2022 NBA Draft Talk: Never too soon

[shangrila]

What are the chances of this Jalen Williams being available at 19?

Consensus mock drafts have him on the first round bubble. I'd say it's pretty likely.

He also comes across as one of most intelligent player's i've ever seen interviewed pre-draft. Would love to get him.

One concern I do have is his playstyle.

He's VERY PnR heavy and that's not something we run a lot of, as we've seen with some of DLo's struggles. And if we're not running those plays for him, is he going to have the same success everyone is projecting he will? Honestly I'm not sure.

Because he's sort of an interesting case study into measurements vs games, as while he measured athletically incredibly well...it doesn't seem to translate to the court.

[old school 34]

ESPN has Jabari Smith going #1. Jovic to the Wolves.

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I'm fine with Jovic as the pick, but if the draft shakes out this way, I try to move up a few spots if the Wolves fall in love with either Souchan or Eason

If Eason is there at the Houston pick I'd be offering them a lottery protected 1st for it, maybe some of the 2nds if they want. Not sure they want even more youth so they can punt the pick until next season.

But I'm SUPER high on Eason. Take him at 17 and probably Kennedy Chandler at 19, don't even care what happens in the 2nd at that point.

The guy I'd like to trade up for is Dyson Daniels...but that may be a substantial jump? If I'm staying more conservative & taking say which ever pf starts to fall some....I would then very much pivot there & say try to get another late first to have rook pf & Chandler....I'd feel very good with that outcome....Chandler's floor is JMac, but think there's a pretty high ceiling...while not perfect don't get me wrong but think he could still be highly functional 5th starter type?

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[shrink]

If we traded all four (4) of our picks, how far could we move up in your opinion?

Not very far, I’m afraid. While 2nd rounders are fun for internet draft junkies, they have never been given a lot of value by GM’s, because the chance to find a legit player in the second round is so risky. Pat Riley gives them away like candy. MIL and CHI didn’t mind forfeiting theirs, in order to make a free agent deal earlier than the rules allow. Moreover, what team needs three second rounders?

I have numerical data on the top 30 picks, that has proven to be an accurate predictor. However, if we believed that 40, 48 and 50 can get you Pick #30, my numbers say #19 plus #30 can get you up to #14-15.

[jpatrick]

I haven’t watched enough college this year to have a good feel for everyone. This is generally the tiers I see people ranked. Obviously not perfect.

Tier 1: Smith, Holmgren, Banchero
Tier 2: Ivey, Sharpe, Murray, Daniels
Tier 3: Mathurin, Griffin, Davis, Branham, Sochan, Eason, Duren, M. Williams, Dieng, Agbaji
Tier 4: J. Williams, Washington, T. Smith, Jovic, Hardy, Chandler, Liddell, Brown, LaRavia
Tier 5: Beauchamp, Kessler, Montero, McGowen, Koloko, Baldwin, Terry, Nembhard,

I watched some Ignite games this week. Love Daniels but no way he goes top five. He’s a great connector piece, but not a primary initiator. Hardy has some scoring ability but not sure he’s a winning player.

Watched Dieng in two games. I’d take him at 19 because with that length and skill, the ceiling is there. I could also see him being a complete bust though if the shot and toughness don’t come around.

One guy I don’t like but I could see us taking is Smith (NC State). He’s a Bones Hyland/Jordan Poole type small athletic scorer. I don’t see how he can defend though. And I struggle taking players I see as having a bench role as a ceiling.

[cupcakesnake]

At the end of the day I'm hoping the Wolves draft someone who profiles as a defensive impact guy and plays the 3/4. I think as long as we're a Towns/Ant team, this is going to be the area we need the biggest impact in. I love McDaniels and am still optimistic about Vando, but wouldn't mind adding another player to that part of the rotation.

There are some seriously decent players in that mold in this draft: Liddell, Eason, Sochan, Kendall Brown, Dalen Terry, Ron Harper Jr., Julian Champagnie, Harrison Ingram.

I'm less into the shorter 3 and D guys: Ochai Abaji and Malaki Branham. I just don't see lineups with Ant and D'Lo (or another guard) being a good fit with 6'5" dudes underwhelming as our 3. I know we got it done with Pat Bev this year, but I never felt that was ideal or a strength for us. I'd like a dude who has the length and strength to play some 4 next to KAT, and/or pair well with McDaniels (be stronger on the boards, beefier in the post).

Liddell for me is the most obvious combination of checking all these boxes and being likely available at 19. If he's off the board (as Sochan and Eason probably will), I'm looking down the list even though some of these guys are projected second round picks.

GMs often go BPA but my little list here might be irrelevant and the Wolves could end up draft a guard or center just because they think that player is going to be good.

[Klomp]

RIP jamaalstar21

[cupcakesnake]

What are the chances of this Jalen Williams being available at 19?

Consensus mock drafts have him on the first round bubble. I'd say it's pretty likely.

He also comes across as one of most intelligent player's i've ever seen interviewed pre-draft. Would love to get him.

One concern I do have is his playstyle.

He's VERY PnR heavy and that's not something we run a lot of, as we've seen with some of DLo's struggles. And if we're not running those plays for him, is he going to have the same success everyone is projecting he will? Honestly I'm not sure.

Because he's sort of an interesting case study into measurements vs games, as while he measured athletically incredibly well...it doesn't seem to translate to the court.

He does remind me a ton of D'Lo. A little less dynamic/mobile, but that 7'2" winspan just makes him a whole other size of player. I think Jalen Williams offers a lot of versatility and will probably never play that high usage style he played at Santa Clara. He's really good in catch & shoot, and might have some juice as a finisher (harder to project that as an NBA skill). He's a pretty nice defender too. Not quick, but long and disruptive. I think he has a bright future as a secondary creator and you don't have to put the ball in his hands all the time.

But I'm also a guy that doesn't think D'Lo is a bad fit in our system. Had he knocked down his normal rate of C&S attempts this year he would have had an awesome season. Instead he had a ton of cold streaks. But look at D'lo's career overall, he's been 100% gucci operating off the ball.

[Krapinsky]

Tyty Washington is the guy that reminds me most of D-Lo in this draft

[jpatrick]

Tyty Washington is the guy that reminds me most of D-Lo in this draft

I’ve seen TyTy say that DLo is actually one of the players he models his game after. I just watched his game vs LSU. This is pre-injury and with Sahvir Wheeler out injured, so TyTy got to play point guard. He can shoot some. Makes some good decisions/passes. But is unable to create any separation or really get to the basket. He’s a very poor man’s version of DLo. In college, DLo was bigger, longer, better shooter, and better passer.

I’m not sure about Eason. The good, his body/length look like a young Kawhi. He looks heavier than 217. The bad, although his box scores look alright, watching him makes me question what will translate. His offense consists of putting his head down and charging at the basketball, usually out of control. His handle consists of only straight line drives with his right hand. He shot 36% from three but he shot-puts it off his shoulder. It needs a major overhaul. 80% from the line though, so it could be done. On defense, you can see he’s an athlete with great length. Not sure about instincts.

Long story short, with that length/athleticism, if he really is a worker, I’d take him. His offensive game is Vando raw imo…although he has better hands. On defense, if he dedicates himself, he could be a force. I’ve read in a couple places there may have BBIQ and/or maturity issues though (truth or smokescreen?), which is an issue with a guy that needs to improve in so many areas.

Edit: watching Auburn/LSU now. Eason nice sequence. Pokes the ball away from Jabari Smith (who has no handle btw) and then in a blur goes coast-to-coast with a nifty and-one finish. All dribbling with right hand of course. If interviews/background shows Eason is a hard worker with no maturity issues, I’d take him. He’s an impressive athlete.

[younggunsmn]

Jovic looks like a real boom/bust prospect. I really like how quickly and easily he shoots it. He is wiry strong. Upside is maybe a more athletic Danilo Galinari. But very raw and not a lot of sample size.

I really think we can get a good player if we stay at 19. Not any complete players, but lots of guys with translatable skills.
Really don't want an undersized 4 or a wing who can't shoot and/or dribble or a point who can't get to the basket.
No on TyTy Washington. Is EJ Liddell both quick enough to switch and enough of a widebody to hold his own as a rebounder?
Looks like Walker Kessler might be the one true 5 to fall to 19.

Jalen Williams looks OK, would be nice to have a guy on our bench who can go get a bucket.

May even be able to get a rotation piece at the end of the first if we can trade back in. Maybe some cash plus 2 of our seconds would be enough?

[moss_is_1]

Jovic looks like a real boom/bust prospect. I really like how quickly and easily he shoots it. He is wiry strong. Upside is maybe a more athletic Danilo Galinari. But very raw and not a lot of sample size.

More athletic Gallo is a nasty player. I don't think he'll be that good. Gallo in Denver was an all-star level player, sort of like a 6'10 ginobili in his game. One of my favorite players in his prime.

[Mattya]

Jaylin Williams looks like a no brainer steal for this team in the second round.

[KGdaBom]

Jovic looks like a real boom/bust prospect. I really like how quickly and easily he shoots it. He is wiry strong. Upside is maybe a more athletic Danilo Galinari. But very raw and not a lot of sample size.

I really think we can get a good player if we stay at 19. Not any complete players, but lots of guys with translatable skills.
Really don't want an undersized 4 or a wing who can't shoot and/or dribble or a point who can't get to the basket.
No on TyTy Washington. Is EJ Liddell both quick enough to switch and enough of a widebody to hold his own as a rebounder?
Looks like Walker Kessler might be the one true 5 to fall to 19.

Jalen Williams looks OK, would be nice to have a guy on our bench who can go get a bucket.

May even be able to get a rotation piece at the end of the first if we can trade back in. Maybe some cash plus 2 of our seconds would be enough?

If Jovic is a more athletic Gallo than let's draft him yesterday. More athletic Gallo means he can shoot and handle and do everything Gallo does, but with more athleticism.

[KGdaBom]

Jovic looks like a real boom/bust prospect. I really like how quickly and easily he shoots it. He is wiry strong. Upside is maybe a more athletic Danilo Galinari. But very raw and not a lot of sample size.

More athletic Gallo is a nasty player. I don't think he'll be that good. Gallo in Denver was an all-star level player, sort of like a 6'10 ginobili in his game. One of my favorite players in his prime.

Brilliant minds thinking alike.

[Neeva]

This draft class is bad.

[shangrila]

Not sure I see the "more athletic" part. Jovic is taller AFAIK but I think you're all underrating how athletic a younger Gallinari was.

[Nick K]

His 3pt shot looks good

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Damn, The guy never misses!

Seriously, I like the guy more and more. He's got that Al Horford, PJ Tucker, Charles Barkley body type. He had a 35" standing jump at the combine. Pretty good for a big guy. 1st team all big ten and more pro ready compared to so many others.

If Duren amd Mark Williams are gone I might go with EJ. His shooting from the outside is a bonus.

I love that big thick body banging inside with Towns. Just what we meed.

[Nick K]

What are the chances of this Jalen Williams being available at 19?

Consensus mock drafts have him on the first round bubble. I'd say it's pretty likely.

He also comes across as one of most intelligent player's i've ever seen interviewed pre-draft. Would love to get him.

One concern I do have is his playstyle.

He's VERY PnR heavy and that's not something we run a lot of, as we've seen with some of DLo's struggles. And if we're not running those plays for him, is he going to have the same success everyone is projecting he will? Honestly I'm not sure.

Because he's sort of an interesting case study into measurements vs games, as while he measured athletically incredibly well...it doesn't seem to translate to the court.

I am intrigued with the other Williams....Jaylin Williams the PF/C from Arkansas. I like him a lot. Do we really need another SG/SF? At this point in the draft you pick for need.

[Slim Tubby]

If we traded all four (4) of our picks, how far could we move up in your opinion?

Not very far, I’m afraid. While 2nd rounders are fun for internet draft junkies, they have never been given a lot of value by GM’s, because the chance to find a legit player in the second round is so risky. Pat Riley gives them away like candy. MIL and CHI didn’t mind forfeiting theirs, in order to make a free agent deal earlier than the rules allow. Moreover, what team needs three second rounders?

I have numerical data on the top 30 picks, that has proven to be an accurate predictor. However, if we believed that 40, 48 and 50 can get you Pick #30, my numbers say #19 plus #30 can get you up to #14-15.

Thanks…probably not high enough to land Williams or Duren but should be enough to get Eason or Sochan. If Connelly focuses his draft intel on PG’s, it might be an indicator that he’s looking at Russell deals.


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[shrink]

I had a couple questions on how I assign valuation for combining picks. I have always used the Aaron Barzilai valuations (that I discovered you can access through a link at Tankathon), but that paper was written in 2008, so more current numbers can be found here from Kevin Pelton. He also has done the work for second round picks, which is nice for us this year.

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The process I use is the same. Each pick is given a value based on the career performance for every player picked at that spot. Then, to combine picks, I give half value for the lower pick in a 2-for-1, and a third value for the lowest pick in a 3-for-1. This simulates being unable to find the minutes to develop and play multiple players, and it seems to come pretty close to past results.

For instance, MIN has the #19 pick (1210 points), #40 (480), #48 (380) and #50 (350). If we wondered how far we could move up using #19 and #40, that would be 1210 + (480/2) = 1450. Looking at the chart, 1450 points would be worth maybe the 14-15th pick.

Also note that these are averages over many seasons, but each draft is different, with different individual players, that different teams would have different interests in drafting. Maybe CLE a would trade the #14 this year, and maybe they wouldn’t. The results are just the averages over time of what would be a fair value trade.