The case of Chet Holmgren for the Magic

[zaymon]

We've seen a number of teams playing two bigs and benefiting from doing so. The Cavs did all year long. The Celtics took off when they started playing with two bigs. We had a top-10 defense for the last half of the season while playing two bigs and switching everything.

I see Chet slotting right into Bamba's role last year and I believe we have the potential to be a very good defensive team.

Well its working to some extent but is it the best option ? Celtics play two undersized bulky big man which are nothing like Holmgren. Cavs had also Allen and Okoro. Holmgren is slimmer and less mobile than Mobley. There is athletic threshold somewhere.
When WCJ played without Bamba we were overall better defensively looking at lineup stats

I'm not advocating for it. I just believe there is more than one way to skin the cat. It's not some conventional formula that matters. It's all about the personnel.

Allen and Timelord are absolutely traditional fives though. It's not a criticism, but when you look at what they do on the floor... they protect the rim, they screen and dive, and they rim run. Brandon Clarke is another guy that fits into that same type of role. Horford and Mobley are obviously far more versatile and that's what makes it work.

I wouldn't have believed that a Bamba/WCJ pairing would've worked before the season, but it was just fine. It was quite good at the defensive end. Given that, I just don't have any doubts that Holmgren and WCJ would work together swimmingly.

While i agree with you and have Holmgren second on my board i just cant imagine we pass Banchero. I was really meh on him until i saw his stats and watched more film (duh). I am so giddy to watch Banchero and Wagner together. So much ball handling and passing.
WCJ/Bamba 109.2 defrtg, WCJ/Okeke 100.1 defrtg.
I just worry Holmgren wont be able to switch like Allen and Timelord can. They are also thick dudes

[T-Cat]

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[KillMonger]

Man I've been flip flopping everyday....one day I'm thinking banchero the next I'm thinking chet....today it's chet....to me he has the highest boom out of the 3 bigs but also the highest bust....more and more I'm starting to think that mo Bamba at PF was just a proof of concept for chet

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[thelead]

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Not gonna lie... that scored a few extra points with me.

[Def Swami]

Haven't we seen enough of the modern NBA to come to the conclusion that a bigman's effect on the game have been marginalized?

Giannis, Embiid, Jokic finished top 3 in MVP?

[Mule Tears]

Hard pass on Chet. The skinny frame is extremely worrisome. Plus, Jabari is the explosive shooter/wing we've been missing for years.

Jabari Smith or Banchero will be the pick.

[RichCollab]

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Not gonna lie... that scored a few extra points with me.

Damn! I like it though.

[shadrock]

Shot blocking and defense are not the same thing. Chet will get pushed around at NBA level and will become a liability on defense to the point where he will need a special kind of support player alongside him to cover his flaws at all times. His shot blocking is nice but again theres big gap between the level of players at college and the nba. I just dont see him translating his game to the NBA.

[PrimeThyme]

I’m preparing myself for Chet to be the pick. Here’s to hoping that he has a long healthy career with us. If he can stay healthy, I think he has the skillset to become one of the best players in this league.

[penny_nz]

I've got to be honest, I've only ever thought of Chet as a 5 and his frame scared the life out of me. After reading this thread, playing him as a 4 with WCJ to bang inside at 5 is intriguing and makes me more comfortable. Obviously injuries is still a concern, but at some point I have to challenge how much of that is Magic bad luck clouding my judgement. The unicorn potential is always enticing ...

[BadMofoPimp]

After seeing so many twig figure players not lasting long in the NBA, I want nothing to do with Chet. I think he may be good for 2-4 years, but long term, I don't think he will be effective. You can throw out as many names as you want, but not going to tempt me. Durability is huge and he doesn't have the frame to face the riggers of an 81 game seasons long term in my opinion. I want Jabari or Banchero. Chet is more a 3rd pick to me. 30+mpg in the NBA against NBA big players for 81 games is harder on the body than 25mpg for 32 games NCAA teenagers.

[MagicFan101]

I’m preparing myself for Chet to be the pick. Here’s to hoping that he has a long healthy career with us. If he can stay healthy, I think he has the skillset to become one of the best players in this league.

I have no doubt he has the skill set and almost as importantly, the mindset to become one of the best players in this league.

I don’t actually believe that about anyone else in this class which actually might be enough for me to end the conversation here.

But man … that frame scares me. You look back at other skinny prospects and see how they differed as they had the shoulders to build from. Where do you start with him? What is the process for developing an NBA body? He doesn’t have to be Dwight. That isn’t what the NBA is anymore but what is their vision and how do they put him in a position to stay healthy and succeed? If they can answer those questions …

[PrimeThyme]

But man … that frame scares me. You look back at other skinny prospects and see how they differed as they had the shoulders to build from. Where do you start with him? What is the process for developing an NBA body? He doesn’t have to be Dwight. That isn’t what the NBA is anymore but what is their vision and how do they put him in a position to stay healthy and succeed? If they can answer those questions …

It's the big gamble, && to be honest, with us having the worst medical staff in the NBA I can't exactly say that we'd be the best landing spot for him. Especially after the Suggs ankle fiasco.. I'm just so incredibly frustrated with the handling of injuries over Weltman's tenure here to the point of having zero confidence in any medical-related decisions they make.

It's a full-blown tragedy, && us drafting Chet could potentially make it an even greater one.

[Ralof]

my fav prospect by far, pair of things

1)he is a four in nba,power forward,call it whatever you want,is not a center,don't know why people insist on that.

2)frame is not a problem,or better said it is for injuries risk,that is relevant for sure.

if you believe the skills he has could translate,frame is abolutely not a problem.

what we have to ask about him is about :

-will nba game be too fast for him or not?can he adjust eventually?
-his 3 point shot will traslate?can he be a 37-38% shooter in few years?
-his fast and quick enough for nba or he will have just to rely on his lenght?that's change a lot of things.

if you have positive answers to those questions is the #1 pick,a defensive game changer with 3point range.
clearly is very difficult to have clear and sure answers ah ah

[MagicFan12345]

But man … that frame scares me. You look back at other skinny prospects and see how they differed as they had the shoulders to build from. Where do you start with him? What is the process for developing an NBA body? He doesn’t have to be Dwight. That isn’t what the NBA is anymore but what is their vision and how do they put him in a position to stay healthy and succeed? If they can answer those questions …

It's the big gamble, && to be honest, with us having the worst medical staff in the NBA I can't exactly say that we'd be the best landing spot for him. Especially after the Suggs ankle fiasco.. I'm just so incredibly frustrated with the handling of injuries over Weltman's tenure here to the point of having zero confidence in any medical-related decisions they make.

It's a full-blown tragedy, && us drafting Chet could potentially make it an even greater one.

Magic did change their trainer last year though

[MagicFan12345]

I want nothing to do with Chet, his frame worries me, he probably will be on the injury list after someone breaks his arm or falls down and breaks his arm

[Skybox]

Intriguing, but still my third choice...I'm old enough to remember Shawn Bradley's "dominant" skills not helping him avoid looking like a boy among men when he got to the show. I'd get on board, but not my pick.

[BadMofoPimp]

Maybe if Chet plays SF or maybe PF, he could last. But, if he is drafted to hold down the post, I fear for him perennially being on the injury list like Kristaps. Well, at least you get him for 40-50 games per season part time player. I do like his skills though as a tall SF.

[fendilim]

The only way Chet survives the NBA is if he plays the 4. No way is he going to survive playing against Embiid or jokic, imo.

If he adds more weight, I think it will prevent him to be the versatile defender he is now.

[VFX]

The only way Chet survives the NBA is if he plays the 4. No way is he going to survive playing against Embiid or jokic, imo.

If he adds more weight, I think it will prevent him to be the versatile defender he is now.

I think he's a 4 regardless of who he's matched up.

I don't think that adding weight is going to do anything with his frame. It'll probably also take away what makes him an intriguing prospect in his ability to take guys off the dribble in space.

If teams play him without a true Center they aren't utilizing what makes him effective. He's an extremely niche player IMO. Effective, but niche.