Draft Thread - Kings move up to #4

[BoogieTime]

Yup.

Monte must be feeling the hot seat due to his own contract/extension situation. The FO has given a directive to win now since last season. Hired Brown (not exactly a rebuild coach). I will be shocked if the pick wasn’t discussed in trade talks.

Everyone on this team is on the table + pick.

Monte will need to put on his big boy cap and start making moves soon.

We discussed John Collins months ago so might as well revisit what such a trade would look like:

4 / Barnes for Collins /16


Thoughts?

I can be wrong but I don’t think Collins is worth #4

Atlanta would need to come up with another top 10ish pick with that 16

[jazanetti]

Paolo, Chet, and Smith are going 1, 2, 3 in some order or another. There's a big gap between those 3 and everyone else (I happen to think there's also a pretty sizable gap between 1/2 and 3, but that's another story). There may be an interesting question of paying future draft capital to move up (#4 + top 4 protected 2023 for #3 or #2?).

My take on the next handful:
- Ivey: No thanks. Ivey's weak playmaking (3.9 assists per 40) means he's a either a SG or a combo guard. Problem is his shooting is suspect. 26% as a frosh turned into 36% last year, but there's a catch: he looked great early in the season, but shot like dog **** starting in conference play. November, December, January he shot 43%, 47%, and 42% from 3pt range, respectively. February and March? 18%, 33%. The Kings need off ball spacers around Fox and Sabonis.

- Griffin: I was pretty clear in the other thread. Hard no. Shooting looks great, but the defense is super questionable. Gives me scary McLemore vibes with his utter lack of anything else beyond shooting.

- Murray: I think he's a target if you move back, but I wouldn't take him at 4. Way too old (almost 22 at draft time) really cuts down the potential and if he's that old I'd want to see him dominating. I thought he was pretty good on offense (not a great playmaker) and just so-so on defense. I see his ceiling as decent role player so that lack of defense makes me say no.

The 2 guys I'd look at (and probably take 1 or the other):

1) Sharpe. Fluid, athletic, and good shooter. Ranked #1 in next year's freshman class, but reclassified. Past rankings have been overall solid in the past: viewtopic.php?p=97715700#p97715700. I think he's got superstar potential and given the historical rankings his floor is probably "decent player"

2) Eason. He's a bit on the older side (not Keegan Murray old, though), but I think the difference I see between him and Murray is 2 fold:
a) He was dominant defensively
b) His characteristics point to elite role player as a floor (elite defense + already a good shooter)


In the end I'd probably gamble on high end talent and take Sharpe. Eason will probably be better sooner, but IMO you take BPA this high. Sharpe is clear BPA.

I'm a little nervous that Sharpe could go top 3, and Banchero could fall to 4.

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If that happens I'll be the happiest man in the world.
Paolo has everything to be franchise player. His floor is Tobaias at least.
I like Sharpe either, while it's so risky.
And I'd definitely say no to give up #4 for Grant or Collins.
Fox + #4 for Mitchell?

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[mg]

Mitchell + Ivey would be a good fit but what happens to Fox?

If Fox is in the long term plans then I'm guessing the high upside kid Sharpe is the pick. I would *not* trade the pick for a veteran on big contract. Monte might be on the clock but with this new lottery system it's really difficult to get into the top 4. Long term the best bet is to make the pick and you might end up with a future star. Daniels is the other high upside kid but 4 is probably a little too high for him. Someone like Eason might be a top end roleplayer but you need to be shooting for the moon with a top 4 pick.

[LightTheBeam]

I'm a little nervous that Sharpe could go top 3, and Banchero could fall to 4.

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If that happens I'll be the happiest man in the world.
Paolo has everything to be franchise player. His floor is Tobaias at least.
I like Sharpe either, while it's so risky.
And I'd definitely say no to give up #4 for Grant or Collins.
Fox + #4 for Mitchell?

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As someone who didn't watch enough college, can someone explain me the Paolo hype. I compared his stats to Marvin Bagely, Bagley was far superior in college.

They seem to have the same weakness. Only go one direction, bad defender, Inconsistent shooter. I get Banchero is the superior passer but what else am I missing? I have ptsd when it comes to this kind of duke big man.


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[codydaze]

The problem is what are we getting for Fox?

Exactly why I believe Monte and his staff need to make answering that question a priority before draft night. Jaden Ivey will be sitting right there for the taking. He gives you a lot of what Fox does, he's 4 years younger and a hell of a lot cheaper. Oh and by the way he's a SG so now Monte can maximize last year's pick and get better in the back court.

I understand the thought but I'm just not high enough on Ivey to move Fox. I think Ivey has a lot of question marks and if you make that move you risk setting us back yet again.

[City of Trees]

I'm a little nervous that Sharpe could go top 3, and Banchero could fall to 4.

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If that happens I'll be the happiest man in the world.
Paolo has everything to be franchise player. His floor is Tobaias at least.
I like Sharpe either, while it's so risky.
And I'd definitely say no to give up #4 for Grant or Collins.
Fox + #4 for Mitchell?

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As someone who didn't watch enough college, can someone explain me the Paolo hype. I compared his stats to Marvin Bagely, Bagley was far superior in college.

They seem to have the same weakness. Only go one direction, bad defender, Inconsistent shooter. I get Banchero is the superior passer but what else am I missing? I have ptsd when it comes to this kind of duke big man.


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When I look at Banchero I see a blend of Carmelo Anthony and Aaron Gordon. He's built more like Gordon without the vertical but a bit more hip fluidity. Footwork and jumper reminds me of Melo. My fear is Banchero turns into a chucker who shoots a low %. Definitely a boom or bust player in my book.

[rpa]

When I look at Banchero I see a blend of Carmelo Anthony and Aaron Gordon. He's built more like Gordon without the vertical but a bit more hip fluidity. Footwork and jumper reminds me of Melo. My fear is Banchero turns into a chucker who shoots a low %. Definitely a boom or bust player in my book.

I agree on the Melo comparison, but with an added way: Melo was a super underrated passer/playmaker and Paolo is too. Case in point: Paolo averaged the same number of assists per 40 as Ivey did.

In fact, that playmaking ability (combined with a few other things*) makes me believe that Paolo's floor is pretty damn high. The part I worry about with him is more his defense--both in a vacuum and how it fits with Sabonis.

* The other things:
- A good steal rate for a big man
- OK shooting numbers for his position (34% from 3pt range on over 3 attempts/game; 73% from the line)

[rpa]

I hadn't realized this at the time, but just now noticing that Sharpe is pretty damn old. He's older than a couple of the lottery freshman (Duren, Griffin) and about the same age as some others (Sochen, Jabari, Dieng). Not saying that completely changes my view, but it definitely adds some perspective.

Why's this matter? There's a history of high ranking players being a year (or more) older than most of their class contemporaries and busting out in the league. Josh Jackson is (IMO) a great example of this. He and Fox were both freshman when drafted but Fox was average age for the class (19 1/2, born in December), but Jackson was nearly a year older (born in February). Shabazz Muhammad is another great example--drafted after his freshman year of college, but was already 20 1/2.

Why's the age actually matter? Because bodies mature through 18, 19, 20-ish. A year of body development can give a good player enough of an edge to look really good or great--but when those same players get to the league that body advantage is gone. It's a similar reason to why you draft for skills and not for athleticism (unless the athleticism is top 1% of the league).

[City of Trees]

I hadn't realized this at the time, but just now noticing that Sharpe is pretty damn old. He's older than a couple of the lottery freshman (Duren, Griffin) and about the same age as some others (Sochen, Jabari, Dieng). Not saying that completely changes my view, but it definitely adds some perspective.

Why's this matter? There's a history of high ranking players being a year (or more) older than most of their class contemporaries and busting out in the league. Josh Jackson is (IMO) a great example of this. He and Fox were both freshman when drafted but Fox was average age for the class (19 1/2, born in December), but Jackson was nearly a year older (born in February). Shabazz Muhammad is another great example--drafted after his freshman year of college, but was already 20 1/2.

Why's the age actually matter? Because bodies mature through 18, 19, 20-ish. A year of body development can give a good player enough of an edge to look really good or great--but when those same players get to the league that body advantage is gone. It's a similar reason to why you draft for skills and not for athleticism (unless the athleticism is top 1% of the league).

Wow I didn't realize Sharpe was playing as a fifth year senior. Great call out.

Still at 18, soon to be 19, he is young from an NBA level perspective however a fifth year senior absolutely has an advantage over other high schoolers.

[rpa]

Still at 18, soon to be 19, he is young from an NBA level perspective however a fifth year senior absolutely has an advantage over other high schoolers.

Yeah, and that's the real problem with Sharpe. The only tape you have on him is against HSers and--at least for his most recent year--he's a year older than most of them are. I guess you could look at tape from the previous season since the age would better align, but then you're left with even less tape on a guy with very little to begin with.

[blind prophet]

Yup.

Monte must be feeling the hot seat due to his own contract/extension situation. The FO has given a directive to win now since last season. Hired Brown (not exactly a rebuild coach). I will be shocked if the pick wasn’t discussed in trade talks.

Everyone on this team is on the table + pick.

Monte will need to put on his big boy cap and start making moves soon.

We discussed John Collins months ago so might as well revisit what such a trade would look like:

4 / Barnes for Collins /16


Thoughts?

I can be wrong but I don’t think Collins is worth #4

I don't think he is, also I have Barnes as positive value as an expiring.

[blind prophet]

Still at 18, soon to be 19, he is young from an NBA level perspective however a fifth year senior absolutely has an advantage over other high schoolers.

Yeah, and that's the real problem with Sharpe. The only tape you have on him is against HSers and--at least for his most recent year--he's a year older than most of them are. I guess you could look at tape from the previous season since the age would better align, but then you're left with even less tape on a guy with very little to begin with.

Watch him refuse to work out with us...That would make it even worse.

This is only theme related, not the same. But Remember when everyone thought we should of taken Mudiay?

Do you dare draft him if he refuses to work out for us?

[rpa]

Watch him refuse to work out with us...That would make it even worse.

This is only theme related, not the same. But Remember when everyone thought we should of taken Mudiay?

Do you dare draft him if he refuses to work out for us?

If you think he's clearly BPA and well ahead of your next guy then yes, you do.

[LightTheBeam]

Still at 18, soon to be 19, he is young from an NBA level perspective however a fifth year senior absolutely has an advantage over other high schoolers.

Yeah, and that's the real problem with Sharpe. The only tape you have on him is against HSers and--at least for his most recent year--he's a year older than most of them are. I guess you could look at tape from the previous season since the age would better align, but then you're left with even less tape on a guy with very little to begin with.

Watch him refuse to work out with us...That would make it even worse.

This is only theme related, not the same. But Remember when everyone thought we should of taken Mudiay?

Do you dare draft him if he refuses to work out for us?

I'll be curious if he decides to workout for anyone. If he doesn't do any workouts its going to be a major red flag.

Just because you are the #1 recruit out of HS, doesn't mean jack when it comes to the draft. Morant wasn't in the top 100, Lamelo Ball was #21, Trae Young was #23. But I remember Harrison Barnes was #1, Marvin Bagley was #1, Harry Giles was #1, Skal was #2.

Him not playing in college scares the **** out of me. But if we do pick him at 4, I'll assume Monte has fully vetted and had a chance to work with him.

[Silver Man]

As of right now my order for us is:

Sharpe
Murray
Ivey

Feel like Monte might lean away from Sharpe because of the uncertainty of Sharpe and Monte's future.

[BoogieTime]

As of right now my order for us is:

Sharpe
Murray
Ivey

Feel like Monte might lean away from Sharpe because of the uncertainty of Sharpe and Monte's future.

It’s been leaked to the press the Kings were looking at players to help them now (albeit before they jumped).

Still I’d be surprised if we spent the totality of this pick guessing on a the potential of a kid, given the win now approach of owner, now FO, and team make up

[SacKingZZZ]

Pistons fan here that has been living in the Bay for a while now. I would love to trade Jerami Grant to you guys for a package of Holmes and #4. I've seen proposals that included Davion as well but that seems a tad greedy lol. You guys would get your "Big 3" and we could draft Ivey and Sharpe or Keegan Murray.

Maybe something like

4 + Holmes + Holiday + 37

For

Grant + 5

But no way in hell am I trading #4 for Grant. Hes not that guy.

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Lol my rationale for the trade was that it would be worth moving up to #4 to get Ivey, but he might be there anyways. I think you are severely undervaluing Grant, but I think he is worth way more than moving up just one spot from 4 to 5.

The Pistons let Grants deal linger and McNair will have max space at this point next summer and I think they will be targeting him with it.

[City of Trees]

I posted this in the Holla at me thread over on T&T


Kings trade:
#4
Harrison Barnes
M. Harkless

Kings receive:
John Collins
Devin Vassell
#16
SA 2023 1st (top 3)


ATL trades
John Collins
#16

ATL receives
#9
Harrison Barnes


SA trades
#9
Devin Vassell
2023 1st (top 3)

SA receives
#4
M. Harkless


Why?
Vivek doesn't allow the Kings GM time to draft and develop so they trade the pick. Kings get two starters and a future pick. ATL moves off Collins while climbing into the top 10. Spurs make the jump for whoever they want at 4.

[rpa]

Just because you are the #1 recruit out of HS, doesn't mean jack when it comes to the draft. Morant wasn't in the top 100, Lamelo Ball was #21, Trae Young was #23. But I remember Harrison Barnes was #1, Marvin Bagley was #1, Harry Giles was #1, Skal was #2.

Previous 16 #1 rated RSCI prospects coming out of HS:
Chet, Cade, Wiseman, Barrett, Bagley, Josh Jackson, Ben Simmons, Mudiay, Wiggins, Noel, Anthony Davis, Barnes, Favors, Brandon Jennings, Mayo, Oden

So pretty miss overall. It looks better if you make the (maybe unfair) assumption that Oden and Noel end up far better if they don't get injured. Few things stick out to me here:
a) While not conclusive the older players tended to have a lower success rate. Jennings, Simmons, Barnes, Mayo, and Jackson were all just about 20 at draft time. You could make an argument that Simmons is the only really good one because of his physical traits being elite and not just good like the rest.
b) Steer clear of guards. Mayo, Jennings, Wiggins, Mudiay, Jackson, and Barrett. Not a single standout in the NBA.

[City of Trees]

.

Given the age issue with Sharpe (nearly 20 at draft time) and position and lack of tape... I'm starting to think I might pass.

Sharpe will not be close to 20 at draft time. He is 18 years old and turns 19 on May 30th