The 2022 NBA Finals | (3) Golden State Warriors VS. (2) Boston Celtics (BOS 1-0)

[meh]

Well, people who trust defensive rating metrics on the current rosters of the teams would, and that's more the audience I'm gunning for

No, they wouldn't:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nba-predictions/

Yeah... really wouldnt hang my hat on RAPTOR. We lost the last 2 series according to them... pretty handily too.

We will find out.

[FNQ]

No, they wouldn't:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nba-predictions/

Yeah... really wouldnt hang my hat on RAPTOR. We lost the last 2 series according to them... pretty handily too.

We will find out.

Now thats what I'm about

Klay on Brown is gonna be a pain point though

[jumblin]

The Celtics just went through 2 Hall of Famers in R1, defending champs and best player in the league in R2, and a number 1 seed that is more fundamentally sound and better coached than any team in the league. Their path has been far harder than the Warriors.

The Celtics do come off as mentally weak at times...but on the other hand they ended Kevin Durant's season on his home court, beat Giannis on his home court in G6 must-win after a crushing loss in G5, and just won a G7 on the road against a likely HoF coach.

They are not going to be intimidated by the Warriors, and they shouldn't be. After the brutal physicality of the MIL and MIA series, the Warrior's defense might feel light in comparison. We might go back to seeing what the Celtics offense was playing like for the last 4 months of the season when they were beating the league by 20pts every night.

[MagicFan12345]

so lets settle this before the goal posts start moving..

if dubs win this will there be an asterisk beside it?? do they have a "worthy" opponent in the celtics?

[meh]

Yeah... really wouldnt hang my hat on RAPTOR. We lost the last 2 series according to them... pretty handily too.

We will find out.

Now thats what I'm about

Klay on Brown is gonna be a pain point though

It's going to be great! Celts need to steal 1 of the first two.

[TheGOATRises007]

If you want to believe that the Warriors have a better defense than the Celtics, then OK. You'd find a tough time getting many to agree with you.

Well, people who trust defensive rating metrics on the current rosters of the teams would, and that's more the audience I'm gunning for

No, they wouldn't:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nba-predictions/

538 are terrible.

Their model sucks.

[meh]

Well, people who trust defensive rating metrics on the current rosters of the teams would, and that's more the audience I'm gunning for

No, they wouldn't:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nba-predictions/

538 are terrible.

Their model sucks.

They have had the Celtics winning it for a while. If the Celts win they will be correct. So I guess we will see.

[FNQ]

Well, people who trust defensive rating metrics on the current rosters of the teams would, and that's more the audience I'm gunning for

No, they wouldn't:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-nba-predictions/

538 are terrible.

Their model sucks.

All predictive models suck unless they are predicting what two AIs are gonna do. They use prior results to determine future outcomes, and that's a losing gambit.

Now if stats like RAPTOR could factor in intangibles, adjustments, time importance.. then sure, they could be somewhat predictive. But they all assume you cannot learn or adjust, which is why they're unreliable and why Vegas tends to ignore them. You want a model to believe in? Follow the big money..

That said, RAPTOR is better than most at telling you what already happened and how it happened, which is certainly valuable

[kazyv]

i can see gsw going up 3:0 again, very easily. but to keep it safe, let's say warriors in 6. i think tatum should consider himself lucky to play his first finals against the warriors, because even if his nerves/inexperience show, that won't be a talking point after the series. everyone will agree that the warriors were a much better team and celtics never had a chance

[Blaze4G]

One of the hardest series to predict imo. I am a huge curry fan so I feel like it's a win win situation for me although I do prefer Celtics to win.

Warriors only real test was the grizzlies...which looked like it could have easily gone 7 games. I believe the celtics are better than the Grizzlies.

I feel the physical defense of the celtics will overcome the celtics offensive droughts. Celtics in 6 but not confident at all.

[meh]

So excited for this series!!

[Blaze4G]

Wait what

Our team fully healthy, which it is now, had a defensive rating that was literally 3 full points ahead of everyone. We lost our best defensive player for 30 games.

But your cherry pick counts? Hmmm

I "cherry picked" the last 5 months!?!?!? WTF? There is less of the season before Jan 1 vs after Jan 1. LMAO.

Actually it was 3.5 months, which is slightly over half the season. Mine has 34 games. And oh yeah, key point - we had our best defensive player then (its actually the crux of the argument)

Like how do you not get this? I dont know how to make it simpler

I agree warriors defense is really good but using before Jan 1st is not a good sample size since their schedule was extremely soft the first 2 months of the season. Likewise using after Jan 1st for the sample size is not good either since it's without draymond for most of it.

[FNQ]

I "cherry picked" the last 5 months!?!?!? WTF? There is less of the season before Jan 1 vs after Jan 1. LMAO.

Actually it was 3.5 months, which is slightly over half the season. Mine has 34 games. And oh yeah, key point - we had our best defensive player then (its actually the crux of the argument)

Like how do you not get this? I dont know how to make it simpler

I agree warriors defense is really good but using before Jan 1st is not a good sample size since their schedule was extremely soft the first 2 months of the season. Likewise using after Jan 1st for the sample size is not good either since it's without draymond for most of it.

Bingo

to quote Matthew Berry - I can convince you the team A is the best in the world or the worst in the world, I just need to select the right stats for the job.

At the end of the day, the Warriors and Celtics, injuries, schedule, everything included, finished within percentage points of each other in DRtg. We can zoom in to frame it any other way - the Celtics did it later in the season, the Warriors were lower when Draymond was healthy - but neither way is going to answer who has the better defense in this series, against the same team 4-7 times where all the bags of tricks will be emptied

[durden_tyler]

The Celtics defense will be exposed-- they haven't met a team like the Warriors these playoffs.

[meh]

The Celtics defense will be exposed-- they haven't met a team like the Warriors these playoffs.

Except they've actually played the Warriors, but do tell!

[Miami_Lux]

The Celtics defense will be exposed-- they haven't met a team like the Warriors these playoffs.

That's just a silly claim. You could easily turn this around and say the Warriors haven t faced a defense like the Celtics.

[Franco]

Think this is the first time in my life I'm rooting for the cancellation of the NBA playoffs

[TheLand13]

Celtics have had guys miss plenty of games as well.

TimeLord hasn’t been healthy the whole playoffs and missed 7 of 17 games.

Smart missed a game in the Bucks series and 2 in the Heat series and was clearly hobbled.

Horford missed game 1 of the Heat series.

White missed a game of the Heat series.

Sure other teams have carried injuries as well but the Celtics have had their fair share and not used it as an excuse.

You had a fully healthy team in game 6 while Miami was missing Hero and you couldn’t close it out. You had two games against the bucks where your team was fully healthy… and you lost. In fact, three of your four wins in that series was while missing one of those players.

Cool story. We won some fully healthy and lost some fully healthy. They’re tight series, it’s the way it goes.

The Grizz won a game without Ja Morant, does that mean they’re better off without him? I’m not sure what point you’re trying to prove.

Did you even read my post to begin with? It’s pretty clear what my point is. You lost multiple key games while having a fully healthy team while the other team didn’t. I acknowledge that your team had injury issues. They aren’t the reason why these series were closer than they were supposed to be.

[KIRAG]

Read on Twitter

[Miami_Lux]

You had a fully healthy team in game 6 while Miami was missing Hero and you couldn’t close it out. You had two games against the bucks where your team was fully healthy… and you lost. In fact, three of your four wins in that series was while missing one of those players.

Cool story. We won some fully healthy and lost some fully healthy. They’re tight series, it’s the way it goes.

The Grizz won a game without Ja Morant, does that mean they’re better off without him? I’m not sure what point you’re trying to prove.

Did you even read my post to begin with? It’s pretty clear what my point is. You lost multiple key games while having a fully healthy team while the other team didn’t. I acknowledge that your team had injury issues. They aren’t the reason why these series were closer than they were supposed to be.

Don t try to reason with this guy. He is the worst Celtic homer on this board. He will go to incredible lengths to defend his team. A true fanatic.