If Jimmy Butler keeps this level and wins championship

[migya]

Jimmy Butler is playing at a level that is probably the best this playoffs of any player. His two way performance is reminiscent of Jordan. If he keeps this up for the entire playoffs and his team wins the championship where would this rank among post season performances in history on a championship team and among carry jobs, as his teammates have dropped their level?

[dygaction]

maybe 19 Kawhi

[Cavsfansince84]

I see it more interesting in where he could land in an all time sense. Maybe top 60 in the next project. Some would probably argue top 45.

[Colbinii]

maybe 19 Kawhi

It's much better than Kawhi's, especially because his cast is a bit worse and his impact is significantly more.

I'd put it up with the best of LeBron and Jordan as greatest perimeter player post-seasons runs ever.

[jalengreen]

i don't know about a specific rank, but if he could somehow keep it up against this celtics defense when they add smart/horford back into the lineup, which even KD and Giannis couldn't.. legendary

[falcolombardi]

if he wins a ring his reputation will probably shot up, partially cause his older bulls or minnesota seasons are retroactively valued more (which may as well be correct, just saying that when s player wins, his not winning seasoms retroactively get more favorable views)

i think a ring winning butler probably ends up with a comparable reputation to kawhi down the road and ahead of george or even harden (correctly or not, that is a different question)

[dygaction]

maybe 19 Kawhi

It's much better than Kawhi's, especially because his cast is a bit worse and his impact is significantly more.

I'd put it up with the best of LeBron and Jordan as greatest perimeter player post-seasons runs ever.

Sure if he can keep playing like the game 1, but Jimmy is super inconsistent scoring wise. You will not know whether he is going to give you 15 or 45 in a game while you can expect LeBron/Jordan to give you from 30 to 50.

[falcolombardi]

i would worry about him running out of gas like it happened in 2020 finals, against a team like boston miami would need all it can get from butler

[RCM88x]

It would definitely be one of the greatest postseason runs of all time and right there with the best Lebron and Jordan years. Do I think it is sustainable? Absolutely not but weirder things have happened I guess.

[Colbinii]

maybe 19 Kawhi

It's much better than Kawhi's, especially because his cast is a bit worse and his impact is significantly more.

I'd put it up with the best of LeBron and Jordan as greatest perimeter player post-seasons runs ever.

Sure if he can keep playing like the game 1, but Jimmy is super inconsistent scoring wise. You will not know whether he is going to give you 15 or 45 in a game while you can expect LeBron/Jordan to give you from 30 to 50.

Jimmy has scored less than 20 just once in 11 games.

Previous seasons--of course, but the premise of the thread is if Jimmy keeps up this level of play.

[dygaction]

It's much better than Kawhi's, especially because his cast is a bit worse and his impact is significantly more.

I'd put it up with the best of LeBron and Jordan as greatest perimeter player post-seasons runs ever.

Sure if he can keep playing like the game 1, but Jimmy is super inconsistent scoring wise. You will not know whether he is going to give you 15 or 45 in a game while you can expect LeBron/Jordan to give you from 30 to 50.

Jimmy has scored less than 20 just once in 11 games.

Previous seasons--of course, but the premise of the thread is if Jimmy keeps up this level of play.

I was based on what I think might happen, Bam or Herro can help take over a few games here and there as otherwise it is a complete outlier for JB. If he keeps .63TS% / +13.8BPM and carries Heat to a championship, it might be the greatest performance ever, as he does not have a Pippen on the team. TBH, I am still a big doubter and think he benefited from not being doubled enough. Who would have thought .394TS% 14.5ppg player from last season will be MJ/LeBron this year.

[tsherkin]

maybe 19 Kawhi

It's much better than Kawhi's, especially because his cast is a bit worse and his impact is significantly more.

I'd put it up with the best of LeBron and Jordan as greatest perimeter player post-seasons runs ever.

Throwing this postseason into perspective: 29.8 ppg, 5.4 apg and 2.3 spg (leading the playoffs) in 37.8 mpg, on 63.3% TS, 132 ORTG, 6.8% TOV and +9.5 OBPM.

If he maintains this, then you start to look at certain guys, sure.

Jordan's career average in the playoffs is 33.4 ppg, 5.7 apg and 2.1 spg on 56.8% TS, 9.4% TOV, +8.8 OBPM

1989: 34.8 ppg, 7.6 apg, 2.5 spg, 60.2% TS, 12.2% TOV, 120 ORTG, +9.1 OBPM
1990: 36.7 ppg, 6.8 apg, 2.8 spg (led playoffs), 59.2% TS, 10.1% TOV, 120 ORTG, +10.2 OBPM
1991: 31.1 ppg, 8.4 apg, 2.4 spg, 60.0% TS, 8.9% TOV, 127 ORTG, +10.5 OBPM
1992: 34.5 ppg, 5.8 apg, 2.0 spg, 57.1% TS, 10.9% TOV, 115 ORTG, +8.3 OBPM
1993: 35.1 ppg, 6.0 apg, 2.1 spg, 55.3% TS, 7.0% TOV, 119 ORTG, +9.7 OBPM

So, if his postseason ended right now and stayed this way, there's 100% an argument that statistically, this stands with Jordan's postseason. The volume isn't there, the passing isn't quite the same (particularly compared to peak Jordan playoff runs), but with that hella-low TOV rate and his scoring efficiency, what he's providing his team has been absurdly impressive. We're 10 games in, so we'll have to wait and see... but to be fair, Jordan didn't have a 10-game postseason that's quite matched this either. He's had a couple of them with higher b-ref OBPM, but Butler's rocking a +9.5. That's not a common level of performance by any stretch of the imagination.

Okay. Lebron time.

28.7 ppg, 7.2 apg, 116 ORTG, 58.3% TS, 13.0% TOV, +7.6 OBPM. He's a .242 WS/48 dude in the playoffs. Jordan's a .255 WS/48 PS guy. Butler's at .354 WS/48 in this postseason. Jordan peaked at .333 in 91 (and also passed the .300 threshold in 96 at .306). Lebron was at .399 in 09 and hasn't reached .300+ WS/48 in the playoffs since.

Just to throw some perspective on the matter. WS/48 and b-ref's OBPM aren't really be-all, end-all stats, just throwing in some extra things for the sake of discussion.

I guess I haven't really been doing this with MPG or points-per-100 factored in, but you get some of that with the ORTG and the OBPM and all that. Either way, Butler's having a wild-ass postseason run so far this season.

WE've seen some big things from LBJ before, though. I'll highlight a couple.

09: 35.3 ppg (PS high), 7.3 apg, 128 ORTG, 61.8% TS, 8.7% TOV, +12.8 OBPM (highest in the playoffs), .399 WS/48
14: 27.4 ppg, 4.8 apg, 124 ORTG, 66.8% TS, 12.9% TOV, +8.5 OBPM (highest in the playoffs)
17: 32.8 ppg, 7.8 apg, 125 ORG, 64.9% TS, 13.7% TOV, +7.7 OBPM
18: 34.0 ppg (PS high), 9.0 apg, 121 ORTG, 61.9% TS, 13.5% TOV, +10.1 OBPM (PS high)

Other notes... this focuses on offense mostly. And Butler actually rates out really nicely in DBPM as well. So let's look at DBPM and total BPM as well.

Butler's at +4.3 DBPM in the PS right now, and remember, +9.5 OBPM, both of which lead the PS so far. So he's at +13.8 BPM this postseason.

Lebron's been at +10 or better in the playoffs 9 times. He was at +17.5 in 2009 (!!). +12.7 in 2018. So Butler's current run, using that particular stat, looks about as good as 2018 Lebron and better than anything other than that ridiculous 2009 run. Obviously, this is a fairly limited, box-score-centric picture, but we have to see all the stuff which favors Butler as well! MJ only has 3 seasons where he WASN'T at +10 or better in the playoffs, and the other three were +9.5 as a rookie (led the playoffs), +9.9 in 97 and +9.0 in 1998 (led the playoffs), for some context. He had 5 in a row at +12.1 or better from 87-91, rocking +12.7, +12.2, +13.7 (!!), and +14.6 (!!!).

Quick look at b-ref VORP.

Butler's at +1.7 over 10 games so far.

Lebron's matched or exceeded that in 12 seasons, with three of them at +3.0 or better. In 2010, over 11 games, he was at +1.6, for some context. +2.9 in 09, +3.1 and +3.0 in 12 and 13. +2.7 in 2016. +2.4 in 2020. +3.4 in 2018. Jordan has 8 seasons of +2.0 or better, but never hit or passed +3.0, topping out at +2.9. He was at +2.7 or higher from 90-93 and at +2.4 for each season from 96-98. We'll see how the rest of Butler's postseason goes. Jordan was at +2.5 and +2.7 in 89 and 90, playing 17 and 16 games, just to set some context for what happens if Butler doesn't play all the way into the Finals.






Phew!

Very number-heavy, and none of them super definitive, just wanted to add some extra texture to the topic!

[Heej]

Jimmy Butler has actually shown the ability to have some ridiculous peaks in games within a series. Man's outplayed LeBron for like 2 games in 2020. But his performance is very rangy. I don't expect it to continue at this level by any means. He'll have a strong regression to the mean as per usual

[jalengreen]

Jimmy Butler has actually shown the ability to have some ridiculous peaks in games within a series. Man's outplayed LeBron for like 2 games in 2020. But his performance is very rangy. I don't expect it to continue at this level by any means. He'll have a strong regression to the mean as per usual

definitely some crazy peaks. i would say, though, that IMO lebron only got outplayed in g3 and was the better player in all other games of that finals series

[sp6r=underrated]

if he wins a ring his reputation will probably shot up, partially cause his older bulls or minnesota seasons are retroactively valued more (which may as well be correct, just saying that when s player wins, his not winning seasoms retroactively get more favorable views)

i think a ring winning butler probably ends up with a comparable reputation to kawhi down the road and ahead of george or even harden (correctly or not, that is a different question)

I enjoy watching Butler and dislike watching Harden. I have a lot more respect for Butler than Harden but man it will annoy me when thread start popping up ranking Harden over Butler.

[LukaTheGOAT]

I think it would probably best the greatest PS run ever that resulted in a championship for a perimeter player outside of MJ and Lebron. I would even favor it ahead of 84 and 86 Bird I imagine.

[LA Bird]

I think it would probably best the greatest PS run ever that resulted in a championship for a perimeter player outside of MJ and Lebron. I would even favor it ahead of 84 and 86 Bird I imagine.

How about 1976 Dr J? It was only 2 series but statistically, that title run was better than any besides 91 Jordan.

[rate_]

maybe 19 Kawhi

Jimmy's advanced stats blows 19 Kawhi away:

22 Jimmy: 30/8/5/2 | 33.1 PER | 13.8 BPM | 63.3% TS | .354 WS/48
19 Kawhi: 31/9/4/2 | 27.9 PER | 10.1 BPM | 61.9% TS | .249 WS/48

Comparing their series individually:

ECQF
22 Jimmy: 31/8/5/3 | 34.4 PER | 63.6% TS | .386 WS/48
19 Kawhi: 28/7/3/1 | 30.2 PER | 67.9% TS | .310 WS/48

ECSF
22 Jimmy: 28/8/6/2 | 30.1 PER | 60.5% TS | .299 WS/48
19 Kawhi: 35/10/4/1 | 33.5 PER | 63.4% TS | .276 WS/48

ECF
22 Jimmy: 41/9/5/4/3 | 51.6 PER | 76.2% TS | .581 WS/48 (1 game)
19 Kawhi: 30/10/4/2 | 26.4 PER | 57.4% TS | .194 WS/48

[rate_]

I think it would probably best the greatest PS run ever that resulted in a championship for a perimeter player outside of MJ and Lebron. I would even favor it ahead of 84 and 86 Bird I imagine.

How about 1976 Dr J? It was only 2 series but statistically, that title run was better than any besides 91 Jordan.

22 Jimmy: 11 G | 30/8/5/2 | 33.1 PER | .354 WS/48 | 13.8 BPM | 63.3% TS
76 Erving: 13 G | 35/13/5/2/2 | 32.0 PER | .321 WS/48 | 13.6 BPM | 61.0% TS

Jimmy is just ridiculous right now

[rate_]

Jimmy Butler has actually shown the ability to have some ridiculous peaks in games within a series. Man's outplayed LeBron for like 2 games in 2020. But his performance is very rangy. I don't expect it to continue at this level by any means. He'll have a strong regression to the mean as per usual

Yeah, there's usually a high variance among his performances but this is like the 1st time I've seen him string along a 10+ game stretch of super elite otherworldly play.