Rumor: NBA Expected to Announce Expansion Teams in Seattle and Las Vegas

[ATRAIN53]

Yeah Simmons was on this ages ago.

The buy in for this is gonna be huge, like billions right? 3/4 billion?
and the other teams get to split that....?


So the annual loser teams like the Kings get to pocket more profits and continue to suck as usual.
It's like getting rewarded for just owning a team. This is why teams that have long standing owners will never sell, they just keep making more $$$ by basically just running the business, win or lose.


Good city choices and I want an NBA team in Seattle - but 2 expansion drafts and 30 more NBA players feels like a lot to add to the league in one off season.....


Does this also give teams a way out if they have a guy on a max salary they would like to off load?
Like Sixers with Harden or Bulls if they want a one year look at a Lavine on a Max deal, or even NO with Zion.....


Can't wait to see what they come up for a Vegas team name.....
Spades, Outlaws seem to be the early favs.

[MartyConlonOnTheRun]

Yeah Simmons was on this ages ago.

The buy in for this is gonna be huge, like billions right? 3/4 billion?
and the other teams get to split that....?


So the annual loser teams like the Kings get to pocket more profits and continue to suck as usual.
It's like getting rewarded for just owning a team. This is why teams that have long standing owners will never sell, they just keep making more $$$ by basically just running the business, win or lose.


Good city choices and I want an NBA team in Seattle - but 2 expansion drafts and 30 more NBA players feels like a lot to add to the league in one off season.....


Does this also give teams a way out if they have a guy on a max salary they would like to off load?
Like Sixers with Harden or Bulls if they want a one year look at a Lavine on a Max deal, or even NO with Zion.....


Can't wait to see what they come up for a Vegas team name.....
Spades, Outlaws seem to be the early favs.

There will definitely be buy-in, but for some context on the actual expansion fee: That will be 100m per team. I think that is the Bucks tax bill. So yeah it is the big money but for a once a generation payout it is comparative to some operating costs. Obviously, it would be huge having these extra games for TV rights along with more eyeballs from those markets.

[NZB2323]

Memphis is 1,309 miles away from Boston and 726 miles away from San Antonio.

Minnesota is closer to Milwaukee/Chicago than Memphis is to Atlanta/Charlotte, and Minnesota is farther away from Portland than Memphis is from San Antonio.

This map might help...

Ok but if Vegas and Seattle get added in, which other team goes to the east? You need 16 teams in each conference. It literally has to be Memphis based on the map, no?

No, look at the Map. Minnesota right now is in the same division as Portland and Utah, but the teams that are the closest to Minnesota are Milwaukee, Chicago, Indiana, Detroit, Cleveland, and Toronto.

Memphis is further East and is close to Atlanta and Charlotte, but Memphis is also close to New Orleans, OKC, Houston, Dallas, and San Antonio.

[Cactus Jack]

this cap spike is going to be insane.

Indeed.

The league’s domestic television rights are wrapped up in this, too. Each NBA franchise currently receives north of $80 million annually from the league’s current TV deal with ESPN and Turner Sports. Industry experts expect to see a monumental increase ($275 million to $300 million per team) when the contract is re-upped beginning in 2025.

[wegotthabeet]

Wish Vancouver would get it's team back, but it doesn't seem like any group from Vancouver would make a bid.

Would be cheaper for Fenway Sports Group to buy the Pelicans and move them to Vegas. Maybe just give Seattle a team for now. That's still $100 million + for each team.

[wco81]

this cap spike is going to be insane.

Indeed.

The league’s domestic television rights are wrapped up in this, too. Each NBA franchise currently receives north of $80 million annually from the league’s current TV deal with ESPN and Turner Sports. Industry experts expect to see a monumental increase ($275 million to $300 million per team) when the contract is re-upped beginning in 2025.

There is a big IF.

NBA is trying to get over triple the current TV deal, because that's what the NFL got.

They may need Amazon or Apple to pony up billions to make it happen.

But the league is obviously under pressure to maximize TV revenues now to have a better negotiating position. That is why you see officiating trying to extend series.


However, if the NBA had that compelling an argument, the deal would have been done by now. I am guessing the TV networks are balking, probably going to come to a deal much closer to the expiration of the current deal than the NFL and the networks when they renewed their deal.

So NBA wants over 3X the current deal and that could be an opening bid and they may agree to something between 2X and 3X

[Lockdown504090]

this cap spike is going to be insane.

Indeed.

The league’s domestic television rights are wrapped up in this, too. Each NBA franchise currently receives north of $80 million annually from the league’s current TV deal with ESPN and Turner Sports. Industry experts expect to see a monumental increase ($275 million to $300 million per team) when the contract is re-upped beginning in 2025.

There is a big IF.

NBA is trying to get over triple the current TV deal, because that's what the NFL got.

They may need Amazon or Apple to pony up billions to make it happen.

But the league is obviously under pressure to maximize TV revenues now to have a better negotiating position. That is why you see officiating trying to extend series.


However, if the NBA had that compelling an argument, the deal would have been done by now. I am guessing the TV networks are balking, probably going to come to a deal much closer to the expiration of the current deal than the NFL and the networks when they renewed their deal.

So NBA wants over 3X the current deal and that could be an opening bid and they may agree to something between 2X and 3X

Tv deals have 0 leverage. Cable would die within 5 years without these tv deals. If the negotiations grow stagnant the nba will just roll out a sweeping league pass interface overhaul that just needs the removal of blackouts to be successful. I think they should do this anyway, but the nba has these guys by the balls.

[TravisScott55]

Vancouver deserves a 2nd chance at a team

[Snacks]

Congrats to long suffering and surviving Sonic fans.

[LAL1947]

Average distance between Memphis and every other Western Conference city: 1171 miles
Average distance between Minneapolis and every other Western Conference city: 1199 miles

(Counting LA twice and including Vegas and Seattle)

So yes, it makes the most sense to send Memphis East.

No, it doesn't make sense, even if only using your averages for a one time trip.

If we send Minnesota to the East and keep Memphis in the West...
Difference between how much each travels = 1,171 - 873 = 298 miles

If we keep Minnesota in the West and send Memphis to the East...
Difference between how much each travels = 1,199 - 712 = 489 miles

298 < 489, the smaller number is more preferable for equitable travel.

That's a weird determining factor.

I only used your numbers as a small example. I'm not sure why you counted NY/LA twice or what you used to come up with averages (averages isn't the best way to do this vs actual miles that will be flown)... and you won't know the actual miles that will be flown until the league decides the regular season format (i.e., how many games against inter vs intra division/conference teams, which we don't know right now) and can then see how to go about the scheduling. Trying to figure that out now is just wasting our time... but Minnesota's proximity to the group of Milwaukee, Chicago, Detroit, Cleveland, Indiana, Toronto will definitely help more than them being in the West.

[nomansland]

As a former Seattle resident for more than 20 years, I'll believe it when I see it. Can't trust the NBA.

The owners are going to make whatever they think is in their best collective financial interest and if the numbers don't pan out there's no way they're going to expand.

I'd love for Seattle to get a team again. It was great fun having the Sonics there and I have a lot of fond memories with my kids watching hoops. We're all still basketball fans even though they're in their 20's now.

But the NBA has no interest in bringing a team back to Seattle unless the prospect is at worst revenue neutral over the long term for the rest of the owners.

[Ballerhogger]

Las Vegas was the most obvious betting and all

[Statlanta]

I think Las Vegas is a terrible location if this rumor has any legs. Too many teams near Dallas and California. Also if the AllStar game on 2007 is any indication players will act a fool there.

[Klomp]

With the first pick in the expansion draft, Seattle selects Gary Payton II

[azcatz11]

I think Las Vegas is a terrible location if this rumor has any legs. Too many teams near Dallas and California. Also if the AllStar game on 2007 is any indication players will act a fool there.

Disagree with you. Players are more mature and composed than ever. These dudes come in the league super polished. I have 0 doubt there would be issues with players in Vegas.

[HeatIn5]

This map might help...

Ok but if Vegas and Seattle get added in, which other team goes to the east? You need 16 teams in each conference. It literally has to be Memphis based on the map, no?

No, look at the Map. Minnesota right now is in the same division as Portland and Utah, but the teams that are the closest to Minnesota are Milwaukee, Chicago, Indiana, Detroit, Cleveland, and Toronto.

Memphis is further East and is close to Atlanta and Charlotte, but Memphis is also close to New Orleans, OKC, Houston, Dallas, and San Antonio.

So the divisions will look something like this

BOS, NY, BRK, PHI, TOR

DET, CLE, IND, CHI, MIL, MIN

MIA, ORL, ATL, WAS, CHA


MEM, OKC, SA, DAL, HOU

POR, SEA, UTAH, DEN, PHX

LAC, LAL, SAC, GAS, LV

[Cavsfansince84]

this cap spike is going to be insane. super teams are definitely coming back.

Not so sure about that. The question is will the new revenue make up for having more teams and will the franchise fee(if there is one) get shared with the players. I don't think the cap will go up that much(compared to 2017).

[Klomp]

Minnesota. See map, they're on the right of the red line I drew in. Memphis may be the furthest east by a little, but Minny just makes so much more sense geographically.

Average distance between Memphis and every Eastern Conference city: 712 miles
Average distance between Minneapolis and every Eastern Conference city: 873 miles

(Counting NYC twice of course)

Average distance between Memphis and every other Western Conference city: 1171 miles
Average distance between Minneapolis and every other Western Conference city: 1199 miles

(Counting LA twice and including Vegas and Seattle)

So yes, it makes the most sense to send Memphis East.

Divisional opponents are the ones you are guaranteed to play 4 times every year. Those are the trips that matter most. The rest of the conference is on a rotation of who gets 3 or 4 games. Out-of-conference games are 2 yearly.

Let's break down the flights in-division, both currently and the other towns in the divisions where these franchises would be placed. I'll bold current divisional opponents for clarity.

MINNEAPOLIS to
Milwaukee 297.76 miles
Chicago 354.21 miles
Indianapolis 510.67 miles
Detroit 541.96 miles
Cleveland 629.22 miles
Oklahoma City 694.06 miles
Denver 698.34 miles
Salt Lake City 984.56 miles
Portland 1423.45 miles

MEMPHIS to
Atlanta 336.57 miles
New Orleans 358.71 miles
Dallas 419.50 miles
Houston 483.99 miles
Charlotte 519.99 miles
San Antonio 631.44 miles
Orlando 683.14 miles
Washington DC 763.33 miles
Miami 872.85 miles

Tell me how it makes more sense for Memphis to move, based on those numbers?

[NyKnicks1714]

Average distance between Memphis and every Eastern Conference city: 712 miles
Average distance between Minneapolis and every Eastern Conference city: 873 miles

(Counting NYC twice of course)

Average distance between Memphis and every other Western Conference city: 1171 miles
Average distance between Minneapolis and every other Western Conference city: 1199 miles

(Counting LA twice and including Vegas and Seattle)

So yes, it makes the most sense to send Memphis East.

Divisional opponents are the ones you are guaranteed to play 4 times every year. Those are the trips that matter most. The rest of the conference is on a rotation of who gets 3 or 4 games. Out-of-conference games are 2 yearly.

Let's break down the flights in-division, both currently and the other towns in the divisions where these franchises would be placed. I'll bold current divisional opponents for clarity.

MINNEAPOLIS to
Milwaukee 297.76 miles
Chicago 354.21 miles
Indianapolis 510.67 miles
Detroit 541.96 miles
Cleveland 629.22 miles
Oklahoma City 694.06 miles
Denver 698.34 miles
Salt Lake City 984.56 miles
Portland 1423.45 miles

MEMPHIS to
Atlanta 336.57 miles
New Orleans 358.71 miles
Dallas 419.50 miles
Houston 483.99 miles
Charlotte 519.99 miles
San Antonio 631.44 miles
Orlando 683.14 miles
Washington DC 763.33 miles
Miami 872.85 miles

Tell me how it makes more sense for Memphis to move, based on those numbers?

You can't just cherry-pick Divisions though. Right now teams play their Non-Division Conference opponents an average of 3.6 times, so you'd just have weight them differently and add a 0.9 multiplier to those teams. After expansion that number would presumably go down slightly, so call it 0.85. You can't ignore them though and just worry about Divisions. Plus there would likely be Division realignment anyway.

But really, in the end, this is all so inconsequential. I could only find data from a couple of years ago, but the Timberwolves total flight distance was about 9000 miles more than the NBA average. That sounds like a lot, but it represents something like 18 hours over 6 months. 3 hours of extra flight time per month. Considering they're not exactly flying economy, that's nothing.

[HartfordWhalers]

FWIW: Last summer Kurt Helin told us it was a done deal and would be voted on summer of '22.

That was the rumor. As far as what I'm hearing there is no set date yet.

The rumor last time was it was a done deal — with that exact language; as well as a set date, and even a rationale that the owners needed to.

Expansion at some point might happen, but at this point the faith placed on the rumors of media guys who are not known for just this sort of breaking news feels a lot like someone at a roulette table repeatedly saying 00 will come up next. At some point they will nail it but along the way there will be a lot of premature calls.