The case of Chet Holmgren for the Magic

[VFX]

Haven't we seen enough of the modern NBA to come to the conclusion that a bigman's effect on the game have been marginalized?

Define bigman? You mean Vuch style of big? Or Giannis, KD, Lebron, multifaceted diverse two way bigman?

Center.

Meaning someone that isn't playing next to a Center.

Even if you are talking about Giannis or KD, thats where the list stops. I can count on one hand guys that are strictly PF's OR true C's in the modern nba that offense runs through effectively as a primary option. The rest are role players, journeymen, and one way guys.

Every team in the playoffs currently is in the latter category.

[thelead]

Chet Holmgren should not show other teams his medical history and that should scare teams away until he drops to maybe 4 or 5, then we acquire another Lottery pick him up.

With that said we could possibly get Jabari Smith, Ivey and or Shaedon Sharpe at 1.

I wouldn't be surprised if OKC is telling Jabari he'll have a guaranteed spot in the starting lineup and not to workout for Orlando.

Sent from my SM-G950U using RealGM mobile app

1) Anyone going #1 is starting. They don't have to be told that.
2) The magic have made it clear that they draft players even if they don't work them out.

[89Magicfan]

Haven't we seen enough of the modern NBA to come to the conclusion that a bigman's effect on the game have been marginalized?

Define bigman? You mean Vuch style of big? Or Giannis, KD, Lebron, multifaceted diverse two way bigman?

Center.

Meaning someone that isn't playing next to a Center.

Even if you are talking about Giannis or KD, thats where the list stops. I can count on one hand guys that are strictly PF's OR true C's in the modern nba that offense runs through effectively as a primary option. The rest are role players, journeymen, and one way guys.

I don’t see that in this draft. I don’t see Chet as the bigman you’re concerned about.

[VFX]

Define bigman? You mean Vuch style of big? Or Giannis, KD, Lebron, multifaceted diverse two way bigman?

Center.

Meaning someone that isn't playing next to a Center.

Even if you are talking about Giannis or KD, thats where the list stops. I can count on one hand guys that are strictly PF's OR true C's in the modern nba that offense runs through effectively as a primary option. The rest are role players, journeymen, and one way guys.

I don’t see that in this draft. I don’t see Chet as the bigman you’re concerned about.

Then you see Chet as being a primary option on offense.

Which the case is made that it isn't effective in the modern nba outside of one or two players.

If you think he's on that level, then you most assuredly believe hes worthy of the #1 pick.

[Xatticus]

Haven't we seen enough of the modern NBA to come to the conclusion that a bigman's effect on the game have been marginalized?

This feels like an oversimplification of a more complex issue.

Certain types of big men and certain kinds of defensive schemes have been exploited by certain types of offensive personnel and strategies. That is absolutely the case. We've seen it the last two years in the playoffs with Gobert. Rudy's a wildly good defensive player who has been neutralized.

But I think the argument could be made that big men are actually in a roundabout way even more valuable than ever because there's becoming increasingly fewer and fewer who can hold up defensively.

Guys like Horford and Adebayo and Mobley and others are guys who can not only hold up defensively against whatever small ball or space ball strategies that opponents try against them, but they can also exploit other teams as shooters, finishers, passers on the short roll, shot blockers and rebounders and that's where the real value is.

You can't run these types of bigs off the floor by going small because they are good enough defensively to stay connected. But if you do try and go small, they're good enough in other areas to take advantage.

Is Chet one of those guys? It seems like he could be.

Seasons end showed Cavs defense was more Allen than Mobley. If Chet is even slimmer and less mobile i have huge concerns especially if he is not shot creator on offense. Horford and Adebayo point to Banchero a lot more.

We've seen a number of teams playing two bigs and benefiting from doing so. The Cavs did all year long. The Celtics took off when they started playing with two bigs. We had a top-10 defense for the last half of the season while playing two bigs and switching everything.

I see Chet slotting right into Bamba's role last year and I believe we have the potential to be a very good defensive team.

[GelbeWand09]

Haven't we seen enough of the modern NBA to come to the conclusion that a bigman's effect on the game have been marginalized?

Its not that easy.

I mean just 11 months ago, Giannis won the NBA title & Ayton was a big factor for Phoenix reaching it. If Middleton plays, Milwaukee probably wins that Boston series too.

The year before Anthony Davis is the best player in the Playoffs and wins the chip.

Last time Jokic had healthy teammates, he reached the conference finals. Embiid is always injured in the playoffs because he has to carry overrated wings & guards on large contracts through the regular season grind.

The common factor of Boston's last 2 conference Finals is Al Horford.

[VFX]

Haven't we seen enough of the modern NBA to come to the conclusion that a bigman's effect on the game have been marginalized?

Its not that easy.

I mean just 11 months ago, Giannis won the NBA title & Ayton was a big factor for Phoenix reaching it. If Middleton plays, Milwaukee probably wins that Boston series too.

The year before Anthony Davis is the best player in the Playoffs and wins the chip.

Last time Jokic had healthy teammates, he reached the conference finals. Embiid is always injured in the playoffs because he has to carry overrated wings & guards on large contracts through the regular season grind.

The common factor of Boston's last 2 conference Finals is Al Horford.

Youve named every big this doesn’t apply to out of 30 teams.

[Last Guardian]

I'm staying away from him because of that terrible frame. He's significantly smaller than even Isaac and Bamba and even Franz (our SMALL F). If he doesn't get injured...he'll just get bodied every night. Its a huge red flag a lot of people are ignoring. You can't just pass it off as "he'll gain weight". Sometimes the human body doesn't really care how hard you train or how much you eat. Its a great problem to have if you're a normal person, but not an athlete in a physical sport. I doubt he ever passes 215...and it will take him a while to get there.

Yes you could say that WCJ is the C who will be doing all the heavy lifting so Chet could be PF. PF is not a magical position in which your weak body will be hidden. You can get destroyed at any position if you are significantly weaker than your opponent.

I don't hate his skill but he's not a franchise altering player. I'm actually not sure if there is one in this draft, but if we want a tall player who can shoot and defend just take Jabari.

Lol trust me know one is ignoring his frame. Chet is significantly more of a risk then any other prospect he is the big swing and could be a unicorn star player but he could also get bullied and injured. I am feeling a swing is necessary. I keep wanting to get excited about Jabari but it feels like he has a hard ceiling as an all star 3 and D. Would rather have Banchero then him.

If anyone passes off his frame as "he'll gain weight with NBA training" then I feel they are basically ignoring it. There is no guarantee he gains anything. There are far more players that have stayed around the same size then there are huge transformations like Dwight and Giannis. And this kid does not have the frame or genetics that Dwight or Giannis have. And a lot of people also underrate how physicality of the NBA is. People talk about how soft it is...and it is compared to the 90s...but it is still a very physical game in general. If you are weak it will be known...like Bamba.

I agree about Jabari to be honest. It is a weak draft to say the least. The worst time to get a #1 pick honestly.

[yoyojw17]

I'm staying away from him because of that terrible frame. He's significantly smaller than even Isaac and Bamba and even Franz (our SMALL F). If he doesn't get injured...he'll just get bodied every night. Its a huge red flag a lot of people are ignoring. You can't just pass it off as "he'll gain weight". Sometimes the human body doesn't really care how hard you train or how much you eat. Its a great problem to have if you're a normal person, but not an athlete in a physical sport. I doubt he ever passes 215...and it will take him a while to get there.

Yes you could say that WCJ is the C who will be doing all the heavy lifting so Chet could be PF. PF is not a magical position in which your weak body will be hidden. You can get destroyed at any position if you are significantly weaker than your opponent.

I don't hate his skill but he's not a franchise altering player. I'm actually not sure if there is one in this draft, but if we want a tall player who can shoot and defend just take Jabari.

Lol trust me know one is ignoring his frame. Chet is significantly more of a risk then any other prospect he is the big swing and could be a unicorn star player but he could also get bullied and injured. I am feeling a swing is necessary. I keep wanting to get excited about Jabari but it feels like he has a hard ceiling as an all star 3 and D. Would rather have Banchero then him.

If anyone passes off his frame as "he'll gain weight with NBA training" then I feel they are basically ignoring it. There is no guarantee he gains anything. There are far more players that have stayed around the same size then there are huge transformations like Dwight and Giannis. And this kid does not have the frame or genetics that Dwight or Giannis have. And a lot of people also underrate how physicality of the NBA is. People talk about how soft it is...and it is compared to the 90s...but it is still a very physical game in general. If you are weak it will be known...like Bamba.

I agree about Jabari to be honest. It is a weak draft to say the least. The worst time to get a #1 pick honestly.

I can honestly be wrong.... but people keep saying "weak draft".... and in my opinion... i see quite a few players that have potential to make names for themselves in this league.

Is there an option that screams generational talent right now?.... no. Do the top talents seem finely grouped together? ... yes. But i do not think that means that this is a weak draft. I can see a future where smith, banchero, holmgren, ivey, sharpe, etc have all star potential... and some might even take steps above that as well. But I at least see a draft that has a lot of "fill in your roster with useful potential" up and down the first round, as well.

but yep. chet's size will be a concern... until it isn't.... but the talent is there. Needless to say... a workout and dietary regimen for me is more tangible than hoping that some players learn certain basketball skills. I'm not going to assume he will gain 40lb... but i know the deligence he has will yield results. And we'll see ... "how much" strength and weight he gains.

[89Magicfan]

Center.

Meaning someone that isn't playing next to a Center.

Even if you are talking about Giannis or KD, thats where the list stops. I can count on one hand guys that are strictly PF's OR true C's in the modern nba that offense runs through effectively as a primary option. The rest are role players, journeymen, and one way guys.

I don’t see that in this draft. I don’t see Chet as the bigman you’re concerned about.

Then you see Chet as being a primary option on offense.

Which the case is made that it isn't effective in the modern nba outside of one or two players.

If you think he's on that level, then you most assuredly believe hes worthy of the #1 pick.

If I’m the coach, yeah. I don’t want Chet living in the paint. I don’t see him as a player that does.

There’s nothing wrong with a tall guy as your primary option. It’s the type of offense he generates.

[bigdogdylan5]

I'm staying away from him because of that terrible frame. He's significantly smaller than even Isaac and Bamba and even Franz (our SMALL F). If he doesn't get injured...he'll just get bodied every night. Its a huge red flag a lot of people are ignoring. You can't just pass it off as "he'll gain weight". Sometimes the human body doesn't really care how hard you train or how much you eat. Its a great problem to have if you're a normal person, but not an athlete in a physical sport. I doubt he ever passes 215...and it will take him a while to get there.

Yes you could say that WCJ is the C who will be doing all the heavy lifting so Chet could be PF. PF is not a magical position in which your weak body will be hidden. You can get destroyed at any position if you are significantly weaker than your opponent.

I don't hate his skill but he's not a franchise altering player. I'm actually not sure if there is one in this draft, but if we want a tall player who can shoot and defend just take Jabari.

Lol trust me know one is ignoring his frame. Chet is significantly more of a risk then any other prospect he is the big swing and could be a unicorn star player but he could also get bullied and injured. I am feeling a swing is necessary. I keep wanting to get excited about Jabari but it feels like he has a hard ceiling as an all star 3 and D. Would rather have Banchero then him.

If anyone passes off his frame as "he'll gain weight with NBA training" then I feel they are basically ignoring it. There is no guarantee he gains anything. There are far more players that have stayed around the same size then there are huge transformations like Dwight and Giannis. And this kid does not have the frame or genetics that Dwight or Giannis have. And a lot of people also underrate how physicality of the NBA is. People talk about how soft it is...and it is compared to the 90s...but it is still a very physical game in general. If you are weak it will be known...like Bamba.

I agree about Jabari to be honest. It is a weak draft to say the least. The worst time to get a #1 pick honestly.

Not sure I agree with last statement I think it’s not crazy no brained decision like last year with Cade but not week like 2013 or that really bad draft in like 2000 that had Kenyon Martin as best player. But though everyone is going to focus on the frame and just what ignore the concerns next year when Wembanyama comes out as a can’t miss prospect when he is just as skinny just taller? I think is as magic fans we are scared of the frame and rightfully so with Bamba and Isaac but if anyone compares Bamba to Chet it’s extremely lazy. Chet is literally better than him at everything.

I am not totally sure he has to put on line 50-60 lbs of muscle to be effective maybe like 10-20. Even then I am not convinced he can’t be effective right now with how skilled he is as long as you have a bigger guy to take him away from the bully center matchup which we currently have. I think this kid has skills and has the drive to be great. He has had the best of the best coming at him for years to dunk on the tall skinny highly recruited guy and he never backs down. He don’t believe he will be a bust unless it’s injuries and you should protect him and play him at the 4 for the first couple years.

[LDNMagic90]

Does Chet have a problem with ball security? I was just watching a video and they mentioned it’s an area that needs improvement?

[Skybox]

Man, I have a hard time with that physique...But I'm listening. I really like Schmitz and the whole idea of BBIQ, skills and a legit mean streak is getting my attention. The idea of everything good about Bamba compounded with advanced instincts and competitive fire is a pretty good picture next to WCJ. I have high hopes of Isaac returning to elite defensive form as C next to WCJ...but Chet's certainly intriguing as a better offensive option with some of the same defensive assets.

[tiderulz]

I'm staying away from him because of that terrible frame. He's significantly smaller than even Isaac and Bamba and even Franz (our SMALL F). If he doesn't get injured...he'll just get bodied every night. Its a huge red flag a lot of people are ignoring. You can't just pass it off as "he'll gain weight". Sometimes the human body doesn't really care how hard you train or how much you eat. Its a great problem to have if you're a normal person, but not an athlete in a physical sport. I doubt he ever passes 215...and it will take him a while to get there.

Yes you could say that WCJ is the C who will be doing all the heavy lifting so Chet could be PF. PF is not a magical position in which your weak body will be hidden. You can get destroyed at any position if you are significantly weaker than your opponent.

I don't hate his skill but he's not a franchise altering player. I'm actually not sure if there is one in this draft, but if we want a tall player who can shoot and defend just take Jabari.

Lol trust me know one is ignoring his frame. Chet is significantly more of a risk then any other prospect he is the big swing and could be a unicorn star player but he could also get bullied and injured. I am feeling a swing is necessary. I keep wanting to get excited about Jabari but it feels like he has a hard ceiling as an all star 3 and D. Would rather have Banchero then him.

If anyone passes off his frame as "he'll gain weight with NBA training" then I feel they are basically ignoring it. There is no guarantee he gains anything. There are far more players that have stayed around the same size then there are huge transformations like Dwight and Giannis. And this kid does not have the frame or genetics that Dwight or Giannis have. And a lot of people also underrate how physicality of the NBA is. People talk about how soft it is...and it is compared to the 90s...but it is still a very physical game in general. If you are weak it will be known...like Bamba.

I agree about Jabari to be honest. It is a weak draft to say the least. The worst time to get a #1 pick honestly.

look at Nerlens Noel. skinny UK center. 205 at draft, 9 years later is only 220 lbs

[zaymon]

This feels like an oversimplification of a more complex issue.

Certain types of big men and certain kinds of defensive schemes have been exploited by certain types of offensive personnel and strategies. That is absolutely the case. We've seen it the last two years in the playoffs with Gobert. Rudy's a wildly good defensive player who has been neutralized.

But I think the argument could be made that big men are actually in a roundabout way even more valuable than ever because there's becoming increasingly fewer and fewer who can hold up defensively.

Guys like Horford and Adebayo and Mobley and others are guys who can not only hold up defensively against whatever small ball or space ball strategies that opponents try against them, but they can also exploit other teams as shooters, finishers, passers on the short roll, shot blockers and rebounders and that's where the real value is.

You can't run these types of bigs off the floor by going small because they are good enough defensively to stay connected. But if you do try and go small, they're good enough in other areas to take advantage.

Is Chet one of those guys? It seems like he could be.

Seasons end showed Cavs defense was more Allen than Mobley. If Chet is even slimmer and less mobile i have huge concerns especially if he is not shot creator on offense. Horford and Adebayo point to Banchero a lot more.

We've seen a number of teams playing two bigs and benefiting from doing so. The Cavs did all year long. The Celtics took off when they started playing with two bigs. We had a top-10 defense for the last half of the season while playing two bigs and switching everything.

I see Chet slotting right into Bamba's role last year and I believe we have the potential to be a very good defensive team.

Well its working to some extent but is it the best option ? Celtics play two undersized bulky big man which are nothing like Holmgren. Cavs had also Allen and Okoro. Holmgren is slimmer and less mobile than Mobley. There is athletic threshold somewhere.
When WCJ played without Bamba we were overall better defensively looking at lineup stats

[Blue_and_Whte]

I like him.

But I have reservations about his game. Defensively, he could be a game changer, but we have Isaac already. Also, we’ve seen in the playoffs how teams played against Gobert? And how will he play against the likes of Embiid in the playoffs?

Will he be useful on offense? He hasn’t shown he can punish smaller defenders on the post, which will make him another Kristaps Porzingis. For a team lacking offensive creators, I don’t think this will even help our offense.

I dont agree with this take at all. Literally his strengths are:
- Ball handling
- Taking defenders off the dribble and get to the rim.
- 39% 3PT shooter.
He is the COMPLETE opposite of Gobert on offense.
I dont have any reservations about his game, I have reservations about his physical profile. If he were bulkier, 220-230 lbs he'd be the clear cut unanimous #1 pick imo.

[MasterGMer]

Guys, just read the ringer article. It is a comprehensive analysis on Chet. I read it earlier. It may change your decision

i would be interested, but i dont have an account

You don't need an account to read the article

[OrlandoNed]

but yep. chet's size will be a concern... until it isn't.... but the talent is there. Needless to say... a workout and dietary regimen for me is more tangible than hoping that some players learn certain basketball skills. I'm not going to assume he will gain 40lb... but i know the deligence he has will yield results. And we'll see ... "how much" strength and weight he gains.

You can teach basketball, you can’t teach how not to have the frailest 7 foot tall skeleton in the history of the league. An S+C coach and a freaking diet isn’t going to change his skeletal structure.

There is way too much risk to put the hopes of the franchise on his shoulders. His body probably can’t even carry the weight of a figure of speech. You draft him and you are signing up for a decade of holding your breath any time anybody bigger than muggsy bouges or Spud Webb puts his ass on the floor.

I don’t even care if he turns out a better overall pro than Jabari or Banchero, because he won’t matter much when he’s on the bench nursing an injury from something that guys with builds like Jabari and Banchero would routinely shake off.

Let him join the roadside freak show in OKC and let them give themselves ulcers worrying about Chet’s health. Hell, they already have his long lost brother Poku there to keep him company.

[MAGICian619]

I disagree with those saying this is a "weak draft." It may not be the 2003 or even last years class, but I would hardly classify this as a weak draft, especially the top 2. Just because they aren't scoring wings like a lot would prefer, the top 2 guys could truly be special in their own rights.

[Xatticus]

Seasons end showed Cavs defense was more Allen than Mobley. If Chet is even slimmer and less mobile i have huge concerns especially if he is not shot creator on offense. Horford and Adebayo point to Banchero a lot more.

We've seen a number of teams playing two bigs and benefiting from doing so. The Cavs did all year long. The Celtics took off when they started playing with two bigs. We had a top-10 defense for the last half of the season while playing two bigs and switching everything.

I see Chet slotting right into Bamba's role last year and I believe we have the potential to be a very good defensive team.

Well its working to some extent but is it the best option ? Celtics play two undersized bulky big man which are nothing like Holmgren. Cavs had also Allen and Okoro. Holmgren is slimmer and less mobile than Mobley. There is athletic threshold somewhere.
When WCJ played without Bamba we were overall better defensively looking at lineup stats

I'm not advocating for it. I just believe there is more than one way to skin the cat. It's not some conventional formula that matters. It's all about the personnel.

Allen and Timelord are absolutely traditional fives though. It's not a criticism, but when you look at what they do on the floor... they protect the rim, they screen and dive, and they rim run. Brandon Clarke is another guy that fits into that same type of role. Horford and Mobley are obviously far more versatile and that's what makes it work.

I wouldn't have believed that a Bamba/WCJ pairing would've worked before the season, but it was just fine. It was quite good at the defensive end. Given that, I just don't have any doubts that Holmgren and WCJ would work together swimmingly.