best spurs player in 2005: manu or duncan

[falcolombardi]

this topic came up in a different thread and i thought it was interesting

who do you think was the most valuable spur that season?

[sp6r=underrated]

I'm a huge Duncan guy. I truly believe 05 was Duncan's peak. It was at the age you'd expect a peak to occur, when a player has sufficient experience but still most of their young athletic ability. But he had a devastating injury that year and wasn't really healthy until 2007.

So I go Manu. Manu was in my mind top 5 caliber from 05-07. After that he started getting chronically hurt and had to have significant minutes reductions.

[70sFan]

Duncan was the most important and the most valuable player for the entire season. In RS, he was clear MVP candidate until he got hurt and then, even through injury, he was probably the most important Spurs player in the WC run.

Manu likely should have won the FMVP, but we shouldn't simply look at Duncan's stats and conclude he had poor series. Duncan's rebounding and defense were massive for the Spurs. He also drew so much attention inside that Spurs perimeter players had more space to breathe. It's one of the biggest differences between 2004 and 2005 finals. When Pistons decided to defend Shaq straight, the rest of the Lakers team collapsed. Shaq had better scoring stats, but didn't create for others and his lack of defense and rebounding hurt Lakers on the other end of the floor. Duncan struggled with his shooting, but he was defended differently than Shaq.

[LukaTheGOAT]

Do you want us to put more focus on the RS/PS or is that up to us? Because Duncan was the best in the world in 05 though his injury complicates things regarding the PS.

[No-more-rings]

I think clearly Duncan. Manu was great, but his minutes and raw production just don’t stack up.

[No-more-rings]

I'm a huge Duncan guy. I truly believe 05 was Duncan's peak. It was at the age you'd expect a peak to occur, when a player has sufficient experience but still most of their young athletic ability. But he had a devastating injury that year and wasn't really healthy until 2007.

So I go Manu. Manu was in my mind top 5 caliber from 05-07. After that he started getting chronically hurt and had to have significant minutes reductions.

What devastating injury are you referring to exactly? I think Duncan hurt his ankle or something, but statistically there' nothing to suggest Duncan at any point was playing at or above his 2003 level.

[Colbinii]

I'm a huge Duncan guy. I truly believe 05 was Duncan's peak. It was at the age you'd expect a peak to occur, when a player has sufficient experience but still most of their young athletic ability. But he had a devastating injury that year and wasn't really healthy until 2007.

So I go Manu. Manu was in my mind top 5 caliber from 05-07. After that he started getting chronically hurt and had to have significant minutes reductions.

What devastating injury are you referring to exactly? I think Duncan hurt his ankle or something, but statistically there' nothing to suggest Duncan at any point was playing at or above his 2003 level.

He sprained his ankle on March 21st, the same ankle he sprained earlier in the year.

[Peregrine01]

Depends on how much you value Manu's offense over Duncan's defense.

[cupcakesnake]

Manu was the better offensive player. But that alone doesn't climb him all the way above the mountain of Tim's 2-way value.

[70sFan]

I'm a huge Duncan guy. I truly believe 05 was Duncan's peak. It was at the age you'd expect a peak to occur, when a player has sufficient experience but still most of their young athletic ability. But he had a devastating injury that year and wasn't really healthy until 2007.

So I go Manu. Manu was in my mind top 5 caliber from 05-07. After that he started getting chronically hurt and had to have significant minutes reductions.

What devastating injury are you referring to exactly? I think Duncan hurt his ankle or something, but statistically there' nothing to suggest Duncan at any point was playing at or above his 2003 level.

I think pre-injury Spurs put up extremely impressive run and Duncan's raw production wasn't super impressive because they blew out their opponents with ease. If I remember correctly, pre-injury Duncan posted something like +12 +/-, which is staggering, almost in 2016 Curry territory.

[No-more-rings]

I'm a huge Duncan guy. I truly believe 05 was Duncan's peak. It was at the age you'd expect a peak to occur, when a player has sufficient experience but still most of their young athletic ability. But he had a devastating injury that year and wasn't really healthy until 2007.

So I go Manu. Manu was in my mind top 5 caliber from 05-07. After that he started getting chronically hurt and had to have significant minutes reductions.

What devastating injury are you referring to exactly? I think Duncan hurt his ankle or something, but statistically there' nothing to suggest Duncan at any point was playing at or above his 2003 level.

I think pre-injury Spurs put up extremely impressive run and Duncan's raw production wasn't super impressive because they blew out their opponents with ease. If I remember correctly, pre-injury Duncan posted something like +12 +/-, which is staggering, almost in 2016 Curry territory.

What do you mean +12 +/-?

[sp6r=underrated]

I'm a huge Duncan guy. I truly believe 05 was Duncan's peak. It was at the age you'd expect a peak to occur, when a player has sufficient experience but still most of their young athletic ability. But he had a devastating injury that year and wasn't really healthy until 2007.

So I go Manu. Manu was in my mind top 5 caliber from 05-07. After that he started getting chronically hurt and had to have significant minutes reductions.

What devastating injury are you referring to exactly? I think Duncan hurt his ankle or something, but statistically there' nothing to suggest Duncan at any point was playing at or above his 2003 level.

I think pre-injury Spurs put up extremely impressive run and Duncan's raw production wasn't super impressive because they blew out their opponents with ease. If I remember correctly, pre-injury Duncan posted something like +12 +/-, which is staggering, almost in 2016 Curry territory.

The Spurs prior to the injury played at a 10+ SRS level

[No-more-rings]

What devastating injury are you referring to exactly? I think Duncan hurt his ankle or something, but statistically there' nothing to suggest Duncan at any point was playing at or above his 2003 level.

I think pre-injury Spurs put up extremely impressive run and Duncan's raw production wasn't super impressive because they blew out their opponents with ease. If I remember correctly, pre-injury Duncan posted something like +12 +/-, which is staggering, almost in 2016 Curry territory.

The Spurs prior to the injury played at a 10+ SRS level

Why does that mean Duncan was at his peak though?

[70sFan]

What devastating injury are you referring to exactly? I think Duncan hurt his ankle or something, but statistically there' nothing to suggest Duncan at any point was playing at or above his 2003 level.

I think pre-injury Spurs put up extremely impressive run and Duncan's raw production wasn't super impressive because they blew out their opponents with ease. If I remember correctly, pre-injury Duncan posted something like +12 +/-, which is staggering, almost in 2016 Curry territory.

What do you mean +12 +/-?

Point differential with him on the floor.

[sp6r=underrated]

I think pre-injury Spurs put up extremely impressive run and Duncan's raw production wasn't super impressive because they blew out their opponents with ease. If I remember correctly, pre-injury Duncan posted something like +12 +/-, which is staggering, almost in 2016 Curry territory.

The Spurs prior to the injury played at a 10+ SRS level

Why does that mean Duncan was at his peak though?

1. The plus/minus stats indicate he was playing better on both ends.
2. The quality of his teammates in 05 relative to 02 meant their was less need for him to score as much/.
3. This is purely conjecture on my part but I think HOFers tend to peak slightly later as they maintain most of their youthful athleticism but now have an advanced understanding of the game. 08 or 09 to me is Kobe's peak even though it doesn't stand out above his other seasons statistically.

[falcolombardi]

Do you want us to put more focus on the RS/PS or is that up to us? Because Duncan was the best in the world in 05 though his injury complicates things regarding the PS.

honestly, however you guys want to evaluate is fine

feel free to weight regular season and play offs however you prefer

[SK21209]

Duncan was the best Spurs player every year from 1998 to 2015.

[ShotCreator]

Duncan and Manu were on the opposite ends of the motor and endurance spectrum. I think health too IIRC.

Either way, Duncan wasn’t better than the two-way dominance Manu ramped up to in that season.

[70sFan]

Duncan and Manu were on the opposite ends of the motor and endurance spectrum. I think health too IIRC.

Either way, Duncan wasn’t better than the two-way dominance Manu ramped up to in that season.

Manu was never dominant defender.

[Doctor MJ]

I'm a huge Duncan guy. I truly believe 05 was Duncan's peak. It was at the age you'd expect a peak to occur, when a player has sufficient experience but still most of their young athletic ability. But he had a devastating injury that year and wasn't really healthy until 2007.

So I go Manu. Manu was in my mind top 5 caliber from 05-07. After that he started getting chronically hurt and had to have significant minutes reductions.

What devastating injury are you referring to exactly? I think Duncan hurt his ankle or something, but statistically there' nothing to suggest Duncan at any point was playing at or above his 2003 level.

So, I'll say:

1. I do think Duncan's apex was in his MVP years. Unlike many others players, I think his offense and defense impact peaked at roughly the same time and it was a smidge before '04-05. However, I also think it's clear that Duncan at his best continued to be an MVP-candidate level player through '06-07, and that his defensive impact remained excellent for a very long time, so I'm really quite fine with Duncan as a choice for MVP in '04-05, though the injury ended up tipping the scale away from him in my book, and frankly it was the missed time more so than anything else I'm thinking of there.

2. But the post-season was a problem. To point to a couple of statistical things: His playoff TS% was the lowest of his prime and his playoff On-Off was the worst of his entire career at -5.3 as a player who was strongly positive by that stat typically. But what was really the takeaway at the time was that Duncan was choking and his teammates were bailing him out. Here's an article from the time:

DUNCAN: ‘BIG SHOT’ SAVED ME

Duncan called his fourth quarter an “absolute nightmare,” adding that Horry “pulled me out of an incredible hole that I put myself in.”

I remember another piece from the time saying something like "Duncan should get down on his knees and worship Horry!". That's clearly ridiculous, but it's pointing to something that was really clear at the time:

While Duncan still looked like the MVP because the team was still running everything through Duncan and getting volume opportunities, there were lots of frustrating mistakes he was making out there which everyone agreed related to his missed time and injury, but also involved mental discombobulation.

So, yeah, it's funny because at the time you had all this criticism of Duncan, but when the Finals MVP voting happened, people still went with the alpha, which then tends to make people in the future say "Pfft, clearly you're overstating the issues because otherwise they would have given the Finals MVP to someone else!". I think that if you put up the big scoring numbers of the series and you're on the winning team, you're going to get the Finals MVP basically as entitlement even if everyone involved knows it wasn't your finest moment.