LAL1947 wrote:I'm not saying that Hakeem was "much better", just that I think he was better than Duncan.
Let's talk about the ability to score first... if you look a the Top 10 highest playoff PPG among the two, Hakeem has 7 to Duncan's 3... with his highest series being 10 PPG more than Duncan's.
1) Hakeem 1987-88........ 37.5 PPG
2) Hakeem 1994-95........ 33.0 PPG
3) Hakeem 1986-87........ 29.2 PPG
4) Hakeem 1993-94........ 28.9 PPG
5) Duncan 2001-02......... 27.6 PPG
6) Hakeem 1985-86........ 26.9 PPG
7) Duncan 2005-06......... 25.8 PPG
8) Hakeem 1992-93........ 25.7 PPG
9) Hakeem 1988-89........ 25.3 PPG
10) Duncan 2002-03....... 24.7 PPG
If you look at their PPG between ages 22-34 (what I consider the prime years for a Center):
Hakeem, regular season: 24.2 PPG
Duncan, regular season: 20.5 PPG
Hakeem, playoffs: 27.3 PPG
Duncan, playoffs: 22.8 PPG
So Hakeem was clearly the better scorer.
1. You don't take into account pace, because Hakeem played in a faster era. If we look at their 10 years primes adjusted for pace:
1986-97 Hakeem in RS: 23.9 points per75
1998-09 Duncan in RS: 23.4 points per75
1986-97 Hakeem in playoffs: 26.0 points per75
1998-09 Duncan in playoffs: 23.9 points per75
Hakeem has basically no edge in RS and he increases his volume in postseason. As I said, Hakeem was better isolation scorer but the gap isn't giant.
2. You include postseason runs like 1988 or 1989, when Hakeem played 4 games and you compare it to Duncan's 3-4 series runs.
As you have mentioned too... he was more creative, with better footwork, a more natural shooter, and had a better motor and athleticism... all of which is important in moments of pressure or against the best defenses.
Hakeem and Duncan had comparable success against the best defenses. Here are culminative stats against -4.0 rDRtg defenses or better:
1986-96 Hakeem: 42.0 mpg, 10.2 rpg, 3.1 apg, 3.4 tov, 24.1 ppg on 48.9% FG, 75.2% FT and 53.9% TS (+0.30% rTS)
1998-08 Duncan: 41.7 mpg, 13.7 rpg, 3.2 apg, 3.0 tov, 23.6 ppg on 47.8% FG, 68.0% FT and 52.7% TS (+0.50% rTS)
You also say that Duncan was a better passer/playmaker and offensive rebounder, yet they had almost the exact same numbers between ages 22-34.
Hakeem:
Assists in regular season: 2.7
Assists in playoffs: 3.4
ORB in regular season: 3.6
ORB in playoffs: 3.4
Duncan:
Assists in regular season: 3.2
Assists in playoffs: 3.5
ORB in regular season: 3.0
ORB in playoffs: 3.5
1. Again, no adjustment for minutes played or pace difference:
1986-97 Hakeem in RS: 2.8 apg, 3.3 tov, 2.8 assists per75, 3.2 tov per75, 13.0 AST% and 12.9 TOV%
1986-97 Hakeem in PS: 3.5 apg, 3.1 tov, 3.3 assists per75, 2.9 tov per75, 16.5 AST% and 11.5 TOV%
1998-09 Duncan in RS: 3.2 apg, 2.8 tov, 3.5 assists per75, 3.0 tov per75, 16.6 AST% and 12.5 TOV%
1998-09 Duncan in PS: 3.5 apg, 3.0 tov, 3.6 assists per75, 3.1 tov per75, 18.1 AST% and 12.6 TOV%
1986-97 Hakeem in RS: 10.2 ORB%
1986-97 Hakeem in PS: 9.4 ORB%
1998-09 Duncan in RS: 10.1 ORB%
1998-09 Duncan in PS: 10.4 ORB%
As you can see, Duncan was comfortably more efficient playmaker than Hakeem based on stats. Rebounding looks comparable, but see my 2nd point.
2. As I said, to pick the best of Hakeem you can either go with younger Hakeem who was a great offensive rebounder but horrible passer, or improved passer who couldn't rebound at high rate anymore:
1986-91 Hakeem: 12.0 ORB%, 10.1 AST%, 13.2 TOV%
1992-97 Hakeem: 8.6 ORB%, 15.7 AST%, 12.6 TOV%
Duncan doesn't have such a clear difference between his prime seasons:
1998-03 Duncan: 10.0 ORB%, 16.0 AST%, 13.3 TOV%
2004-09 Duncan: 10.2 ORB%, 17.3 AST%, 11.6 TOV%
You can't pick the best passing and rebounding version of Hakeem, while Duncan was basically on the same level in both aspects after 2001.
3. Judging passing ability by assist numbers is incredibly crude. Hakeem had a lot of assists for a center in 1993-95 period because he played in an offensive system that was built to create as many easy passing opportunities as possible for Hakeem through spacing and exploiting illegal defense. Hakeem didn't magically become a great passer in his 30s, he simply got far more favorable circumstances. Even then, Hakeem missed a lot of open teammates when he had the ball in his hands. He couldn't punish defense in any other way than easy double reads. Olajuwon-anchored offense had a clear ceilling because he couldn't break down defenses with his passing like top players could and did.
If you think that's bullsh*t, think about this way - Giannis averages more assists than Larry Bird and he's not even close to Bird as a passer. Duncan wasn't Bird of course, but after 2001 he reached the level than Hakeem couldn't reach in terms of passing.
