Krawczynski: Tim Connelly as POBO (Official! page 6)

[karch34]

From what I’ve heard it sounds more like the liquidity of the net worth. Don’t know a lot more than that. I do agree that it’s not likely they don’t have it.

[Klomp]

Also read the General board thread about him, lots of Nuggets posters critical of him, despite being overall quality drafter and culture builder, they highly critical of his flawed trading, free agency signings and maxing underwhelming players or missing tons of opportunities to improve team etc. So its not all rosy. Even if he is a bigger name in his field.

No GM or POBO is perfect.

We talk about Minnesota being a difficult market to attract free agents too, but Denver might be even worse. Keep in mind they do not have a real practice facility. Do you remember Lifetime Fitness Courts in the basement of Target Center? That might even be bigger than what the Nuggets have to work with. They also didn't have a G League team until this year....meaning they could send a player down to where they would have to play in systems for Minnesota (Iowa) or Chicago (Windy City) for example because it was essentially a random draw of where a player would be assigned. Oh, and the G League affiliate they finally got this year is in Grand Rapids...MICHIGAN. Two time zones away. For Tim Connelly to develop a culture of that all while under a mandate of staying below the luxury tax every year is a damn miracle.

[Shaka_Zulu]

Good post. Agree with all of it. Tho I'm not a local, not even in same continent, so not aware of whats in basement of target center lol. Or I'm just getting senile at my age.


And I'm not saying Connelly won't be a big get and this isn't exciting development. But as someone who barely knows him except that Nuggets been a well run organisation I been envious of, all I can go on is what others who know him well say.

So pretty much replied to the excited guy with the awesome Ant avatar, of some feedback about his capabilities that were critical. That its not all perfect and rosy, which is fine life isnt. But getting a full picture of him is good, mentally set our expectations a little in what his best sides might be.


If we hire him, I wish him well and will eagerly await who we will draft, since that's a strong suit of his.

[Klomp]

Just throwing a reference point out there...

Read on Twitter

While Ujiri is not on a path to ownership at the moment, there are some ‘equity-like’ elements, including earning bonuses based on revenues or some additional benefits based on the valuation of the team, in this new arrangement.

(The 2013 contract was double or triple his Denver salary at the time I believe.)



From 3 years ago:

Fred Katz: Connelly would be asking for a significant raise from his current salary in Denver. He currently makes in the realm of $2 million, according to sources.

Chris Mannix: The Wizards presented Tim Connelly with a four-year contract offer that is believed to be in the neighborhood financially of what he was looking for, sources tell @SInow. Connelly wanted five years—but is strongly considering the offer.

The Athletic: Connelly just got a two-year extension from Denver owner Stan Kroenke that will pay him, industry sources say, somewhere just north of $2 million per year through 2021. It will surely take a doubling of that per annum, if not more, to get his attention, and to allow him to go to the Kroenke Family in good faith and say ‘come on. This is generational money for my family that I’ll likely not make again. It’s my (close to) hometown team. You have to let me go.’

[Klomp]

I listened to Dane’s podcast, and Britt is really against Connelly over Gupta. He says under Gupta, we have the best chemistry ever, 15th man through ownership. He calls paying for Connelly “inside the box thinking,” which comes from ARod and Lora not being basketball guys that realize MIN needs “outside the box thinking.” Lots more to take in as well - I recommend this episode.

"What is Connelly going to do that Gupta can't do?"

That's a question that Britt asked on the pod, and that right there is the very definition of Minnesota thinking. 'Anyone can do this, so why spend $50 when you can get a discount for $5?' 'Sachin wants this job, how can we look at someone else?'

Make a list ranking the 30 top decision-makers. Where is Gupta? I'd almost guarantee he's not in the Top 15. He might have that potential, but that potential has not been realized yet (and may never be). Tim Connelly has done this. He has done this for nearly a decade. He has a clear track record. Maybe he's not Top 5, but he almost assuredly is a Top 10 decision-maker.

[Klomp]

I am worried about the eight year contract. If that’s true, that seems like too long for anyone in a rapidly changing NBA. I’m old enough to remember 7 year deals to guys like Mario Jaric, which cost assets to get off of. ARod and Lore are not rich by owner standards, and if Connelly isn’t working out, I doubt they can afford to fire him and bring in someone else.

I look at this two ways:

First of all, You have a point (not necessarily the one you were making) to that not many top decision-makers have been in charge for long. Roughly two-thirds of them were hired within the last five years. However, look at the longer serving guys. They are virtually all either at the top of the class now or have been in the past: Pop/Buford, Presti, Riley, Donnie Nelson, Marks, Myers. Oh look, Connelly is there too. Owners are trigger happy with GMs, but Connelly hasn't given enough of a reason to ever be let go. This isn't a situation where he was fired. He's still in charge. It takes a lot to get someone like that away from another team.

Here's another thought: I've seen some people worry about the timing because of draft prep. But keep in mind Denver has the 21st pick. We have the 19th pick. He's essentially been looking at the same caliber of prospects already. He won't be behind on scouting, at least regarding the first round pick. Granted DEN doesn't have a 2nd, so that's worth noting.

[moss_is_1]

Not going to lie an 8 year deal where he gets, say $5m per year? Is a little scary. I don't think he's proven that.

[Klomp]

Let this add into the equation: Almost assuredly Glen Taylor would keep Sachin Gupta in charge if he was the only man making this hire. Do you trust his track record for making the proper hire?

[Klomp]

Interesting point from Dane:

Sachin Gupta has shown to be risk-averse.
That's not how Lore and Rodriguez have made their wealth.

I know it's scary. I know it's not the Minnesota way. But I also think a mindset like that is necessary in order to be great.

Look back at some of the best moves made in sports. Most of them were seen as risky at the time. Yeah there will be mistakes along the way. But that won't stop any of them from continuing to take risks.

[Worm Guts]

Let this add into the equation: Almost assuredly Glen Taylor would keep Sachin Gupta in charge if he was the only man making this hire. Do you trust his track record for making the proper hire?

Maybe you’ve heard something I haven’t, but that’s not an assumption I’d make. He didn’t keep Milt Newton after Flip passed.

[Klomp]

Let this add into the equation: Almost assuredly Glen Taylor would keep Sachin Gupta in charge if he was the only man making this hire. Do you trust his track record for making the proper hire?

Maybe you’ve heard something I haven’t, but that’s not an assumption I’d make. He didn’t keep Milt Newton after Flip passed.

I feel like the Finch stamp of approval would be all Taylor needed, along with a handshake and a look into his eyes.

[King Malta]

Let this add into the equation: Almost assuredly Glen Taylor would keep Sachin Gupta in charge if he was the only man making this hire. Do you trust his track record for making the proper hire?

Maybe you’ve heard something I haven’t, but that’s not an assumption I’d make. He didn’t keep Milt Newton after Flip passed.

Or Sam Mitchell.

He's made more than his fair share of bad hires, but they haven't always been safe ones.

I'm not fully sold on Connelly as I've stated earlier, but I would like to echo some of the sentiment about the opposition to this move being very "Minnesota". I like Gupta and he seems competent, but the resumes of the two guys are absolutely worlds apart, I'm not even sure Gupta would get near another POBO job if he went looking right now. I'd love to keep him on in some capacity though.

[Nick K]

I'd like to say this on why Connelly will come here. He has been in Denver for years and gone from the bottom to near the top. He has more downside there than upside now. It's more what have you done for me lately. If he comes here he has a new clean slate that will get him 7-9 more years and maybe a small ownership piece. The security here is vastly superior to what he has in Denver right now.

What would you do if you were him. The decision is easy. Isn't it?

[Domejandro]

I think locking in Tim Connelly for eight years is positive because it ensures that he will take a long-term approach to team-building. We don't want to hire someone unproven on a three year timeline, getting a (comfortably) top eight guy is worthwhile, assuming that Glen Taylor is comfortable paying it.

[shrink]

Interesting point from Dane:

Sachin Gupta has shown to be risk-averse.
That's not how Lore and Rodriguez have made their wealth.

I know it's scary. I know it's not the Minnesota way. But I also think a mindset like that is necessary in order to be great.

Look back at some of the best moves made in sports. Most of them were seen as risky at the time. Yeah there will be mistakes along the way. But that won't stop any of them from continuing to take risks.

I don’t agree the Gupta is risk averse. Before Connelly was even a possibility, I worried if Gupta would be likely to make a change at the trade deadline to help keep his job, even if it didn’t help the team. If I was a rival GM, I would be offering lowball offers because of his lack of experience and personal motivation to make some kind of deal. The fact that he made no move is something unselfish that I give him credit for, not label him “risk-averse.” Every trade is a two-way street - you need the right offer to make a trade.

Oh, and as for Minnesota thinking, I didn’t grow up in Minnesota. I also lauded the acquisition of Thibs, who had had as much success in CHI as DEN has. But I can’t imagine how our team would have suffered if we had signed him to an 8 year deal. You just don’t know.

[Krapinsky]

Not going to lie an 8 year deal where he gets, say $5m per year? Is a little scary. I don't think he's proven that.

If it doesn’t count against the cap then as fans why care how they spend their money? Do you also worry they’re not charging enough for hot dogs at Target Center?

[King Malta]

Interesting point from Dane:

Sachin Gupta has shown to be risk-averse.
That's not how Lore and Rodriguez have made their wealth.

I know it's scary. I know it's not the Minnesota way. But I also think a mindset like that is necessary in order to be great.

Look back at some of the best moves made in sports. Most of them were seen as risky at the time. Yeah there will be mistakes along the way. But that won't stop any of them from continuing to take risks.

I don’t agree the Gupta is risk averse. Before Connelly was even a possibility, I worried if Gupta would be likely to make a change at the trade deadline to help keep his job, even if it didn’t help the team. If I was a rival GM, I would be offering lowball offers because of his lack of experience and personal motivation to make some kind of deal. The fact that he made no move is something unselfish that I give him credit for, not label him “risk-averse.” Every trade is a two-way street - you need the right offer to make a trade.

Oh, and as for Minnesota thinking, I didn’t grow up in Minnesota. I also lauded the acquisition of Thibs, who had had as much success in CHI as DEN has. But I can’t imagine how our team would have suffered if we had signed him to an 8 year deal. You just don’t know.

To be totally fair when it comes to Thibs, we hired him to a role he himself hadn't actually performed at all until he arrived in Minnesota.

Hindsight is a beautiful thing, but the dual role job in basketball hasn't been something that has generated a tonne of success outside of a few basketball genius types, and we got it very wrong with Thibs. Had he been here purely as a coach, perhaps thing would have worked out differently, we'll never know.

[younggunsmn]

Well Denver has knocked it out of the park on the talent evaluation and player development front during Connelly's tenure, which is the most important and difficult part of the job. They always seem to have so much talent that there are players rotting on the bench who would get good run elsewhere.

Some of those big contracts he has handed out are a little bit yikes (Gary Harris anyone?), but they've been pretty unlucky with injuries too. He made a great coaching hire in Malone, the Gordon trade worked out well for them, and earning the 6th seed without two of their 3 best players was outstanding, even if they did have an MVP year from Jokic. There will be a cap crunch soon, but they could trade any player on their roster for positive value.

I'm skeptical he will leave Denver, he's been courted by other teams before. The uncertainty in our ownership situation has to give him some pause. Taylor has a deservedly bad rep, and there is nothing stopping him from pulling the plug on the sale until majority ownership acutally changes hands.

Gupta doesn't have the track record yet on the talent evaluation and player development side. He has good relationships and a knack for the cap and trade frameworks, but Connelly is on a whole nother tier in being able to point to all the guys he had final say on drafting and developing.

The upside for me with Connelly is he is hopefully smart enough to pull the plug on Russell, and will look for better ways to use KAT, and hopefully get KAT to be more disciplined on the court, because he was going way off script in the playoffs and it cost us a series.

[shrink]

Not going to lie an 8 year deal where he gets, say $5m per year? Is a little scary. I don't think he's proven that.

If it doesn’t count against the cap then as fans why care how they spend their money? Do you also worry they’re not charging enough for hot dogs at Target Center?

You care because if the owners spend a fortune on a player or POBO, and they don’t work out, they may be less likely to pay them to go away if they have a ton of money left on their deals.

[younggunsmn]

Not going to lie an 8 year deal where he gets, say $5m per year? Is a little scary. I don't think he's proven that.

If it doesn’t count against the cap then as fans why care how they spend their money? Do you also worry they’re not charging enough for hot dogs at Target Center?

You care because if the owners spend a fortune on a player or POBO, and they don’t work out, they may be less likely to pay them to go away if they have a ton of money left on their deals.

If your owner is impatient, cheap, and/or trigger happy, having a lot of dead money tied up in a fired coach/gm can hamstring your team. See the David Kahn tradedown fiasco to get money to replace the fired Rambis as exhibit A.
But you think someone with Connelly's pedigree would have a longer runway.
8 years for a new hire is eyebrow raising.

Given the choice, I'd take Presti, but maybe he was unobtainable.