Serious Question: Since 2010, how many top 3 picks became busts?

[Exp0sed]

Yeah but it's not like Embiid went from top pick to 27th, he was picked 3rd lol. Anyway, it doesn't matter, Bucks got Giannis and won a ring, but looking back that was definitely a head scratcher.

I don't think it's such a head scratcher, it makes perfect sense
Not like Embiid was a sure thing, he was a Heavy big man with considerable injury concerns
since Wiggins and Jabari were both seen and touted as "elite" prospects, Cle and Mil decided to play it safe, fearing wasting a 1-2 pick on a potential complete bust (because of injuries mostly)

after Wiggins and Parker, no1 was seen as true high ceiling prospect and Philly decided to take the gamble and shoot for the stars

they could have passed too, he could have fell a few spots more until he found the team willing to swing for high risk\high reward fence. The lower down he falls - the more it makes sense to take him there

as it so happened the buck stopped at #3, nothing head scratching about it imo

It was a foot injury on a 7'2" guy, although he was nowhere near the weight he is now, I agree. Particularly when he emerged a little later into the draft process.

Wiggins and Jabari had been highly touted prospects for years. Both were seen as can't miss super-star prospects. Embiid may have been acknowledged by quite a few as the highest ceiling (he was so much more lithe and agile at Kansas and stood out next to a passive Wiggs), but that injury scared the **** out of a lot of GM's.

and rightfully so..
he did miss his first two season and even though he hasn't been bothered by major foot injuries since - he did turn out to be very injury prone. A major injury with his frame is never a good indicator of future health and lonegevity

[Mavrelous]

What a draft was in 2013, Giannis at 15 best player, Gobert at 27 2nd best and CJ McCollum at 10 3rd best, if it wasn't for the fact Giannis is going to end up ATG and top 25 player player is it would've been really underwhelming.

Another guy in there as well.

Who?

[165bows]

Oh my bad. I thought Jokić was that year too. Some pretty tough scouting results that couple years though.

[Backcountry]

To answer this question properly (and to create even more argument, since that is the purpose of RealGM after all...), you have to have quantified measurables. You can't just say "Zion is a bust" without any true determining factors.

So my proposal is to say: if anyone drafted after a player in the top 3 is better than that player, then those who aren't better than that lower pick are a bust.

So revising the list, it looks like this:

2010: no change (I give Wall the benefit of the doubt that George still hasn't proven himself better - but it's very subjective)
2011: add Irving, because Klay, Kawhi, & Jimmy all have proven to be better players on the whole (taking team play and overall reliability into account)
2012: add Beal because Dame is better.
2013: no change, because Giannis.
2014: add Wiggins, because of Embiid (I'm rating Embiid equal to Jokic in this case)
2015: definitely add Russell because of Booker at #13
2016: a tough one. I'd have to add Simmons, only because, even though he was ROY, made All-NBA teams etc., he never really seemed to improve in the areas that he could have. Until further evidence is presented to support him not being included, I'd have to say I'd currently rate Brown and Ingram above him, and possibly even Siakam at this point.
2017: no change, mainly because of Tatum, but you could also throw Mitchell and Bam into that comparison.
2018: sorry, you have to add Ayton because of Luka, it's just a fact. Can't start ignoring the parameters at this stage.
2019: have to also leave Zion on the list until it is proven that he isn't. He should still be better than Ja, but injuries have kept him from proving it.
2020: Wiseman because of Ball. Even though they are still young, Wiseman really would have to shine to take his name off this list.

So there you have it. The only thing is I still didn't quantify "better than".

[TrustFundBaby]

Solid list OP.

I'd add Wiggins, arguably Simmons considering his hype and subsequent lack of progress culminating in his flat out quitting of ball

And I'd remove Oladipo, he was really good in IND, injury wasn't his fault.

Otherwise agreed on the rest

[dhsilv2]

Here's who comes to mind right away for me

What do you consider a "bust"? Kanter for example is still in the league (sorta). Had some ok years, just couldn't defend anything. Where as Anthony Bennett is a "true" bust in my eyes. An absolute disaster of a pick, out of the league in 4 years.

[og15]

okafor just came in at the wrong time. If he was drafted between 2007-2014, he would had an all star career

2013 draft class might be the worst ive seen

I don't know about that, Al Jefferson didn't have an All-Star career for example

He had a serious injury, and eventually made an all-NBA team despite it.

Do people look back at Al Jefferson and call his career an All Star career though? The point I'm suggesting is that Al was better than Okafor, and certainly better defensively even though that wasn't his strong suit, and he didn't have an All Star career, so why would Okafor?

[dhsilv2]

okafor just came in at the wrong time. If he was drafted between 2007-2014, he would had an all star career

2013 draft class might be the worst ive seen

No, Okafor would have been a bad player in any era because he was such a poor defender. Even in the early 2000s when the NBA was as slow and post centric as ever you still couldn't play a center who was a sieve on defense.

I think you're kinda both right.

Okafor is the type of bad player who probably would have been named all-star in an earlier era simply because he was a scorer.

Shareef Abdur-Rahim or Al Jefferson were both scorers who made one combined allstar game. Those seem like high comps for his best case to me.

[dhsilv2]

No, Okafor would have been a bad player in any era because he was such a poor defender. Even in the early 2000s when the NBA was as slow and post centric as ever you still couldn't play a center who was a sieve on defense.

I think you're kinda both right.

Okafor is the type of bad player who probably would have been named all-star in an earlier era simply because he was a scorer.

Okafor would have had a chance at an all star team during that weird time period from 2008-2014 where we had a dearth of star level centers in the league and we still weren't totally playing modern basketball yet so traditional centers still had to take up an all star spot. Maybe he makes it over Roy Hibbert. Okafor wasn't making an all star team in the 80s or 90s though.

You really going to tell me he could take an allstar spot over Jamaal Magloire in 2004

[LBJKB24MJ23]

if you're expecting the top 3 picks to be superstars, the yes, everyone that was listed by OP is a bust.

[Battletrigger]

If Lonzo Ball and Victor Oladipo are bust, Andrew Wiggins is another one.

[MrGoat]

Wiggins was one of the most hyped prospects ever, even by #1 standards. With some of the guys on this list he definitely belongs.

[Fencer reregistered]

I don't know about that, Al Jefferson didn't have an All-Star career for example

He had a serious injury, and eventually made an all-NBA team despite it.

Do people look back at Al Jefferson and call his career an All Star career though? The point I'm suggesting is that Al was better than Okafor, and certainly better defensively even though that wasn't his strong suit, and he didn't have an All Star career, so why would Okafor?

Since Jefferson made a single All-NBA team post-injury, my guess is that he would have had a few all-star appearances if healthy.

[MagicTownBaller]

So Dragan Bender on the 2016 NBA Draft wasn't a Bust? Kris Dunn? Marquesse Chriss? Thon Maker?

I said top 3 in my original post


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[og15]

He had a serious injury, and eventually made an all-NBA team despite it.

Do people look back at Al Jefferson and call his career an All Star career though? The point I'm suggesting is that Al was better than Okafor, and certainly better defensively even though that wasn't his strong suit, and he didn't have an All Star career, so why would Okafor?

Since Jefferson made a single All-NBA team post-injury, my guess is that he would have had a few all-star appearances if healthy.

Maybe, I don't know. ACL injury is no longer considered career devastating, but he might have. Problem for Okafor is that he would have had to show himself to even be as good as Jefferson. In a direct comparison, that means better rebounder and a lot less turnover prone. One of Al's biggest strengths was his very low turnover rate.

Where I won't disagree is that Okafor would have a better career in past seasons/eras, but I'm not convinced about the All-Star career since there are guys who I would say were better and didn't have such.

[og15]

I think you're kinda both right.

Okafor is the type of bad player who probably would have been named all-star in an earlier era simply because he was a scorer.

Okafor would have had a chance at an all star team during that weird time period from 2008-2014 where we had a dearth of star level centers in the league and we still weren't totally playing modern basketball yet so traditional centers still had to take up an all star spot. Maybe he makes it over Roy Hibbert. Okafor wasn't making an all star team in the 80s or 90s though.

You really going to tell me he could take an allstar spot over Jamaal Magloire in 2004

That's actually when I was thinking of for him. If early 2000's was mentioned, I actually think there's a good chance there to get in. Mid 2000's to 2010's had Dwight, Yao, Amar'e, Shaq for a little, then Gasol, Cousins, those would be tougher.

[Godymas]

a bust is a player that is completely useless after their rookie contract or basically belongs in a minimum deal after the contract. Just because a player underperformed compared to their draft position doesn't make them a bust, just the wrong pick.

If a player showed potential but got injured they deserve an asterisk, it isn't their fault 100% they got injured, sometimes it's a luck of the draw.

i can't believe Portland paid Evan Turner that much money. From the outside looking in..he had a successful NBA career, made almost $100 million, played for contending teams, made the WCF with Portland in 2019. And yet, he is almost unanimously considered a bust. But history would look back on him and say "oh wow he was in the league about 10 years, retired in his early 30s, what a great career"

Derrick Favors was no bust, he just didn't belong in the top 3 nor being selected above Boogie Cousins.

2011:
Derrick Williams yes
Enes Freedom, no, just not a #3 pick, but he had a productive career playing meaningful basketball.


2012:
MKG - yes, hilarious he got paid after too

2013:
Bennet - yes
Dipo - no, lived up to his draft pick until getting injured
OPJ - showed flashes of his draft pick, provided elite 3 and D, he's incredibly underrated in Golden State, his production warrants closer to Davis Bertans money. not a bust

2014:
Parker - yes with an asterisk, he had one good year but he was always terrible defensively so realistically his ceiling was "not a #2 pick"

2015:
Okafaor - big yes

2016:
No busts, all of the top 3 have justified their selection (yes Ben Simmons is still a top 3 guy from the draft).

2017:
Fultz is the mystery of this draft, he could've been something, still has a chance, but his ceiling at this point seems to be, picked at the wrong #, he will forever be more harshly criticized since he was supposed to be the savior of the process.
Lonzo is not a bust just picked at the wrong position, but he was the hometown kid and the Lakers had to take him, UCLA boy too

2018:
Ayton deserves a picked at the wrong # here, Luka should've gone 1, Trae should've gone 2, Ayton could potentially have gone 3 or lower, he still has all star potential
Bagley - picked at the wrong # but could turn things around as shown by Wiggins, franchise matters

2019:
Zion - hard no, and at this point injuries will not hurt the fact that he should've always been #1 in this draft based on the one year he gave
RJ Barrett - interesting situation, the question is how much will be get paid in extension and how will he perform on the extension, he has no business being selected ahead of Darius Garland, picked at the wrong #

2020:
Wiseman could still be a solid contributor and not a bust, picked at the wrong #. If injuries continue to hurt his career he gets an asterisk but falls much closer to the bust label. He couldn't have been drafted to a better situation.

[UcanUwill]

okafor just came in at the wrong time. If he was drafted between 2007-2014, he would had an all star career

2013 draft class might be the worst ive seen

I dont buy this argument at all for Okafor. Do you really think that lowly of past centers, Okafor cant play d, cant rebound, cant shoot, cant pass, he is not an all star, man, he barely could crack time on Nigerian national team, guy is just not good. And even tho there are centers who would have been more successful 20 years ago, like Boban, Okafor is just not that guy.

I hate this argument, that every low post unsucsseful big would have been good in the past, is as thoughless of an argument, as Bill Simmons obsession to name 3 point shooter of the past and say how he would be much better today. Like its not that simple, it is simple, but not simple enough for this abstrack argument.

[basketballRob]

I can't believe the Bucks picked Jabari over Embiid. Jeez...

List sounds about right although I think it's too early to call Bagley a bust. Don't know if I would call Oladipo one either, 2 time all start, all-NBA defensive team.

Pretty sure he withheld his medicals from Milwaukee.

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[UcanUwill]

I think Wiseman will not be bust. He was only 19 last year as NBA rookie, thats just one your older than what Victor Wembanyama was this season, and Victor was terrible. Wiseman is not one of those guys who you can tell is a bust right away, He just had bad reads on defense, but most rookie bigs have that.