Brad Stevens Thread – Finding The Way

[ConstableGeneva]

It's not just the raw PPG, it's the skills sets behind them. For instance, the year TOR won Lowry only had 14 PPG. The next year though he had 19 once Kawhi left. It's not just about what they average, but there are going to be games where you need someone else who can go get a bucket. We only have two guys that are consistently capable of any type of volume scoring. We need another guy who can scale up his scoring output. We don't have anyone else who can create a shot for themselves with any sort of consistency.

I don't know what those two person examples are, but but my guess is that they're better than Tatum and Brown. We don't have Lebron and Anthony Davis. Tatum/Brown aren't that good. That model won't work for us.

A working proven model for decades is having a generational talent, an all-timer in his prime. Which we don't have.

Examples above are Steph/Klay (they had Dray as 3rd guy) and AD/Bron (Playoff Rondo was their 3rd guy?).

The year the Warriors won without Durant, they also had Harrison Barnes fwiw. Once he left them he became a 20 PPG scorer on his own team. Do you think we have anyone on our team who could do that? Heck no. Steph and Clay are also two of the greatest shooters of all time. The Lakers had Lebron and AD. Lebron is maybe the absolute GOAT and AD is better than Brown will ever be as a #2. I just don't view those as the viable comparisons. Those are not the teams to emulate.

The Bucks had Middleton and Jrue backing up Giannis. The Raptors had Lowry who proved the next year he was a still a capable volume scorer and Siakam who proved he jut needed that opportunity. Our title had a big 3. The Spurs always had Manu and Parker backing up TImmy. MIA had the 3 Heatles. CLE had Love and Kyrie behind Lebron.

Look, maybe Tatum/Brown can make the two scorer model work. But I think it'd be one giant, unsubstantiated leap of faith to actually build your team under that assumption. That's just not the model that makes sense to emulate.

My point is Cs can get a 3rd reliable scorer and it may still not matter since their top guy isn't on the level of the Kawhis/Bron/Giannis/Steph.

Look at all your examples of having 3 guys. Their top guy is still an all-timer.

FWIW, I think White is more than capable of scoring in the 18-20 range. His high per 36 with Spurs is just below 19 ppg. Cs offense just don't work that way. Too Jays-centric. White can play the Hayward role from two years ago. Maybe once he gets into training camp.

[ConstableGeneva]

We've also had scorers on this team alongside the Jays in the past -- Mook, TRo, Hayward, Kemba, Fournier. Mixed success but never beyond ECF. Our top guy in any of those seasons isn't an MVP-caliber player.

How about TJ Warren for MLE? John Wall if bought out? Trade for Brogdon? I wanted Norman Powell but we went in a different direction.

[165bows]

A working proven model for decades is having a generational talent, an all-timer in his prime. Which we don't have.

Examples above are Steph/Klay (they had Dray as 3rd guy) and AD/Bron (Playoff Rondo was their 3rd guy?).

The year the Warriors won without Durant, they also had Harrison Barnes fwiw. Once he left them he became a 20 PPG scorer on his own team. Do you think we have anyone on our team who could do that? Heck no. Steph and Clay are also two of the greatest shooters of all time. The Lakers had Lebron and AD. Lebron is maybe the absolute GOAT and AD is better than Brown will ever be as a #2. I just don't view those as the viable comparisons. Those are not the teams to emulate.

The Bucks had Middleton and Jrue backing up Giannis. The Raptors had Lowry who proved the next year he was a still a capable volume scorer and Siakam who proved he jut needed that opportunity. Our title had a big 3. The Spurs always had Manu and Parker backing up TImmy. MIA had the 3 Heatles. CLE had Love and Kyrie behind Lebron.

Look, maybe Tatum/Brown can make the two scorer model work. But I think it'd be one giant, unsubstantiated leap of faith to actually build your team under that assumption. That's just not the model that makes sense to emulate.

My point is Cs can get a 3rd reliable scorer and it may still not matter since their top guy isn't on the level of the Kawhis/Bron/Giannis/Steph.

Look at all your examples of having 3 guys. Their top guy is still an all-timer.

FWIW, I think White is more than capable of scoring in the 18-20 range. His high per 36 with Spurs is just below 19 ppg. Cs offense just don't work that way. Too Jays-centric. White can play the Hayward role from two years ago. Maybe once he gets into training camp.

No doubt the offense needs to improve to win a title. ‘08 team was better in a lot of ways and they still struggled offensively plenty through the playoffs.

[165bows]

We've also had scorers on this team alongside the Jays in the past -- Mook, TRo, Hayward, Kemba, Fournier. Mixed success but never beyond ECF. Our top guy in any of those seasons isn't an MVP-caliber player.

How about TJ Warren for MLE? John Wall if bought out? Trade for Brogdon? I wanted Norman Powell but we went in a different direction.

I agree with what patsfan is saying in that the team needs more high level offensive creation, assuming that’s what he means. IOW, there are plenty of guys that can do some average efficiency scoring on good volume. This team needs more than that, someone else who can -create- great shots for others. They’ve got efficient role scorers but need someone to put those guys in their best spots by being a threat. J’s are great but they aren’t 6 assist/8FTA per game guys, nor are they 40%+ 3PT shooters either.

[ConstableGeneva]

If Cs are to acquire that 3rd scorer/shotmaker, I don't think it can be another guy who makes 30M+ per year. It's harder to maintain the depth and type of defensive excellence across the board when team spends 80-100M on just 3 guys (see Lakers and Nets). 3rd guy would have to be in his rookie contract, a 2nd round draft pick, or undrafted guy emerging out of nowhere. Think Maxey, Poole, Herro, Bane, Brunson, FVV before he got paid.

[hugepatsfan]

Per 36 numbers are nice, but I think there's a reason that White has never been given enough shots to turn them into actual per game numbers... he's not a good enough offensive player for it. Not a shot at him, I think he's a great piece, that's just not what he brings.

There's not a single player outside of the J's that any of us want taking someone off the dribble at any point. Grant and Pritchard are the only guys on our team above league average from 3 outside of the J's and Pritchard is too small for them to trust him with more than 12 minutes/game these playoffs.

I'm not even calling for major wholesale changes. I think we could use someone in the Pritchard role as a designated shooter who ha enough size that they trust him to play 18-20 minutes in a playoff game. And I think Smart/White are somewhat redundant in the backcourt and one of them should be moved for someone that trades some defense for a little more offense. I'm not saying go get another IT/Kyrie/(healthy) Kemba who are all offense no defense undersized PGs, but for roster balance I think we should take SOME trade off of offense for defense.

I agree that it'd all be for naught if Tatum can't take another leap or two. But even if he does, I still think this team would be held back by a lack of more offensive talent. I think these are moves that will need to be made to support him even if he des take that leap.

[Hal14]

complete BS that Brad was 6th in executive of the year voting.

the grizzlies guy won? lol they basically have the same team as they had last yr. only thing they did was trade valanciunuas for adams which was basically a wash, if anything a little bit of a downgrade. they moved up a few spots in the draft by making that trade but took ziaire williams. who hasn't been that good, he's been ok.

then the grizz traded away beverly for basically nothing.

how does he get the award over brad and brad doesn't even finish top 5?

it seems like the grizzlies guy wins for his work over the past few yrs. and brad was penalized for only being an exec for 1 year. but it's called executive of the YEAR, not executive of the past few years, smh

[hugepatsfan]

complete BS that Brad was 6th in executive of the year voting.

the grizzlies guy won? lol they basically have the same team as they had last yr. only thing they did was trade valanciunuas for adams which was basically a wash, if anything a little bit of a downgrade. they moved up a few spots in the draft by making that trade but took ziaire williams. who hasn't been that good, he's been ok.

then the grizz traded away beverly for basically nothing.

how does he get the award over brad and brad doesn't even finish top 5?

it seems like the grizzlies guy wins for his work over the past few yrs. and brad was penalized for only being an exec for 1 year. but it's called executive of the YEAR, not executive of the past few years, smh

Yeah this is true about the Griz guy getting it for this year particularly when most of the heavy lifting was done in prior years. But that's kind of the tough thing with EOTY. Team building is very rarely a 1 year thing and the toughest parts of it usually come early in the process before results start showing. So in a lot of year it sets up to be this type of "culmination of a multi year process" type of recognition. Unless there's one obvious move that pushes a team over the top then a lot of times there isn't a great choice for a one year award.

[BK_2020]

Grant and Pritchard are the only guys on our team above league average from 3 outside of the J's

Jaylen is 1% above league average for 3 point shooting % and Tatum is at league average. Neither is a good three point shooter, all things considered.

[hugepatsfan]

Grant and Pritchard are the only guys on our team above league average from 3 outside of the J's

Jaylen is 1% above league average for 3 point shooting % and Tatum is at league average. Neither is a good three point shooter, all things considered.

I kind of conflated statistical average and just general assessment there. Tatum and Brown each face heavy pressure. They take high difficulty, off the dribble 3s often. Teams close out hard on them. All that type of anecdotal stuff. No matter what percentage they shot this year, I consider each of them a floor spacing asset if they're standing at the 3 point line while someone else has the ball. Problem is it's only them and Grant/Pritchard who can say that. And Pritchard plays such limited minutes that you don't really get tons of benefit from that.

[165bows]

Grant and Pritchard are the only guys on our team above league average from 3 outside of the J's

Jaylen is 1% above league average for 3 point shooting % and Tatum is at league average. Neither is a good three point shooter, all things considered.

I kind of conflated statistical average and just general assessment there. Tatum and Brown each face heavy pressure. They take high difficulty, off the dribble 3s often. Teams close out hard on them. All that type of anecdotal stuff. No matter what percentage they shot this year, I consider each of them a floor spacing asset if they're standing at the 3 point line while someone else has the ball. Problem is it's only them and Grant/Pritchard who can say that. And Pritchard plays such limited minutes that you don't really get tons of benefit from that.

Exactly. The majority of guys in the league get assisted on 90%+ of their threes. A small slice hit half of the total number of their threes made without being assisted. There is a canyon sized gulf between the Js and everyone else on the team in that regard. Each one of those guys prob hits more unassisted threes than the rest of the team 2-15.

[BK_2020]

Jaylen is 1% above league average for 3 point shooting % and Tatum is at league average. Neither is a good three point shooter, all things considered.

I kind of conflated statistical average and just general assessment there. Tatum and Brown each face heavy pressure. They take high difficulty, off the dribble 3s often. Teams close out hard on them. All that type of anecdotal stuff. No matter what percentage they shot this year, I consider each of them a floor spacing asset if they're standing at the 3 point line while someone else has the ball. Problem is it's only them and Grant/Pritchard who can say that. And Pritchard plays such limited minutes that you don't really get tons of benefit from that.

Exactly. The majority of guys in the league get assisted on 90%+ of their threes. A small slice hit half of the total number of their threes made without being assisted. There is a canyon sized gulf between the Js and everyone else on the team in that regard. Each one of those guys prob hits more unassisted threes than the rest of the team 2-15.

Jaylen Brown is assisted on 76% of his three-point attempts, and my anecdotal view is, most of his threes are fairly easy shots. Even his unassisted three-point attempts are mostly pull-ups early in the shotclock as he brings the ball up. Jaylen isn't taking stepback threes off the dribble like he's Luka Doncic.
Tatum is assisted on only 56% of his attempts.

[Smart2Nesmith43]

complete BS that Brad was 6th in executive of the year voting.

the grizzlies guy won? lol they basically have the same team as they had last yr. only thing they did was trade valanciunuas for adams which was basically a wash, if anything a little bit of a downgrade. they moved up a few spots in the draft by making that trade but took ziaire williams. who hasn't been that good, he's been ok.

then the grizz traded away beverly for basically nothing.

how does he get the award over brad and brad doesn't even finish top 5?

it seems like the grizzlies guy wins for his work over the past few yrs. and brad was penalized for only being an exec for 1 year. but it's called executive of the YEAR, not executive of the past few years, smh

I'd rather they give it to someone who piloted a very successful rebuild (even if it's more of a legacy achievement) than some random exec in LA that had two max slots and signed two superstars. To Kleiman's credit, he resisted the temptation of blowing future assets on a team that's still a year or two away. Look at Cleveland giving away their first this year to get Levert to try to secure a playoff berth where they were never going to be competitve. But you know in three years when Mobley and Garland have grown up the front office wiill be like damn I wish we had an extra guy on the wing to round out our roster right now. Yeah I wonder why he's wearing a Pacers jersey too. Sometimes the best deals are those you don't make.

Executive of the Year is voted on by the GMs of the 30 franchises instead of the media like the other awards so it's arguably even more of a popularity contest. It would make sense that Stevens hasn't built the same kind of relations with other GMs than executives that have been on the job for decades.

[165bows]

I kind of conflated statistical average and just general assessment there. Tatum and Brown each face heavy pressure. They take high difficulty, off the dribble 3s often. Teams close out hard on them. All that type of anecdotal stuff. No matter what percentage they shot this year, I consider each of them a floor spacing asset if they're standing at the 3 point line while someone else has the ball. Problem is it's only them and Grant/Pritchard who can say that. And Pritchard plays such limited minutes that you don't really get tons of benefit from that.

Exactly. The majority of guys in the league get assisted on 90%+ of their threes. A small slice hit half of the total number of their threes made without being assisted. There is a canyon sized gulf between the Js and everyone else on the team in that regard. Each one of those guys prob hits more unassisted threes than the rest of the team 2-15.

Jaylen Brown is assisted on 76% of his three-point attempts, and my anecdotal view is, most of his threes are fairly easy shots. Even his unassisted three-point attempts are mostly pull-ups early in the shotclock as he brings the ball up. Jaylen isn't taking stepback threes off the dribble like he's Luka Doncic.
Tatum is assisted on only 56% of his attempts.

Exactly. He made more unassisted threes than Grant, Al, Smart and half the bench combined. All of those guys have their threes spoon fed to them at a 90%+ rate.

Point is that parroting raw percentages as a sign of shooting quality isn’t nearly as strong an indicator as it seems.

[BK_2020]

Point is that parroting raw percentages as a sign of shooting quality isn’t nearly as strong an indicator as it seems.

Do you even know what "raw percentages" are? 3P+ is a league adjusted stat. It is the opposite of raw percentages.
101 3P+ when you are assisted on 76% of your threes is not what a "good three-point shooter" looks like. Jaylen taking more unassisted threes than Grant Williams doesn't make him a good three-point shooter. Believe it or not, "Better than Grant Williams" is not this NBA's barometer for excellence in 3 point shooting.

[165bows]

Point is that parroting raw percentages as a sign of shooting quality isn’t nearly as strong an indicator as it seems.

Do you even know what "raw percentages" are? 3P+ is a league adjusted stat. It is the opposite of raw percentages.
101 3P+ when you are assisted on 76% of your threes is not what a "good three-point shooter" looks like. Jaylen taking more unassisted threes than Grant Williams doesn't make him a good three-point shooter. Believe it or not, "Better than Grant Williams" is not this NBA's barometer for excellence in 3 point shooting.

Yeah that’s a terrible stat.

[Smart2Nesmith43]

Pat Connaughton has a 5.7 million player option for next season. I wonder if he can get more on the open market (if he keeps up his level of play from this series he can for sure) and if the Celtics would be interested (probably for the midlevel).

[hugepatsfan]

Pat Connaughton has a 5.7 million player option for next season. I wonder if he can get more on the open market (if he keeps up his level of play from this series he can for sure) and if the Celtics would be interested (probably for the midlevel).

Problem is we'd only be able to offer the mini-MLE of about $6.4M. MIL would have bird rights to match that and pay him more. If that's the modest raise he's opting out for, no reason for MIL not to match. The way he's playing, maybe he gets some offers for the full MLE of ~$10M. That could make it tougher on MIL luxury tax wise (because Portis could opt out for the same type of raise as well). But even in that event, we probably can't be the team offering him the full MLE.

We could waive/stretch Al Horford's partial guarantee (unless it becomes fuller guaranteed if we win it all) to open up the full MLE. But that seems very counterproductive as he's a better player and it would make for ugly dead money in future tax years.

[165bows]

Pat Connaughton has a 5.7 million player option for next season. I wonder if he can get more on the open market (if he keeps up his level of play from this series he can for sure) and if the Celtics would be interested (probably for the midlevel).

Problem is we'd only be able to offer the mini-MLE of about $6.4M. MIL would have bird rights to match that and pay him more. If that's the modest raise he's opting out for, no reason for MIL not to match. The way he's playing, maybe he gets some offers for the full MLE of ~$10M. That could make it tougher on MIL luxury tax wise (because Portis could opt out for the same type of raise as well). But even in that event, we probably can't be the team offering him the full MLE.

We could waive/stretch Al Horford's partial guarantee (unless it becomes fuller guaranteed if we win it all) to open up the full MLE. But that seems very counterproductive as he's a better player and it would make for ugly dead money in future tax years.

I’d rather Portis than Connaughton but agree they both probably get more than what they could offer with the MLE. I think it will be tough for Milwaukee to bring all their FAs back just due to their total salary outlays. Guess it depends on what they can spend - they’ve got a massive amount invested in Giannis and Middleton.

OTOH, I do wonder how much better these guys look simply playing next to Giannis. Might be they leave and the next round of middling guys show up and start looking really good there.

[sam_I_am]

Grant and Pritchard are the only guys on our team above league average from 3 outside of the J's

Jaylen is 1% above league average for 3 point shooting % and Tatum is at league average. Neither is a good three point shooter, all things considered.

When Tatum was just another guy - for like 2 months as a rookie - who stood in the corner…..he shot nearly 60% from 3. He is so far above average that he is the primary focus of every defense that plays the Celtics. When compared to other guys like that….yeah he’s not as good as Curry or Booker but to see he isn’t good is ludicrous.