It's such a weird trend that most media guys analyzing this draft are saying they would take Holmgren #1 (Givony, Marks, Pelton, Mike Schmitz is on record, Kevin O'Connor has him #1 on his big board, Kyle Mann and Jonathan Tjarks did a whole podcast on why they'd take Chet #1). But there's this consistent report of the Magic having their mind made up about Jabari Smith.
I wish I understood the thought process if it were truly this way. I don't have a problem with picking Smith #1 if you think he's the best player today and tomorrow. What I'm concerned with is if the Magic are going to pick Smith by default because it's the
safe pick. Smith isn't going to fail. He's going to fit in perfectly and contribute to winning immediately. If you're a GM or POBO with a short runway, you may not be inclined to take the risk on Holmgren, who might need some seasoning and you have no precedent for working in the NBA. Presti has the runway and cache to roll the dice on Holmgren. Fair or not, there's a fear associated with Holmgren because there's no precedent to a player like him in the NBA. At the same time, a handful of those players are really talented and help transcend the sport. We're really bad at seeing past our internal bias toward prospects, especially ones we don't have good prior comparisons for. Fans, media, and real decision makers make mistakes all the time. I think we miss on players who don't
look the part, but are clearly really skilled. Luka Doncic, Trae Young, Stephen Curry, CJ McCollum, Joel Embiid (just some examples off the top of players who were skilled but had some sort of physical flag) debates look so silly in retrospect for their drafts.
Personally, I'm not a huge fan of playing it safe this high in the draft. I'd rather swing for the home run than settle for a double. Part of this might be clouded by my own perception of Smith as prospect. I think he has limitations, but I acknowledge he will help us win games next year. At the same time, I don't really see him as someone you can build around. You wait all these years to finally get the #1 pick; you might as well swing for the fences because who knows when we'll be back here. But if the front office is convinced Smith has some Chris Bosh/KG potential that I might be missing, then I'm game. I don't see it myself, but I've been wrong before.
Holmgren is a really skilled player. You don't have to teach him to shoot, dribble, pass, play defense, or finish. He's going to improve his body in the NBA. But if you're worried about his durability, I get it. I just wish that conversation was rooted in something more tangible than simply "just look at him, he's going to break", because we don't know that. You can't predict injury just by looking at someone. It's not like he has Greg Oden or Brandon Roy knees coming out of college. There's so much more that goes into injury risk on a kinesiology level than "he's underweight." What's his gait like? How does he land? How does he absorb/avoid contact? How coordinated and agile is he? How often is he making quick twitch movements?
I've also come around on Banchero. I think he's going to be really good and would consider him over Smith.
If he improves his shooting on the move maybe someday he will be on Bertans level on offense. If he goes number 1 i will put "i know nothing about basketball" in my signature. (or Weltman knows nothing about basketball if he busts
)
