Offseason Plan

payitforward · Post #581 » by **payitforward** » Mon May 9, 2022 9:27 pm

No thanks on Lewis. In 1250 NBA minutes, he has shown absolutely nothing. Nor was he a good college player -- so I don't see what would make a person think that he has particularly "good potential."

Compare his Sophomore numbers against those of Cassius Winston, for example. Winston played against tougher competition in college & was far better across the board. TBH, I never understood why Lewis went so high.

Above all, I wouldn't give up a pick for him, any pick at all.

dobrojim · Post #582 » by **dobrojim** » Tue May 10, 2022 3:52 pm

DCZards wrote:Hey, doc. A few responses to your long post.

Don’t underestimate the value of a play making PG who can be a game manager and coach on the court. I know that’s old school but that’s why I’m a fan of guys like CP3 and Jrue Holiday. We need to take the responsibility for running the team off of Beal so that he can be a true SG.

I’d like to team Beal with a scorer with the size and length to play—and defend—both some SG and SF. Mathurin (Ariz.) and Brahman (Ohio St.) would be my targets in the draft (assuming we’re picking around 10)…although I could be convinced to go with a Dyson or Washington. Mathurin in particular is extremely strong and physical for a SG/SF. I saw some Jimmy Butler-like toughness and desire from him during March Madness. Gotta like that. Mathurin is also a good 3pt shooter.

You mention Rui’s need to improve (which all here seem to agree with) but fail to cite his prowess as a 3 pt shooter, which is a REAL asset in today’s NBA.

I’m on board with Oladipo. He's shown during the playoffs that he still got some game…when healthy. Oladipo might be available for cheap on a “show me” contract. And while the Zards need to trend younger (as PIF so often reminds us) it’s also important to sprinkle in a few experienced vets.

As much as I like, Bryant (hard worker, quality person) I’m probably not bringing him back. I’m gonna give Carey a chance to earn minutes as the 3rd center. And maybe sign a Bismarck Biyombo-type on the cheap since KP is almost certain to miss games. Then again it might not be a bad idea to resign TB for his scoring should KP miss a lot of games.

Bottom line: It will be interesting to see what a team built around Beal & KP, improving youngsters like Deni, Rui & Kispert, a lottery pick, better PG play, and a wiser, more experienced Wes Jr. looks like. Still not a top 4 or 5 team in the east…but maybe something to build on.

Also re a more talented PG, I've long felt that having an extremely high caliber defensive talent
at the PG makes everyone else's job on D so much easier. If your opp's PG is under constant pressure,
it's much easier for the rest of the team to do its job.

edit to add - watching these playoffs (and playoffs down through the years) it becomes
so much more clear that in order to score efficiently, it's so important to get live ball
turnovers and rebounds, especially long rebounds, off of missed shots. Offense is
very dependent on defense. Given how horrible we were defensively, improvement
there should be of primary concern.

FAH1223 · Post #583 » by **FAH1223** » Tue May 17, 2022 7:05 am

Read on Twitter

dckingsfan · Post #584 » by **dckingsfan** » Tue May 17, 2022 2:23 pm

The plan is to jump into the top 4 of the lottery! We need some luck tonight...

NatP4 · Post #585 » by **NatP4** » Tue May 17, 2022 2:59 pm

dckingsfan wrote:The plan is to jump into the top 4 of the lottery! We need some luck tonight...

I like this plan

Post #586 » by **nate33** » Tue May 17, 2022 3:47 pm

NatP4 wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:The plan is to jump into the top 4 of the lottery! We need some luck tonight...

I like this plan

It would be #soWizards for the franchise to get lucky in the lottery in a year when there aren't any true franchise talents at the top of the draft. If we moved into the top 2-4, and Chet was off the board, I'd probably look to trade down.

Post #587 » by **nate33** » Tue May 17, 2022 3:51 pm

A dream scenario would be to move up to #2 or #3, with OKC falling to #5. And then trade our #2 to OKC for #5 and #12. (OKC would presumably be trying hard to move up to where they can land one of the bigs rather than drafting Ivey or Sharpe around #5. They already have good young guards.)

We could draft Sharpe at #5 and still land Eason or Daniels at #12.

I'd probably shop Beal after that.

NatP4 · Post #588 » by **NatP4** » Tue May 17, 2022 3:56 pm

nate33 wrote:
NatP4 wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:The plan is to jump into the top 4 of the lottery! We need some luck tonight...

I like this plan

It would be #soWizards for the franchise to get lucky in the lottery in a year when there aren't any true franchise talents at the top of the draft. If we moved into the top 2-4, and Chet was off the board, I'd probably look to trade down.

I’m sure we would be dumb and pick Smith/Banchero/Ivey, but I’m certain Murray and Sharpe will be significantly better than all of those guys.

Holmgren is the only real prize at the top.

Like you posted above, dream scenario is jumping into 2-4 then moving back to get 2 of Murray/Sharpe/Daniels/Eason

queridiculo · Post #589 » by **queridiculo** » Tue May 17, 2022 3:56 pm

dckingsfan wrote:The plan is to jump into the top 4 of the lottery! We need some luck tonight...

Tonight?

I thought it's on the 23rd??

FAH1223 · Post #590 » by **FAH1223** » Tue May 17, 2022 3:57 pm

queridiculo wrote:
dckingsfan wrote:The plan is to jump into the top 4 of the lottery! We need some luck tonight...

Tonight?

I thought it's on the 23rd??

Yup. It's tonight. Wes is representing the team on stage. And the failed GM is the representative at the actual ping pong ball drawing.

payitforward · Post #591 » by **payitforward** » Tue May 17, 2022 9:04 pm

nate33 wrote:A dream scenario would be to move up to #2 or #3, with OKC falling to #5. And then trade our #2 to OKC for #5 and #12....

When I think of potential pick swaps, I usually do a first check of likely values by looking at http://nbasense.com/draft-pick-trade-value/2/kevin-pelton-2 -- not because I "believe in" Pelton's value scale but because a) you have to use something, otherwise you convince yourself of things that lack foundation or precedent, & b) there's research behind his scale -- he didn't simply make it up.

OTOH, I haven't seen the research, so I can't rely on it thoughtlessly -- although from his reputation & from other work of his I do take a high degree of confidence that at least he tried to make his scale as accurate as he could. If you have an espn "insider" account, you can learn more about the research than I know by reading this article about it: https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/19658707.

Of course, even if his scale is accurate, any particular set of values can only really summarize a range of events, & even in that case there will be outliers -- exceptions which occur for any number of reasons. Or, someone may be able to point to some other research which supports a different value scale & offers more convincing evidence of truth.

In the case of my suggested trade of our #10 to SA for their #s 20, 25 & 38, for example, we'd be getting back more than Pelton's scale would suggest was likely. It seems plausible all the same based on the assumption that SA wouldn't really want 4 rookies, in which case they wouldn't place much value on their lowest pick. Worth a try.

So too your idea of #2 & for #5 & #12 -- tho that's very far off Pelton's scale, which would suggest that for moving down 3 spots from 2 to 5 you would be compensated with the #21 pick in the draft not #12. Still... would be worth a try! If we move up tonight, that is....

9 and 20 · Post #592 » by **9 and 20** » Tue May 17, 2022 11:57 pm

Honest question - when was the last time we traded down? I can't really see it happening. If Terd wins a top pick, he's going to (publicly) pat himself on the back for earning it the right way.

dckingsfan · Post #593 » by **dckingsfan** » Wed May 18, 2022 12:21 am

So much for my off-season plan

9 and 20 · Post #594 » by **9 and 20** » Wed May 18, 2022 12:43 am

New plan - trade Beal to the Kings. Merge our two garbage teams into a single garbage team. Call us the Zard Kings. Our fearless leader Terd LeFerguson can call himself King Zard.

Chocolate City Jordanaire · Post #595 » by **Chocolate City Jordanaire** » Wed May 18, 2022 1:30 am

payitforward wrote:
Chocolate City Jordanaire wrote:...success with James Singleton coming from overseas....

Awright! A James Singleton reference.... Terrific player.

Here he is still playing in 2015 in the (then) D League:

Watch on YouTube

WHAT I WOULD DO (KNOWING THE WIZARDS PICK ) is ...

doclinkin · Post #596 » by **doclinkin** » Wed May 18, 2022 4:03 am

9 and 20 wrote:Honest question - when was the last time we traded down?

Um. Last year for Aaron Holiday and a 2nd rounder.

9 and 20 · Post #597 » by **9 and 20** » Wed May 18, 2022 12:28 pm

doclinkin wrote:
9 and 20 wrote:Honest question - when was the last time we traded down?

Um. Last year for Aaron Holiday and a 2nd rounder.

I'm a moron.

Still, if we got a top pick, I don't think we would have traded it.

If Beal wants out, would he go to the Blazers, and could they trade us their mid lottery pick for him? Portland or Sacramento I like for us as potential Beal landing spots. If he goes, though, we'll probably get Boston's garbage in return.

dckingsfan · Post #598 » by **dckingsfan** » Wed May 18, 2022 12:49 pm

9 and 20 wrote:New plan - trade Beal to the Kings. Merge our two garbage teams into a single garbage team. Call us the Zard Kings. Our fearless leader Terd LeFerguson can call himself King Zard.

The Kings are woefully short on forwards, getting the fourth pick might not land them one of Smith, Holmgren or Banchero - sad. This is a team that really should trade down (if they can - easy to say but harder to actually pull off).

Their depth at SF is Barnes/Harkless (and Harkless has been awful).
Their depth at PF is Lyles/Metu (enough said).

They need to move Holmes.
Their depth at SG is Holiday, Davis and disgruntled RFA DiVincenzo.

They are fairly solid at PG and that is about it.

payitforward · Post #599 » by **payitforward** » Wed May 18, 2022 2:51 pm

Our "garbage team":

In 2018-19 we went 32-50. Memphis went 33-49. We were -2.9 ppg vs the league. They were -2.6.

They got a new FO that Spring. So did we. It's 3 years later, & Memphis is a powerhouse, while the Washington Wizards this year were -3.4 ppg vs. the league.

That's right; we were worse than 3 years ago, not better. & the guys who propelled us to a 10-3 start (Trez & Dinwiddie) are long gone. 25-44 is how we continued through the season.

With our "new" personnel, we closed the season 7-10 -- which extends out to a 34-48 season. Only... one of the guys who played best in that stretch is heading back to Europe.

Plus, the only player we have who demonstrated last season that he is capable of playing more than 21 minutes a game while posting above average per-minute numbers is Porzingis -- & he has a gaudy history of injuries & has played 1350 minutes a year over the last 5 seasons.

Here's reality: pick up all our options, re-sign Anthony Gill for @$2m (wch is definitely a good idea), make a lackluster pick @#10, take someone with long-term potential @#56, & sign a FA PG in the off-season, & we'll win twenty-something games next year.

payitforward · Post #600 » by **payitforward** » Wed May 18, 2022 3:05 pm

IOW -- this is not a good team, to which you add a player in the draft so that you can keep growing. & add a player with the mle so you can shore up a position where maybe you're getting a little old. & maybe make a trade to balance your roster a little differently.

Nor is this a young team rebuilding itself -- like Houston or Detroit.

Nor is this an average team that is having some bum luck. No, the truth is that if you replaced every single player on this team with someone who is NBA average at his position, we'd be better not worse.

IOW, this is an awful team.

It's a team to which you add as much overall talent as you possibly can as quickly as you can & from as many directions as possible -- in the draft or by any other means. & it really doesn't matter who has to go in order to make that possible.

If Tommy can't manage the draft better than he has, then it's Tommy who has to go.