Endless Loop wrote:I have a question for our experts here (because I'm not one!)
It seems like the most difficult way to transform a mediocre team like the Wizards quickly is through the draft and player moves. You only get one first rounder. It's gonna be number 9 or 10, etc. Not normally where you get somebody who will make an impact. (Yeah for SURE there are a bunch of exceptions to this! But looking at the Wizards these last years, those exceptions didn't include Rui, Deni or Corey.). Player moves can help for sure, but the most likely way to achieve success with trades is trading for somebody of equal talent that's a better fit. (It's not a strategy to hope your trading partner is an idiot.) It's hard to "win" a trade- not impossible, but not easy... And signing free agents is a tough way to make big improvements unless you have a lot of cap space.
An easier thing to try is to change the head coach. You certainly can argue that Unseld didn't do a great job this last year. While it's true that Spoelstras are hard to find, it's also true that there's nothing preventing the Wizards from trying. They'd end up eating some salary, but probably the total amount they'd eat would be less than one year of Bertrans. I think teams are too reluctant to make head coaching changes- certainly the Wizards are.
IMO the easiest way to improve the team would be to make significant changes with assistant coaches. I looked at the Wizards' assistant coach roster. It's a bunch of career assistants. It would have been nice to see some people from unusual backgrounds, some young blood, etc. Fresh eyes and fresh outlooks. Like the Redskins had a few years ago. If Wes is a good listener, then you can keep him around and just provide him with more support on the bench. The Wiz need to shore up Wes' weaknesses with better assistants. This may not make a huge difference, but I think it absolutely would help.
So I hope the Wizards hit it big in the draft. I hope they make a great trade. But at the very least, given the spotty coaching results this last year, they've got no excuse not to make wholesale changes on the bench. It's nuts to stick with continuity for continuity's sake when you're mediocre.
No coaching staff in the world can elevate mediocre talent into a contender. Especially when we are talking assistant coaches. By contender we are talking about being in the conversation for a championship. Championships tend to be won by the consensus best player in the league, unless that player is having a down year (injuries, etc) or we are between eras when the next consensus MVP has not yet arisen.
SO. You are right that attempting to draft your way to a better team cannot be done quickly. Likewise trades. Likewise coaching changes. Likewise even a new GM who is in charge of all of those things. The Wizards have decades of bad roster decisions behind them and still are lacking the roster that could have been developed with picks by the last GM. Our arsenal of options is out of bullets. You have to get used to the idea we are likely are not going to get good quickly. UNLESS we luck into that consensus MVP.
In the Wizards case we are handicapped in part by what you say: that we will generally be drafting 10-12. Our owner has stated that he does not believe in rebuilding. Especially tanking. He wants to try to win every game even when it will likely result in worse odds to actually get better. This means at the end of almost every year we tend to go on a run against teams that ARE tanking ,or are out of the playoffs and uninterested in playing hard, or against playoff teams that are resting their starters. Our odds of landing that top 4 pick commonly shrink over the last month from 40% to 13% to less. Especially now that the '10th seed' is an actual thing, not an ironic joke.
Additionally, we are handicapped by the fact that Ted likes to be perceived as loyal, in rewarding the last player we did draft highly, with a max contract that he does not deserve based on either his production or upside. So. We will have a large chunk of our salary cap tied up in an at best 'pretty good' player, who is coming off rehab.
Tommy has not been shy though about pulling off big trades. His draft record may be sub-optimal. But with his trades he has generally gotten younger. Generally picked up both a prospect and a pick. Often picked up decent players for free when they were waived from a team. He has radically re-made the roster in a short time and has zero ego in admitting he made a mistake and swiftly moving on from a poor fit. Also his moves tend to come out of nowhere and are not telegraphed in advance. Nobody predicted a Dinwiddie for Porzingis swap.
So the hope is laid at the capacity of Tommy to surprise us. In a good way. By adding more OPPORTUNITIES to shave %'s in our favor. A large % of trades are equal. A small % of draft picks are all-stars. The majority of free agent signings barely move the win/loss total since the best players tend to be locked in to long contracts and few free agents will choose a franchise with a long history of losses. We need wins in all those opportunities (draft, trade, FA signings) over a prolonged period of time. And we need more of those opportunities. More picks, more assets to trade to consolidate role players into stars, or into draft picks that may become stars. We need to trade for FAs that have uncovered upside and then uncover it. Chemistry, development, or a new situation that allows them to break out where they were suppressed before. More chances for lightning to strike.
I don't see how anyone can fault Wes for this year's failures. Especially given the undue influence that Beal has on this roster. Beal was gunning for a max contract this year, but was hit by rules changes that kneecapped his game. But Big contracts are only earned by players with big scoring totals -- even if they are inefficiently gunning to earn those numbers. So Beal had a problem sharing with Dinwiddie since that cut into his money. Then he got COVID three times. And his grandmother passed. So our 'best' player was working against the team's interest and was unable to perform. No coach in the league ever would win with a handful of journeymen and a demotivating star with too much influence.
Honestly our best chance at rebuilding would be if Beal asked for a trade to a contender. The contender traded a mess of contracts to land him. Then the contender flamed out spectacularly, raising the value of those extra chances at a franchise player in the right draft. Most of the time the best player in the draft is taken #1 or #2. Then it is a crapshoot. So the smart play is to either draft really high, or get extra picks late. I don't think every draft has that hidden all star late. And the all-stars that teams uncover late often are late bloomers and need time to season. So my belief is that we don't need to trade down and get 4 extra picks in any one particular draft. But if we get future draft picks and every year are selecting with an extra pick in both the 1st and 2nd round, we are good. A team has 17 slots on the roster (15 permanent and 2 two-way players). You need to maximize the chance to develop the guys you have.
THAT is when your assistant coaches come into play: player development. But for that you really need at least 3 years to see if a player is improving. Many players breakout in their 3rd year if they do develop with PT and all. But to see if they break out they need to get actual live minutes. And behind the scenes training on the areas where they are weak.
We cannot supermax Beal.
