2021-22 NBA Season Discussion

[BIGJ1ER]

I think Boston is an awful matchup for GSW, and I think they'd be my favourites to win it.

As someone who wants to see Curry and Dray get one more ring to cap their run of dominance, I'm rooting for Miami as I think that's a far easier matchup.

I just think their switchable bigs, rim protection, and entire stifling defensive scheme is just a bad matchup especially with Dray's offensive decline, and Klay's subpar performance. They'll just put Rob on Dray and cheat off and use him to blowup handoffs to the shooters. The one swing factor for GS will be Poole, if he can attack the brown or tatum matchup and score effectively he gives them a chance, since smart will likely be on Curry. Boston is also allowed to play very physically, which against Curry and GS's offball movement will give them an advantage in blowing up actions (I'm actually not a fan at all of how teams are allowed to defend Curry off the ball, it's blatant illegal defence/fouling imo, but that's a whole other discussion).

I think the Warriors D will give them problems for sure though and will keep them in the series.

[falcolombardi]

interesting fact

if boston or miami win the ring it will be the longest streak in league history (4) of different franchises winning a ring each year

edit: i guess it works with warriors too, although that one is a core that has won before

edit: i guess 77-81 counts although lakers and cektics won more rings later

[Doctor MJ]

interesting fact

if boston or miami win the ring it will be the longest streak in league history (4) of different franchises winning a ring each year

edit: i guess it works with warriors too, although that one is a core that has already won before

Interesting thing to ponder, though I'm not sure if it's true.

We're talking GS / TOR / LAL / MIL / new - so I'd argue that that could be seen as 5.

But beginning in the '70s we had GSW / BOS / POR / WAS / SEA /LAL - which I'd see as 6.

And if we go back to the '50s we get: MNL / SYR / PHI / BOS / STL - another 5 in a row.

Still, it's quite interesting to realize we've been living through what will be seen as parity when people look back from the future given that this is the era of the superteam.

[falcolombardi]

interesting fact

if boston or miami win the ring it will be the longest streak in league history (4) of different franchises winning a ring each year

edit: i guess it works with warriors too, although that one is a core that has already won before

Interesting thing to ponder, though I'm not sure if it's true.

We're talking GS / TOR / LAL / MIL / new - so I'd argue that that could be seen as 5.

But beginning in the '70s we had GSW / BOS / POR / WAS / SEA /LAL - which I'd see as 6.

And if we go back to the '50s we get: MNL / SYR / PHI / BOS / STL - another 5 in a row.

Still, it's quite interesting to realize we've been living through what will be seen as parity when people look back from the future given that this is the era of the superteam.

warriors went back to back so i dont coubt them as unique titles

75-81 counts, but even if you start with 77 causw celtics were a second ring of that core, that is 5 different teams in a row

basically, the only decade without a dinasty or two taking most rings is the 70's with 8 different franchises winning,

the 2020's, or at least the 19-28 period, is in a good pace to match that so far

i also believe that modern era being the era of the superteam is overstated, it is the era of stars joining other stars in free agency maybe, but stacked teams if anythingh feel more common in the past when salary caps and free agency were less of a issue for teams

for modern standards teams like 80's boston, lakers or 83 sixers were absolutely superteams for example

[70sFan]

Such a horrible start of the game cost Miami whole game. It's not even true that Celtics shut them down, they got the shots they wanted but couldn't make anything.

I'm not concerned, the series is still on the line and Miami has HCA.

[Gooner]

The conference finals have been complete ass. East and West. Warriors comeback game 2 is literally the only highlight

subjectively speaking, the playoffs have not been as i teresting as other seasons imo, dunno why

i enjoyed last year more

Last year was fantastic and I've been enjoying this year two as meh as this round has been. I'm loving that there's no super teams and it's all one superstar teams going at it where we didn't know what was going to happen before the playoffs started. 4 different teams could've been reasonably picked as east champions (5 if you include Brooklyn) and at least 2 in the West (Arguments could've been made for Dallas, Memphis, and Utah plus the MVP was in Denver). Loving the current talent distribution in the league even if the conference finals hasn't been great so far.

I agree with you on talent distribution and parity, it's good to see there are no super teams. But this 3 point style of basketball is a problem regardless of which team plays because it creates so many blowouts. People say this is the best way to play basketball but it doesn't look like it. Many games look like a basic 3 point contest and a team that gets cold gets blown out.

[sp6r=underrated]

The data below makes me less concerned. We haven't seen a huge reduction in close games. Instead it has just been an explosion of 20+ games. IMO, for fan enjoyment MOV doesn't change linearly so the transformation of 15 games into 30 games isn't that harmful. The disappearance of close game would be concerning but we've only seen a far smaller decline.

Code: Select all

Season   # of Post-Season Games   OT % of games   4 Points or Less % of Games   20 Points or More % of Games
2000          75                      4.00%                 29.33%                   9.33%
2001          71                      2.82%                 18.31%                   14.08%
2002          71                      7.04%                 23.94%                   9.86%
2010          82                      1.22%                 19.51%                   18.29%
2011          81                      7.41%                 24.69%                   8.64%
2012          84                      5.95%                 32.14%                   8.33%
2020          83                      7.23%                 19.28%                   14.46%
2021          85                      3.53%                 15.29%                   17.65%
2022          76                      1.32%                 21.05%                   28.95%

[eminence]

I'm not going to get directly involved in a GB comparison thread, but Klay vs Battier is a pretty interesting/close comp for me.

[Colbinii]

I'm not going to get directly involved in a GB comparison thread, but Klay vs Battier is a pretty interesting/close comp for me.

Peak? Prime? All-time?

[eminence]

I'm not going to get directly involved in a GB comparison thread, but Klay vs Battier is a pretty interesting/close comp for me.

Peak? Prime? All-time?

I was thinking prime, maybe peak. Not all-time.

[Doctor MJ]

I'm not going to get directly involved in a GB comparison thread, but Klay vs Battier is a pretty interesting/close comp for me.

I just don't think Battier was anything like the shooter Klay was, and that decides the comparison to me. Love Battier as a player, I'd take Klay without hesitation.

[Texas Chuck]

Okay Dallas, I just want to see fight tonight. It's okay to get swept, but don't go out like Phoenix did to you. Don't be satisfied to have gotten here. They have to beat you 4x to eliminate you and make them do that.

[Outside]

I'm not going to get directly involved in a GB comparison thread, but Klay vs Battier is a pretty interesting/close comp for me.

I understand that Battier is better defensively, but THAT much better? Peak/prime Klay may be overrated as a defender, especially a help defender, but he is very good at POA, and the difference on the offensive side is huge both in scoring production and spacing. Battier is a bit better in various categories, but marginally so. Battier has one season with better scoring (14.4, his rookie season) than Klay's worst season (12.5, also his rookie season), and that was at very bad efficiency (51.8 TS%). Battier has only two other seasons barely scoring double digits, while Klay has scored over 20 ppg in six of his nine seasons and has a 19.5 career average.

Peak Klay was really good. Go back and look at the 2019 finals before he got hurt, and that was Klay showing how good he could be.

26.0 pts
4.8 reb
2.4 ast
0.8 stl
70.6 TS% (that is not a typo)

And he did that against one of the best defenses we've seen in the finals.

Battier has nothing like that. Career, I suppose you can make a case, but... damn.

[falcolombardi]

i am low on klay and high on battier, i may choose either way

[jalengreen]

I'm not going to get directly involved in a GB comparison thread, but Klay vs Battier is a pretty interesting/close comp for me.

I understand that Battier is better defensively, but THAT much better? Peak/prime Klay may be overrated as a defender, especially a help defender, but he is very good at POA, and the difference on the offensive side is huge both in scoring production and spacing. Battier is a bit better in various categories, but marginally so. Battier has one season with better scoring (14.4, his rookie season) than Klay's worst season (12.5, also his rookie season), and that was at very bad efficiency (51.8 TS%). Battier has only two other seasons barely scoring double digits, while Klay has scored over 20 ppg in six of his nine seasons and has a 19.5 career average.

Peak Klay was really good. Go back and look at the 2019 finals before he got hurt, and that was Klay showing how good he could be.

26.0 pts
4.8 reb
2.4 ast
0.8 stl
70.6 TS% (that is not a typo)

And he did that against one of the best defenses we've seen in the finals.

Battier has nothing like that. Career, I suppose you can make a case, but... damn.

i agree with the idea.. but i dont like picking a series in which a streaky shooter was hot to say "this is their peak!"

the very series before, klay averaged 22 PPG on 47% TS%.

[falcolombardi]

I'm not going to get directly involved in a GB comparison thread, but Klay vs Battier is a pretty interesting/close comp for me.

I just don't think Battier was anything like the shooter Klay was, and that decides the comparison to me. Love Battier as a player, I'd take Klay without hesitation.

just as a question, how do you feel about klay somewhat mediocte impact metrics in the playoffs?

klay RAPM in 2015-2019 period is 0.2 in regular season, his career RAPM in the playoffs is -2

i know rapm is not a end all, be all, but correlated with warriors overall +/- metrics which dont change that much with or without klay, and his merely ok efficiency without much creation

a weak rapm like that suggest that whether ks klay playing with weaker lineups he is failing to lift "floor raise" or stronger starting lineups he is falling to improve "ceiling raise" it suggests klay presence is not correlating to much change in either direction when he plays


is it not possible that klay insane shooting nights that win games on their own....obscure a bit the bad shooting nights where he doesnt give his team that much ? he scores 20 points a game but barely above average efficiency 2015-2019

for every game he goes supernova there is one he shoots a ton and hits nothingh, his defense is solid but i dunno if it is THAT significant but i may be convinced here, and while he creates spacing as a shooting threat he doesnt give you too much else offensively when his shot is off

i dunno, i dont think this is some crazy comparision when battier always felt like a significatively better defender, and klay average efficiency scoring feels emptier than other players because he doesnt create that much

for every game he goes supernova there is one he shoots a ton and hits nothingh

[eminence]

What would folks estimate that at, approximately 1pt/100 possession impact difference based completely on their scoring? Spacing effects go Klay, very hard to accurately measure. I have Battier as better at pretty much everything else on the court, I dunno, doesn't seem as insurmountable as initial reactions paint it.

[Jaivl]

I'm not going to get directly involved in a GB comparison thread, but Klay vs Battier is a pretty interesting/close comp for me.

I understand that Battier is better defensively, but THAT much better?

Yes.

Shane Battier is one of the best non-C defenders all-time, bar none. Infinite stamina, a nightmare on ball, way ahead of his time on scouting tendencies, extremely smart on rotations and a decent paint presence to boot. #5 on the Top 10 defenders by position project, and I think he got underrated (quite better than peak Artest and Iggy on my book).

[parsnips33]

Even in the games where his shooting wasn't on, pre-injury Klay was always guarding lead guards and had the size and strength to switch on to pretty much anybody 1-4 on any given possession. I don't really get the idea that he's overrated defensively (I guess it depends on how he's "rated") I mean he's not Kawhi Leonard but his physical profile and footwork made him a pretty unique defensive weapon.

[falcolombardi]

What would folks estimate that at, approximately 1pt/100 game impact difference based completely on their scoring? Spacing effects go Klay, very hard to accurately measure. I have Battier as better at pretty much everything else on the court, I dunno, doesn't seem as insurmountable as initial reactions paint it.

klay scoring at average efficiency is useful but also not much of a needle mover

ironically the usual arguments for klay (portability as he doesnt dominate the ball to score) probably should go to battier here who doesnt take so many possesions to score league average scoring (without much creation for others)

and battier is probably/clearly a stromger defender which is even more portable than shooting

klay is usually seen as a "ceiling raiser" but warriors hardly changed much with klay on/off court either, his playoffs rapm durring warriors 5-year run is negative for example

dunno i dont want to be a hater but honestly a lot of thinghs point me to believing maybe klay was not that impactful