Alright, the finals matchup is here, and it's the best of the best. Fantastic!
A shout out to the Bucks. Injuries are a part of the game, the Celtics have nothing to apologize for (best overall team over the course of the seaosn without questions), but I think we're all wondering what would have happened if Khris Middleton was healthy. In all honesty, my guess is that we'd have a Golden State vs Milwaukee finals.
I'll say what I said before though: I think GS has the matchup edge over Milwaukee, and I think Boston has it over GS.
Now, to be clear about terms: I think Memphis has the matchup edge over GS. Didn't mean they'd win the series - didn't even mean I thought they'd win the series - but they do something to GS that makes GS' preferred approach harder. I think Boston ought to be able to do the same.
Now's the obvious time to give a prediction, and I suppose I will but let me say a bit more, because I always feel like I'm more insightful illustrating possibilities than I am saying which one will actually come into being.
1. I think GS was the most impressive team in the first half of the RS, and Boston was most impressive in the second half (Phoenix was the most impressive over the entirety of the RS)
2. I think Boston was the most impressive team in the 1st & 2nd rounds of the PS, and GS was most impressive in the conference finals.
3. I think Boston seems like the closest thing to an ideal defense to slow down the GS offense that we see in the league today. The collection of talent that has great defenders basically all the way down their rotation, to go along with very smart coaching, and years of their core 4 playing together.
4. I trust GS' mental ability to keep figuring out that next trick, and responding adroitly to it.
I find myself thinking about this in terms of something that I tend to call "character", which was the term used in the 1961 movie
The Hustler.
In that movie about a pool shark, the young hotshot Fast Eddie goes up against the old pro Minnesota Fats. Eddie gets off to the lead - and to be clear, "lead" here means making money by winning games, these guys are playing games of pool that go very quickly because essentially one missed shot means you lose the game - but over time Fats is able to rattle Eddie, and eventually Eddie goes broke.
The owner of the pool hall, Bert Gordon - a card shark - tells Eddie he has talent but not "character", the way Fats does.
Eddie goes on, lives his life, experiences some real trauma, and comes back and kicks Fats butt decisively.
I'll also point to the man behind the title character in "Cinderella Man",
Jim Braddock. Who after coming up the boxing ranks and hitting a ceiling, left the sport, only to come back during the Great Depression thinking of nothing but feeding his family...and now he becomes a champion.
And then of course, we can talk about other matches between a competitor who has been around the block and the young upstart who analytically has already surpassed the old man. GOAT example of this is Ali vs Foreman.
These are the things on my mind right now on a gut level having just watched the conference finals.
Earlier I said that I thought the Warriors had the higher ceiling if they could just reach it...but the more I ponder the matchup here, I'm not sure about that either as a general statement or from a matchup perspective.
I feel like these Celtics should be able to take this series, and based on their total season play absolutely deserve to be the favorite...
yet, having seen has put together the Warriors seemed last round, and how much the Celtics seemed to still get in their own head, I find myself thinking Warriors.
but as I say that, I think you could very much argue that these Celtics may have already gone through enough tribulation to be more like the older Fast Eddie than the younger. Beating the Heat and getting past the conference finals is a big deal for these Celtics, and it's possible they'll now play with greater confidence - particularly against a Warrior core they've had some success against in the past.
Whatever happens, both teams deserve great praise and we should really try to avoid the trap of talking as if the finalist is some great failure...but obviously, whoever wins out, there's going to be a lot to talk about, about how they did it.
