2022 NBA Draft - Prospects Discussion

[Ron Swanson]

With Roddy it's not just the body type, but I'm also not convinced with the shooting sample. 43% from 3 after he shot 19% and 27% his first two collegiate seasons, while his free throws regressed to sub-70%? That's a big red flag for me that your range isn't gonna translate to the NBA line. If the volume was higher I'd be more inclined to believe he's made a legitimate leap there.

[skones]

I just keep coming back to Roddy. His bag just seems super underrated to me. Guy isn't telegraphing his moves, he's very reactionary and smooth when he does it. His off ball passing tells me his spatial awareness is there and the effort level is obviously one of his strengths. He's only going to be available because of his competition level and unique body type, but those that are overlooking him are missing the boat. I just don't see any way he doesn't carve out a long career for himself with underrated upside as a scorer.

I think he can play lighter than he weighed at the combine and unlock another level of athleticism while still being a huge dude. Checks all the boxes for me.

Not many guys with his frame can make it. He'll always be either at a height or speed deficit. Grant Williams is a comp who was able to change his game, but also played against better competition at Tennessee. Roddy is an intriguing prospect, but the odds are against him.

His length more than makes up for the lack of height IMO. Combine that with his strength, and you've got a guy who's more than capable of switching across a number of positions. Even if he has trouble staying in front of lightning quick guards, a simple bump off their line should pay dividends with Giannis roaming on the backside.

I don't see the Grant Williams comp at all outside of being big bodied at 6'5-6'6. Their offensive games are completely different. Williams was a big bodied back to the basket player in college. Roddy has a legitimate skillset for a wing. That's a massive difference between the two. Grant Williams needed to change his game. Roddy has to refine his with more burst and bounce to boot.

[skones]

With Roddy it's not just the body type, but I'm also not convinced with the shooting sample. 43% from 3 after he shot 19% and 27% his first two collegiate seasons, while his free throws regressed to sub-70%? That's a big red flag for me that your range isn't gonna translate to the NBA line. If the volume was higher I'd be more inclined to believe he's made a legitimate leap there.

This is the only concern with him.

[BroncoBuck]

Buy a late 2nd and take Makur Maker. He bought into his role in Sydney (for the former Herd coach). He’s worth a flyer.

[skones]

With Roddy it's not just the body type, but I'm also not convinced with the shooting sample. 43% from 3 after he shot 19% and 27% his first two collegiate seasons, while his free throws regressed to sub-70%? That's a big red flag for me that your range isn't gonna translate to the NBA line. If the volume was higher I'd be more inclined to believe he's made a legitimate leap there.

With THAT being said:

The biggest thing for me is the percentage when you look at the difficulty of his shots. Guy was the offense on that team and he often did it off the bounce. 72 percent at the rim, 50% from the in between (on 115 attempts), and 44% from deep. Off the bounce, fading away, stepping back, he hit them all at an eye-popping level. I can't call that an outlier or lucky as a result. I lean towards legitimate improvement especially when there's a clear trending up in his percentages. If anything, it's the FT% that looks like the one that's a little bit of an outlier.

I think he'll be more than fine in the corner, extended range might take a bit of an adjustment, but I'm confident in his being able to get there.

[SirChurros]

Buy a late 2nd and take Makur Maker. He bought into his role in Sydney (for the former Herd coach). He’s worth a flyer.

I’d rather just sign Thon again.

[German Athens]

With Roddy it's not just the body type, but I'm also not convinced with the shooting sample. 43% from 3 after he shot 19% and 27% his first two collegiate seasons, while his free throws regressed to sub-70%? That's a big red flag for me that your range isn't gonna translate to the NBA line. If the volume was higher I'd be more inclined to believe he's made a legitimate leap there.

With THAT being said:

The biggest thing for me is the percentage when you look at the difficulty of his shots. Guy was the offense on that team and he often did it off the bounce. 72 percent at the rim, 50% from the in between (on 115 attempts), and 44% from deep. Off the bounce, fading away, stepping back, he hit them all at an eye-popping level. I can't call that an outlier or lucky as a result. I lean towards legitimate improvement especially when there's a clear trending up in his percentages. If anything, it's the FT% that looks like the one that's a little bit of an outlier.

I think he'll be more than fine in the corner, extended range might take a bit of an adjustment, but I'm confident in his being able to get there.

How’s his defense? I see the scouting reports say it’s quite good, but I’m having a tough time finding extended tape on that end. That’s my reservation at this time - that I just haven’t seen much footage on that end. In particular, I want to see him guarding the perimeter.

My worry is that if he isn’t a defensive asset, and he’s merely okay, that his unique offensive game would never actually get the chance to be weaponized.

He’s such a unique player. If he can be a grant Williams/Tucker level defender, I think he has a lot more to work with offensively than either of those two.

[Brewhoopfan]

With Roddy it's not just the body type, but I'm also not convinced with the shooting sample. 43% from 3 after he shot 19% and 27% his first two collegiate seasons, while his free throws regressed to sub-70%? That's a big red flag for me that your range isn't gonna translate to the NBA line. If the volume was higher I'd be more inclined to believe he's made a legitimate leap there.

With THAT being said:

The biggest thing for me is the percentage when you look at the difficulty of his shots. Guy was the offense on that team and he often did it off the bounce. 72 percent at the rim, 50% from the in between (on 115 attempts), and 44% from deep. Off the bounce, fading away, stepping back, he hit them all at an eye-popping level. I can't call that an outlier or lucky as a result. I lean towards legitimate improvement especially when there's a clear trending up in his percentages. If anything, it's the FT% that looks like the one that's a little bit of an outlier.

I think he'll be more than fine in the corner, extended range might take a bit of an adjustment, but I'm confident in his being able to get there.

How’s his defense? I see the scouting reports say it’s quite good, but I’m having a tough time finding extended tape on that end. That’s my reservation at this time - that I just haven’t seen much footage on that end. In particular, I want to see him guarding the perimeter.

My worry is that if he isn’t a defensive asset, and he’s merely okay, that his unique offensive game would never actually get the chance to be weaponized.

He’s such a unique player. If he can be a grant Williams/Tucker level defender, I think he has a lot more to work with offensively than either of those two.

Roddy weighed in at the combine at 260. That's after WEEKS of working out for the most important testing of his career. And, yes, I know he tested well athletically, but that's not how basketball works. Let's see if he can still move effectively after 30 minutes of having to tote around 30-40 more pounds than his opponent. Especially for perimeter players, basketball is for athletes who can run the 400 and 800 meter dash, not the discus throwers.

[skones]

How’s his defense? I see the scouting reports say it’s quite good, but I’m having a tough time finding extended tape on that end. That’s my reservation at this time - that I just haven’t seen much footage on that end. In particular, I want to see him guarding the perimeter.

My worry is that if he isn’t a defensive asset, and he’s merely okay, that his unique offensive game would never actually get the chance to be weaponized.

He’s such a unique player. If he can be a grant Williams/Tucker level defender, I think he has a lot more to work with offensively than either of those two.

I think he's going to be a guy that's considered a stout defender but not a lock down guy. Like I said, the spatial awareness is there, we don't have to worry about the effort level. Those guys don't become un-usuable on the defensive end when you realize how strong he is coupled with his length.

[Ron Swanson]

Yeah I think some are really downplaying how much extra weight Roddy is carrying around. If he were actually built like Grant Williams or PJ, then I'd have very little worries about his conditioning (he'd also probably be getting mocked more consistently in the 1st round). But he's not, he has a more similar physical profile to Rashan Gary (defensive end for the Packers) than he does with either of those guys. If we're looking for that small-ball switchable front court archetype, he's much further down on the list for me.

Tier 1: Eason

Tier 2: Sochan, Liddell

Tier 3: Roddy, Justin Lewis, Jaylin Williams

[skones]

Yeah I think some are really downplaying how much extra weight Roddy is carrying around. If he were actually built like Grant Williams or PJ, then I'd have very little worries about his conditioning (he'd also probably be getting mocked more consistently in the 1st round). But he's not, he has a more similar physical profile to Rashan Gary (defensive end for the Packers) than he does with either of those guys. If we're looking for that small-ball switchable front court archetype, he's much further down on the list for me.

Tier 1: Eason

Tier 2: Sochan, Liddell

Tier 3: Roddy, Justin Lewis, Jaylin Williams

He's carrying that weight and he's much quicker and lighter on his feet than either Williams or PJ IMO. 33 minutes a night, doing it on both ends, with the energy level he does it and we're questioning his conditioning? When he's not going to be playing that much on day 1?

[Ron Swanson]

Yeah I think some are really downplaying how much extra weight Roddy is carrying around. If he were actually built like Grant Williams or PJ, then I'd have very little worries about his conditioning (he'd also probably be getting mocked more consistently in the 1st round). But he's not, he has a more similar physical profile to Rashan Gary (defensive end for the Packers) than he does with either of those guys. If we're looking for that small-ball switchable front court archetype, he's much further down on the list for me.

Tier 1: Eason

Tier 2: Sochan, Liddell

Tier 3: Roddy, Justin Lewis, Jaylin Williams

He's carrying that weight and he's much quicker and lighter on his feet than either Williams or PJ IMO. 33 minutes a night, doing it on both ends, with the energy level he does it and we're questioning his conditioning? When he's not going to be playing that much on day 1?

I mean, when a guy's going from the Mountain West Conference to competing against NBA athletes....yes? I'm trying to find guys with his height/weight ratio that actually had long, productive careers in recent league history and I'm honestly at a loss for many examples. I guess Barkley would be the most extreme example of this (he was listed around 250), but you'd almost have to be convinced that he's like, a 99th percentile athlete in order to not be concerned that his weight is gonna affect his ability to switch and guard small.

[Badgerlander]

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Ooo me likely the Jaden Hardy idea

[Badgerlander]

https://hoopshype.com/lists/nba-draft-workout-tracker-where-are-prospects-going/

23 Jaden Hardy SG G League Ignite 02

42 Josh Minott SF Memphis Fr

59 Dominick Barlow PF Overtime Elite 03

74 Jordan Hall SF St. Joseph's So

NR Teddy Allen SG New Mexico St Jr

NR Justin Bean SF Utah State Sr

NR Kofi Cockburn C Illinois Jr

NR Brad Davison SG Wisconsin Sr

NR Akoldah Gak PF Illawarra (NBL) 02

NR Hunter Maldonado SG Wyoming Sr

NR Trey McGowens SG Nebraska Jr

NR Silvio De Sousa PF Chattanooga Sr

NR Kerwin Walton SF North Carolina So

NR Lucas Williamson SG Loyola Chicago Sr

NR Jalen Wilson SF Kansas So

[Mr Roboto]

I like Tyrese Martin from UCONN, he is a dog on defense and shoots it well from 3 point range. Probably a mid second round guy who at 23 might be ready right away like Brogdan.

[skones]

Yeah I think some are really downplaying how much extra weight Roddy is carrying around. If he were actually built like Grant Williams or PJ, then I'd have very little worries about his conditioning (he'd also probably be getting mocked more consistently in the 1st round). But he's not, he has a more similar physical profile to Rashan Gary (defensive end for the Packers) than he does with either of those guys. If we're looking for that small-ball switchable front court archetype, he's much further down on the list for me.

Tier 1: Eason

Tier 2: Sochan, Liddell

Tier 3: Roddy, Justin Lewis, Jaylin Williams

He's carrying that weight and he's much quicker and lighter on his feet than either Williams or PJ IMO. 33 minutes a night, doing it on both ends, with the energy level he does it and we're questioning his conditioning? When he's not going to be playing that much on day 1?

I mean, when a guy's going from the Mountain West Conference to competing against NBA athletes....yes? I'm trying to find guys with his height/weight ratio that actually had long, productive careers in recent league history and I'm honestly at a loss for many examples. I guess Barkley would be the most extreme example of this (he was listed around 250), but you'd almost have to be convinced that he's like, a 99th percentile athlete in order to not be concerned that his weight is gonna affect his ability to switch and guard small.

The guy plays his ass off for 32 minutes and he's just going to get more tired when he moves to the NBA? That's something I'm going to sell because I don't think it has a whole lot of credence to it. You're doing nothing but assuming conditioning level based on a way a guy looks instead of looking at his actual play. You spent the majority of this post setting up a shifted goalpost from conditioning to his weight affecting his ability to switch.

There's a lot of irony in mentioning Barkley (ahem, a freak) when saying you'd have to be convinced that he's a 99th percentile athlete, while you're struggling to find a body comp for him, going so far as to mention a player that was drafted 38 years ago. Sometimes the most obvious answer IS the answer. 6'6, 260 lbs, 7 foot wingspan, 36 inch vert, fluidity, wiggle. That IS freak type stuff. That IS 99th percentile.

[SirChurros]

Jaden Hardy makes a lot of sense. I also think he's going to be really good.

[jakecronus8]

If you squint really hard you can see an OJ Mayo/OKC Harden hybrid

Watch on YouTube

[emunney]

Hardy scares me because he seems like the classic early bloomer who crashes back to earth once his physical tools are ordinary among his peers. Which kind of seems like what happened in the G League.

[machu46]

Hardy scares me because he seems like the classic early bloomer who crashes back to earth once his physical tools are ordinary among his peers. Which kind of seems like what happened in the G League.

His physical tools are 100% ordinary. I do at least think he’s a good ball handler and shooter so it might not totally matter but he seems like he’ll struggle if he’s not knocking down difficult step back 3’s.


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