Serious Question: Since 2010, how many top 3 picks became busts?

[tsherkin]

Bargs obviously was a huge disappointment as a player, but how much value did that #1 pick initially hold?

He was most unequivocally a bust. He provided his greatest value by getting traded away and was a dreadful waste of our time.

[Raps in 4]

Zion, Oladipo, and Lonzo are not busts.

Zion had one of the best rookie and sophomore seasons of all time.

Oladipo was a very good player before being derailed by injuries.

Lonzo is a good player (although he might also be going down the road of players whose careers are derailed by injuries).

If you don't have Wiggins there as a bust, then none of these guys belong there either.

[MartyConlonOnTheRun]

I can't believe the Bucks picked Jabari over Embiid. Jeez...

List sounds about right although I think it's too early to call Bagley a bust. Don't know if I would call Oladipo one either, 2 time all start, all-NBA defensive team.

Embiid had a huge injury concern and it was the reason why he was not the first overall pick.He did not play in the first 2 years too

Yeah but it's not like Embiid went from top pick to 27th, he was picked 3rd lol. Anyway, it doesn't matter, Bucks got Giannis and won a ring, but looking back that was definitely a head scratcher.

Jabari as a 21 year old was putting up 21/6 on 56TS%. To many Bucks fans, he was becoming a robin to Giannis where you had 2 really young wings with compatible strengths and weaknesses. I think most fans were skeptical but understood the pick on draft night and were estactic all the way until Feb 2017 (when jabari torn his acl again) where Embiid had just been shut down 31 games into the season. It looked like a great pick until then.

Yeah, jabari had his flaws but even today it is hard to come back as the same player after 2 acls at the age of 21. Even if he came back close to 100%, he had already lost ~2 of playing team basketball and was forced to either not play, or only do solo drills. For a guy with bad awareness, this additional lack of awareness was a death blow.

[Quattro]

If Oladipo doesn’t have his knee injuries, I think he’d be the 2nd best player in that draft. He’s a bust like Brandon Roy was a bust.

[Clyde Frazier]

You're way too loose with the term bust. I'd say only ~half the players mentioned in the OP are true busts. If you were a top 3 pick and had a solid long career but weren't a star, you aren't a bust. There are only so many stars out there. Marvin Williams is the best example to me since he was taken ahead of Paul/Deron. Not his fault. He still had a good career.

[tsherkin]

If Oladipo doesn’t have his knee injuries, I think he’d be the 2nd best player in that draft. He’s a bust like Brandon Roy was a bust.

A bust is a bust. The why is flavor; it can be tragic, of course. Len Bias was a bust, after all. At least Dipo has a chance to pull a Wiggins, right? Health and opportunity, new role, new chance to shine in a different way.

[Blame Rasho]

The real question is who out of the top three players in this draft will be the bust

[Blame Rasho]

Oladipo and Ball aren't busts. Are they what you hope for from a top 2 pick? Not necessarily, but they aren't busts.

I would argue if a team trades you when you are still on your rookie contract. You are a bust. At least to me it is that simple.

[Reeko]

Oladipo and Ball aren't busts. Are they what you hope for from a top 2 pick? Not necessarily, but they aren't busts.

I would argue if a team trades you will you are still on your rookie contract. You are a bust. At least to me it is that simple.

Not if it's for a top 10 player in the NBA, and the franchise has a mandate to win immediately. Just my opinion.

[Blame Rasho]

Oladipo and Ball aren't busts. Are they what you hope for from a top 2 pick? Not necessarily, but they aren't busts.

I would argue if a team trades you will you are still on your rookie contract. You are a bust. At least to me it is that simple.

Not if it's for a top 10 player in the NBA, and the franchise has a mandate to win immediately. Just my opinion.

I am not saying you are wrong, but no one picks that high in the draft to just get a rotation or starter level player.

[jokeboy86]

You're way too loose with the term bust. I'd say only ~half the players mentioned in the OP are true busts. If you were a top 3 pick and had a solid long career but weren't a star, you aren't a bust. There are only so many stars out there. Marvin Williams is the best example to me since he was taken ahead of Paul/Deron. Not his fault. He still had a good career.

See to me I don't call him a bust because CP3 or Williams were better than him, I call him a bust because again he was never close to being a top 10 SF in the league which to me seems like a reasonable expectation for a team to have of a top 3 drafted player. Bogut wasn't a bust because before the fall in Milwaukee, at his peak he was at least one of the top centers at the time. Like with Wiggins I was about to label him as a bust but maybe just maybe there's a chance he could be a top 10 SF with the Warriors. Maybe.

[Jadoogar]

Oladipo and Ball aren't busts. Are they what you hope for from a top 2 pick? Not necessarily, but they aren't busts.

I would argue that Otto Porter isn't really a bust either. The quality of the draft matters.

Otto Porter had a better career than Cody Zeller, Alex Len, Nerlens Noel, Ben Mclemore, KCP (arguable), Trey Burke and MCW. These were 7 or the next 8 players selected after Porter. Can you really be considered a bust if you were better than most of the players you were picked ahead of?

[Jadoogar]

I would say only busts are Okafor, Bennett, and possibly Bagley. The jury's still out on Wiseman.
Maybe even Okafor can't be considered a bust. He had a 6 year career.

Okafor is absolutely a bust. Most tanking teams would not be happy to select Okafor with a top 3 pick.
Some of you are being too generous with saying some of these guys aren't busts. Teams tear down their whole roster and commit to multi year tanks to get top draft picks. If you're walking away from all that with Marvin Bagley to show for it, what was the point? These are busts.

[Jadoogar]

Bargs obviously was a huge disappointment as a player, but how much value did that #1 pick initially hold?

He was most unequivocally a bust. He provided his greatest value by getting traded away and was a dreadful waste of our time.

This is another one where the quality of the draft needs to be taken into accounts.
Players selected after Bargnani: LMA, Adam Morrison, Tyrus Thomas, Shelden Williams, Brandon Roy, Randy Foye, Rudy Gay, Patrick O'bryant, Mouhamed Sene.
Bargnani had a better career than most of these player. Only LMA, Brandon Roy (not even in discussion for the #1 pick) and Rudy Gay had better careers than Bargs.

Bargs was bad for a #1 pick but he wasn't all that bad compared to the available options. Raptors just got unlucky to get #1 pick in an awful draft.

[tsherkin]

This is another one where the quality of the draft needs to be taken into accounts.
Players selected after Bargnani: LMA, Adam Morrison, Tyrus Thomas, Shelden Williams, Brandon Roy, Randy Foye, Rudy Gay, Patrick O'bryant, Mouhamed Sene.
Bargnani had a better career than most of these player. Only LMA, Brandon Roy (not even in discussion for the #1 pick) and Rudy Gay had better careers than Bargs.

Bargs was bad for a #1 pick but he wasn't all that bad compared to the available options. Raptors just got unlucky to get #1 pick in an awful draft.

I see what you're saying, but honestly, he was still bad in slot. He was objectively bad. We'd have been better off trading the pick, or at least trading down into like Ronnie Brewer territory. The quality of the draft matters only so much when the guy you pick is still awful.

[meekrab]

What's your definition of bust, since that will determine how to answer the question. How are Lonzo and Oladipo busts for example. Even Favors has had a productive enough career to maybe escape the bust label

Seriously. Favors still goes top 10 in a redraft of the 2010 class, that's hardly a bust. He played 19 THOUSAND minutes of NBA ball, you don't get to that many if you're trash.

For me it's Bennett Parker and Fultz, end of list.

[chrisab123]

Oladipo Ball and Favors weren't busts.