Inconvenient Truth for Embiid Haters

[GeorgeMarcus]

I had the pleasure of watching the Sixers disappoint in person last night and no doubt there's plenty of room for criticism. That said, skimming through some of the RealGM reactions last night I was forced to holster my criticisms in the name of loyalty and objective truth. Embiid didn't play well the last 2 games- that goes without saying. Many would argue a fractured orbital/torn ligament in his thumb gives him a pass, but even for the harshest critics out there, let's suppose you put no weight on his injuries at all. Well here is some interesting insight fo you harsh critics.

In the following doc we have playoff +/- data for every active player who was ever an All Star: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fqVYWnLJqEjHl5hwYtnlEnWal46gKaIXIloEZXf2FVs/edit?usp=sharing

Usually I like per 100 poss metrics but I didn't have the means to generate those. So here we have both "per game" and "per 48 min" numbers to account for the disparity in mpg. You may notice that "Chokebiid" (thank you Woodsanity ) has the 2nd best per minute +/- of all 64 current and former All Stars, wedged between a couple guys with 3 rings and 5 Finals appearances. This is the same guy who played through 2 orbital fractures, a torn ligament in his thumb, lower back strains and a torn meniscus last season. The same guy shouldered the blame for the 2020 Celtics series playing without Simmons and with one of the worst roster constructions of all time (he would rank 1st easily if not for that series)

Some of you will cling to whatever narratives you want to believe, but the reality is Embiid has been just as impactful in the playoffs as in the RS. The amount of attention he generates from opposing defenders + his ability to single-handedly elevate the defense is unlike anything I've seen in my ~25 years of Sixers fandom. IMO the attention he draws from defenders is the reason so many people think he struggles in the playoffs, but it's simply game planning which dares the Sixers to win on the backs of anyone not named Joel. So far we have failed him in that regard.

In case anyone planned to use the "better teammates" argument, that is clearly not the case. For example, the Nuggets without Jokic have a significantly better +/- in the playoffs than the Sixers without Embiid. Meanwhile the Joker has a negative playoff +/- and is considered a better playoff performer than the 2nd winningest player per min ??? (I completely support Jokic winning MVP by the way. Just making a point.)

In conclusion it's time for the haters to go back in your holes and pop out the next time somebody gets ousted from the playoffs. In the end, everybody gets "exposed" except for one team

[tsherkin]

Tough to come at a guy who tried to play with a shrecked thumb and a broken face. Best to revisit next postseason, I imagine. With maybe a shade more respect for him that he even tried.

[Duffman100]

While you were writing this post, Embiid fell 4 times.

But in all seriousness, he’s a monster. One of the most talented players I’ve ever seen.

[The Rebel]

Are you really using plus minus data to argue that Embiid hasn't been bad in a lot of playoff games? Do you not know how plus minus works?

[GeorgeMarcus]

While you were writing this post, Embiid fell 4 times.

But in all seriousness, he’s a monster. One of the most talented players I’ve ever seen.

If Embiid falls on the court but nobody is there to hear it, does it make a sound?

[JimmyPlopper]

Are you really using plus minus data to argue that Embiid hasn't been bad in a lot of playoff games? Do you not know how plus minus works?

I've seen him post enough to be sure that he knows how it works - the personal attack was probably unnecessary element of the post which could have just been you disputing Embiid's impact. I don't like Embiid and am not surprised he had another early exit, but the poster you are quoting is a smart guy who probably has a good case to make if we are willing to listen.

[Exp0sed]

Playoff raw +- is utterly useless without context and sample size and all the other factors that make it incredibly noisy and quite frankly - misleading to the point of uselesness

If your entire argument is based on raw +-, in the playoffs.. then it's a weak and flawed argument

If you have other arguments to support such claim - please present them

[GeorgeMarcus]

Are you really using plus minus data to argue that Embiid hasn't been bad in a lot of playoff games? Do you not know how plus minus works?

It's pretty easy to understand but please enlighten me what you're getting at. Because, again, the Nuggets without Jokic have performed better in the playoffs than the Sixers without Embiid. Yet the Nuggets with Jokic have played significantly worse than the Sixers with Embiid. Any analyst worth their spit knows that no metrics capture defensive or off-ball offensive impact unless derived from +/-, on/off, RAPM, etc.

[GeorgeMarcus]

Are you really using plus minus data to argue that Embiid hasn't been bad in a lot of playoff games? Do you not know how plus minus works?

I've seen him post enough to be sure that he knows how it works - the personal attack was probably unnecessary element of the post which could have just been you disputing Embiid's impact. I don't like Embiid and am not surprised he had another early exit, but the poster you are quoting is a smart guy who probably has a good case to make if we are willing to listen.

Thanks Jimmy, always happy to engage in amicable disagreement

[Phreak50]

While you were writing this post, Embiid fell 4 times.

But in all seriousness, he’s a monster. One of the most talented players I’ve ever seen.

If Embiid falls on the court but nobody is there to hear it, does it make a sound?

Sure does..."AND ONE!"

[GeorgeMarcus]

Playoff raw +- is utterly useless without context and sample size and all the other factors that make it incredibly noisy and quite frankly - misleading to the point of uselesness

If your entire argument is based on raw +-, in the playoffs.. then it's a weak and flawed argument

If you have other arguments to support such claim - please present them

I'll repeat what I said above... There are no existing metrics that capture defensive or off-ball offensive impact unless derived from +/-, on/off, RAPM etc. Those are the stats that Embiid dominates in both during the playoffs and regular season. Context is always important but this pattern has transcended a wide variety of context.

[losmi]

Embiid played vs weak eastern conference playoff teams in 1st rounds and mediocre teams in 2nd rounds. And always on stacked teams.

Jokic played vs much better teams ('20 LAC and LAL, '21 PHO and '22 GSW among others). And last two years on depleted teams.

Hence the difference in +/-.

[maxwellcu]

I guess if he would stop getting swept in the first round every single year then people wouldn’t hate on him so much.

[monopoman]

Yep throughout most years if you were a top 4 team in the East you got a pretty damn cakewalk 1st round. Maybe the East is shifting and we might see a period where they are better than the West, but even if that is true it will only be this year forward.

[GeorgeMarcus]

I guess if he would stop getting swept in the first round every single year then people wouldn’t hate on him so much.

That only happened once

[GeorgeMarcus]

Embiid played vs weak eastern conference playoff teams in 1st rounds and mediocre teams in 2nd rounds. And always on stacked teams.

Jokic played vs much better teams ('20 LAC and LAL, '21 PHO and '22 GSW among others). And last two years on depleted teams.

Hence the difference in +/-.

Eh I disagree. Embiid's longest playoff series was against the Championship Raptors.He just finished a series against the #1 seeded Heat, and played a strong Celtics team on 2 different occasions

[Exp0sed]

Playoff raw +- is utterly useless without context and sample size and all the other factors that make it incredibly noisy and quite frankly - misleading to the point of uselesness

If your entire argument is based on raw +-, in the playoffs.. then it's a weak and flawed argument

If you have other arguments to support such claim - please present them

I'll repeat what I said above... There are no existing metrics that capture defensive or off-ball offensive impact unless derived from +/-, on/off, RAPM etc. Those are the stats that Embiid dominates in both during the playoffs and regular season. Context is always important but this pattern has transcended a wide variety of context.

You don't get it, it's not that "context is always important" it's that raw +- compared between different players, playing different roles vs. different teams on small sample size, without context in the playoffs is useless and meaningless

you say that "the reality is that Embiid has been just as impactful in the rs and in the playoffs"
is not a reality at all, it's a false statement, period.

It might be true, mind you - but raw +- cannot tell determine that in any credible way, shape or form

The reality is, that if we assume for argument sake that this data actually means what you think and claim it means (it doesn't) - then you would also need to explain some strange phenomenons such as:
how does the 2nd most impactful playoff performer (Embiid) coupled with the 11th most impactful playoff performer, lose in the second round to a mediocre Hawks team

Or how the season before that, this Playoff juggernaut manages to get swept by a mediocre Celtics team in the first round

or how the Warriors, led by the most impactful performer who plays with the #3 most impactful AND #10 (i'm not even counting Durant at #14) - ever managed to lose a single game in the playoffs, let alone a series

edit: just glanced at ur spreasheed again, one last phenomenon worth explaining is Dwight Howard
Howard carried a pretty limited and weakass team to the finals..and had some tremendous playoff performances yet his career playoff +- (despite being probably the best defensive big in the NBA in his prime) - is negative

how do you explain that?
was it actually Rashard Lewis doing the heavy lifting? haha

[Fadeaway_Jumper]

As a neutral spectator watching all the drama/hate erupt from the sidelines, I think the negativity towards the sixers is from a few places

-Embiid showboated last round and you had a very vocal fanbase excited to see him eliminated
-Harden is one of most criticized players (playstyle, playoff woes), and Doc became of the most criticized coaches after his clippers stint. Their hate spilled over on Embiid.
-When Harden came over the expectations were raised, but the bar was not met.
-Sixers fans gloated when Jokic was eliminated first round, and now Jokic supporters get their turn.

I was rooting for you guys because I'm one of the few Harden fans out there, but you guys are in trouble. Harden will want a lot of money but he clearly isn't the same guy from Houston or even before the hamstring injury in the playoffs last year. If you guys don't pay him someone will, and Simmons + picks were sent for nothing.

I'm just a neutral fan but interested how things play out because I actually like Doc, Harden, Embiid and Maxey (had him on my fantasy team)

[losmi]

Embiid played vs weak eastern conference playoff teams in 1st rounds and mediocre teams in 2nd rounds. And always on stacked teams.

Jokic played vs much better teams ('20 LAC and LAL, '21 PHO and '22 GSW among others). And last two years on depleted teams.

Hence the difference in +/-.

Eh I disagree. Embiid's longest playoff series was against the Championship Raptors.He just finished a series against the #1 seeded Heat, and played a strong Celtics team on 2 different occasions

Neither of those teams is remotely close to LAC, LAL, PHO and GSW teams that Jokic played against.

Except for Raptors, but Embiid played against them on the most stacked team.

And 1st round teams were much weaker.

[mademan]

Harden was also a +6.8 in the playoffs in on/off. Displaying that strong impact we all saw with our own eyes