Higher peak: Curry or Bird?

[MyUniBroDavis]

nba discussion has a sort of dichotomy between people who evaluate -ability- ans those that evaluate -results-

and the discussion about outlier seasons fits with that

from a "what actually happened" point of view 2017 and 2020 davis are some absurdly impressive playoff peaks

from a "what do i think this player would do in most situations" ability point of view, it makes sense to see them as outliers

basicslly some people look at what happened and take it as it is

others look at a bigger sample and "smooth out" outliers

that kinda philospphical divide appears here: do yoy evaluate players by what they did or by what they had the ability to do?

What they had the ability to do is fine if you believe a scheme or factor outside their control effected it heavily

Like roster construction, coaching, lack of adjustments, scheme, etc

It theres a divide of, well player X was hot this postseason and he might not do it if we reset time so yeah doesn’t count

Then that’s actually the absolute dumbest thing ever lol

i am actually on the same side here as you

i think i literally went from lurker to commenting cause i disagreed with the arguments diminishing 2009 lebron cause the years before and after were less good

just was presenting both sides of the discussion

Yeah, I do see validity in when someone might have limitations in certain situations if those get played out but saying players aren’t allowed to be on fire or a hot hand =/= a good run is odd

[MyUniBroDavis]

rTS may be harder to separate from the pack in the more modern eras as well, since in the 80s and 90s the top scorers more often had the highest TS whereas now the top have more finishers (as in spot up shooters or garbage men/roll men) there’s also the obvious curry gravity effect that everyone knows about

Is that true though? If we just look at the presented seasons (1984, 1986 and 2017):

2016/17

The number of players in 90th percentile in ppg: 27
The number of players in 90th percentile in both ppg and TS%: 9 (Durant, Thomas, Curry, Lowry, James, KAT, Harden, Kawhi, Beal)
Percentage: 33%

1983/84

The number of players in 90th percentile in ppg: 18
The number of players in 90th percentile in both ppg and TS%: 4 (Dantley, McHale, Vandeweghe, KAJ)
Percentage: 28%

1985/86

The number of players in 90th percentile in ppg: 18
The number of players in 90th percentile in both ppg and TS%: 5 (Dantley, Ruland, King, Vandeweghe, KAJ)
Percentage: 22%

Maybe you have stronger evidences, but just brief look at these seasons suggest that your theory isn't true.

Oh, just as a follow up I remember making that assumption because of 60s data, and I think it does hold true in that regard

1962 and 1967 checked

There are only 70 players so I went with the top 20

Of those 20, 14 were also in the top 20 of ts%

10/20 in 1967

Limiting to top 10 for both has similar results

7/10 in 1962
5/10 in 1967

I’d be curious to see how this trend changed throughout the years, particular with wings in the 2000s, esp ones that didn’t rely on the pick and roll as much

[70sFan]

rTS may be harder to separate from the pack in the more modern eras as well, since in the 80s and 90s the top scorers more often had the highest TS whereas now the top have more finishers (as in spot up shooters or garbage men/roll men) there’s also the obvious curry gravity effect that everyone knows about

Is that true though? If we just look at the presented seasons (1984, 1986 and 2017):

2016/17

The number of players in 90th percentile in ppg: 27
The number of players in 90th percentile in both ppg and TS%: 9 (Durant, Thomas, Curry, Lowry, James, KAT, Harden, Kawhi, Beal)
Percentage: 33%

1983/84

The number of players in 90th percentile in ppg: 18
The number of players in 90th percentile in both ppg and TS%: 4 (Dantley, McHale, Vandeweghe, KAJ)
Percentage: 28%

1985/86

The number of players in 90th percentile in ppg: 18
The number of players in 90th percentile in both ppg and TS%: 5 (Dantley, Ruland, King, Vandeweghe, KAJ)
Percentage: 22%

Maybe you have stronger evidences, but just brief look at these seasons suggest that your theory isn't true.

Oh, just as a follow up I remember making that assumption because of 60s data, and I think it does hold true in that regard

1962 and 1967 checked

There are only 70 players so I went with the top 20

Of those 20, 14 were also in the top 20 of ts%

10/20 in 1967

Limiting to top 10 for both has similar results

7/10 in 1962
5/10 in 1967

I’d be curious to see how this trend changed throughout the years, particular with wings in the 2000s, esp ones that didn’t rely on the pick and roll as much

It's always tough to compare contribution in much smaller league, but if we go with the same method I used for 1980s and 2017:

1961/62

The number of players in 90th percentile in ppg: 7
The number of players in 90th percentile in both ppg and TS%: 3 (Bellamy, Oscar, Wilt)
Percentage: 43%

1966/67

The number of players in 90th percentile in ppg: 8
The number of players in 90th percentile in both ppg and TS%: 3 (Wilt, Oscar, West)
Percentage: 38%

I will try to make such calculation for all NBA seasons, but I think 90th percentile might be too high standard to capture all high volume scorers. 80th is probably too broad, so maybe 85th?

[MyUniBroDavis]

Is that true though? If we just look at the presented seasons (1984, 1986 and 2017):

2016/17

The number of players in 90th percentile in ppg: 27
The number of players in 90th percentile in both ppg and TS%: 9 (Durant, Thomas, Curry, Lowry, James, KAT, Harden, Kawhi, Beal)
Percentage: 33%

1983/84

The number of players in 90th percentile in ppg: 18
The number of players in 90th percentile in both ppg and TS%: 4 (Dantley, McHale, Vandeweghe, KAJ)
Percentage: 28%

1985/86

The number of players in 90th percentile in ppg: 18
The number of players in 90th percentile in both ppg and TS%: 5 (Dantley, Ruland, King, Vandeweghe, KAJ)
Percentage: 22%

Maybe you have stronger evidences, but just brief look at these seasons suggest that your theory isn't true.

Oh, just as a follow up I remember making that assumption because of 60s data, and I think it does hold true in that regard

1962 and 1967 checked

There are only 70 players so I went with the top 20

Of those 20, 14 were also in the top 20 of ts%

10/20 in 1967

Limiting to top 10 for both has similar results

7/10 in 1962
5/10 in 1967

I’d be curious to see how this trend changed throughout the years, particular with wings in the 2000s, esp ones that didn’t rely on the pick and roll as much

It's always tough to compare contribution in much smaller league, but if we go with the same method I used for 1980s and 2017:

1961/62

The number of players in 90th percentile in ppg: 7
The number of players in 90th percentile in both ppg and TS%: 3 (Bellamy, Oscar, Wilt)
Percentage: 43%

1966/67

The number of players in 90th percentile in ppg: 8
The number of players in 90th percentile in both ppg and TS%: 3 (Wilt, Oscar, West)
Percentage: 38%

I will try to make such calculation for all NBA seasons, but I think 90th percentile might be too high standard to capture all high volume scorers. 80th is probably too broad, so maybe 85th?

It’s kind of tough because you would want at least 15 per year I think, larger samples and all that I’d think, but 85-80th would probably be fine

[JordansBulls]

Still Bird. Bird as the Greatest SF is still debateable to most since he won multiple titles for the franchise that drafted him.

[Jaivl]

Still Bird. Bird as the Greatest SF is still debateable to most since he won multiple titles for the franchise that drafted him.

He has absolutely zero case as the greatest SF ever.

Larry Bird - won 3 titles for the team that drafted him, choked and lost multiple times with HCA, wore 33 but never scored more than 33 points per game.
John Havlicek - won 8 titles for the team that drafted him, 8/8 Finals record (better than Jordan), won a title as an all-star SF for a team that had never won with an all-star SF before, scored numerous times above his jersey number.

[Homer38]

Still Bird. Bird as the Greatest SF is still debateable to most since he won multiple titles for the franchise that drafted him.

How many time Bird lost with homecourt advantage?

7?, I lost count....

[tsherkin]

Still Bird. Bird as the Greatest SF is still debateable to most since he won multiple titles for the franchise that drafted him.

He has absolutely zero case as the greatest SF ever.

Larry Bird - won 3 titles for the team that drafted him, choked and lost multiple times with HCA, wore 33 but never scored more than 33 points per game.
John Havlicek - won 8 titles for the team that drafted him, 8/8 Finals record (better than Jordan), won a title as an all-star SF for a team that had never won with an all-star SF before, scored numerous times above his jersey number.

Is that supposed to be a serious post?

[AdagioPace]

Still Bird. Bird as the Greatest SF is still debateable to most since he won multiple titles for the franchise that drafted him.

He has absolutely zero case as the greatest SF ever.

Larry Bird - won 3 titles for the team that drafted him, choked and lost multiple times with HCA, wore 33 but never scored more than 33 points per game.
John Havlicek - won 8 titles for the team that drafted him, 8/8 Finals record (better than Jordan), won a title as an all-star SF for a team that had never won with an all-star SF before, scored numerous times above his jersey number.

fight fire with fire

[Jaivl]

Still Bird. Bird as the Greatest SF is still debateable to most since he won multiple titles for the franchise that drafted him.

He has absolutely zero case as the greatest SF ever.

Larry Bird - won 3 titles for the team that drafted him, choked and lost multiple times with HCA, wore 33 but never scored more than 33 points per game.
John Havlicek - won 8 titles for the team that drafted him, 8/8 Finals record (better than Jordan), won a title as an all-star SF for a team that had never won with an all-star SF before, scored numerous times above his jersey number.

Is that supposed to be a serious post?

Yes. I'm a black belt in JB logic.

[tsherkin]

He has absolutely zero case as the greatest SF ever.

Larry Bird - won 3 titles for the team that drafted him, choked and lost multiple times with HCA, wore 33 but never scored more than 33 points per game.
John Havlicek - won 8 titles for the team that drafted him, 8/8 Finals record (better than Jordan), won a title as an all-star SF for a team that had never won with an all-star SF before, scored numerous times above his jersey number.

Is that supposed to be a serious post?

Yes. I'm a black belt in JB logic.

Okay, so you're doing exactly what I thought you were, very good.