Who do you want us to take at #1?

[tiderulz]

What a fantastic position to be in. our young core is scary good. We caught a break here

that young core helped to a 2nd worst record.

[tiderulz]

case for Chet?(from reddit)https://www.reddit.com/r/OrlandoMagic/comments/us35x4/freshman_bpm_leaderboard_since_2010_1_zion/

Freshman BPM leaderboard since 2010: 1. Zion Williamson (18.7), 2. Anthony Davis (16.7), 3. Chet Holmgren (14.1), 4. Karl-Anthony Towns (13.1), 5. Evan Mobley (12.6)

Chet Holmgren shot 84% at the rim, 48% from midrange and 39% from 3, and was good for a TS% of 69.1%. Those are absolutely elite from every range.

Among players who shot at least 50 3s, that is good for the 2nd highest TS% from a lottery pick since 2008 (trailing Zion at 70.2%).

Without the 3PA requirement, it is still the 5th highest TS% from a lottery pick. His ridiculous efficiency at the rim was not just a product of getting dunks - he shot 70.5% on layups which is ridiculous. To compare, Mo shot 58.7% on layups in college, which is an enormous difference.

Don't overthink it.

it's going to be tough....there is no clear cut

my question would be, what bigs was he going against in that league? looking over the league, most nights he didnt play against someone over 6'7, so i would hope he would be efficient

[RichCollab]

Magic need to find their guy and deliver him. We should absolutely land the best player for our team this year.

If a trade back still guarantees we get our guy, than I’m cool with it. If not, just grab him at #1.

[basketballRob]

Chet and find a way to draft Sharpe as well

If the Magic gain the #2 and #12, who do you take at #12?


..

Probably Duren but I San Antonio might take him at 9.

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[tiderulz]

Chet and find a way to draft Sharpe as well

If the Magic gain the #2 and #12, who do you take at #12?


..

Probably Duren but I San Antonio might take him at 9.

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why Duren? we have WCJ and can keep Bamba if we want. We need better wings.

[3ddman23]

This one is tough for me. I honestly don't know.

I have said I'm ok with either of the top 4 but really they have to hit on this pick. It cant be a bust or a waste of pick. To me the person we pick doesn't necessarily have to be a superstar but they have to be a key piece for the future. This is what scares me about Chet. He has the most wow factor but i think with his frame I just get scared with him. No doubt he has the basketball iq and some skill but man is he rail thin( not to mention that damn hunch back).

I'm cool with Jabari and i don't see the magic drafting Paolo #1. So again i don't know what will happen but I think its between Chet and Jabari.

[BCS]

If the Magic gain the #2 and #12, who do you take at #12?


..

Probably Duren but I San Antonio might take him at 9.

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why Duren? we have WCJ and can keep Bamba if we want. We need better wings.

If we draft Jabari, then Sharpe, Mathurin or Malaki Branham at 12. Really would want one of Mathurin or Sharpe and would trade up even more if needed. We still have Cole, Ross, 2nd rd picks and future picks if needed to do another trade.

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[Magic_Kingdom]

My pick would be Jabari Smith at #1. I think he immediately makes the team better, adds the skill most lacking with the current roster (shooting), and would be a good fit with Franz, Fultz and Suggs.

I am deathly afraid Welt will take Chet, the player with the highest bust potential in the top 4. No one here can project whether Chet's stick-like frame will sustain the rigors of NBA basketball over an 82-game season, so why risk it? Especially when Isaac, the highest-paid player on your roster, has already missed 2 consecutive full seasons and the vast majority of his career with lower extremity injuries. I watched Chet in the NCAA tournament and he got pushed around by bigger, tougher bodies on Memphis and Arkansas. He didn't look the same as West Coast Conference Chet. I'm not saying he can't become a great NBA player, I'm just saying there's no reason to risk it at #1 with a player like Jabari available.

I can just picture the Weltman press conference in Chet's second season: "There's no timetable for Chet's return, we're taking our time, there's no rush, he's working on his balance, strengthening his core, making sure his body is right first and foremost before we bring him back."

[tiderulz]

Probably Duren but I San Antonio might take him at 9.

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why Duren? we have WCJ and can keep Bamba if we want. We need better wings.

If we draft Jabari, then Sharpe, Mathurin or Malaki Branham at 12. Really would want one of Mathurin or Sharpe and would trade up even more if needed. We still have Cole, Ross, 2nd rd picks and future picks if needed to do another trade.

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i would also include Agbaji. 6'5 with 6'10 wing span, so he can switch to bigger players, very good 3 pt shooter. think he drops in some rankings because he is a senior when other good players leave after 1 year. i think people are sleeping on him some.

[JTG_92940618]

When I step away from thinking about it, I usually end up favoring Jabari. I figure there's no reason to take the risk on a guy with Chet's body.

On the other hand, when I look more closely into it, I sort of see that Chet is actually a much better prospect. Broadly speaking, their stats are quite similar, but Chet blocks nearly 4 times as many shots per game and shoots about 30% better inside the arc. I'm not sure there's a single stat or aspect of the game where Jabari is clearly better than Chet like that.

This leaves me confused. I don't like the way Chet looks but do you really pass on the guy you think is the best talent because you think he might get injured, even if he doesn't have an injury history? That seems kind of unfair.

I also think about times in the past when conventional wisdom has turned. In 2018 for example, GMs (and the NBA public) were shy about drafting white Europeans early in the draft, regardless of their resume but now, post-Luka, I don't think that applies. Perhaps Chet is the twig that throws conventional wisdom on its head and plays a bunch of games with no injuries?

And then perhaps not.

It's rough - at this point in time, we're the poster franchise for taking drastic action to get off the treadmill. We had enough of safe and boring. If we want to continue in this fashion, I think we should take Chet - he's more "boom or bust" and less likely to land us just as an 8th seed 5 years from now... On the other hand, we've been mostly bad for a long time now so perhaps taking risks we can avoid might not be the best course of action for a franchise that is struggling for popularity.

I don't really have any answers. Right now, I would want to take Chet but I'll probably change my mind a lot between now and the draft. I think my point of view right is that we threw our safety blanket out the window when we traded Vuc and we should be trying our best to avoid buying another safety blanket. We should try to move on to bigger things.

[BCS]

why Duren? we have WCJ and can keep Bamba if we want. We need better wings.

If we draft Jabari, then Sharpe, Mathurin or Malaki Branham at 12. Really would want one of Mathurin or Sharpe and would trade up even more if needed. We still have Cole, Ross, 2nd rd picks and future picks if needed to do another trade.

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i would also include Agbaji. 6'5 with 6'10 wing span, so he can switch to bigger players, very good 3 pt shooter. think he drops in some rankings because he is a senior when other good players leave after 1 year. i think people are sleeping on him some.

I wouldn't be mad at Agbaji, I like him as well, I just have the other 3 above him and think at least Branham should be there. But if we choose Agbaji over Branham, wouldn't be upset.

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[rcklsscognition]

Smith or Chet will be the pick. Right now I'm leaning Smith because of Chet's body type, but I'm sure the team will do all the necessary research. Smith is a little too stiff for me, but he's impressive all around, great footwork on defense.

[MagicTownBaller]

I'm not too big of a fan of Chet, but at the end of the day, he is the best prospect with the highest upside. I think that's where we have to go.

Chet may be skinny, but I don't see anything to show he's injury prone. There are a lot of players that are skinny that come into the league and bulk up or dominate. KD came into the league as a twig and all the same complaints and he turned into a superstar. Dwight was a stick, same thing. Giannis was a stick, same thing. Rudy Gobert is still a stick, maybe a little better but same thing.

"Bet on Chet" or we could be "Sorry with Jabari"

[MagicTownBaller]

Smith or Chet will be the pick. Right now I'm leaning Smith because of Chet's body type, but I'm sure the team will do all the necessary research. Smith is a little too stiff for me, but he's impressive all around, great footwork on defense.

I do like Smith a lot actually, but he just doesn't give that number one pick flair to me. He reminds me too much of Rashard Lewis and that would be great if we had the 2 or 3 pick.

[DayofMourning]

There was a segment last night where they had Jabari, Chet and Paolo together and they asked them each why they should be the 1st overall pick.

Chet went 1st and had a nice answer. He talked about his versatility and all around game. Sounded intelligent.

Jabari went next and talked about how he planned on coming in and working hard and making the most of his ability and opportunity.

Then Paolo comes in and says because he's a superstar.....it sounded simple and low IQ. I was like, damn, boys a superstar huh? Well whoopty doo.

I've never been much on the Banchero bus as he isn't much of a defender and his offense is a bit overrated. That little interview showed a glimpse of why I don't think he quite measures up to the other guys.

[basketballRob]

Smith or Chet will be the pick. Right now I'm leaning Smith because of Chet's body type, but I'm sure the team will do all the necessary research. Smith is a little too stiff for me, but he's impressive all around, great footwork on defense.

I do like Smith a lot actually, but he just doesn't give that number one pick flair to me. He reminds me too much of Rashard Lewis and that would be great if we had the 2 or 3 pick.

Smith's not flashy but probably a better prospect than Jayson Tatum coming out. Fultz was the pick with flair in that draft.

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[tiderulz]

When I step away from thinking about it, I usually end up favoring Jabari. I figure there's no reason to take the risk on a guy with Chet's body.

On the other hand, when I look more closely into it, I sort of see that Chet is actually a much better prospect. Broadly speaking, their stats are quite similar, but Chet blocks nearly 4 times as many shots per game and shoots about 30% better inside the arc. I'm not sure there's a single stat or aspect of the game where Jabari is clearly better than Chet like that.

This leaves me confused. I don't like the way Chet looks but do you really pass on the guy you think is the best talent because you think he might get injured, even if he doesn't have an injury history? That seems kind of unfair.

I also think about times in the past when conventional wisdom has turned. In 2018 for example, GMs (and the NBA public) were shy about drafting white Europeans early in the draft, regardless of their resume but now, post-Luka, I don't think that applies. Perhaps Chet is the twig that throws conventional wisdom on its head and plays a bunch of games with no injuries?

And then perhaps not.

It's rough - at this point in time, we're the poster franchise for taking drastic action to get off the treadmill. We had enough of safe and boring. If we want to continue in this fashion, I think we should take Chet - he's more "boom or bust" and less likely to land us just as an 8th seed 5 years from now... On the other hand, we've been mostly bad for a long time now so perhaps taking risks we can avoid might not be the best course of action for a franchise that is struggling for popularity.

I don't really have any answers. Right now, I would want to take Chet but I'll probably change my mind a lot between now and the draft. I think my point of view right is that we threw our safety blanket out the window when we traded Vuc and we should be trying our best to avoid buying another safety blanket. We should try to move on to bigger things.

remember this about Chet's stats, his conference did not have tall or good big men, which allowed him to pad his stats somewhat.

[tiderulz]

I'm not too big of a fan of Chet, but at the end of the day, he is the best prospect with the highest upside. I think that's where we have to go.

Chet may be skinny, but I don't see anything to show he's injury prone. There are a lot of players that are skinny that come into the league and bulk up or dominate. KD came into the league as a twig and all the same complaints and he turned into a superstar. Dwight was a stick, same thing. Giannis was a stick, same thing. Rudy Gobert is still a stick, maybe a little better but same thing.

"Bet on Chet" or we could be "Sorry with Jabari"

honest question, was Porzingis injury prone until he had to play against NBA athletes? his body just couldnt seem to handle it night in and out

[Optimus_Steel]

My initial just scratching the surface analysis, I would take Jabari Smith. He just seems to have that type of body and game that is modern for the NBA, elite shooter, etc. Chet seems like a very talented player but I cant see guys of his frame staying healthy in the NBA with the way the game has evolved.

[GelbeWand09]

I have Chet as the clear No.1 but i like Jabari too. Paolo would be a nightmare for me

I just think Chet not only got the higher upside, but also a easier path to become a top impact player than the other 2. Because he got all the skills & BBIQ necessary already. He just needs to stay healthy & add some pounds. Jabari just lacks skills that are super hard to learn at this age (dribbling/driving & passing). Paolo's combination of lack of length & instincts are super hard to overcome too to be at least not a negative defender + his offense lacks alot too, despite his skills. 3P shot / is he explosive enough to get by a NBA defender? / offensive efficiency.

Chet needs to add mass, the one thing every player in the leaque does over time. The others need to learn or refine skills. Thats much harder to do.