OT: Investing/Stocks/Bonds/Mutual Funds/Crypto

[sidney lanier]

Is this really just a canary in the coal mine for what is to come? Basically replace crypto with 'my retirement fund'

I wouldn't bet against the US economy. I was mid 30s in 1987 when the bottom fell out and just waited. Recovery takes time, but had I gotten out when it was darkest I wouldn't have the pleasure of losing a car a day now.

In other words, this too will pass. We just happened to hit a bad trifecta -- COVID, Ukraine, inflation -- at a time when the bull was getting old anyway. Until debt instruments start generating returns that are more than next to nothing, stocks are still the best game in town.

[KidA24]

When is the housing market going to have the bottom drop out?

When are the real estate cash buyers going to, well, slow the **** down?

[midranger]

When is the housing market going to have the bottom drop out?

When are the real estate cash buyers going to, well, slow the **** down?

A lot of money wants to get out of Chinese and Russian banks into something tangible. For that reason, I think US real estate will be relatively safe.

Maybe not the new builds with greige walls selling on the north shore for 1.5 million, but land.

[KidA24]

When is the housing market going to have the bottom drop out?

When are the real estate cash buyers going to, well, slow the **** down?

A lot of money wants to get out of Chinese and Russian banks into something tangible. For that reason, I think US real estate will be relatively safe.

Maybe not the new builds with greige walls selling on the north shore for 1.5 million, but land.

I was close to buying a house. I'm so priced out now, it's not worth it.

Had a friend just sell their lake house up north for 20% over asking, day one, no inspection, cash offer.

I just don't understand how normal humans can compete with this.

[M-C-G]

When is the housing market going to have the bottom drop out?

When are the real estate cash buyers going to, well, slow the **** down?

A lot of money wants to get out of Chinese and Russian banks into something tangible. For that reason, I think US real estate will be relatively safe.

Maybe not the new builds with greige walls selling on the north shore for 1.5 million, but land.

I was close to buying a house. I'm so priced out now, it's not worth it.

Had a friend just sell their lake house up north for 20% over asking, day one, no inspection, cash offer.

I just don't understand how normal humans can compete with this.

We can’t when institutional money like Blackrock is buying giant amounts of property. If price is no object and it is being treated as an appreciating asset instead of home, humans aren’t going to reasonably beat out their algorithms for purchase. It’s a quantity game for the institutions.


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[machu46]

When is the housing market going to have the bottom drop out?

When are the real estate cash buyers going to, well, slow the **** down?

A lot of money wants to get out of Chinese and Russian banks into something tangible. For that reason, I think US real estate will be relatively safe.

Maybe not the new builds with greige walls selling on the north shore for 1.5 million, but land.

I was close to buying a house. I'm so priced out now, it's not worth it.

Had a friend just sell their lake house up north for 20% over asking, day one, no inspection, cash offer.

I just don't understand how normal humans can compete with this.

My wife and I lucked out big time. Bought our house in downtown DC like right after COVID lockdowns started. Was able to refinance to lock in the crazy low rates and get rid of the PMI and our house is up probably about 20% since we bought it. It was already more expensive when we bought it than we had started our search being willing to pay and I don’t think there’s really a house anywhere near this one that we could afford now unless we found one that was like totally fallen apart.


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[jschligs]

A lot of money wants to get out of Chinese and Russian banks into something tangible. For that reason, I think US real estate will be relatively safe.

Maybe not the new builds with greige walls selling on the north shore for 1.5 million, but land.

I was close to buying a house. I'm so priced out now, it's not worth it.

Had a friend just sell their lake house up north for 20% over asking, day one, no inspection, cash offer.

I just don't understand how normal humans can compete with this.

My wife and I lucked out big time. Bought our house in downtown DC like right after COVID lockdowns started. Was able to refinance to lock in the crazy low rates and get rid of the PMI and our house is up probably about 20% since we bought it. It was already more expensive when we bought it than we had started our search being willing to pay and I don’t think there’s really a house anywhere near this one that we could afford now unless we found one that was like totally fallen apart.

We got super lucky with our newest house too. Early 2021, so rates were low and house prices had just started to really rise. We offered below asking as we were waiving most everything (not really anticipating a yes) and they came back with a counter that was still under asking but they needed to close in 1 week. Stupid fast turnaround, but we agreed.

Selling our house was easy as pie. Listed on a Monday, set up 33 showings for the weekend, and had 14 offers by Monday AM. Winner was 12% over asking and waived everything as well.

Fast forward, our new house is Zestimated (not a great metric) about 16% more than when we purchased.

[Siefer]

I've seen some theorizing (backed up by the huge spike in margin loans over the last year+) that a lot of this institutional cash is coming from chaining margin loans on properties. If that's right, the implications are **** **** terrifying. A decent chunk of not just the ownership, but also the spike in values, might be vapor.

[M-C-G]

I've seen some theorizing (backed up by the huge spike in margin loans over the last year+) that a lot of this institutional cash is coming from chaining margin loans on properties. I

To a simpleton, would this mean institutions are buying homes, effectively taking out an equity loan on its value and using it to buy another home, but repeated thousands of times to the point where the home values are somewhat manufactured?

[midranger]

I've seen some theorizing (backed up by the huge spike in margin loans over the last year+) that a lot of this institutional cash is coming from chaining margin loans on properties. If that's right, the implications are **** **** terrifying. A decent chunk of not just the ownership, but also the spike in values, might be vapor.

That would be something.

People are shockingly greedy.

[BucksFanSD]

I don't think institutional buying was a large percentage of the homes purchased during the pandemic. I believe it was mostly the general population buying due to 1) 30 year fixed mortages below 3% allowing people to afford a lot more, 2) the 10 year stock bull market run, crypto run, and savings during the pandemic allowing bigger down payments, 3) low supply, 4) demand increasing due to that the average person will spend more time in their home now and going forward, and 5) anticipation of inflation and therefore desire to own physical assets. Some areas are up over 100% in gains since the pandemic start.

[WeekapaugGroove]

I don't think institutional buying was a large percentage of the homes purchased during the pandemic. I believe it was mostly the general population buying due to 1) 30 year fixed mortages below 3% allowing people to afford a lot more, 2) the 10 year stock bull market run, crypto run, and savings during the pandemic allowing bigger down payments, 3) low supply, 4) demand increasing due to that the average person will spend more time in their home now and going forward, and 5) anticipation of inflation and therefore desire to own physical assets. Some areas are up over 100% in gains since the pandemic start.

Plus they under built new homes since 2008. And then when they tried to ramp it up there were supply chain issues with materials. Every market is different but I know that's a factor out here in Phoenix.

I built new in 2016 and my communities infrastructure was put in in 2006 and they built like half the master plan community then just stopped for years.

I do think we'll see some correction but I doubt it's as severe as 2008.

Have to admit Ive had really good luck with real estate timing. Bought my first house in 2010, it was a foreclosure and I got it for like 35% of what it had sold for a few years earlier. Flipped that 3 years later and then bought and remodeled and flipped another getting me the cash for my current place. Plan on selling this at some point and moving back to the Midwest before we run out of water


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[M-C-G]

I don't think institutional buying was a large percentage of the homes purchased during the pandemic. I believe it was mostly the general population buying due to 1) 30 year fixed mortages below 3% allowing people to afford a lot more, 2) the 10 year stock bull market run, crypto run, and savings during the pandemic allowing bigger down payments, 3) low supply, 4) demand increasing due to that the average person will spend more time in their home now and going forward, and 5) anticipation of inflation and therefore desire to own physical assets. Some areas are up over 100% in gains since the pandemic start.

It doesn’t take a large % of institutional buying to completely change the dynamics of the any market, at least I think. It’s like adding billions into a different market but one that doesn’t have an emotional attachment to the properties

https://www.wsj.com/articles/if-you-sell-a-house-these-days-the-buyer-might-be-a-pension-fund-11617544801


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[Siefer]

I've seen some theorizing (backed up by the huge spike in margin loans over the last year+) that a lot of this institutional cash is coming from chaining margin loans on properties. I

To a simpleton, would this mean institutions are buying homes, effectively taking out an equity loan on its value and using it to buy another home, but repeated thousands of times to the point where the home values are somewhat manufactured?

You've got it. That's exactly what this would mean.

[BucksFanSD]

If we think USA has it bad, check out Canada...

Toronto Detached Single Family Home-

Market Report Summary for April 2022
Detached home prices increased by 17% year-over-year to $1.63M. (Or $1.28M in USD).

https://wowa.ca/toronto-housing-market

Vancouver Detached Single Family Home-

Market Report Summary for April 2022
Detached home prices increased by 22% year-over-year to $2.14M (Or $1.68M in USD).

https://wowa.ca/vancouver-housing-market

Canada gets a lot of foreigners for their home purchases, which was recently banned for two years to let home prices cool. There is some chance that more foreign money goes into the US housing market due to the ban mentioned above and also how USA housing is cheap compared to Canada's despite Americans having higher salaries.

[BucksFanSD]

I do think we'll see some correction but I doubt it's as severe as 2008.

You may be right. Things are slowing down this month as many investments have tanked and rates have gone up. Some see a receission ahead. However, I think housing is still very high demand long term, and many won't sell unless they're forced to due to their low interest rate, the high cost of selling, and more time people will spend in their homes due to pernament telework. Some areas in the country have more home supply (or will have more supply shortly as building happens) than other areas, and may be more likely to pull back in home costs.

[machu46]

If we think USA has it bad, check out Canada...

Toronto Detached Single Family Home-

Market Report Summary for April 2022
Detached home prices increased by 17% year-over-year to $1.63M. (Or $1.28M in USD).

https://wowa.ca/toronto-housing-market

Vancouver Detached Single Family Home-

Market Report Summary for April 2022
Detached home prices increased by 22% year-over-year to $2.14M (Or $1.68M in USD).

https://wowa.ca/vancouver-housing-market

Canada gets a lot of foreigners for their home purchases, which was recently banned for two years to let home prices cool. There is some chance that more foreign money goes into the US housing market due to the ban mentioned above and also how USA housing is cheap compared to Canada's despite Americans having higher salaries.

Is this a lot worse than the US? The article is old now, but I had read that in DC, the price of detached single family homes was up like 25% from 2019 to 2020, and I’d guess that trend has continued the last couple years with the market blowing up the way it has. I also know the average single family detached home is up over $1 million now.

That’s just DC, which is very expensive relative to most of the US, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the numbers in major cities rival the Canadian cities. Not to mention the way things are blowing up in the up and coming cities like Huntsville, Boise, etc. The average prices certainly aren’t in the millions there but the residents are almost certainly feeling the economic pressures just as bad in those places.


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[WeekapaugGroove]

I feel bad for the first time home buyers. Not only are the prices at a point where its a big down payment but with other buyers willing pay over appraisal that puts those trying to use an FHA loan at even more disadvantage. Plus the market will cool with interest rates going up so while it should get easier to land something the total costs rises. Just a **** deal.

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[BucksFanSD]

Is this a lot worse than the US? The article is old now, but I had read that in DC, the price of detached single family homes was up like 25% from 2019 to 2020, and I’d guess that trend has continued the last couple years with the market blowing up the way it has. I also know the average single family detached home is up over $1 million now.

That’s just DC, which is very expensive relative to most of the US, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the numbers in major cities rival the Canadian cities. Not to mention the way things are blowing up in the up and coming cities like Huntsville, Boise, etc. The average prices certainly aren’t in the millions there but the residents are almost certainly feeling the economic pressures just as bad in those places.


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The median Single family home in San Diego is about $1 Mil now. The household income is about 20% more than Vancouver yet with the median home is 40% cheaper. Tough times in Canada.

[ReasonablySober]

If we think USA has it bad, check out Canada...

Toronto Detached Single Family Home-

Market Report Summary for April 2022
Detached home prices increased by 17% year-over-year to $1.63M. (Or $1.28M in USD).

https://wowa.ca/toronto-housing-market

Vancouver Detached Single Family Home-

Market Report Summary for April 2022
Detached home prices increased by 22% year-over-year to $2.14M (Or $1.68M in USD).

https://wowa.ca/vancouver-housing-market

Canada gets a lot of foreigners for their home purchases, which was recently banned for two years to let home prices cool. There is some chance that more foreign money goes into the US housing market due to the ban mentioned above and also how USA housing is cheap compared to Canada's despite Americans having higher salaries.

Is this a lot worse than the US? The article is old now, but I had read that in DC, the price of detached single family homes was up like 25% from 2019 to 2020, and I’d guess that trend has continued the last couple years with the market blowing up the way it has. I also know the average single family detached home is up over $1 million now.

That’s just DC, which is very expensive relative to most of the US, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the numbers in major cities rival the Canadian cities. Not to mention the way things are blowing up in the up and coming cities like Huntsville, Boise, etc. The average prices certainly aren’t in the millions there but the residents are almost certainly feeling the economic pressures just as bad in those places.


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Yea, my occasional Zillow report shows home prices up between 25-32% and then I start to cry.