2021-22 NBA Season Discussion

[jalengreen]

ok updated title odds now that the final four is set

warriors +123
celtics +204
heat +432
mavs +586

clear that the warriors v celtics matchup is what is favored (didn't need vegas odds to know that, i think it's evident)

celtics -171 (63% implied odds) to beat the heat
warriors -240 (71% implied odds) to beat the mavs

[jalengreen]

ok updated title odds now that the final four is set

warriors +123
celtics +204
heat +432
mavs +586

clear that the warriors v celtics matchup is what is favored (didn't need vegas odds to know that, i think it's evident)

celtics -171 (63% implied odds) to beat the heat
warriors -240 (71% implied odds) to beat the mavs

recent seasons where the favorite at this point did not win the finals

2019: warriors were favored, raptors won.
2016: warriors were favored, cavs won.
2014: heat were favored, spurs won. the spurs were, however, favored entering the finals
2012: asterisk, heat and spurs had about identical odds. the spurs then didn't even make the finals and okc entered the finals as favorites. heat won
2011: heat were favored, mavs won.
2009: cavs were favored, lakers won.
2008: lakers were favored, celtics won.
2006: pistons were favored, heat won.
2004: lakers were favored, pistons won.

so it's quite common for the odds favorite to not win the finals at this point for some reference

my one thought at this point in time is that i think the mavs might be slightly underrated

[sp6r=underrated]

It is pretty much the biggest teamwide 'choke' I can remember in the NBA off the top of my head.

In some ways kinda nice that the whole team laid an egg, hard to scapegoat anyone.

Put it to you this way, the Hawks put up a better showing in their G7 loss to Boston and that was a terrible team playing on the road against an ATG club.

[sp6r=underrated]

ok updated title odds now that the final four is set

warriors +123
celtics +204
heat +432
mavs +586

clear that the warriors v celtics matchup is what is favored (didn't need vegas odds to know that, i think it's evident)

celtics -171 (63% implied odds) to beat the heat
warriors -240 (71% implied odds) to beat the mavs

My championship probabilities hidden for the bettors. These are the most efficient lines in the world.

Spoiler:

Boston +204
Dallas +586
Miami +432
San Francisco +123

sportslines are efficient and if you lay down money you will lose. buy an index fund

[sp6r=underrated]

Why don't people think Monty should get some blame for what went down tonight? Getting your team prepared is a coach's job and they were woefully unprepared.

[Doctor MJ]

Why don't people think Monty should get some blame for what went down tonight? Getting your team prepared is a coach's job and they were woefully unprepared.

Monty clearly deserves part of the blame. His team got figured out over the course of 7 games by a drastically worse regular season team. When that happens, you never look good as coach.

[GSP]

Watch on YouTube

Now that the series is over i can appreciate this game more.......prolly the first truly classic and iconic game b/w 2 superstars of this era (Kd, Kawhi, Steph like guys are part of this era but closer to the way out and I dont really count them) w. both at the absolute top of their games. These dont come around every day..........

[LukaTheGOAT]

I think phoenix was just a very well coached team that relied on sets to create advantages, their primary creators were CP3 and Booker, and cp3 is 37 and isn't an elite scorer anymore, and generates almost no rim pressure. A lot was made of their elite of their elite offence that didn't generate many rim shots or threes (the threes they did take were good looks though), but that really came to the forefront in the playoffs imo.

Booker was wildly overrated this year imo, and his lack of rim pressure, elite efficiency or playmaking was really brought to light in this series. Also his improved POA D also got overrated imo, while he's definitely trying harder, we saw brunson attacking him multiple times after game 2 and booker really wasn't an effective cover, which they needed him to be with crowder slowing down and being effective against bigger slower players nowadays, and bridges having to usually take on the elite perimeter threats.

Ayton and Bridges were also dissapointing this series and I'm a huge bridges homer. I think I'll have to go rewatch the tape, but Bridges seemed to miss a lot of good looks from three, especially the corners, and that hampered his impact, and he really wasn't a good matchup for luka.

Ayton's defensive impact was nowhere to be found, with Biyombo looking the more effective pick and roll defender at several points throughout the latter parts of the series, and while he had a strong scoring output in game 6, there are multiple clips of him having strange decision making at times and not going up strong when he can. There are debates wether this be due to slow processing speed, pre planning his moves before he makes them or "soft" mentality (which I don't agree with), but it was a problem at times, and this offseason has just gotten a lot more interesting with Sarver's known cheap mentality, Ayton and Monty's apparent argument in the game and PHX's meltdown here, whether they'll cough up the max which it will likely take to keep him.

Multiple teams would love to have Ayton at the 5, as I think he has value as a centre that doesn't really get played off the court, and I think there is untapped potential on the offensive end with him, even if I don't think running a fulltime post offence through him is the answer. Earlier in the season, I wondered if Cleveland would entertain a sign and trade for JA, but at this point I think JA's defensive output seems greater, and with his contract, I don't think they'd go for that anymore.

Atlanta with a sign and trade for capela (although I really like Okongwu) , Dallas (who I don't think can fit him, but would be an upgrade over powell albeit very costly and not sure they want to tie big money to another risky big), Toronto (The easiest fit with a glaring hole at the 5, again Precious looked good to close the season though), San Antonio and Detroit look the strongest contenders for his services imo.


In regards to POY voting, I think Jokic and Giannis are most likely going to be my 1 and 2, barring something incredible happening from Curry who is also almost a top 5 lock for me even with his subpar series against memphis.

Tatum, Doncic, Butler and Embiid look like the only other top 5 candidates, and I wouldn't be shocked to have Embiid outside of my top 5 when it's all said and done.

Twitter thread that shared similar thoughts to you

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Read on Twitter

[ardee]

As a guy who has been defending CP3 recently and was hoping he won the title this year... that was unpleasant

Also, Dallas drafting Dirk and then Luka is like if Tim Duncan came along 10 years later than he actually did but the Spurs still got him. If Luka came along 10 years earlier the Mavs probably have a similar dynasty to the Spurs.

[ardee]

I'm gonna be hoping for a Heat-Mavs Finals, and I'd be fine with either winning. Just don't want to see either a Warriors or a Celtics title.

[MyUniBroDavis]

Why don't people think Monty should get some blame for what went down tonight? Getting your team prepared is a coach's job and they were woefully unprepared.

Monty clearly deserves part of the blame. His team got figured out over the course of 7 games by a drastically worse regular season team. When that happens, you never look good as coach.

Correct me if I’m wrong but the main thing was them changing their screen coverages to be more mixed and unpredictable (as in like, not dropping way more than switching or hedging or trapping) vs dropping mostly which the suns usually do the spain p and r to Great effect against over the last few games right?

I was watching spy family and it was like 60-27 so I didn’t catch the game, what happened

[jalengreen]

Watch on YouTube

Now that the series is over i can appreciate this game more.......prolly the first truly classic and iconic game b/w 2 superstars of this era (Kd, Kawhi, Steph like guys are part of this era but closer to the way out and I dont really count them) w. both at the absolute top of their games. These dont come around every day..........

a mavs v celtics finals matchup could produce another

[Gooner]

Great job Boston. This is one of the best playoffs I've seen in recent years. Proper teams are winning. Bucks were just outclassed and Giannis couldn't do nothing about it. Great players have to take over these games and he can't do it consistently due to his limited skillset. Boston is a team with no significat weakness and they deserved to go through.

Legacy damaging loss for CP, I know people love him on this board. It's hard to defend this. It shows once again the difference between a champion and someone who is just a great player, and please don't put CP ahead of great players who have the ring.

I believe that Warriors know how to handle Luka and the Mavs. They are still a team to beat.

[Gooner]

I'm gonna be hoping for a Heat-Mavs Finals, and I'd be fine with either winning. Just don't want to see either a Warriors or a Celtics title.

For me it's the opposite. Don't mind the Celtics or Warriors winning it all. Still prefer the Warriors because they are the best and most iconic team of this generation and for me they deserve another title to close their chapter. This one after Durant would be very important for their legacy.

[70sFan]

To be honest, I see Dallas being well equiped to play against Warriors. Maybe better than Suns - this should be fun series.

[70sFan]

Bucks were just outclassed and Giannis couldn't do nothing about it. Great players have to take over these games and he can't do it consistently due to his limited skillset.

Giannis had three 40+ games in that series...

Legacy damaging loss for CP, I know people love him on this board. It's hard to defend this. It shows once again the difference between a champion and someone who is just a great player, and please don't put CP ahead of great players who have the ring.

Legacy damaging game for 37 years old midget? I guess 1992 series was legacy damaging for Isiah Thomas, as he was only 33...

[jalengreen]

To be honest, I see Dallas being well equiped to play against Warriors. Maybe better than Suns - this should be fun series.

i agree, especially if the warriors underperform like they did against the grizz. i think the mavs' defense can have a strong series against golden state with the way they've played

i think ayton would've posed problems for the warriors but.. with the way the suns generally underperformed throughout the playoffs.. maybe not. who knows if they ever would've flipped the switch and played like they did in the regular season for longer than short stretches

[jalengreen]

Great job Boston. This is one of the best playoffs I've seen in recent years. Proper teams are winning. Bucks were just outclassed and Giannis couldn't do nothing about it. Great players have to take over these games and he can't do it consistently due to his limited skillset. Boston is a team with no significat weakness and they deserved to go through.

Legacy damaging loss for CP, I know people love him on this board. It's hard to defend this. It shows once again the difference between a champion and someone who is just a great player, and please don't put CP ahead of great players who have the ring.

I believe that Warriors know how to handle Luka and the Mavs. They are still a team to beat.

giannis was missing point blank layups in the 4th quarter that he makes on any other day. he just had a bad game, has nothing to do with his limited skillset. sure there are skills that he lacks but he lacked those same skills when he was dropping dominant 40 burgers on the same celtics defense

[ronnymac2]

I did not know much about Dallas before the playoffs. I knew they made trades and got rid of KP, but I didn't know what they were good at aside from having a supernova-potential guy in Luka.

Did you guys know they were sixth in defense this season? They were above average in every defensive factor aside from TOV%, and they were one of the best at defending the 3 (percentage and denying shots from beyond the arc). Finney-Smith, Bullock, and even my boy Ntilikina are a very good trio of perimeter defenders.

Obviously that's important when denying the 3-pointers of Wiggins, Klay, and Poole. Curry will get his, but if they can limit these other guys - and it seems they have the identity and defensive personnel to try - they can cut GSW's efficiency. GSW isn't exactly killer at pressuring the rim.

GSW is also dealing with a ton of important injuries that will affect them when deploying a defense against Luka. Payton, Porter, potentially Iggy all being out/compromised...who is the primary initial defender on Luka? I'm assuming it's Klay, but will he have the stamina at this point to defend a 40 MPG, 40 USG%, hyper-aggressive 22 y/o? Is he going to have legs when shooting 3's in games 3, 4, 5, 6, and/or 7?

Not as much of an issue for the younger Wiggins, but if Wiggins is defending, GSW loses/lessens his rebounding, which has been surprisingly good and useful this postseason (REB% waayy higher than anything he's ever shown - credit to Wiggins there).

I stated Dallas is slightly below league average at causing turnovers, which is GSW's Achilles heal and has been for seven years now. Are they lacking in that area to where they cannot take advantage of GSW's offensive weakness?

This should be a very interesting series.

[70sFan]

Am I the only one who sees how poorly trained perimeter players are at finding bigs inside? I've seen it in both Bucks and Suns series - Lopez/Ayton often could establish strong position down low in the paint but guards either ignored them or tried to pass the ball for 5 seconds. I know that defense has been superb, but it's not the excuse.

Teams can't use post game anymore, in part because of rules but mostly because they don't train these plays anymore as a team.