Is Jordan Poole due for a drop-off?

Ein Sof · Post #1 » by **Ein Sof** » Mon May 9, 2022 2:55 pm

Regular season:

19 ppg on 60% TS

Playoffs:

23 ppg on 71% TS (26 on 70% TS so far in 2nd round)

Is he due for a regression towards the mean, and how will the Warriors adjust if he is?

HabsAndDubs · Post #2 » by **HabsAndDubs** » Mon May 9, 2022 3:03 pm

No one knows his mean because he’s improved throughout the season. The work he’s put in and the way he’s developped as a player over the last few years tell me he’s going to be a lot closer to the player he was over the last 30 games than he was during the first 50.

Godymas · Post #3 » by **Godymas** » Mon May 9, 2022 3:09 pm

nope, this is a continuation of his play from march

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/jordan-poole-stats-in-march-2022

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/jordan-poole-true-shooting-in-march-2022

CS707 · Post #4 » by **CS707** » Mon May 9, 2022 3:10 pm

He's going to have off days, sure, but one thing he has to offset bad shooting nights is the ability to get to the rim so that will be the adjustment.

Bornstellar · Post #5 » by **Bornstellar** » Mon May 9, 2022 3:12 pm

Of course he is. Guarantee that dude isnt going post a 70 TS% for the entire playoffs

GeorgeSears · Post #6 » by **GeorgeSears** » Mon May 9, 2022 3:14 pm

There was a stretch against the Nuggets where he looked like an average role player... that lasted about two games.

Ein Sof · Post #7 » by **Ein Sof** » Mon May 9, 2022 3:15 pm

HabsAndDubs wrote:No one knows his mean because he’s improved throughout the season. The work he’s put in and the way he’s developped as a player over the last few years tell me he’s going to be a lot closer to the player he was over the last 30 games than he was during the first 50.

Godymas wrote:nope, this is a continuation of his play from march

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/jordan-poole-stats-in-march-2022

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/jordan-poole-true-shooting-in-march-2022

I see. So Stephen Curry is once again on the most stacked team in the league. Thank y'all for the answers :nod:

BadWolf · Post #8 » by **BadWolf** » Mon May 9, 2022 3:15 pm

He has yet to meet any defense in the playoffs.

Onus · Post #9 » by **Onus** » Mon May 9, 2022 3:38 pm

Ein Sof wrote:
HabsAndDubs wrote:No one knows his mean because he’s improved throughout the season. The work he’s put in and the way he’s developped as a player over the last few years tell me he’s going to be a lot closer to the player he was over the last 30 games than he was during the first 50.

Godymas wrote:nope, this is a continuation of his play from march

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/jordan-poole-stats-in-march-2022

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/jordan-poole-true-shooting-in-march-2022

I see. So Stephen Curry is once again on the most stacked team in the league. Thank y'all for the answers

It’s so weird how curry is always on the most stacked team in the league. It’s almost as if curry has something to do with it.

Castle Black · Post #10 » by **Castle Black** » Mon May 9, 2022 3:39 pm

Probably won’t continue to shoot 71% TS%, but he gets a ton of open looks because he’s surrounded by shooters. And he’s a great shooter himself. So as long as he keeps getting looks, he’s gonna knock ‘em down at a high clip.

Onus · Post #11 » by **Onus** » Mon May 9, 2022 3:40 pm

GeorgeSears wrote:There was a stretch against the Nuggets where he looked like an average role player... that lasted about two games.

The last 2 games of the Denver series they found out how to neutralize him.

ropjhk · Post #12 » by **ropjhk** » Mon May 9, 2022 3:41 pm

Even if he does drop off the Warriors still have enough firepower to get to the next round.

Post #13 » by **FNQ** » Mon May 9, 2022 3:43 pm

I mean if he doesnt, he's the best player in the league right? 71% TS

He's been a hot/cold player, even in the playoffs. He had poor games in 4/5 vs. Denver IIRC (or maybe 3/4? I dunno but 2 in a row)

Meanwhile, Curry's been cold from 3. So there's 2 extremes going, they'll probably pass by each other at some point and the natural order will be restored. I think we're fortunate that 1 is on while the other isn't, because if both are off, it could get ugly

MindState · Post #14 » by **MindState** » Mon May 9, 2022 4:24 pm

Yes, but Steph and Klay are due to a massive uptick. Both of them have been awful from 3.

MindState · Post #15 » by **MindState** » Mon May 9, 2022 4:25 pm

Onus wrote:
GeorgeSears wrote:There was a stretch against the Nuggets where he looked like an average role player... that lasted about two games.

The last 2 games of the Denver series they found out how to neutralize him.

They put Aaron Gordon on him. The key to slowing down Poole is to put a big, long athletic wing on him and be physical with him all game. Poole probably learned how to deal with that type of defense at this point but thats what Denver did to shut him down.

I dont know if Memphis has that kind of player available though thats big, athletic and physical BUT can also keep up with Pooles speed.

Liam_Gallagher · Post #16 » by **Liam_Gallagher** » Mon May 9, 2022 4:28 pm

I'm still shocked that he went from the worst rookie in 2020 (shot 33%, team was horrific, didn't even make the bubble) to dropping 30 on dudes heads in big playoff games.

Onus · Post #17 » by **Onus** » Mon May 9, 2022 4:31 pm

Liam_Gallagher wrote:I'm still shocked that he went from the worst rookie in 2020 (shot 33%, team was horrific, didn't even make the bubble) to dropping 30 on dudes heads in big playoff games.

And he didn’t even get to be a finalist for mip. Lmao

meekrab · Post #18 » by **meekrab** » Mon May 9, 2022 4:46 pm

Nah he's secretly the GOAT we just don't know it yet.

Ilovethebay · Post #19 » by **Ilovethebay** » Mon May 9, 2022 4:48 pm

MindState wrote:Yes, but Steph and Klay are due to a massive uptick. Both of them have been awful from 3.

I think you meant to type “awful by their own standards”. My bad, even that would be inaccurate. Your comment is unfixable.

GSWFan1994 · Post #20 » by **GSWFan1994** » Mon May 9, 2022 5:20 pm

Liam_Gallagher wrote:I'm still shocked that he went from the worst rookie in 2020 (shot 33%, team was horrific, didn't even make the bubble) to dropping 30 on dudes heads in big playoff games.

Me too, Liam.

I thought he was really, really, REALLY bad as a rookie. Like, all-time bad.

And I don't know if you know... but Poole didn't start his 2nd season well, too. He was sent to the G-League. Check his monthly splits if you dare.

Somewhere along the way, a lightbulb popped off and he figured out something and voilá, we're here today.

His development curve is one of the most unexpected I've seen in my roughly 30+ years following the NBA.

As for Poole, obviously he will not have a 70% TS for the rest of the playoffs, but as said above, Curry and Klay are due to some variance to their mean, so in the end I think it will all even out.