Post#148 » by Doctor MJ » Wed May 11, 2022 4:15 pm
Appreciate the way eminence laid out the candidates. Good starting point for anyone who has this stuff jumbled in their head - which is a common feeling around this point in the playoffs typically.
One thing I'll say about how I tend to roll:
I tend to be reluctant to re-arrange my rankings in the playoffs when the team results go the expected way.
The guy who I think is emerging as the poster boy for this is Doncic. If Dallas gets eliminated in this round, I don't think I'll be strongly considering him for a POY slot no matter what his performances are to end the series (because I didn't think he deserved consideration through the RS)...but he wills his team past the Suns, he'll definitely be someone I'm seriously considering and all of a sudden his RS ranking won't matter nearly as much to me.
There's an absurdity to thinking like this, and it's a reason to zoom out and do player evaluation on a time scale that is not chained to the narrative of a single season, but when I think about in-season achievement, I feel like this is how I have to do it to align myself with the emphasis of the basketball world which absolutely determines the focus of the players.
The next guys who I knew from the jump would have something like this going for them are Giannis & Embiid. I had Tatum ahead of both of them in the regular season, but would not have had they achieved a better team record. Reasoning? I had those guys as better players in mind before the season, and despite Tatum's emergence, I'm still skeptical he's really on their level, so as long as the guy I perceive as superior is leading a team to a higher seed, it's easy for me to ignore things like a bit of missed time or coasting. But they didn't do that - frankly they and their teams almost seemed to be tanking to avoid the Nets - and there's all sorts of evidence indicating that Tatum actually achieved more in the RS.
And so, as we watch Giannis & Tatum play against each other this round, while if Giannis leads the Bucks past the Celtics that probably makes things pretty straight forward, I'm not sure if I'll elevate Giannis ahead of Tatum if the Celtics win even if I end the series thinking "Yup, still think Giannis is better". Others are of course free to go about things differently.
On Suns/Heat guys - a different conundrum. #1 seeds where I didn't have any of their players in my Top 5, so what will it take for them to bust their way into my Top 5 beyond simply living up to their RS seed? Frankly it's more straight forward for the Heat because they have nothing like the record of a #1 seed and their two stars - Jimmy & Bam - were handicapped by injury. If the Heat end up beating all comers on the back of one of these guys looking like the best player in the playoffs, it would be pretty simple to elevate them.
The Suns on the other hand truly defy classic "this guy is the MVP candidate from his team" logic even if people have avoided admitting it. Paul was the MVP candidate until he got hurt, then folks past that torch to Booker...even before Booker had played as much time as Paul. Then there's the matter that from an RS +/- perspective, to me Bridges is the obvious MVP. Most MPG, most minutes by a large margin, best +/- & On/Off. To me it's an act of denial the way people ignore a guy like Bridges - basically refusing to even consider him for all-star & All-NBA accolade simply because they've decided other guys are the real "stars".
Of course as I say this, part of the reason why Bridges is considered lesser than Paul, Booker & Ayton is because all 3 of those guys were better in last year's playoffs and Bridges plays a more role-player-like style that people tend to think can't really be relied upon against tough competition. While I think we should be cautious in dismissing players simply because they don't play classical star-like roles, I'm certainly watching closely these playoffs and if the Suns win it all with one of Paul/Booker/Ayton as the clear playoff MVP, that player will be a serious candidate to break into my Top 5.
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