2021-22 NBA Season Discussion

[falcolombardi]

Even in the games where his shooting wasn't on, pre-injury Klay was always guarding lead guards and had the size and strength to switch on to pretty much anybody 1-4 on any given possession. I don't really get the idea that he's overrated defensively (I guess it depends on how he's "rated") I mean he's not Kawhi Leonard but his physical profile and footwork made him a pretty unique defensive weapon.

i dont doubt his on ball defense is solid, but do we have data suggesting it made a significant impact in results?

[eminence]

Even in the games where his shooting wasn't on, pre-injury Klay was always guarding lead guards and had the size and strength to switch on to pretty much anybody 1-4 on any given possession. I don't really get the idea that he's overrated defensively (I guess it depends on how he's "rated") I mean he's not Kawhi Leonard but his physical profile and footwork made him a pretty unique defensive weapon.

I'd take Battier over Kawhi defensively generally.

[Jaivl]

Have Klay as a better player, peak, prime and basically the same all-time wise despite his health issues. But there's **zero** argument for his defense being even on the same stratosphere. Like, not even 3 tiers below.

Even in the games where his shooting wasn't on, pre-injury Klay was always guarding lead guards and had the size and strength to switch on to pretty much anybody 1-4 on any given possession. I don't really get the idea that he's overrated defensively (I guess it depends on how he's "rated") I mean he's not Kawhi Leonard but his physical profile and footwork made him a pretty unique defensive weapon.

But Battier *is* Kawhi Leonard. Or better.

[Outside]

I'm not going to get directly involved in a GB comparison thread, but Klay vs Battier is a pretty interesting/close comp for me.

I understand that Battier is better defensively, but THAT much better? Peak/prime Klay may be overrated as a defender, especially a help defender, but he is very good at POA, and the difference on the offensive side is huge both in scoring production and spacing. Battier is a bit better in various categories, but marginally so. Battier has one season with better scoring (14.4, his rookie season) than Klay's worst season (12.5, also his rookie season), and that was at very bad efficiency (51.8 TS%). Battier has only two other seasons barely scoring double digits, while Klay has scored over 20 ppg in six of his nine seasons and has a 19.5 career average.

Peak Klay was really good. Go back and look at the 2019 finals before he got hurt, and that was Klay showing how good he could be.

26.0 pts
4.8 reb
2.4 ast
0.8 stl
70.6 TS% (that is not a typo)

And he did that against one of the best defenses we've seen in the finals.

Battier has nothing like that. Career, I suppose you can make a case, but... damn.

i agree with the idea.. but i dont like picking a series in which a streaky shooter was hot to say "this is their peak!"

the very series before, klay averaged 22 PPG on 47% TS%.

Feel free to point out Battier's great PS series.

This is not to say Klay is an elite player on the all-time lists. He's not. But compared to Shane Battier?

As for cherry-picking the series against Toronto, if we can downgrade a player for how they perform in the finals, we should be able to give credit for a great performance.

[parsnips33]

Definitely not trying to say Klay is better or all that close to Battier defensively, just wanted to speak a little on his defense

[Doctor MJ]

I'm not going to get directly involved in a GB comparison thread, but Klay vs Battier is a pretty interesting/close comp for me.

I just don't think Battier was anything like the shooter Klay was, and that decides the comparison to me. Love Battier as a player, I'd take Klay without hesitation.

just as a question, how do you feel about klay somewhat mediocte impact metrics in the playoffs?

klay RAPM in 2015-2019 period is 0.2 in regular season, his career RAPM in the playoffs is -2

i know rapm is not a end all, be all, but correlated with warriors overall +/- metrics which dont change that much with or without klay, and his merely ok efficiency without much creation

a weak rapm like that suggest that whether ks klay playing with weaker lineups he is failing to lift "floor raise" or stronger starting lineups he is falling to improve "ceiling raise" it suggests klay presence is not correlating to much change in either direction when he plays


is it not possible that klay insane shooting nights that win games on their own....obscure a bit the bad shooting nights where he doesnt give his team that much ? he scores 20 points a game but barely above average efficiency 2015-2019

for every game he goes supernova there is one he shoots a ton and hits nothingh, his defense is solid but i dunno if it is THAT significant but i may be convinced here, and while he creates spacing as a shooting threat he doesnt give you too much else offensively when his shot is off

i dunno, i dont think this is some crazy comparision when battier always felt like a significatively better defender, and klay average efficiency scoring feels emptier than other players because he doesnt create that much

for every game he goes supernova there is one he shoots a ton and hits nothingh

Good points for consideration.

Speaking generally I tend not to worry too much about guys with meh regression data on great teams. It's an indicator that the guy isn't having night & day impact to be sure, but if the team is having great success with him on the floor, then he's probably a part of that success. It's meaningful enough to me that I've been on the Dray > Klay bandwagon for forever, but not enough that I've ever seriously thought that Klay was a problem for the Warriors.

I will say though that I'm surprised that Klay's on/off data is so consistently not great in the playoffs - which can of course cause RAPM problems - so I feel like I should do more research on that.

[TheGOATRises007]

Klay is one of the most overrated defenders(even players) ever.

He has a negative DBPM in every single season of his career for the RS.

I'm pretty sure the other impact stats paint his defense as average or even negative.

I'd wager the Warriors' net rating improves when Klay is sitting.

[parsnips33]

Even in the games where his shooting wasn't on, pre-injury Klay was always guarding lead guards and had the size and strength to switch on to pretty much anybody 1-4 on any given possession. I don't really get the idea that he's overrated defensively (I guess it depends on how he's "rated") I mean he's not Kawhi Leonard but his physical profile and footwork made him a pretty unique defensive weapon.

i dont doubt his on ball defense is solid, but do we have data suggesting it made a significant impact in results?

Honestly I don't know enough about the way defensive impact stats are calculated to speak definitively, but just from watching a lot of Warriors games his defensive impact is clear to me. I wonder if rotations and/or low block and steal numbers are a contributing factor?

[jalengreen]

I understand that Battier is better defensively, but THAT much better? Peak/prime Klay may be overrated as a defender, especially a help defender, but he is very good at POA, and the difference on the offensive side is huge both in scoring production and spacing. Battier is a bit better in various categories, but marginally so. Battier has one season with better scoring (14.4, his rookie season) than Klay's worst season (12.5, also his rookie season), and that was at very bad efficiency (51.8 TS%). Battier has only two other seasons barely scoring double digits, while Klay has scored over 20 ppg in six of his nine seasons and has a 19.5 career average.

Peak Klay was really good. Go back and look at the 2019 finals before he got hurt, and that was Klay showing how good he could be.

26.0 pts
4.8 reb
2.4 ast
0.8 stl
70.6 TS% (that is not a typo)

And he did that against one of the best defenses we've seen in the finals.

Battier has nothing like that. Career, I suppose you can make a case, but... damn.

i agree with the idea.. but i dont like picking a series in which a streaky shooter was hot to say "this is their peak!"

the very series before, klay averaged 22 PPG on 47% TS%.

Feel free to point out Battier's great PS series.

This is not to say Klay is an elite player on the all-time lists. He's not. But compared to Shane Battier?

As for cherry-picking the series against Toronto, if we can downgrade a player for how they perform in the finals, we should be able to give credit for a great performance.

i wouldn't point out battier's great PS series because i think that's a fundamentally poor approach lol.

if a player is hypothetically a consistent +2 while another player is inconsistent, ranging from +4 to -1 and we just pick out the moment in which they're a +4 to show how much better they are, that's not meaningful IMO

klay thompson was the same player in the 2019 WCF as he was in the 2019 finals. and his production varied *GREATLY.* i don't think it's reasonable to just pick the times he was hot to say, oh yeah that's peak klay so he's better. because it ignores the times where he takes the same high volume of shots with a sub 50% TS%

[falcolombardi]

I just don't think Battier was anything like the shooter Klay was, and that decides the comparison to me. Love Battier as a player, I'd take Klay without hesitation.

just as a question, how do you feel about klay somewhat mediocte impact metrics in the playoffs?

klay RAPM in 2015-2019 period is 0.2 in regular season, his career RAPM in the playoffs is -2

i know rapm is not a end all, be all, but correlated with warriors overall +/- metrics which dont change that much with or without klay, and his merely ok efficiency without much creation

a weak rapm like that suggest that whether ks klay playing with weaker lineups he is failing to lift "floor raise" or stronger starting lineups he is falling to improve "ceiling raise" it suggests klay presence is not correlating to much change in either direction when he plays


is it not possible that klay insane shooting nights that win games on their own....obscure a bit the bad shooting nights where he doesnt give his team that much ? he scores 20 points a game but barely above average efficiency 2015-2019

for every game he goes supernova there is one he shoots a ton and hits nothingh, his defense is solid but i dunno if it is THAT significant but i may be convinced here, and while he creates spacing as a shooting threat he doesnt give you too much else offensively when his shot is off

i dunno, i dont think this is some crazy comparision when battier always felt like a significatively better defender, and klay average efficiency scoring feels emptier than other players because he doesnt create that much

for every game he goes supernova there is one he shoots a ton and hits nothingh

Good points for consideration.

Speaking generally I tend not to worry too much about guys with meh regression data on great teams. It's an indicator that the guy isn't having night & day impact to be sure, but if the team is having great success with him on the floor, then he's probably a part of that success. It's meaningful enough to me that I've been on the Dray > Klay bandwagon for forever, but not enough that I've ever seriously thought that Klay was a problem for the Warriors.

I will say though that I'm surprised that Klay's on/off data is so consistently not great in the playoffs - which can of course cause RAPM problems - so I feel like I should do more research on that.

for the record i am not trying to suggest klay was a negative or anythingh, he is a clear positive and the fact he often is replaced in lineups by a impact player as iguodala in that period means the negative rapm doesnt mean that much

i just am seeing a lot of thinghs, box score statistical (efficiency, just average assists) impact metrics (mediocre plus-minus impact) and eye test ( frequent off nights for a player who mostly depends on jumpshooting, sonewhat low free throws and paint attacking, not being a great creator of shots)

that make me think maybe he is not what i would call a clear cut star and more like an above average starting wing

[Doctor MJ]

But Battier *is* Kawhi Leonard. Or better.

So, I'm someone who has always been on the "Battier is very underrated" side of things, but this seem way beyond my assessment of him, and also just a bit strange by body type.

Kawhi is called the "the Klaw" because he's got super-long arms and super-big hands, and those are at the core to what make his defense elite. That's not what Battier is known for.

Now, you can be better on defense than Kawhi using other techniques, but you generally wouldn't say one guy "is" another guy "or better" if they don't use the same approach.

[Jaivl]

I understand that Battier is better defensively, but THAT much better? Peak/prime Klay may be overrated as a defender, especially a help defender, but he is very good at POA, and the difference on the offensive side is huge both in scoring production and spacing. Battier is a bit better in various categories, but marginally so. Battier has one season with better scoring (14.4, his rookie season) than Klay's worst season (12.5, also his rookie season), and that was at very bad efficiency (51.8 TS%). Battier has only two other seasons barely scoring double digits, while Klay has scored over 20 ppg in six of his nine seasons and has a 19.5 career average.

Peak Klay was really good. Go back and look at the 2019 finals before he got hurt, and that was Klay showing how good he could be.

26.0 pts
4.8 reb
2.4 ast
0.8 stl
70.6 TS% (that is not a typo)

And he did that against one of the best defenses we've seen in the finals.

Battier has nothing like that. Career, I suppose you can make a case, but... damn.

i agree with the idea.. but i dont like picking a series in which a streaky shooter was hot to say "this is their peak!"

the very series before, klay averaged 22 PPG on 47% TS%.

Feel free to point out Battier's great PS series.

This is not to say Klay is an elite player on the all-time lists. He's not. But compared to Shane Battier?

As for cherry-picking the series against Toronto, if we can downgrade a player for how they perform in the finals, we should be able to give credit for a great performance.

We have him building top defenses out of thin air basically every single year. #5 with young Pau, half a season of James Posey and a bunch of top tier defenders like Jason Williams and Mike Miller. #2 with young Pau, old Eddie Jones and basically nothing else.

And on 2010, the only season he missed some games,
2010 Rockets, games Battier played, Battier ON 107.45 DRtg
2010 Rockets, games Battier did not play, Battier OFF 114.52 DRtg

That's a consistent trend of massive defensive impact, no matter the situation. Klay has nothing as impressive.

He has a negative DBPM in every single season of his career for the RS.

I'm pretty sure the other impact stats paint his defense as average or even negative.

DBPM is not an impact stat though, it's pretty much one step above trash.

[Doctor MJ]

just as a question, how do you feel about klay somewhat mediocte impact metrics in the playoffs?

klay RAPM in 2015-2019 period is 0.2 in regular season, his career RAPM in the playoffs is -2

i know rapm is not a end all, be all, but correlated with warriors overall +/- metrics which dont change that much with or without klay, and his merely ok efficiency without much creation

a weak rapm like that suggest that whether ks klay playing with weaker lineups he is failing to lift "floor raise" or stronger starting lineups he is falling to improve "ceiling raise" it suggests klay presence is not correlating to much change in either direction when he plays


is it not possible that klay insane shooting nights that win games on their own....obscure a bit the bad shooting nights where he doesnt give his team that much ? he scores 20 points a game but barely above average efficiency 2015-2019

for every game he goes supernova there is one he shoots a ton and hits nothingh, his defense is solid but i dunno if it is THAT significant but i may be convinced here, and while he creates spacing as a shooting threat he doesnt give you too much else offensively when his shot is off

i dunno, i dont think this is some crazy comparision when battier always felt like a significatively better defender, and klay average efficiency scoring feels emptier than other players because he doesnt create that much

for every game he goes supernova there is one he shoots a ton and hits nothingh

Good points for consideration.

Speaking generally I tend not to worry too much about guys with meh regression data on great teams. It's an indicator that the guy isn't having night & day impact to be sure, but if the team is having great success with him on the floor, then he's probably a part of that success. It's meaningful enough to me that I've been on the Dray > Klay bandwagon for forever, but not enough that I've ever seriously thought that Klay was a problem for the Warriors.

I will say though that I'm surprised that Klay's on/off data is so consistently not great in the playoffs - which can of course cause RAPM problems - so I feel like I should do more research on that.

for the record i am not trying to suggest klay was a negative or anythingh, he is a clear positive and the fact he often is replaced in lineups by a impact player as iguodala in that period means the negative rapm doesnt mean that much

i just am seeing a lot of thinghs, box score statistical (efficiency, just average assists) impact metrics (mediocre plus-minus impact) and eye test ( frequent off nights for a player who mostly depends on jumpshooting, sonewhat low free throws and paint attacking, not being a great creator of shots)

that make me think maybe he is not what i would call a clear cut star and more like an above average starting wing

I get that conclusions, but it's hard for me to dismiss the scoring threat he poses along with the fact that he was regularly tasked with guarding the best guard on the opposing team. To me you're quite lucky to get what he gave you (in his prime) from a 3rd banana.

[Jaivl]

But Battier *is* Kawhi Leonard. Or better.

So, I'm someone who has always been on the "Battier is very underrated" side of things, but this seem way beyond my assessment of him, and also just a bit strange by body type.

Kawhi is called the "the Klaw" because he's got super-long arms and super-big hands, and those are at the core to what make his defense elite. That's not what Battier is known for.

Now, you can be better on defense than Kawhi using other techniques, but you generally wouldn't say one guy "is" another guy "or better" if they don't use the same approach.

Ah I was strictly referring to overall ability and impact, not the means to it.

[Doctor MJ]

Even in the games where his shooting wasn't on, pre-injury Klay was always guarding lead guards and had the size and strength to switch on to pretty much anybody 1-4 on any given possession. I don't really get the idea that he's overrated defensively (I guess it depends on how he's "rated") I mean he's not Kawhi Leonard but his physical profile and footwork made him a pretty unique defensive weapon.

I'd take Battier over Kawhi defensively generally.

Hard for me to imagine taking Battier over young Kawhi.

I do think Battier's intellectual approach aged better than Kawhi's more physical approach.

[falcolombardi]

Even in the games where his shooting wasn't on, pre-injury Klay was always guarding lead guards and had the size and strength to switch on to pretty much anybody 1-4 on any given possession. I don't really get the idea that he's overrated defensively (I guess it depends on how he's "rated") I mean he's not Kawhi Leonard but his physical profile and footwork made him a pretty unique defensive weapon.

I'd take Battier over Kawhi defensively generally.

Hard for me to imagine taking Battier over young Kawhi.

I do think Battier's intellectual approach aged better than Kawhi's more physical approach.

but we have hindsight knowledge of how good kawhi offense would become, if we talk defense only is a much more interesting discussion

[Doctor MJ]

I'd take Battier over Kawhi defensively generally.

Hard for me to imagine taking Battier over young Kawhi.

I do think Battier's intellectual approach aged better than Kawhi's more physical approach.

but we have hindsight knowledge of how good kawhi offense would become, if we talk defense only is a much more interesting discussion

Oh no doubt, but I'm just saying, it's hard for me to pick peak Battier defense over peak Kawhi defense. It would be easier for me to see a case for Battier having a better overall defensive career.

[falcolombardi]

Good points for consideration.

Speaking generally I tend not to worry too much about guys with meh regression data on great teams. It's an indicator that the guy isn't having night & day impact to be sure, but if the team is having great success with him on the floor, then he's probably a part of that success. It's meaningful enough to me that I've been on the Dray > Klay bandwagon for forever, but not enough that I've ever seriously thought that Klay was a problem for the Warriors.

I will say though that I'm surprised that Klay's on/off data is so consistently not great in the playoffs - which can of course cause RAPM problems - so I feel like I should do more research on that.

for the record i am not trying to suggest klay was a negative or anythingh, he is a clear positive and the fact he often is replaced in lineups by a impact player as iguodala in that period means the negative rapm doesnt mean that much

i just am seeing a lot of thinghs, box score statistical (efficiency, just average assists) impact metrics (mediocre plus-minus impact) and eye test ( frequent off nights for a player who mostly depends on jumpshooting, sonewhat low free throws and paint attacking, not being a great creator of shots)

that make me think maybe he is not what i would call a clear cut star and more like an above average starting wing

I get that conclusions, but it's hard for me to dismiss the scoring threat he poses along with the fact that he was regularly tasked with guarding the best guard on the opposing team. To me you're quite lucky to get what he gave you (in his prime) from a 3rd banana.

you could actually argue that klay was "only" the fourth most important player in the warriors behind curry/dray/iguodala first, then behind curry/ durant/ draymond later

being 3rd option in offense =/= being the third most important player and klay had two or even three mvp level impact players in dray (borderline mvp impact), durant (mvp player), curry (mvp player with historical impact metrics) and other really talented players like iggy taking care of thinghs like playmaking or defending the opposite tean best player

yes, he was unusually good for his place in the pecking order as a 4th best player or 3rd option but more because his team was so talented than he was "overqualified" for his place in the warriors "depth chart"

[Doctor MJ]

for the record i am not trying to suggest klay was a negative or anythingh, he is a clear positive and the fact he often is replaced in lineups by a impact player as iguodala in that period means the negative rapm doesnt mean that much

i just am seeing a lot of thinghs, box score statistical (efficiency, just average assists) impact metrics (mediocre plus-minus impact) and eye test ( frequent off nights for a player who mostly depends on jumpshooting, sonewhat low free throws and paint attacking, not being a great creator of shots)

that make me think maybe he is not what i would call a clear cut star and more like an above average starting wing

I get that conclusions, but it's hard for me to dismiss the scoring threat he poses along with the fact that he was regularly tasked with guarding the best guard on the opposing team. To me you're quite lucky to get what he gave you (in his prime) from a 3rd banana.

you could actually argue that klay was "only" the fourth most important player in the warriors behind curry/dray/iguodala first, then behind curry/ durant/ draymond later

being 3rd option in offense =/= being the third most important player and klay had two or even three mvp level impact players in dray (borderline mvp impact), durant (mvp player), curry (mvp player with historical impact metrics) and other really talented players like iggy taking care of thinghs like playmaking or defending the opposite tean best player

yes, he was unusually good for his place in the pecking order as a 4th best player or 3rd option but more because his team was so talented than he was "overqualified" for his place in the warriors "depth chart"

I'm skeptical that Iggy was more valuable than Klay - and I do like Iggy more than most.

Re: option. I think Klay was pretty clearly the 2nd option on offense prior to KD. It's a tricky term because a point guard can be something less than his team's Top 2 scorer and still clearly seem like a top 2 option, but in this case, as much as I admire Dray's offensive work, this was never a case of him being a major shooting risk and just being more passing-oriented than most. The Kerr Warrior offense was built around the threat of the Splash Brothers, Green just ended up being the perfect guy to fit with the Bros.

[eminence]

I'd probably put Dray as the 2A offensive guy in '16 over Klay at 2B, but Klay was certainly the 2nd option in '15.

I'd go with Klay slightly over Iguodala for #3 over the two pre-KD years.