2022 NBA Draft Part II

[The Moose]

Seems Feigen, rockets most senior beat writer, is confident it will be Paolo at 3.

So we will get
1. Jabari
2. Chet
3. Paolo


Then the draft really starts with Sacramento

I still think Chet is going 1, he just fits the magic's draft philosophy/model too well

[clyde21]

Seems Feigen, rockets most senior beat writer, is confident it will be Paolo at 3.

So we will get
1. Jabari
2. Chet
3. Paolo


Then the draft really starts with Sacramento

not earth shattering news here? #3 will always have took the remaining of the 'Big 3' most likely, unless there is some type of trade down. and yes the draft essentially starts at 4. Feigen not really breaking any news here lol.

[clyde21]

I think Paolo's defense is poopood too much. I think he'll be a plus defender in the NBA in time. Good size, good athleticism, knows where to be, talks a lot. In comparison to the other guys in the top 3 he looks worse and he also took a lot of plays off, which is pretty common for prospects with a big offensive load. Ben Simmons being the premium example, not saying Paolo will be that good on defense, just an example. Now enough of a plus to work with Sengun? I'm a bit skeptical of that as well but cross that bridge when you get there

Paolo's defense will depend entirely on if he can scale as a 5 in the NBA in some lineups/matchups, otherwise he's not really a great switch or nor a perimeter ISO guy either, really a lot of the same problems I had with Sengun as a defender coming out.

really he's just in no man's land as a defender at this point, doesn't really have a true role on that side of the ball so that's why I need to see if he can play some small ball 5 and be at least a passable defender in that capacity.

i agree it's not a great fit on defense, but offensively Sengun/Paolo is gonna be fun. both high IQ on that end, can pass, have real ball skills and shot making ability. problem is the defense so you'll most likely want to hedge with a big on your bench that can really defend and protect the rim.

[K_chile22]

I think Paolo's defense is poopood too much. I think he'll be a plus defender in the NBA in time. Good size, good athleticism, knows where to be, talks a lot. In comparison to the other guys in the top 3 he looks worse and he also took a lot of plays off, which is pretty common for prospects with a big offensive load. Ben Simmons being the premium example, not saying Paolo will be that good on defense, just an example. Now enough of a plus to work with Sengun? I'm a bit skeptical of that as well but cross that bridge when you get there

Paolo's defense will depend entirely on if he can scale as a 5 in the NBA in some lineups/matchups, otherwise he's not really a great switch or nor a perimeter ISO guy either, really a lot of the same problems I had with Sengun as a defender coming out.

really he's just in no man's land as a defender at this point, doesn't really have a true role on that side of the ball so that's why I need to see if he can play some small ball 5 and be at least a passable defender in that capacity.

i agree it's not a great fit on defense, but offensively Sengun/Paolo is gonna be fun. both high IQ on that end, can pass, have real ball skills and shot making ability. problem is the defense so you'll most likely want to hedge with a big on your bench that can really defend and protect the rim.

I don't think he's a switch onto small guards guy but he can defend pretty much any 4 just fine. Especially if he drops some weight, he was a lot quicker laterally in HS then added a bunch of muscle before playing for duke

[K_chile22]

Seems Feigen, rockets most senior beat writer, is confident it will be Paolo at 3.

So we will get
1. Jabari
2. Chet
3. Paolo


Then the draft really starts with Sacramento

I still think Chet is going 1, he just fits the magic's draft philosophy/model too well

I think it's all but certain to be Jabari at this point. Way too much smoke from Givoney, Feigen, and others at the combine. I think it *should be Chet as well, but seems the magic disagree

[God Squad]

I think Paolo's defense is poopood too much. I think he'll be a plus defender in the NBA in time. Good size, good athleticism, knows where to be, talks a lot. In comparison to the other guys in the top 3 he looks worse and he also took a lot of plays off, which is pretty common for prospects with a big offensive load. Ben Simmons being the premium example, not saying Paolo will be that good on defense, just an example. Now enough of a plus to work with Sengun? I'm a bit skeptical of that as well but cross that bridge when you get there

Yeah I've seen plenty of Paolo fans saying he'll be fine when motivated depending on position, as he has the tools. But from my eye test I thought he was okay at best and took a lot of plays off. I also don't like his potential archetype, but he's probably the closest of the three to become a 3 level scorer.

Jabari - 3+D - Elite jumper - safest from busting imo , but what else?
Chet - 2-way player with the highest ceiling AND bust potential
Paolo - 3 level scorer with suspect defense

It's fair to say all three have their question marks.

[CoreyVillains]

I recently got to sit down with Toledo's Ryan Rollins and talk about his pre-draft process. I've been a pretty big fan of Rollins throughout the cycle. I think he has a chance to be one of the guys we look back on and wonder why he went where he did.

Watch on YouTube

[Chi town]

I like Diabate as a 3rd big. Could be a future full time C as he fills in. More explosive Dwight Powell Maxi Kleiber type. JJJ lite.

[bon]

Don't really get the concept of taking Jabari at #1 just for the sake of "safety". Like I get it in cases where there's a clear cut BPA at the top, but not here where his talent is only somewhat comparable to the other top options but with far less overall upside. Speaking generally here, but it seems like a lot of people that have Jabari #1 aren't actually super high on his upside, they're just more worried about Paolo and Chet's potential downside. I feel like as a rebuilding team at the top of the draft, you should always be prioritising upside over fit or safety. The Kings have been taking "safe" picks for years and it hasn't done them much good.

[basketballRob]

If he plays like the best version of Tobias Harris but with defense, he will be well worth the #1 pick.

Tobias has a lot more variety to his scoring than Jabari has shown any signs of.

Though yeah, they are worlds apart on D and Jabari is young, so he can come up with some type of game inside the 3 point line.

Tobias is very mechanical as a pro. The things he does when he's at his best can all be learned. Tobias is worlds away from the player he was at Tennessee. He started inside and worked his way outside. Jabari is already outside and midrange/midpost. He can certainly finish inside, but attacking the basket hasn't been displayed as a strength yet. Unlike prospect Tobias he already has a shooting touch that will require defenders to fully respect him on the perimeter making his potential efforts to attack the basket simpler. If he doesn't go that route to become the best version of Tobias, Glenn Rice is an option. Tatum and Kris Middleton would be the ultimate most likely unachievable goal for Jabari's package of skills from my perspective, although I project him to be a better shooter than them.

Harris is 6'6.5" without shoes, Jabari is close to 6'10" without shoes. Jabari can guard multiple positions including slowing down guards, Tobias can't. Jabari can shoot over defenders and Tobias can't.

Jabari is also bigger than Rashard and shows signs of being a better shooter.

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[The-Power]

1. Chet
2. Paolo
3. Jabari
4. Mark
5. Mathurin
6. Sharpe
7. Ivey
8. Keegan
9. Liddell
10. AJ
11. Brown
12. Johnny
13. Agbaji
14. Eason

I probably just missed the explanation, but how did you end up with Williams this high? I remember the discussion about where he – and players of his archetype – should be drafted and you, along with clyde, had pretty strong opinions on not drafting him high at all.

Here's your post from November (bolded by me):

I think Mark is a better prospect than any of those guys. But with that said, I dont see the value of taking him high in the draft. Even if Mark is the top level of this archetype of a player, I dont think the impact difference is still great enough to make him worth a top 10ish or lotto pick, compared to say an average raw defensive big that you can get early 2nd.

This is why I dont think about taking raw athletic/defensive only bigs higher than 25 in the draft (I feel like if your picking 25th-30th in the 1st, youre an elite team and using a 1st on a guy like this can be worth it).

Gobert: 27th overall pick
Capella: 25th overall pick
Williams: 27th overall pick
Gafford: 38th overall pick
Mitchell Robinson: 36th overall pick

Those 5 guys make up half of the top 10 in blocked shots at the moment so far this season. Those are also kind of the who's who in defensive 1st bigs. You can throw Jarrett Allen in there as well (22nd overall pick).

That to me is when a player of this archetype enters my draft board. Basically the ideal 1st round pick for already elite teams who could use a 5, or the ideal 2nd round pick for a bad lotto team. But ya raw athletic 5s or defense only 5s, 25th pick and on is where the value becomes worth it. Not because they will end up being the 25th or worse player in the draft, but that is the time where you can find these guys in most drafts.

So he went from 25-40 all the way up to #4 on your draft board despite nothing fundamentally changing about him as a player as far as I can tell. And since your argument was a principled one (‘never draft players of this archetype high, no matter how good they are’), this rise is unexpected to say the least. As you explicitly mentioned: even if he was the best of this archetype you wouldn't take him in the lottery.

So if you don't mind me asking (I'm genuinely just curious, I don't mean to put you on the spot here): what has changed? Is it your philosophy regarding raw bigs, the archetype of Williams, or something else I'm missing?

[SelfishPlayer]

Tobias has a lot more variety to his scoring than Jabari has shown any signs of.

Though yeah, they are worlds apart on D and Jabari is young, so he can come up with some type of game inside the 3 point line.

Tobias is very mechanical as a pro. The things he does when he's at his best can all be learned. Tobias is worlds away from the player he was at Tennessee. He started inside and worked his way outside. Jabari is already outside and midrange/midpost. He can certainly finish inside, but attacking the basket hasn't been displayed as a strength yet. Unlike prospect Tobias he already has a shooting touch that will require defenders to fully respect him on the perimeter making his potential efforts to attack the basket simpler. If he doesn't go that route to become the best version of Tobias, Glenn Rice is an option. Tatum and Kris Middleton would be the ultimate most likely unachievable goal for Jabari's package of skills from my perspective, although I project him to be a better shooter than them.

Harris is 6'6.5" without shoes, Jabari is close to 6'10" without shoes. Jabari can guard multiple positions including slowing down guards, Tobias can't. Jabari can shoot over defenders and Tobias can't.

Jabari is also bigger than Rashard and shows signs of being a better shooter.

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What does Tobias Harris do in the NBA?

[Duke4life831]

1. Chet
2. Paolo
3. Jabari
4. Mark
5. Mathurin
6. Sharpe
7. Ivey
8. Keegan
9. Liddell
10. AJ
11. Brown
12. Johnny
13. Agbaji
14. Eason

I probably just missed the explanation, but how did you end up with Williams this high? I remember the discussion about where he – and players of his archetype – should be drafted and you, along with clyde, had pretty strong opinions on not drafting him high at all.

Here's your post from November (bolded by me):

I think Mark is a better prospect than any of those guys. But with that said, I dont see the value of taking him high in the draft. Even if Mark is the top level of this archetype of a player, I dont think the impact difference is still great enough to make him worth a top 10ish or lotto pick, compared to say an average raw defensive big that you can get early 2nd.

This is why I dont think about taking raw athletic/defensive only bigs higher than 25 in the draft (I feel like if your picking 25th-30th in the 1st, youre an elite team and using a 1st on a guy like this can be worth it).

Gobert: 27th overall pick
Capella: 25th overall pick
Williams: 27th overall pick
Gafford: 38th overall pick
Mitchell Robinson: 36th overall pick

Those 5 guys make up half of the top 10 in blocked shots at the moment so far this season. Those are also kind of the who's who in defensive 1st bigs. You can throw Jarrett Allen in there as well (22nd overall pick).

That to me is when a player of this archetype enters my draft board. Basically the ideal 1st round pick for already elite teams who could use a 5, or the ideal 2nd round pick for a bad lotto team. But ya raw athletic 5s or defense only 5s, 25th pick and on is where the value becomes worth it. Not because they will end up being the 25th or worse player in the draft, but that is the time where you can find these guys in most drafts.

So he went from 25-40 all the way up to #4 on your draft board despite nothing fundamentally changing about him as a player as far as I can tell. And since your argument was a principled one (‘never draft players of this archetype high, no matter how good they are’), this rise is unexpected to say the least. As you explicitly mentioned: even if he was the best of this archetype you wouldn't take him in the lottery.

So if you don't mind me asking (I'm genuinely just curious, I don't mean to put you on the spot here): what has changed? Is it your philosophy regarding raw bigs, the archetype of Williams, or something else I'm missing?

Big board is different than mock draft. Im much higher on Mark now than I was in November. I think he can be an elite defender very early on. But with that said, you still can get guys like I mentioned late in the draft. So the value still isn't great high up.

[The-Power]

If I’m the Magic I take Paolo they need a guy who can create and be a go to scorer

Then you shouldn't take Banchero but try your luck with an on-ball Guard/Wing instead.

[The-Power]

Murray is a totally different guy as a pure, position locked PF IMO. If you want 22PPG, he is probably the best bet of the 4 to get that. But I am not convinced he doesnt give up as much on the other end. He is basically the same size as Dyson while having more mass but isnt nearly as fluid, mobile, etc. With Dyson vs Murray, its whether you want a Batum / Bridges type of a Tobias / Warren type. I think any team wanting to win playoff games takes the former over the latter.

Defense is one of Murray's selling points, though. Harris or Warren with better defense (especially on the interior) would be a very useful player. And I'm struggling to understand what the Batum/Bridges/Daniels type actually is. What do they all have in common?

[The-Power]

The Kings have been taking "safe" picks for years and it hasn't done them much good.

They have? They did with Mitchell but beyond that I'm not so sure. Certainly with Bagley they tried to be cute and bet on wrongly perceived upside due to his explosive leaping ability when Luka clearly was the safe pick (ultimate bust-proof prospect even if we disregard his incredible upside that some people misjudged due to misplaced athleticism concerns). I wouldn't consider Fox a ‘safe’ pick either. Haliburton, on the other hand, was just an excellent and an obviously correct pick at #12. And that's their last four lottery selections.

[SelfishPlayer]

The Kings have been taking "safe" picks for years and it hasn't done them much good.

They have? They did with Mitchell but beyond that I'm not so sure. Certainly with Bagley they tried to be cute and bet on wrongly perceived upside due to his explosive leaping ability when Luka clearly was the safe pick (ultimate bust-proof prospect even if we disregard his incredible upside that some people misjudged due to misplaced athleticism concerns). I wouldn't consider Fox a ‘safe’ pick either. Haliburton, on the other hand, was just an excellent and an obviously correct pick at #12. And that's their last four lottery selections.

Luka wasn't bust proof. His defense till this very day is bad and he isn't a great shooter percentage wise. He is simply an unbelievable player. He is unbelievably good.

[CptCrunch]

I am starting to really like this draft.

We don't have a Lebron, a Luka or even an Irving or Simmons, but the draft seems to be full of players who can reach all-star level all the way to end of the lottery.

The draft also has many plus defenders in the lotto, and many players with freakish measurables in terms of length.

[SelfishPlayer]

Max Christie is interesting now that the dust has settled on his stock due to him being mocked/projected throughout the college season as a lottery selection leaving people bewildered as to why. Putting aside him once being overrated, his jump shot is absolutely beautiful. I can definitely one day see him being considered amongst the best shooters on the planet.

[The-Power]

Luka wasn't bust proof.

He absolutely was. A 6'8'' EuroLeague MVP was never going to bust, and most people also realized that at the time.