not good on that end he needs to make up for it on the other end which, sure, maybe he was just fitting in and that's why his FTArate is in the toilet but, again, after the injuries I need to base projections on what I saw this year. And this year I saw a guy with a funky looking shot who couldn't really beat people off the dribble or create for others.

That's why I made my comparison. It's not necessarily a physical one (all 3 of those guys are wildly different in that respect) but in terms of role/impact. If he's a one-way shooter, how valuable is that? At what point do you draft someone like that? 1st round, for sure, but where exactly?

[shangrila]

I 100% agree. I dont buy his shot and once that is off the table he is meh at best across the board.

Not a great defender, not a great athlete outside vertical explosion (IE lateral, quickness, etc), doesnt see the floor that well, not a stand out rebounder for his position, not super quick to process on either end, doesnt draw fouls that well, etc.

The class lacks true SF so he is getting overrated because he looks like Tarzan (Even though only 6'6). But I take Dyson, Sochan, Mathurian, Eason over him. I think he is in the same tier as a Kendall Brown.

I think it is wild to say you don't buy his shot.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/17TPosSAcahgwU6OgkGByBVKrmON6Sw5mVbHy5M5ruOA/edit

The Discourse around AJG’s shooting is a great little microcosm of the shooting landscape. In talking to people for this piece, I have been told the form is solid, mediocre, flawed, fine, ****** and irrelevant. The route to the conclusions made are way more interesting to me than the actual diagnosis, bc, as you may have inferred - AJ shot the everloving hell out of the ball at Duke & it can be hard to reconcile the first principles of shooting with Griffin’s output. A theme that I heard repeatedly was the uncanniness of Griffin’s shots - it just doesn’t look like the historically great shooters of the past, his role doesn’t generate otherworldly gravity, the stiltedness of his movements was out of lockstep with the results. There have been funky shooters in the past where tinkering would have to be done for better translation, but this felt different in a fun way. Before we get ahead of ourselves with the jumper diagnostics, let’s test the premise of the piece - was AJ Griffin really a pantheon prospect shooter as a freshman?

Well.

99th %ile in the halfcourt (1.2 PPP)
98th %ile for all offensive possessions (1.18 PPP)
97th %ile on jumpers (1.27 PPP, 169 poss)
96th %ile on 3s (1.34 PPP, 137 poss)
95th %ile on CNS (1.37 PPP, 105 poss)
95th %ile on OTD (1.13 PPP, 64 poss)
93rd %ile on CNS unguarded (1.54 PPP, 43 poss)
89th %ile on CNS guarded (1.24 PPP, 62 poss)
88th %ile around the basket (1.37 PPP, 57poss)

"not buying" Griffin's shooting has to be one of the wilder takes about a prospect.

I know it bucks conventional wisdom. In years prior I'd have been making these same arguments myself. But I've seen elite statistical college shooters struggle in the pros enough times now that I can't just blindly follow the stats.