Who's your pick? (Poll included)

[buzzkilloton]

My whole post was referring to FATAL flaws. AKA something that makes them unplayable (like Garza's foot speed). Sorry, but being a 75% FT shooter is not one of those. Otto Porter was a 75% FT shooter in college (and similar now) who shoots 40% from three in the NBA. There are many examples of this. He projects to be at least a solid outside shooter.

No one ever said Murray was a flawless player. Just that he doesn't have many glaring weaknesses in his game.

Yeah if hes just a "solid outside shooter" hes not going to be worth a 5 pick. Like to be worth pick 5 he needs to be a really good 3pt shooter with the skillset he has. There is a world where he is only solid and then suddenly its not hard to see him a bust for me.

Not sure why you're even making the Porter point like of course its not every single time its just more likely. The free throw thing is a fact tons of stuff on google by the way. This has been beaten to death over the past 10 years of scouting.

https://harvardsportsanalysis.org/2020/10/scouting-nba-three-point-shooting/

"In conclusion, we found that in predicting the quality of a 3-point shooter, the player’s college free throw percentage was more important than college 3-point percentage or attempts. For future work, one could compare the model to scouting projections to see where the model adds value to the existing perceptions."

Also no one called Murray an "Elite" outside shooter like you mentioned in the previous post. All of these arguments seem to be based around things no one was actually arguing in the first place. Like Murray is "Flawless" or an "Elite" shooter. It just so happens that he might be the BPA at #5 because while the other players have more of an enticing "mystery box" quality, Weaver could decide their risk/reward ratio makes them very unlikely to be better than Keegan.

It's one thing to miss on a high risk pick at #10-15, it's another to miss on that kind of risky prospect at #5. Especially after Killian. Since then weaver took Cade (safe pick), Bey (older player, safe pick), Stewart (seen as lower upside/energy guy). Keegan just seems like his type of player.

I'm the one saying Murray needs to be a elite shooter to be worth the 5 pick. We are drafting him to be a 3nD player. He has absolutely no mid range game whatsoever. He has a bunch of shots at the rim but again those arent going to be as easy in the NBA.

If you're not expecting elite 3pt shooter then I dont even know why you would draft this guy at 5 its the only route he has to being worth it.

[Manocad]

LOL. This cracks me up

[Kalamazoo317]

The argument for Murray and Mathurin, IMO, is they have the right temperament to work hard on every play and take on the role asked of them to win on a team. Some other guys seem a bit more focused on getting theirs, which might be tougher on a team with a clear leader and several mouths to feed already. I know folks really want to get a superstar out of this pick, but we might not be in terrible shape getting a reliable starter who fits with the team.

That said, I'm not sure Murray fits unless we move Grant for something. Mathurin fits better than Ivey, IMO. Sharpe, who knows?

[A_dub06]

The argument for Murray and Mathurin, IMO, is they have the right temperament to work hard on every play and take on the role asked of them to win on a team. Some other guys seem a bit more focused on getting theirs, which might be tougher on a team with a clear leader and several mouths to feed already. I know folks really want to get a superstar out of this pick, but we might not be in terrible shape getting a reliable starter who fits with the team.

That said, I'm not sure Murray fits unless we move Grant for something. Mathurin fits better than Ivey, IMO. Sharpe, who knows?

I think having both Bey and Murray starting is going to be an issue defensively, neither of them are that fast and may not be able defend well against athletic players. I don’t think Cade is that much of an athlete either meaning we would have 3 out of 5 starters with average athleticism, leaving us vulnerable to being run off the floor.

I also don’t think it’s a given that Murray will become an offensive force the way he was this year in college, which coupled with a lower ceiling I think could hurt our team down the line.

At this stage I’m hoping it’s either Sharpe, Ivey or Daniels in that order for preference. Daniels is really interesting and has the potential to be really good but has kinks to work out like I guess most do in our range.

[The Moose]

Watch on YouTube

3:00 onwards

some interesting intel on Chet and the Pistons

Seems like the Pistons really like Chet, and really wanted him, seeing him as a perfect partner with Cade.
If he doesn't go 1, and Weaver really does wants him, I think we would have enough to make an offer.

Especially if Presti and OKC want to keep tanking one more year for Wemby who is being dubbed 'the best prospect ever evaluated' by ESPN. OKC in that case could be more interested in taking a chance on Sharpe and just tanking the season. Chet likely adds a lot more wins to their season next year than Sharpe does.
The connection is clear, being that Weaver and Presti obviously go way back and worked together for years.

The big part of this connection is that OKC owns our protected future first. I think if we lightened the protections to make it actually likely to convey next year, we could move up from 5 to 2.

Something like :

#5 + 2023 1st rounder (changed from top 18 protected to top 4 protected) for #2

[Jsindto]

Watch on YouTube

3:00 onwards

some interesting intel on Chet and the Pistons

Seems like the Pistons really like Chet, and really wanted him, seeing him as a perfect partner with Cade.
If he doesn't go 1, and Weaver really does wants him, I think we would have enough to make an offer.

Especially if Presti and OKC want to keep tanking one more year for Wemby who is being dubbed 'the best prospect ever evaluated' by ESPN. OKC in that case could be more interested in taking a chance on Sharpe and just tanking the season. Chet likely adds a lot more wins to their season next year than Sharpe does.
The connection is clear, being that Weaver and Presti obviously go way back and worked together for years.

The big part of this connection is that OKC owns our protected future first. I think if we lightened the protections to make it actually likely to convey next year, we could move up from 5 to 2.

Something like :

#5 + 2023 1st rounder (changed from top 18 protected to top 4 protected) for #2

Interesting discussion point. I don't think that gets it done though. You may have to get a 3rd team involved to trade Grant for, say, the #10 pick and include that as well.

I'll say that I wouldn't do it if it would need to include Grant, but if they LOVE Chet, I wouldn't hate it.

And if they can get #2 for what you're proposing, I do it in a heartbeat.

[whitehops]

Something like :

#5 + 2023 1st rounder (changed from top 18 protected to top 4 protected) for #2

i actually have no idea if the league would allow for protections to be changed (i wouldn't think so?) but we'd almost definitely have to remove protections altogether. in this scenario OKC would WANT as many lottery balls to get wembanyama, who is almost 100% going 1st overall next year.

[Jsindto]

Something like :

#5 + 2023 1st rounder (changed from top 18 protected to top 4 protected) for #2

i actually have no idea if the league would allow for protections to be changed (i wouldn't think so?) but we'd almost definitely have to remove protections altogether. in this scenario OKC would WANT as many lottery balls to get wembanyama, who is almost 100% going 1st overall next year.

They would still be getting a trade asset next year though in case they fall short. Because let's say there's a 5% chance they get our pick next year with top 18 protection. That won't be a trade asset they have in hand next year. But if we finish #8 next year, and remain #8 after the lottery, that's a huge trade piece they would have that they otherwise wouldn't.

I under no circumstance would offer up a non-top 4 protected pick. You only do that if you have a great team and there's a 95% chance of being in the playoff. We'll likely have like a 25% chance of moving into the top 4 next year. I'm not risking that chance.

[NYPiston]

I'm the one saying Murray needs to be a elite shooter to be worth the 5 pick. We are drafting him to be a 3nD player. He has absolutely no mid range game whatsoever. He has a bunch of shots at the rim but again those arent going to be as easy in the NBA.

If you're not expecting elite 3pt shooter then I dont even know why you would draft this guy at 5 its the only route he has to being worth it.

This isn't really true, Murray can score from all levels. I get being critical of his lateral movement and his ability to defend quicker 4's and his lack of playmaking but he can get a bucket from anywhere on the court including mid range. I don't think anybody sees Murray as a pure 3 and D guy, not at all. Mathurin, Griffin potentially if they improve their defense. Those are your 3 and D types in the lottery. You draft Murray, you're drafting an efficient 3 level scorer like a Tobias Harris type.

[buzzkilloton]

I'm the one saying Murray needs to be a elite shooter to be worth the 5 pick. We are drafting him to be a 3nD player. He has absolutely no mid range game whatsoever. He has a bunch of shots at the rim but again those arent going to be as easy in the NBA.

If you're not expecting elite 3pt shooter then I dont even know why you would draft this guy at 5 its the only route he has to being worth it.

This isn't really true, Murray can score from all levels. I get being critical of his lateral movement and his ability to defend quicker 4's and his lack of playmaking but he can get a bucket from anywhere on the court including mid range. I don't think anybody sees Murray as a pure 3 and D guy, not at all. Mathurin, Griffin potentially if they improve their defense. Those are your 3 and D types in the lottery. You draft Murray, you're drafting an efficient 3 level scorer like a Tobias Harris type.

Sure bud hes just17/56 in the mid range because hes a 3 level scorer. Look at a shot chart next time if you want to call out something as not true.

[NYPiston]

Sure bud hes just17/56 in the mid range because hes a 3 level scorer. Look at a shot chart next time if you want to call out something as not true.

He can score in mid range, I've seen it with my own eyes, unlike somebody like Ivey who has a virtually non-existent mid range game.
Sure he needs some improvement in his mid range efficiency but he's certainly capable of scoring in the mid range.

He's not a pure "3 and D" guy, I'll tell you that much.
As I said, he's similar to a guy like Harris. He's a pure scorer that is adept at creating shots with body movement and craftiness and I say all this as a guy who doesn't prefer Murray at 5.

[buzzkilloton]

Sure bud hes just17/56 in the mid range because hes a 3 level scorer. Look at a shot chart next time if you want to call out something as not true.

He can score in mid range, I've seen it with my own eyes, unlike somebody like Ivey who has a virtually non-existent mid range game.
Sure he needs some improvement in his mid range efficiency but he's certainly capable of scoring in the mid range.

He's not a pure "3 and D" guy, I'll tell you that much.
As I said, he's similar to a guy like Harris. He's a pure scorer that is adept at creating shots with body movement and craftiness and I say all this as a guy who doesn't prefer Murray at 5.

You seen it maybe 17 times in total because thats all he made all season there.

Hes wasnt a pure 3nd player in college because in college he was older,bigger,and stronger then everyone he could bully at 6'8 215. Hes not going to be anywhere near as good at the rim in the pros.

[The Moose]

Something like :

#5 + 2023 1st rounder (changed from top 18 protected to top 4 protected) for #2

i actually have no idea if the league would allow for protections to be changed (i wouldn't think so?) but we'd almost definitely have to remove protections altogether. in this scenario OKC would WANT as many lottery balls to get wembanyama, who is almost 100% going 1st overall next year.

As far as I know , it’s still possible to lighten protection on picks, it’s happened recently.
I think top 4 is fair still if they really wanted to tank. I’m just using the Trae/Luka swap as a base, which from memory was swapping picks plus Dallas giving up a top 5 protected future 1st

[Pharaoh]

Something like :

#5 + 2023 1st rounder (changed from top 18 protected to top 4 protected) for #2

i actually have no idea if the league would allow for protections to be changed (i wouldn't think so?) but we'd almost definitely have to remove protections altogether. in this scenario OKC would WANT as many lottery balls to get wembanyama, who is almost 100% going 1st overall next year.

As far as I know , it’s still possible to lighten protection on picks, it’s happened recently.
I think top 4 is fair still if they really wanted to tank. I’m just using the Trae/Luka swap as a base, which from memory was swapping picks plus Dallas giving up a top 5 protected future 1st

The Luka/Trae deal is the base I'd use too.

That said I don't do that deal to land Chet. He still terrifies me as a prospect.

I'm content at 5 and not willing to give up a extra pick for a "chance" at a "star".

I'd sooner take Daniels or Sharpe at 5 and walk away

Sent from my SM-G781B using RealGM Forums mobile app

[buzzkilloton]

3:00 onwards

some interesting intel on Chet and the Pistons

Seems like the Pistons really like Chet, and really wanted him, seeing him as a perfect partner with Cade.
If he doesn't go 1, and Weaver really does wants him, I think we would have enough to make an offer.

Especially if Presti and OKC want to keep tanking one more year for Wemby who is being dubbed 'the best prospect ever evaluated' by ESPN. OKC in that case could be more interested in taking a chance on Sharpe and just tanking the season. Chet likely adds a lot more wins to their season next year than Sharpe does.
The connection is clear, being that Weaver and Presti obviously go way back and worked together for years.

The big part of this connection is that OKC owns our protected future first. I think if we lightened the protections to make it actually likely to convey next year, we could move up from 5 to 2.

Something like :
#5 + 2023 1st rounder (changed from top 18 protected to top 4 protected) for #2

Chet really would of been a nice partner. Rare for a 7footer to have a basketball IQ like Chets to go with the swiss army knife tool kit and length.

If Weaver has a good read on Chet I can stomach top 3 protected. I would see this as him saying Chets going to be our 2nd star and hes the best guy in the draft. This would be a career defining move for Weaver and a franchise altering move for us. I'd likely fire Weaver if this didnt work or extend him huge if it did lol.

[Snakebites]

It’s hard to imagine OKC trading down.

They need to consolidate assets, not break them down, and they seem to like Chet too.

[Jsindto]

It’s hard to imagine OKC trading down.

They need to consolidate assets, not break them down, and they seem to like Chet too.

The only logic is if they were to tank hard for Wembanyama. And any asset is just something available to go all in for a trade up if they don't win #1.

I don't think that's what they'll do, but that is the only logic to trading out of #2.

[Pharaoh]

It’s hard to imagine OKC trading down.

They need to consolidate assets, not break them down, and they seem to like Chet too.

The only logic is if they were to tank hard for Wembanyama. And any asset is just something available to go all in for a trade up if they don't win #1.

I don't think that's what they'll do, but that is the only logic to trading out of #2.

Easier to take Chet and still tank.

They're tanking with SGA there already so not difficult to roll out line ups that will get waxed.

Chet - Poku + any 3 you like is getting killed for most of the season IMO

Sent from my SM-G781B using RealGM Forums mobile app

[zeebneeb]

Watch on YouTube

3:00 onwards

some interesting intel on Chet and the Pistons

Seems like the Pistons really like Chet, and really wanted him, seeing him as a perfect partner with Cade.
If he doesn't go 1, and Weaver really does wants him, I think we would have enough to make an offer.

Especially if Presti and OKC want to keep tanking one more year for Wemby who is being dubbed 'the best prospect ever evaluated' by ESPN. OKC in that case could be more interested in taking a chance on Sharpe and just tanking the season. Chet likely adds a lot more wins to their season next year than Sharpe does.
The connection is clear, being that Weaver and Presti obviously go way back and worked together for years.

The big part of this connection is that OKC owns our protected future first. I think if we lightened the protections to make it actually likely to convey next year, we could move up from 5 to 2.

Something like :

#5 + 2023 1st rounder (changed from top 18 protected to top 4 protected) for #2

I haven't given much thought about trading up as I feel the top 6(maybe even 7)all have about the same chance to become a damn good player in the league.

If Weaver thinks Chet would be the perfect fit next to Cade, and seeing as how its his job to now build around Cade as he nailed that pick, then he absolutely has the ability to make OKC think about it. It'll cost him at least two picks in this draft, so trading Grant is a must, and probably top 3 protected next year.

Thing is though, if you can nail TWO all world talents back to back, everything is expendable.

If you miss, well, your ass is grass.

[joseph mamah]

Pre combine I was waffling between Ivey and Sharpe, post combine and after a little more research, Sharpes off my board and Mathurin is the guy I'm starting to lean towards. I know Sharpe is probably doing what's best for him business wise, but something about that whole situation just smells funny to me.

Iveys potential is sky high if he puts it all together, but given the fact that his mom is a high level basketball coach it worries me that his fundamentals and bball iq are a little subpar at this point.

He can't finish with his left hand, and he doesnt create much for others. If the jumper he flashed last year ends up being fools gold we could have Rodney Stuckey 2.0 on our hands, and that's definitely one nightmare I don't wanna relive.

There may not be much star potential with Mathurin unless he tightens his handles up alot, but his (potential) shooting ability, perimeter D and overall athleticism on the wing are things this team desperately needs. He also seems to have the strong work ethic and high motor that I like to see in a player.

So all in all, if the draft were today id go with Mathurin, but I might end up talking myself into swinging for the fences on Ivey by draft time.

I do know that i would definitely pass on Murray. I'm not really a big fan of Holmgren or Paolo either.