2021-22 NBA Season Discussion

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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#5241 » by jalengreen » Fri May 20, 2022 12:12 am

Texas Chuck wrote:none of them isolate impact nearly as well as they purport. Not sure why they continue to be relied upon so heavily especially in small samples. Especially when sometimes we don't rely on them at all if they give us numbers that don't fit what we've already decided.

I don't understand why we can't accept there is no single-metric available to tell us how good a basketball player is or isn't. That we have to work harder, and look beyond just someone's attempt at an all-in-one metric. Nothing against the creators of those who I'm sure all all brilliant stats guys doing their best, but its too dynamic and the samples sizes with the same people on the court are just way too small for us to say yep, this guy is the best or even yep this guy is the best in his role.

And if its really is as simple as just who has the best +/- then we should just shut this subforum down, because you can just look at the numbers and the job is done for you.


i think the best xRAPM metrics provide insight on the impact of NBA players. no i don't think they're the end all be all, nor do i think they're useless. i do think they give u more insight than anything in the box score can. i do not think it's as simple as who has the best +/- but i don't think that's really been suggested in this conversation

here's one way to put it: we do not have metrics like EPM for an era like the 1980s. if we did, i believe we'd have more insight on player impact in the 1980s than we do now. would we have "solved" basketball? no of course not. it's just more information at our disposal

i think some people have the wrong idea of what the purpose of these metrics are. sometimes i see people cite something like "oh my god player X has a higher EPM than player Y? how stupid!" as if this is supposed to be a definitive player ranking. it's not.
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#5242 » by MyUniBroDavis » Fri May 20, 2022 12:13 am

eminence wrote:'15, '16, '21, '22 - Full combined seasons

Curry/Dray on: 8707 minutes, 116.9 Ortg, 103.0 Drtg, +13.9 Net
Curry on/Dray off: 2893 minutes, 113.3 Ortg, 108.5 Drtg, +4.8 Net
Dray on/Curry off: 2015 minutes, 108.7 Ortg, 103.9 Drtg, +4.8 Net
Curry/Dray off: 4574 minutes, 104.8 Ortg, 109.6 Drtg, -4.8 Net

I appreciate they have the same solo Net rating over their period as the two clear leaders of the squad.


The amount of arguments I have about dray>Klay with my friends lol
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#5243 » by eminence » Fri May 20, 2022 12:32 am

ardee wrote:
eminence wrote:'15, '16, '21, '22 - Full combined seasons

Curry/Dray on: 8707 minutes, 116.9 Ortg, 103.0 Drtg, +13.9 Net
Curry on/Dray off: 2893 minutes, 113.3 Ortg, 108.5 Drtg, +4.8 Net
Dray on/Curry off: 2015 minutes, 108.7 Ortg, 103.9 Drtg, +4.8 Net
Curry/Dray off: 4574 minutes, 104.8 Ortg, 109.6 Drtg, -4.8 Net

I appreciate they have the same solo Net rating over their period as the two clear leaders of the squad.


Where do you find these stats since BBR put their stat finder behind a paywall?


I've been using this one recently:

https://www.pbpstats.com/wowy/nba
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#5244 » by eminence » Fri May 20, 2022 12:48 am

Hoping for a good game 2 for the Celtics/Heat, seeing if Jimmy can keep up his run.
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#5245 » by Lou Fan » Fri May 20, 2022 1:06 am

Doctor MJ wrote:
jalengreen wrote:draymond is such a great fit with curry IMO which, as a fan of lillard, makes me quite jealous because i think he's exactly the type of player the dame/cj blazers needed and makes more sense with dray than a cp3 or ja.


Honestly, the way Dame has actually played to me is more of an on-ball guy like CP3 or Ja. Are you saying that Dame doesn't play like that or that he wouldn't have played like that if he had Dray?

Sure he's on ball compared to Curry but surely not to the same degree as CP3 or even Ja. Plus it seems clear that Dame would be more suited to playing off ball should it be necessary for elevating the offense.
smartyz456 wrote:Duncan would be a better defending jahlil okafor in todays nba
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#5246 » by MyUniBroDavis » Fri May 20, 2022 1:08 am

Lou Fan wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
jalengreen wrote:draymond is such a great fit with curry IMO which, as a fan of lillard, makes me quite jealous because i think he's exactly the type of player the dame/cj blazers needed and makes more sense with dray than a cp3 or ja.


Honestly, the way Dame has actually played to me is more of an on-ball guy like CP3 or Ja. Are you saying that Dame doesn't play like that or that he wouldn't have played like that if he had Dray?

Sure he's on ball compared to Curry but surely not to the same degree as CP3 or even Ja. Plus it seems clear that Dame would be more suited to playing off ball should it be necessary for elevating the offense.


Dames strength is his off ball catch and shoot shooting though

Dray would help him when they blitz the pick and roll and dame has to dump it off I think for sure
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#5247 » by eminence » Fri May 20, 2022 1:13 am

Pretty wild 1st quarter.

Hard to beat shooting like that though.
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#5248 » by Peregrine01 » Fri May 20, 2022 1:24 am

I swear Marcus Smart gets every 50/50 ball.
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#5249 » by Peregrine01 » Fri May 20, 2022 1:34 am

I don't think Boston loses again in this series.
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#5250 » by sp6r=underrated » Fri May 20, 2022 1:38 am

sp6r=underrated wrote:I saw this posted on the GB but it is a fair question: will the increasingly high 3par lead to playoffs with more blowouts even if teams are closely matched?

Consider this, going into the RS we only had two teams with 6 SRS, and there were no elite teams +8 SrS. You would expect close games. There have been 71 playoff games so far

1 OT
16 games decided by 4 or less points
34 games decided by 9 or less points
20 games decided by 20 or more points.


In 2012 through the first 71 playoff games we had
4 OTs
24 games decided by 4 or less points
39 games decided by 9 or less points
7 Games decided by 20 or more points

I'd really need to do study every year but something to consider.


well on our way to another blowout.
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#5251 » by jalengreen » Fri May 20, 2022 1:40 am

the last game to be decided by single digits was G6 of MIA-PHI on may 12th (7 days ago)

the last game that really came down to the wire IIRC was G5 of MIL-BOS on may 11th (8 days ago)

not sure how it statistically stacks up to other postseasons but man i'm hoping for some closer games.
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#5252 » by Lou Fan » Fri May 20, 2022 1:44 am

MyUniBroDavis wrote:
Lou Fan wrote:
Doctor MJ wrote:
Honestly, the way Dame has actually played to me is more of an on-ball guy like CP3 or Ja. Are you saying that Dame doesn't play like that or that he wouldn't have played like that if he had Dray?

Sure he's on ball compared to Curry but surely not to the same degree as CP3 or even Ja. Plus it seems clear that Dame would be more suited to playing off ball should it be necessary for elevating the offense.


Dames strength is his off ball catch and shoot shooting though

Dray would help him when they blitz the pick and roll and dame has to dump it off I think for sure

Honestly I think Dame's biggest strength is his on ball shooting but I do agree with the second part for sure.
smartyz456 wrote:Duncan would be a better defending jahlil okafor in todays nba
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#5253 » by sp6r=underrated » Fri May 20, 2022 1:45 am

Peregrine01 wrote:I don't think Boston loses again in this series.


Scores in PH-DAL Series:

G1: -7
G2: -20
G3: +9
G4: +10
G5: -30
G6: +27
G7: +33

Scores in BOS-MIL Series:
G1: -12
G2: +23
G3: -2
G4: +8
G5: -3
G6: -13
G7: -28
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#5254 » by sp6r=underrated » Fri May 20, 2022 1:56 am

jalengreen wrote:the last game to be decided by single digits was G6 of MIA-PHI on may 12th (7 days ago)

the last game that really came down to the wire IIRC was G5 of MIL-BOS on may 11th (8 days ago)

not sure how it statistically stacks up to other postseasons but man i'm hoping for some closer games.


I'm going try to run other years to see if we're really seeing more blowouts but if it id I'm certain this is caused by the 3 ball era. MAkes you think what it will look like what we'll see when the 3PAr hits 50% which is coming very soon.
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#5255 » by falcolombardi » Fri May 20, 2022 1:59 am

a lot of games end up somewhat close after garvage mins or with a somewhat big margin although they were close until the absolute end so evaluating the amount of close games by end margins is tricky

series like minny vs memphis or memphis vs warriors had a disproportionate amount of close games in spite of taking a ton of 3's so i dont know how much stock to put in that theory
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#5256 » by sp6r=underrated » Fri May 20, 2022 2:02 am

falcolombardi wrote:a lot of games end up somewhat close after garvage mins or with a somewhat big margin although they were close until the absolute end so evaluating the amount of close games by end margins is tricky

series like minny vs memphis or memphis vs warriors had a disproportionate amount of close games in spite of taking a ton of 3's so i dont know how much stock to put in that theory


This is a huge difference


1 OT
16 games decided by 4 or less points
34 games decided by 9 or less points
20 games decided by 20 or more points.


In 2012 through the first 71 playoff games we had
4 OTs
24 games decided by 4 or less points
39 games decided by 9 or less points
7 Games decided by 20 or more points
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#5257 » by ronnymac2 » Fri May 20, 2022 2:23 am

I don't know if I can ever firmly state that the Heat ever have HCA. This is GM2 of the ECF and there are a lot of people in the stands dressed up as empty seats. I know MIA and Florida in general is a football location, but dang, these people need to shape up. I honestly didn't think the "Let's Go Heat" chants were going to drown out the "Let's Go Celtics" chants.
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#5258 » by HeartBreakKid » Fri May 20, 2022 2:25 am

ronnymac2 wrote:I don't know if I can ever firmly state that the Heat ever have HCA. This is GM2 of the ECF and there are a lot of people in the stands dressed up as empty seats. I know MIA and Florida in general is a football location, but dang, these people need to shape up. I honestly didn't think the "Let's Go Heat" chants were going to drown out the "Let's Go Celtics" chants.


Heat are always empty like that lol. You'd figure this was game 37 of the regular season by looking at the stands.
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#5259 » by sp6r=underrated » Fri May 20, 2022 2:28 am

ronnymac2 wrote:I don't know if I can ever firmly state that the Heat ever have HCA. This is GM2 of the ECF and there are a lot of people in the stands dressed up as empty seats. I know MIA and Florida in general is a football location, but dang, these people need to shape up. I honestly didn't think the "Let's Go Heat" chants were going to drown out the "Let's Go Celtics" chants.


Dolphins don't draw. Marlins can't draw at all. As far as I can tell only the U has a big fanbase. Kind of amazing how small the Heat's fanbase considering this is their 9th CF in 27 yrs. Miami isn't good sport town.

This doesn't reflect poorly on Miami of course. As I've aged I've concluded sports nutty seasons like the ones in the NorthEast are the weirdos and cities like Miami have a better perspective.
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Re: 2021-22 NBA Season Discussion 

Post#5260 » by GSP » Fri May 20, 2022 2:41 am

Bams offensive game is just bleh. Nonshooter and mid scorer if he cant roll off picks and catch lobs. Hes an overrated passer to when he doesnt have snipers he can just spam Dhos with. Outside of the bubble he hasnt been an impact player on offense in playoffs. I actually think Rudy might be the more impactful offensive player even if he doesnt have as high PPG

Jimmy continues to be incredible tho

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