Serious Question: Since 2010, how many top 3 picks became busts?

[MagicTownBaller]

Here's who comes to mind right away for me

2010
2 - Evan Turner
3 - Derrick Favors

2011
2 - Derrick Williams
3 - Enes Kanter

2012
2 - Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

2013
1 - Anthony Bennett
2 - Victor Oladipo
3 - Otto Porter Jr

2014
2 - Jabari Parker

2015
3 - Jahill Okafor

2016
NONE

2017
1 - Markelle Fultz (As a Magic fan I hope he turns it around)
2 - Lonzo Ball

2018
2 - Marvin Bagley

2019
1 - Zion Williamson (Potentially)

2020
2 - James Wiseman

On average, at least 1.36 busts a year.


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[Rafael122]

I can't believe the Bucks picked Jabari over Embiid. Jeez...

List sounds about right although I think it's too early to call Bagley a bust. Don't know if I would call Oladipo one either, 2 time all start, all-NBA defensive team.

[Reeko]

Oladipo and Ball aren't busts. Are they what you hope for from a top 2 pick? Not necessarily, but they aren't busts.

[MavfanAus]

Not sure I'd consider Dipo and Lonzo "busts". Sure, Lonzo hasn't produced what you'd expect from a second overall pick, but he's far from a traditional "bust"

[og15]

What's your definition of bust, since that will determine how to answer the question. How are Lonzo and Oladipo busts for example. Even Favors has had a productive enough career to maybe escape the bust label

[DavidSterned]

Oladipo was probably the 4th best player in that woeful draft, and he was picked 2nd. How does that make him a bust? Neither is OPJ for that matter. Injuries have derailed both guys but they both were solid producers in an extremely underwhelming draft.

[-Luke-]

I wouldn't rank Oladipo and Lonzo as busts.

2013 was a weird draft with no real no 1. Nobody really saw what would become of Giannis. Oladipo made two All-Star teams and one All-NBA team before he got hurt. That's not great for a no 2 pick but in the context of that draft that's also not that bad.

Lonzo may be underwhelming as no 2 considered that Tatum was drafted right afterwards. But he's a pretty decent player and not a bust in my opinion

[Homer38]

I can't believe the Bucks picked Jabari over Embiid. Jeez...

List sounds about right although I think it's too early to call Bagley a bust. Don't know if I would call Oladipo one either, 2 time all start, all-NBA defensive team.

Embiid had a huge injury concern and it was the reason why he was not the first overall pick.He did not play in the first 2 years too

[MavfanAus]

Out of that list, I'd say Turner, Williams, MKG, Parker, Bennett and Okafor may qualify for the bust tag.

Parker is a tough one because prior to that injury, he was playing some ok ball for the Bucks.

Fultz and Bagley, they still have time. If they haven't improved within a few more years, then you could definitely make a case.

[Rafael122]

I can't believe the Bucks picked Jabari over Embiid. Jeez...

List sounds about right although I think it's too early to call Bagley a bust. Don't know if I would call Oladipo one either, 2 time all start, all-NBA defensive team.

Embiid had a huge injury concern and it was the reason why he was not the first overall pick.He did not play in the first 2 years too

Yeah but it's not like Embiid went from top pick to 27th, he was picked 3rd lol. Anyway, it doesn't matter, Bucks got Giannis and won a ring, but looking back that was definitely a head scratcher.

[HotelVitale]

I think we should redefine bust here less as 'were they a decent player' and more as 'did they do anything meaningful for the team drafting them?'; we often use 'bust' as almost an insult to the player--this guy flat sucks, why the hell'd they take him--but I think it's better to measure a bust by what the team got back on the investment.

With that in mind, my list would be a little different:
2010: NOT D Favors, who was the biggest part of the trade for Deron Williams (didn't work out but a huge move for the Nets at the time)
2011: Kanter/Freedom is close, he was a meaningful contributor to the Jazz and then they flipped him for some decent assets; I'd still put him here though
2012: Porter Jr doesn't feel right; he was a very good starter for the Wiz for long enough that he contributed meaningfully; then was injured and became a bad contract, so he feels more like an bad mid-career injury story than a bust
2013: Oladipo's close, disappointing for sure but then was a key part of the Ibaka trade--which was a disaster in the end but VO still had value to make it happen
2014: hmm, how does Wiggins not make your list? He was not only bad on the Wolves but it actually cost them pretty big assets to get out from his extension contract
2015: D Russell probably doesn't belong here but the only thing he ended up doing for the Lakers was allowing them to dump Mozgov's contract--ended up being useful but easily could've been nothing at all
2017: Ball is also close, since he was a small but key part of the AD trade so still brought them some meaningful value
2018: Bagley definitely belongs here, did nothing for the Kings and got them nothing
2019: I'll get killed for this but it wouldn't surprise me if Barrett ends up something like either Kanter/Freedom or OPJ some day; won't go into it so as not to inflame NYK fans but he might well end up not doing anything positive for the Knicks overall

[HotelVitale]

I can't believe the Bucks picked Jabari over Embiid. Jeez...

List sounds about right although I think it's too early to call Bagley a bust. Don't know if I would call Oladipo one either, 2 time all start, all-NBA defensive team.

Embiid had a huge injury concern and it was the reason why he was not the first overall pick.He did not play in the first 2 years too

Yeah but it's not like Embiid went from top pick to 27th, he was picked 3rd lol. Anyway, it doesn't matter, Bucks got Giannis and won a ring, but looking back that was definitely a head scratcher.

It really wasn't a headscratcher at the time, Embiid had crazy medical redflags which were proven true for the first two full years of his NBA career. Then he made one of the more unlikely injury recoveries in NBA history and actually became far more healthy as his career has progressed. Sixers just got blindly lucky there, if MIL had taken Embiid and the likely thing had happened you'd probably be sitting here saying 'what a bunch of clowns, guy came into the league with a med report like 95 year-old WWII vet and they blew a top-3 pick on him.'

Parker had his own injury concerns but he also just suffered the same fate as many busts. The NBA is a very specific and extremely fast environment, lots of guys can't translate their previous game and don't quite have the speed, touch, health, etc to adapt over time. That's why this whole thing is incredibly unpredictable, aint no one who has any real idea what's going to translate (most GMs and scouts are flat out wrong about that even if they get the pick right) and people have way less of an idea about how these young bodies and minds will adapt to the NBA game in the coming 2-5 years.

[Fencer reregistered]

if Wiggins wasn't a bust than neither was Oladipo.

[MrSparkle]

I think my metric for bust is any top-3 guy who compares to a MLE signing by the end of his first 4 year rookie contract (let alone worse).

I have pretty reasonably high expectations at top-3. If you’re not outplaying Robert Covington or Jae Crowder as a top-3 pick, then you had no business being drafted that high.

Wiggins, Favors, Otto, Lonzo, RJ, etc. had solid productive play by year 3, but I’d also categorize them as busts.

Wiggins 1 ASG appearance about 7 years later is more a tale of his late development in GSW, after Minnesota foolishly traded a risky FRP to dump him.

I’m more willing to excuse Jabari, cause he was actually producing like a star scorer, except he tore his ACL twice. Injuries aren’t a reason to bust. Zion isn’t a bust- he came in averaging massive production.

Busts come in and can’t impact games with the ball in their hands (some super defensive specialists are exceptions, though I can’t think of any in the top-3). Things is, an all-defensive type of specialist generally goes for the MLE (i.e. Caruso).

You’re really drafting a top-3 guy for his ball handling and/or scoring ability. IMO the main exception would be a two-way defensive big who could stretch/shoot ala JJJ, though he’s just a general super skilled talent for his size (and still kinda underwhelming career so far, compared to hopes/expectations).

[Mavrelous]

What a draft was in 2013, Giannis at 15 best player, Gobert at 27 2nd best and CJ McCollum at 10 3rd best, if it wasn't for the fact Giannis is going to end up ATG and top 25 player player is it would've been really underwhelming.

[165bows]

What a draft was in 2013, Giannis at 15 best player, Gobert at 27 2nd best and CJ McCollum at 10 3rd best, if it wasn't for the fact Giannis is going to end up ATG and top 25 player player is it would've been really underwhelming.

Another guy in there as well.

[imDatknicksTape]

okafor just came in at the wrong time. If he was drafted between 2007-2014, he would had an all star career

2013 draft class might be the worst ive seen

[jlokine]

i really hope wiseman gets healthy and some playing time so some of the ppl calling him a bust after 39 games can quiet down...

[og15]

okafor just came in at the wrong time. If he was drafted between 2007-2014, he would had an all star career

2013 draft class might be the worst ive seen

I don't know about that, Al Jefferson didn't have an All-Star career for example

[Harry Garris]

A top 3 pick turning into a solid but unspectacular player does not necessarily mean he's a bust. Some drafts are weaker than others and not every draft has 3 obvious future all star prospects in it.