Luka Doncic V Curry Right Now

[Doctor MJ]

Big thing here:

Two players that are more different than people even realize, and the comparison shouldn't be seen as any kind of simple thing based on a box score. That's mostly about offense, but it's defense too. I see the way people still dismiss Curry's defense, and I just shake my head. Curry's become much tougher as a man defender, much better at working with teammates in general, and become another defensive quarterback out there directing younger teammates on a team where communication is possibly their best defensive attribute.

Now, forced to choose, people won't be surprised when I side with Curry, but I'll break it down like this:

Curry was drastically more valuable in the regular season - if you don't have a sense for how weak Doncic's regular season impact was relative to his box score, well, you probably won't listen to me now, but it's a very noteworthy thing.

As expected Doncic has been considerably more valuable in the playoffs than in the regular season, when it comes to naming a Best Player of Round 2, I think Doncic is clearly the top guy in the Western Conference.

But it's been a stark difference so far in the WCF in favor of Curry imho. It's not so much that Doncic is doing something wrong as much as it is we're just seeing how much more flexible the Warrior style of play is compared to the rigidity of most other teams (like Dallas, Phoenix, etc). While it remains possible that Doncic will get so much better that the Mavs will be able to keep playing in this style and end up champions, it should be accepted that in order for the Mavs to have that success that way, Doncic will have to be better in this role than anyone has ever been, and that short of that, the Mavs are going to have to change aspects of their approach.

(And of course, as I say this, if there's ever going to be someone who comes back from 0-3 by just dominating every offensive possession, Luka seems the right candidate. Obviously if he does that, it's going to transform how I see the present Luka.)

Of course, this doesn't mean any particular Warrior is "better" than Doncic, but it has to be understood that the Warriors play the way they do not to max-out Curry's shooting volume/rhythm, but to train to be able to out-improvise other teams - both with in-game scheme shifts and in-the-moment player decision making. Curry having the talents he has, the work ethic he has, and the willingness to expend energy without any guarantee of getting the ball, is essential to how the Warriors are able to do their thing.

[Texas Chuck]

Curry was drastically more valuable in the regular season - if you don't have a sense for how weak Doncic's regular season impact was relative to his box score, well, you probably won't listen to me now, but it's a very noteworthy thing.
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Doc,

I think its tough to take you at face value on this when you post things like Nash was better than Kidd when they were teammates in Phoenix at the start of Nash's career because of WS/48 and efficiency.

It can lead one to think at least that you are starting with a preference and then finding data that will support that preference. I don't think you are doing this intentionally, but that example is so far beyond the pale, that it does put doubts when you start comparing one player I know you love versus another player who plays a style I know you hate.

I feel a little icky saying that, but since you keep harping on this despite a lot of evidence that suggests Luka had a great deal of positive impact because his plus minus scores aren't especially high.

That's not to say Luka was definitely more impactful than Steph this year, but no plus/minus doesn't declaratively make the case why Steph was way ahead of him either.

[Gooner]

Curry is still the guy. He is the most impactful player in the league and most feared. He is the staple of a team that's like this generation's Chicago Bulls. It would be hard to convince me that anyone is better than Curry right now. It's one thing to get your numbers in a 5 out offense when everybody else is just standing at the 3 point line. It's other thing when you have a guy fully understanding a team concept, allowing everybody else to move and make decisions on offense, while still dominating in most spectacular ways.

[parsnips33]

I'm taking Steph. Not that I'm particularly unbiased but there you go

[Doctor MJ]

Curry was drastically more valuable in the regular season - if you don't have a sense for how weak Doncic's regular season impact was relative to his box score, well, you probably won't listen to me now, but it's a very noteworthy thing.
.

Doc,

I think its tough to take you at face value on this when you post things like Nash was better than Kidd when they were teammates in Phoenix at the start of Nash's career because of WS/48 and efficiency.

It can lead one to think at least that you are starting with a preference and then finding data that will support that preference. I don't think you are doing this intentionally, but that example is so far beyond the pale, that it does put doubts when you start comparing one player I know you love versus another player who plays a style I know you hate.

I feel a little icky saying that, but since you keep harping on this despite a lot of evidence that suggests Luka had a great deal of positive impact because his plus minus scores aren't especially high.

That's not to say Luka was definitely more impactful than Steph this year, but no plus/minus doesn't declaratively make the case why Steph was way ahead of him either.

Hmm, alright so:

1. I do try to say that Nash was possibly/arguably better than Kidd in Phoenix, but I probably end up being sloppy with that. If your quibble is how definitive I sound, I get that. My emphasis when I talk like this is really in addressing the notion that Nash showed no signs of life until way into his career, which was most definitely not the case.

2. Starting from a preference and then finding data. That's definitely a real danger for me and everyone else, as is the perception that I'm operating this way. I'm not going to claim I'm immune to the stuff I think we're all vulnerable to, but I do want to emphasize how often I deviate from simplistic predictors. People tend to think I'm all about +/- and then get confused when a specific analysis of mine goes beyond +/-, people tend to think I have a bias toward particular players and teams and then not notice how quickly I veer against them - I'm very critical of Curry's sloppy passing, his mouthguard throwing, Green's tendency toward sneaky flagrant worthy offenses, and I was quick to take seriously the idea that Poole should get suspended because of what Morant said happened (Morant was of course wrong, but until we knew that definitively, I didn't dismiss what he said).

I hope that people can see that while I have a tendency toward arguing with force in particular directions, I also have a history of changing my opinions while others stay within their same track more permanently.

3. Lot of evidence despite +/- aren't especially high. We can certainly dive back into the evidence, but to reiterate what I've said before:

- The regular season +/- for Luka is shockingly mediocre for a superstar, and that's not hyperbole.

- I've been quite loud about saying that I don't think that regular season +/- represents a ceiling of what he's capable of, and that I expect improvement in the playoffs...which we've absolutely seen.

- The other evidence that's coming to mind that makes Luka look good that came up recently was the impact on teammate shot quality. On that: That's a real thing...it's also something that a) is a sub-component of overall +/- rather than a counter indicators, and b) is something I noted we'd expect to overrate a player who shoots shots he shouldn't.

[tsherkin]

Just to add some stuff for discussion of Luka so it's all in one spot.

65 GP, 35.4 mpg, 28.4 ppg, 9.1 rpg, 8.7 apg, 4.5 tpg, 45.7% FG (21.6 FGA/g), 35.3% 3P (8.8 3PA/g), 74.4% FT (7.5 FTA/g)

110 ORTG, 40.4 PTS100, 13.0 REB100, 12.4 AST100

57.1% TS, 101 TS+ (+0.5% rTS), .159 WS/48, +6.4 OBPM, +5.9 VORP
+3.7 OBPM on BackPicks (6th-best in the league), +5.8 Offensive RAPTOR, +4.6 oEPM

Raw ON/OFF at b-ref has him at +4.4 for DAL ORTG and +4.3 opponent ORTG.


No commentary here, just the numbers for reference.

[falcolombardi]

Curry is still the guy. He is the most impactful player in the league and most feared. He is the staple of a team that's like this generation's Chicago Bulls. It would be hard to convince me that anyone is better than Curry right now. It's one thing to get your numbers in a 5 out offense when everybody else is just standing at the 3 point line. It's other thing when you have a guy fully understanding a team concept, allowing everybody else to move and make decisions on offense, while still dominating in most spectacular ways.

jokic and giannis are most likely better than hin this year

[LukaTheGOAT]

WCF game 3 3pt shooting for Mavs:

“Open” 3’s: 4-15 (26.7%)
“Wide open” 3’s: 8-28 (28.6%)

[Texas Chuck]

I struggle with this one. Going into the season I would have taken Curry without much hesitation. First two months of the regular season, Curry only cemented this. But the final 2/3 of the season Luka was brilliant and his team was better than Steph's. And Steph slumped and had his own injury. In the first round both were dealing with injury, but Steph was at least playing every game. Second round Luka definitely outplayed Steph and against a team that dominated the RS. And in the h2h matchup Luka's poor defense is giving a clear edge back to Curry.

Over the course of the entire season, Luka has been better longer. OTOH Steph has been better deeper into the playoffs and of course has a much longer track record of elite play, which definitely matters to me.

Push comes to shove, I'd say Curry is the better player.

[tsherkin]

WCF game 3 3pt shooting for Mavs:

“Open” 3’s: 4-15 (26.7%)
“Wide open” 3’s: 8-28 (28.6%)

Yeah. Bullock and Kleber were a combined 0/12 just on their own, and most of theirs were open 3s, many were wide open as well. It was a rough, rough night for Dallas. Had they each hit one, this would have been a very different game.

[capfan33]

Luka is ridiculous but still have to hand it to Curry. Just watching him throughout the playoffs, Luka at times pounds the rock a little too much for my liking, and moreover his defense can be pretty rough.

I understand his team isn't good enough but I think he still has some improvement to do before he can surpass Curry. And the fact that this is a valid comparison speaks volumes about Luka.