2025 Minor League/Prospects Discussion Thread

[guvernator]

Atleast the top prospects are progressing well...sigh.

[vaff87]

Dunedin Blue Jays beat the Tampa Tarpons 1-0. Their pitchers combined for 9 innings 2 hits 0 runs 5 walks and 24(!) strikeouts.

[dagger]

Dunedin Blue Jays beat the Tampa Tarpons 1-0. Their pitchers combined for 9 innings 2 hits 0 runs 5 walks and 24(!) strikeouts.

The starter was Nick Frasso, 23, who threw three scoreless, hitless and K'd eight in his first start of the season. A fourth round pick in 2020, he didn't pitch that year, pitched only a bit last season before going out with UCL surgery (Not TJ). A blistering FB pitcher with a classic tall lean frame (6'5"), he hit 100 a few times tonight. Lets see if he can stay healthy and what he can do over an extended period. He's unrated by MLB Pipeline, not surprising based on his meagre record.

Next up was Dahian Santos, 19, who struck out 10 over four innings. He's our #28 prospect on MLB Pipeline,
.

Signed out of Acarigua, Venezuela, in 2019, Santos had his professional debut delayed by the lost ’20 season, but the right-hander finally debuted in the Florida Complex League in ’21. There, Santos pitched 35 1/3 innings before getting a taste of Single-A at the tail end of the season, where he was hit hard over five innings. Santos ended the season with a combined 5.58 ERA, striking out 58 batters over 40 1/3 innings.

Santos spent most of the winter at the club’s complex and added some good weight, though there’s still plenty of room for him to mature physically. Santos’ fastball sat in the low-90s in ’21, but he’s reaching up to 94 mph early in ’22 with the potential for more. His breaking ball is more of a “slurve” and has the potential to be an above-average secondary pitch while his changeup lags behind. The development of that changeup will be one of the biggest variables in his long-term development.

Gifted with an electric arm, Santos is still years away, but his raw potential is impressive. He’ll likely spend much of ’22 back in Single-A Dunedin, where the Blue Jays believe he’ll make good use of that brief and challenging ’21 stint. Santos is being built up as a starter now, but there is clear reliever upside down the road given his fastball and breaking ball.

Braden Scott, who doesn't profile like Frasso or Santos, cleaned up nicely. He's an undrafted, first year free-agent signee out of Indiana U. But he was part of this esxtraordinary performance so he earns his mention.

[dagger]

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[Balki-B]

Since it can be discouraging to talk about the Jays when they are in one of those prolonged, collective offensive slumps, let's focus in on a few guys in Buffalo who might either help the parent club on the margins or provide a tempting trade piece. I won't list Gabriel Moreno here. He's doing well after a late start. The Jays have five catchers right now on the 40 man roster and will have to clean that up when Danny Jansen gets back to the 26 man roster from his current rehab. Whether Moreno gets promoted, and the Jays go with Jansen/Kirk/Moreno using Jansen and especially Kirk as a DH, or they leave Moreno at Buffalo and go with Jansen/Kirk or Jansen/Kirk+ either of Collins or Heineman remains to be seen, but something has to give. This is about the other guys we might watch for promotion or trade purposes.

1. Adrian Hernandez, 22, RHP. This guy is coming to the majors before too long. He's a little fellow, a one-inning guy, but if he can throw a clean inning at the major league level, that would be an upgrade for the Jays right now. Since being promoted a month ago from NH, he's not given up a hit in 11 innings, let alone a run. Yesterday, he won his second game with a clean inning (and 2K). The issue with him is whether his great changeup will play at the big league level. His FB is sitting about 92 mph, and he really disguises his changeup with his FB profile. MLB Pipeline noted that he would face batters at the AAA level who have had more exposure to good changeups, so offering a good test for him. So far, he's passing with flying colours. He's on the 40-man roster.

2. Jordan Groshans, Bats R, 22, SS/3B. It's hard to see how the Jays could fit the 2017 first rounder in right now, and it wouldn't make much sense to employ him as a reserve. However, they will have to protect him in the next Rule 5 draft, and the guys in front of him at the MLB level are young and/or under control for a while, and there are others lower down in the system like Orelvis Martinez and Leo Jiminez, not to mention Otto Lopez and Samad Taylor at Buffalo who can play his positions. If the Jays want to make a splashy trade, he'd seem like a nice headliner, and if they paired him with someone like Alejandro Kirk, a really splashy trade. He has the bonus for an acquiring team of not being far from ready, so it could plug him into its MLB roster immediately, not wait 2-3 years, and that would help sell the deal to its fanbase. Right now, his slash is .300/.371/.444/.815. He needs another month to demonstrate his current production at this level is sustainable. Not on the 40-man roster.

3. Otto Lopez, Bats R. 23, 2B/OF. Nothing much has changed to dissuade teams that Lopez is a bona fide second tier prospect who isn't going to mash big time, but profiles offensively a bit like Santiago Espinal. He had a late start to the season, so needs another month to establish that his production is on point for a promotion. Current slash at BUF is .238/.370/.524/.894 based on only 21 ABs. Like Groshans, there is the question of how the Jays fit him in long-term with their current MLB lineup, and also with other infielders in the system soon to press up on the Rule 5 draft. He occupies a spot on the 40 man roster.

4. Samad Taylor, 23, 2B/LF, Bats R. The Jays expected to lose him in the Rule 5 draft this past winter, but of course, there was no draft because of the lockout. He hitting and power are streaky, his versatility and speed undeniable. His current slash is .245/.350/.451/.801 with five homers, 23 RBIs and 12 stolen bases. Has yet to commit an error and has cut down on his strikeouts.

Honorable mention to a pair of 26 year olds, reliever Kyle Johnson and outfielder (formerly a first round pick as an infielder) Logan Warmoth. The latter is finally been moved up the batting order to see if his good production can be sustained in higher leverage situations.

Probably an overpay to move Groshans+Kirk for a clean 8th or 9th inning man, but I’d do it.

[dagger]

Probably an overpay to move Groshans+Kirk for a clean 8th or 9th inning man, but I’d do it.

I can't imagine having to give up that much, or even one of those for a reliever, although Trevor Richards is making me nervous. Garcia already has me nervous. The most reliable arms in the pen are Romano, Mayza and Cimbar, and Charlie is quite capable of overusing those three until they begin to break down.

That said, the system is deep enough to make an upgrade move with, say, Lopez and/or other secondary or tertiary prospects one, or even a Maximo Castillo who was just promoted to Buffalo. When I talk about a splashy or very splashy move, I'm thinking of at least the rental of a *top* lefthanded bat and for very splashy, a really good major league asset under control for at least a couple more years. I mean if you are a GM needing a young catcher who can hit for decent average with a bit of power who can throw out a reasonable number of runners, Kirk profiles well. To me the Mendoza line in baseball this season is either .150 or even .100. And there are starting catchers hitting in that range. If you are a losing team with a clear need at C, Kirk has to look very attractive - a guy with lots of control left, and worthy of giving up something really interesting. Add a prospect like Groshans who is playing premier positions, has reached AAA and is hitting over .300 batting third in Buffalo's order, and I would expect much more than a clean inning reliever. (I assume the Jays wouldn't deal Jansen.)

The Jays do have an issue developing with Moreno and Groshans in particular. As I have noted, both are looking ready enough as prospects, but are playing positions where the Jays are stocked for the foreseeable future at the major league level. You could keep them at Buffalo all season, but they could also bring back assets that truly help the Jays this season. And with the situation at C and SS, there really is no risk if you deal either or both, or Kirk, that there is no one below them in the system to develop. Phil Clarke is showing more offence at NH and is considered a catcher/leader in the same mold as Jansen. Jimenez and Martinez lurk below Groshans. I wouldn't be surprised if Atkins is just waiting on a bad team to make a good controllable player available . That might be where Groshans might come in, or one of our young catchers, or both. No need to use them for a one-inning upgrade in the pen.

[Schad]

Probably an overpay to move Groshans+Kirk for a clean 8th or 9th inning man, but I’d do it.

It's an extreme overpay, particularly because relievers are so volatile. There are really only a handful of relievers in baseball that are reliably top-tier late innings guys year-on-year, and teams that have made a habit of overpaying trying to get those guys generally get really bad outcomes.

The Rockies over the past few years are a prime example: in one offseason they signed a lot of proven late-innings guys, and for the more than $100m they spent, they got sub-replacement-level performance.

https://thecomeback.com/mlb/the-colorado-rockies-106-million-bullpen-signings-are-a-disaster.html

[dagger]

Probably an overpay to move Groshans+Kirk for a clean 8th or 9th inning man, but I’d do it.

It's an extreme overpay, particularly because relievers are so volatile. There are really only a handful of relievers in baseball that are reliably top-tier late innings guys year-on-year, and teams that have made a habit of overpaying trying to get those guys generally get really bad outcomes.

The Rockies over the past few years are a prime example: in one offseason they signed a lot of proven late-innings guys, and for the more than $100m they spent, they got sub-replacement-level performance.

https://thecomeback.com/mlb/the-colorado-rockies-106-million-bullpen-signings-are-a-disaster.html

We're seeing two successful approaches to bullpen development, one, find the best proven assets via trade/free agency at minimal asset and dollar cost. Houston has the second best bullpen ERA, and that's the pathway it has taken, and the Jays follow that approach. The question is whether they identify the right talent, offer enough to attract the FAs they want, manage what they have well enough, etc etc. I don't think we're good enough practionners on that score. The other pathway is the one the Yankees have taken, basically developing relievers as relievers in their farm system and then hanging on to them. Green, King, Loaisaga, are all products of the farm system, although Green was originally a Detroit draft choice. The major exception is Chapman, but even he's been a Yankee through six seasons now. They build out the rest the FA/trade way. The Yankees have the best bullpen ERA. I'd like to see the Jays do a bit more DELIBERATE reliever development. Right now, of the first six relievers they use, only Mayza was internally developed, although Romano was a starter until they lost him in the Rule 5 draft and got him back. They are drafting a heck of a lot of pitchers in the first few rounds in 2020 and 2021 in particular, and not all of them project as starters, so I think this may be happening. The value of internal development is the you get a few years of dirt cheap control for talent that can be better than free agents who cost 5-10 times as much and being older, may well be more injury susceptible.

[bluerap23]

Orelivis watch: In month of May he has .295 avg .404 ob .659 slg
5 hr's. Still striking out, but upping his walks and contact. Encouraging stuff.

[Schad]

We're seeing two successful approaches to bullpen development, one, find the best proven assets via trade/free agency at minimal asset and dollar cost. Houston has the second best bullpen ERA, and that's the pathway it has taken, and the Jays follow that approach. The question is whether they identify the right talent, offer enough to attract the FAs they want, manage what they have well enough, etc etc. I don't think we're good enough practionners on that score. The other pathway is the one the Yankees have taken, basically developing relievers as relievers in their farm system and then hanging on to them. Green, King, Loaisaga, are all products of the farm system, although Green was originally a Detroit draft choice. The major exception is Chapman, but even he's been a Yankee through six seasons now. They build out the rest the FA/trade way. The Yankees have the best bullpen ERA. I'd like to see the Jays do a bit more DELIBERATE reliever development. Right now, of the first six relievers they use, only Mayza was internally developed, although Romano was a starter until they lost him in the Rule 5 draft and got him back. They are drafting a heck of a lot of pitchers in the first few rounds in 2020 and 2021 in particular, and not all of them project as starters, so I think this may be happening. The value of internal development is the you get a few years of dirt cheap control for talent that can be better than free agents who cost 5-10 times as much and being older, may well be more injury susceptible.

Although the Yankees' bullpen development is a bit more traditional, in that most of those relievers were starters until they weren't, rather than a deliberate choice to groom them as relievers:

Loaisiga - starter straight through to the majors.
King - starter straight through to the majors. Started as recently as last year.
Green - starter straight through to the majors. Moved to the 'pen largely full-time after a poor rookie season.
Schmidt - still a starter whenever he gets demoted.

[vaff87]

I think Moreno left the game after getting hit by a pitch today.

[dagger]

We're seeing two successful approaches to bullpen development, one, find the best proven assets via trade/free agency at minimal asset and dollar cost. Houston has the second best bullpen ERA, and that's the pathway it has taken, and the Jays follow that approach. The question is whether they identify the right talent, offer enough to attract the FAs they want, manage what they have well enough, etc etc. I don't think we're good enough practionners on that score. The other pathway is the one the Yankees have taken, basically developing relievers as relievers in their farm system and then hanging on to them. Green, King, Loaisaga, are all products of the farm system, although Green was originally a Detroit draft choice. The major exception is Chapman, but even he's been a Yankee through six seasons now. They build out the rest the FA/trade way. The Yankees have the best bullpen ERA. I'd like to see the Jays do a bit more DELIBERATE reliever development. Right now, of the first six relievers they use, only Mayza was internally developed, although Romano was a starter until they lost him in the Rule 5 draft and got him back. They are drafting a heck of a lot of pitchers in the first few rounds in 2020 and 2021 in particular, and not all of them project as starters, so I think this may be happening. The value of internal development is the you get a few years of dirt cheap control for talent that can be better than free agents who cost 5-10 times as much and being older, may well be more injury susceptible.

Although the Yankees' bullpen development is a bit more traditional, in that most of those relievers were starters until they weren't, rather than a deliberate choice to groom them as relievers:

Loaisiga - starter straight through to the majors.
King - starter straight through to the majors. Started as recently as last year.
Green - starter straight through to the majors. Moved to the 'pen largely full-time after a poor rookie season.
Schmidt - still a starter whenever he gets demoted.

Yes, I overemphasized development as a reliever, but internal still holds. And speaking of developing a reliever internally, Adrian Hernandez threw a clean inning with 2K to pick up his third save at BUF this afternoon. Still hasn't given up a run since being promoted. ERA remains at 0.00. It would be nice if they challenge him a bit more - he just seems to throw an inning or two a week, what with all the rainouts BUF has had.

[Schad]

Yes, I overemphasized development as a reliever, but internal still holds. And speaking of developing a reliever internally, Adrian Hernandez threw a clean inning with 2K to pick up his third save at BUF this afternoon. Still hasn't given up a run since being promoted. ERA remains at 0.00. It would be nice if they challenge him a bit more - he just seems to throw an inning or two a week, what with all the rainouts BUF has had.

No disagreement on internal development. It's why having a lot of high-upside arms is useful; even if many won't develop the necessary refinement to be starters, some of those that do not will become useful relievers. And you're much better off having younger, cheaper relievers than those mid-tier, $5-8m/year older dudes.

[dagger]

Yes, I overemphasized development as a reliever, but internal still holds. And speaking of developing a reliever internally, Adrian Hernandez threw a clean inning with 2K to pick up his third save at BUF this afternoon. Still hasn't given up a run since being promoted. ERA remains at 0.00. It would be nice if they challenge him a bit more - he just seems to throw an inning or two a week, what with all the rainouts BUF has had.

No disagreement on internal development. It's why having a lot of high-upside arms is useful; even if many won't develop the necessary refinement to be starters, some of those that do not will become useful relievers. And you're much better off having younger, cheaper relievers than those mid-tier, $5-8m/year older dudes.

The good news is the Jays have a pretty deep prospect pitching portfolio right now. Admittedly, you'd only consider Tiedemann a top of the rotation guy, but there are several who will likely make it to the majors with some team, eventually, even if it's just as a fringy in-for-a-cup-of-coffee guy like Hatch or Saucedo. Vancouver is where the pitching talent is currently aggregating - Robberse, Dallas, Palmer, Tiedemann (debuts today), Kloffenstein (he might be stabilizing a bit) and now Yosver Zulueta who had a pretty nice debut yesterday, flashing some mean stuff up to 100 on the radar gun, as well as a hard two seamer with nice movement. Zulueta was signed in 2019, almost immediately needed TJ surgery, missed the 2020 season because there was none, and has worked his way up to A+ now. He's 24. CJ Van Eyck is on the Vancouver roster, but out for the season with TJ surgery.

There is Adrian Hernandez and Kyle Johnson at BUF, Hayden Juenger and Luis Quoinones at NH, plus a few strong arms at Dunedin (Frasso, Santos, Ohashi; Eric Pardhino is on the roster, but always seems to have injury issues.)

https://www.milb.com/player/yosver-zulueta-691172

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[Schad]

I don't know that the overall depth is anything special, but Tiedemann is. There are a number of potential relievers among the rest, but Tiedemann has a good chance at being a frontline starter, and his timeline is suddenly looking more 2024 than 2026.

[vaff87]

I don't know that the overall depth is anything special, but Tiedemann is. There are a number of potential relievers among the rest, but Tiedemann has a good chance at being a frontline starter, and his timeline is suddenly looking more 2024 than 2026.

It’s hard to get your hopes up for a pitching prospect, though.

[bluerap23]

I don't know that the overall depth is anything special, but Tiedemann is. There are a number of potential relievers among the rest, but Tiedemann has a good chance at being a frontline starter, and his timeline is suddenly looking more 2024 than 2026.

It’s hard to get your hopes up for a pitching prospect, though.

Manoah worked out pretty great.

Zulueta is looking pretty damn impressive. 31K in 17 innings.

[dagger]

Palmer and Kloffenstein have been promoted to New Hampshire.


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[dagger]

Yesterday's Buffalo game was kind of fun. Won 13-12 in 11 innings. It was what I liken to a prospect win rather than a win largely carried by the career minor large types. First, Thomas Hatch had his best start of the season - six innings of no-hit ball, one walk, 6K while the offence led by Moreno, Taylor and Groshans staked the team to a 7-0 lead. But the bullpen - Francis, Holland and Spraker - give up nine runs in innings 7 and 8. In the bottom of the eighth, Buffalo ties it a 9-9, In the tenth, with the automatic runner at 2B, Syracuse scores two off Spraker. Buffalo ties in it in the bottom of the 10th when Moreno drives in two. On to the 11th, the Syracuse running on second to start the inning tries to be cute and steal third, thrown out by Moreno. With bases empty and one out, Adrian Hernandez Ks one and induces a groundout. On to the bottom half of the 11th, Samad Taylor starts on 2B. Otto Lopez, grounds the ball to the 3B, whose throw pulls the 1B off the bag and down the line a bit, but Taylor goes all the way around on the play to score the winning run. So, a lot of prospect content. Moreno was 4-5 with a homer, Jordan Groshans was 1-2 with a walk before he was hit by a pitch and removed from the game (hopefully it's not serious because he raised his average to .357). Lopez and Taylor were 2-4, Logan Warmoth was 2-5.

Interesting as well from a prospect perspective, on Friday, Maximo Castillo had his best start in a long time to launch his promotion to AAA. Seven innings of two-hit ball with two walks and 8K. He's still just 23, so not out of the question he gets to the majors somewhere sometime.